{"title":"Public data openness and trade credit: Evidence from China","authors":"Xiao Li, Yuan Li, Xiaoxu Yu, Chun Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting the setting of public data openness in China, we demonstrate a significant trade credit provision increase following the data platforms’ introduction. Our mechanism tests confirm that the rise is driven by enhanced suppliers’ willingness and capability. We document that suppliers with more substantial incentives to offer trade credit before establishing the data platforms experience a more pronounced increase in trade credit usage. Additionally, we examine the economic consequences of public data openness, demonstrating that it not only strengthens supply chain financing but also generates spillover benefits. The impact of public data openness on trade credit provision extends to firm sales, productivity, and supply chain efficiency, resulting in significant increases in revenues and total factor productivity, and leading to significant decreases in interest expense ratio and receivable turnover days. Our results reveal that public data openness substantially improves financial conditions and fosters growth throughout the supply chain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 101636"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144510953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Strategic implications of corporate disclosure via Twitter","authors":"Devendra Kale , Vikram Nanda , Anin Rupp","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the information and strategic aspects of corporate tweets. Despite limits on message length, tweets stimulate information acquisition by investors, as indicated by post-tweet downloads from the SEC-EDGAR website. Corporations appear to be effective at leveraging tweets to enhance their information environment. Specifically, tweets are associated with reduction in firms’ earnings surprise and stock return volatility. There is a decrease in negative skewness of stock returns, suggesting a more uniform release of favorable and unfavorable news, especially in high litigation industries. These effects are more evident when the CEO has greater equity incentives and when firms are smaller and less visible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 101635"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144490873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jing-Zhi Huang , Peipei Li , Ying Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiangkun Yao , Licheng Zhang
{"title":"Do investors reach for yield? Evidence from corporate bond mutual fund flows","authors":"Jing-Zhi Huang , Peipei Li , Ying Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiangkun Yao , Licheng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101625","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101625","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the reaching-for-yield behavior of corporate bond mutual fund investors by analyzing how fund flows respond to changes in interest rates. We find that investment-grade (IG) bond funds experience increased inflows following lower interest rates, while high-yield (HY) bond funds show no significant response. Bond fund investors tend to seek higher yields during periods of lower interest rates by assuming greater interest rate risk through the purchase of longer-maturity IG funds, rather than by taking on additional credit risk. Our findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns and alternative explanations—including investors’ flight-to-safety behavior, liquidity considerations, and fund managers’ skill—indicating that fund flows are primarily driven by investors’ reaching-for-yield behavior in response to expansionary monetary policy. Overall, this study advances the understanding of monetary policy transmission and its implications for financial stability in the corporate bond market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 101625"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144500851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tao Zhang , Ke Tang , Taoxiong Liu , Tingfeng Jiang
{"title":"High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China","authors":"Tao Zhang , Ke Tang , Taoxiong Liu , Tingfeng Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101626","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101626","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the digital era, the information value of online prices, characterized by weak price stickiness and high sensitivity to economic shocks, deserves more attention. This paper integrates the high-frequency online inflation rate into the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model to explore its relationship with the term structure of interest rates. The empirical results show that the weekly online inflation significantly predicts the yield curve, especially the slope factor, whereas the monthly official inflation cannot predict the yield curve and is instead predicted by the yield curve factors. The mechanism analysis reveals that, due to low price stickiness, online inflation is more sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations and better reflects money market liquidity, thereby having significant predictive power for short-term interest rates and the slope factor. Specifically, online inflation for non-durable goods and on weekdays shows stronger predictive power for the slope factor. The heterogeneity in price stickiness across these categories explains the varying impacts on the yield curve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 101626"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Credit distortions in Japanese momentum","authors":"Sharon Y. Ross","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Persistent credit distortions have warped equity returns in Japan, where decades of subsidized bank credit to “zombie firms” suppressed momentum premiums. Controlling for zombies revives Japan’s momentum effect: momentum earns significant alpha after adjusting for zombies, and momentum’s expected return and Sharpe ratio triple. The zombie-adjusted factor commands a positive price of risk, becomes unspanned by other factors, and aligns more closely with international patterns. Why? Zombies depend on forbearance from their banks, and zombie losers’ outsized