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Who defaults during COVID-19? evidence from local lockdown restrictions 谁在COVID-19期间违约？来自当地封锁限制的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112899
Stefano Cosma , Timothy King , Daniela Pennetta
{"title":"Who defaults during COVID-19? evidence from local lockdown restrictions","authors":"Stefano Cosma ,&nbsp;Timothy King ,&nbsp;Daniela Pennetta","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine whether geographically heterogeneous COVID-19 lockdown restrictions affected household credit risk using a proprietary dataset of over 42,000 personal loans from an Italian financial institution. Exploiting local variation in the intensity of local lockdown restrictions, we find that stricter local restrictions significantly increased the likelihood of borrower default. The effect is heterogeneous across borrower characteristics, being stronger even among high-credit-score borrowers and attenuated for homeowners. Our results are robust to alternative specifications, including geographic exclusions of metropolitan areas. Taken together, our findings show that localized public health interventions had meaningful and uneven financial consequences, with implications for targeted credit risk and social protection policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112899"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A copula-quantile density approach to affiliated private value auctions 关联私人价值拍卖的copula-分位数密度方法
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112837
Hassan Doosti
{"title":"A copula-quantile density approach to affiliated private value auctions","authors":"Hassan Doosti","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112837","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112837","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a tractable semiparametric framework for estimating affiliated private value (APV) models in first-price sealed-bid auctions by combining copula-based dependence modeling with quantile density function (QDF) methods. Building on the identification results of Li, Perrigne, and Vuong (2002), we propose a two-stage estimator that (i) uses nonparametric QDF methods (Doosti et al., 2025) to estimate marginal distributions, achieving superior boundary performance, and (ii) employs parametric Archimedean copulas to model affiliation, ensuring computational tractability while respecting the equilibrium structure. Our approach decomposes the inverse bid function into an affiliation component (copula multiplier <span><math><mrow><mi>ψ</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>u</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>) and a marginal component (quantile density <span><math><mrow><mi>q</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>u</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>), providing both theoretical insights and practical advantages. We extend this framework by developing a fully nonparametric estimator of the copula multiplier, enabling specification tests for parametric copula assumptions. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our estimators substantially outperform existing methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112837"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146049114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empirical evidence on the U.S. monetary–fiscal policy mix 美国货币-财政政策组合的实证证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112858
Emiliano A. Carlevaro , Qazi Haque , Leandro M. Magnusson
{"title":"Empirical evidence on the U.S. monetary–fiscal policy mix","authors":"Emiliano A. Carlevaro ,&nbsp;Qazi Haque ,&nbsp;Leandro M. Magnusson","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112858","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper revisits the U.S. fiscal-monetary policy mix using econometric methods that are robust to weak identification and sensitive to structural changes. We find that the pre-Volcker period was predominantly characterised by a passive monetary-passive fiscal regime, consistent with indeterminacy and the presence of self-fulfilling inflationary expectations. In contrast, the post-Volcker period exhibits strong evidence of an active monetary-passive fiscal regime, reflecting greater inflation control and fiscal discipline.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112858"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research grants and independent scientific contributions: Evidence from authorship position 研究经费和独立科学贡献：来自作者地位的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112862
Matěj Bajgar , Suren Karapetyan
{"title":"Research grants and independent scientific contributions: Evidence from authorship position","authors":"Matěj Bajgar ,&nbsp;Suren Karapetyan","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112862","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112862","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine whether competitive research grants generate independent research by the funded investigator. We distinguish first- and last-author publications—indicating leading contribution in biomedical research—from total output. Using data on Czech medical research grants awarded between 2015 and 2019, we apply a regression discontinuity design around the funding cutoff. Grants increase total publications by 3.1 papers (22%). First- and last-author publications increase by 59% and 41% respectively—substantially exceeding the total effect. These gains extend to high-tier journals and to citations. Effects are strongest for female and less senior investigators, consistent with grants mattering most when funding is constrained.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112862"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The incompatibility of the Condorcet winner and loser criteria with positive involvement and resolvability 孔多塞赢家和输家标准与积极参与和可解决性的不兼容性
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112868
Wesley H. Holliday
{"title":"The incompatibility of the Condorcet winner and loser criteria with positive involvement and resolvability","authors":"Wesley H. Holliday","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We prove that there is no preferential voting method satisfying the Condorcet winner and loser criteria, positive involvement (if a candidate <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> wins in an initial preference profile, then adding a voter who ranks <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> uniquely first cannot cause <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> to lose), and <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span>-voter resolvability (if <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> initially ties for winning, then <span><math><mi>x</mi></math></span> can be made the unique winner by adding some set of up to <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> voters). This impossibility theorem holds for any positive integer <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span>. It also holds if either the Condorcet loser criterion is replaced by independence of clones or positive involvement is replaced by negative involvement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112868"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An improved density approximation for the Zivot–Andrews test 改进的密度近似Zivot-Andrews测试
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112833
Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti
{"title":"An improved density approximation for the Zivot–Andrews test","authors":"Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The unit-root test by Zivot and Andrews(1992) for series with possible structural breaks has been the industry standard for over 30 years. All available software reports the critical values presented in the original article, which were computed with the technology available at the time.</div><div>By a much larger simulation exercise, the relevant distributions are approximated by Gaussian mixtures. This makes the computation of <span><math><mi>p</mi></math></span>-values straightforward and handles finite-sample issues very naturally.</div><div>We show that the discrepancies between the original critical values and ours are relatively minor, but not negligible in some cases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112833"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Carbon emission risk and cross-asset pricing in commodity markets 商品市场中的碳排放风险与交叉资产定价
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112854
Mingfa Ding , Ai Jun Hou , Sandy Suardi , Caihong Xu
{"title":"Carbon emission risk and cross-asset pricing in commodity markets","authors":"Mingfa Ding ,&nbsp;Ai Jun Hou ,&nbsp;Sandy Suardi ,&nbsp;Caihong Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112854","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112854","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether carbon emission risk, widely documented in equity markets, is also priced in Chinese commodity markets. Using firm-level emission data and commodity futures from 2016 to 2021, we construct an equity-based high-minus-low (HML) carbon factor. The HML factor earns a significant monthly premium of 0.7% in the cross-section of commodity returns, while traditional commodity and macroeconomic factors show limited explanatory power. The results provide the first evidence of within-economy cross-asset transmission of carbon risk, underscoring the rising role of environmental risk in commodity pricing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112854"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sailing towards sustainability: The effect of Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zones on corporate green investment 迈向可持续发展：海洋经济发展示范区对企业绿色投资的影响
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112877
Yong Wang , Qingchuan Yi , Tianquan Jin
{"title":"Sailing towards sustainability: The effect of Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zones on corporate green investment","authors":"Yong Wang ,&nbsp;Qingchuan Yi ,&nbsp;Tianquan Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112877","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112877","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses the establishment of Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zones (MEDDZs) as a quasi-natural experiment and applies the DID method to investigate the impact of this policy on corporate green investment in China. This paper finds that the establishment of MEDDZs can promote corporate green investment, through expanding exports, strengthening environmental regulations, and alleviating financing constraints. Green finance and digital infrastructure amplify this effect. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned and heavy-polluting enterprises. This study helps to understand how to pursue green transformation while expanding marine economy and provides guidance for designing and evaluating marine policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112877"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determining the number of breaks in high-dimensional factor models with interval-valued data 确定具有区间值数据的高维因子模型中的断裂数
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112869
Yan Guo , Jing Chen , Jianhong Wu
{"title":"Determining the number of breaks in high-dimensional factor models with interval-valued data","authors":"Yan Guo ,&nbsp;Jing Chen ,&nbsp;Jianhong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper considers a high-dimensional interval-valued data factor model with potential structural changes. We verify that the number of factors is usually overestimated in the case with structural changes and then propose an estimator for the number of breaks by leveraging the finding. We establish the consistency of this estimator under certain conditions. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed estimation procedure exhibits desired finite sample performance. In addition, an empirical application to S&amp;P 100 stock return data further demonstrates the practical usefulness of the proposed method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112869"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adoption–usage demand: A discrete–continuous microfoundation 采用-使用需求：一个离散-连续的微基础
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112894
Régis Y. Chenavaz , Antonin Chenavaz
{"title":"Adoption–usage demand: A discrete–continuous microfoundation","authors":"Régis Y. Chenavaz ,&nbsp;Antonin Chenavaz","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a microfounded discrete–continuous demand model that couples a logit participation decision with Cobb–Douglas usage conditional on purchase. The structure delivers closed-form expressions for individual demand, adoption probabilities, and welfare, providing a normative foundation for the practice of multiplying incidence and conditional quantity equations. A transparent elasticity decomposition separates usage from adoption responses, yields monotone comparative statics, and preserves random-utility log-sum welfare. Extensions include multi-product adoption with multinomial logit shares.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112894"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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