betas to bank returns depress momentum. Analysis of syndicated loan data confirms that firms with forbearance-prone lenders drive Japan’s persistently low momentum returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101615"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144131312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unlocking efficiency: How capital market liberalization shapes firm productivity","authors":"Lu Jolly Zhou , Nan Deng , Chenchen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101624","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101624","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the granular impact of capital market liberalization on the real economy, utilizing the distinctive context of the Chinese market as a quasi-natural experimental setting. Our analysis demonstrates that capital market liberalization positively influences firm-level productivity. We further explore the mechanisms and provide empirical evidence that capital market liberalization improves asset pricing efficiency by enhancing informed trading effectiveness and rectifying stock mispricing. It also optimizes corporate governance from four distinct perspectives: mitigating agency costs, augmenting operational profitability, bolstering labor productivity, and enhancing transparency. These factors collectively contribute to improved productivity at the firm level, confirming the granular impact of financial liberalization in the product market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101624"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144098664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A system of time-varying models for predictive regressions","authors":"Deshui Yu , Yayi Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a system of time-varying models for predictive regressions, where a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) process is introduced to model the dynamics of the predictors and a linear control function approach is used to improve the estimation efficiency. We employ a profile likelihood estimation method to estimate both constant and time-varying coefficients and propose a hypothesis test to examine the parameter stability. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and test statistics accordingly. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed methods work well in finite samples. Empirically, the TV-AR process effectively approximates the time-series behavior of a broad set of potential predictors. Furthermore, we reject the stability assumption of predictive models for more than half of these predictors. Finally, the linear projection method not only improves estimator efficiency but also enhances out-of-sample forecasting performance, leading to significant utility gains in forecasting experiments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101622"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143937810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A robust latent factor model for high-dimensional portfolio selection","authors":"Fangquan Shi , Lianjie Shu , Xinhua Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101623","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101623","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Portfolio selection, faced with large volatile data sets of strongly correlated asset returns, is prone to unstable portfolio weights and serious estimation error. To attenuate this problem, our work proposes a new latent factor model equipped with both a suitable robust estimator to deal with cellwise data contamination and a diagonally-dominant (DD) covariance structure to account for cross-sectional dependence among residual returns. The proposed robust DD model is found to compare favorably with various competitors from the literature in terms of out-of-sample portfolio performance across real-world data sets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"83 ","pages":"Article 101623"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Portfolio optimization with estimation errors—A robust linear regression approach","authors":"Yilin Du , Wenfeng He , Xiaoling Mei","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Covariance and precision matrices of asset returns are unknown in practice and must be estimated in minimum variance portfolio optimizations. Although a variety of estimators have been proposed that give better out-of-sample performance than the sample covariance matrix, they nevertheless contain estimation error of the type that is most likely to disrupt the optimizer. In this study, we propose a robust optimization framework to tackle the estimation error issue. Rather than the sample covariance matrix, as is the case with the existing approaches, our framework focuses on the row sums of estimates of the precision matrix, which can greatly minimize the number of unknown parameters. A robust linear regression framework is developed to tackle the estimate error by first rewriting the portfolio optimization as a least-squares regression model. Furthermore, our results on both simulated and empirical data reveal that the suggested robust portfolios are more stable and perform better out-of-sample than existing estimators in general.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101619"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The role of macro-finance factors in predicting stock market volatility: A latent threshold dynamic model","authors":"John M. Maheu , Azam Shamsi Zamenjani","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Measuring, modeling, and forecasting volatility are of great importance in financial applications such as asset pricing, portfolio management, and risk management. In this paper, we investigate predictability of stock market volatility by macro-finance variables in a dynamic regression framework using latent thresholding. The latent threshold models allow data-driven shrinkage of regression coefficients by collapsing them to zero for irrelevant predictor variables and allowing for time-varying nonzero coefficients when supported by the data. This is a parsimonious framework which selects what potential predictor variables should be included in the regressions and when. We extend this model to allow for stochastic volatility for realized volatility innovations and discuss Bayesian estimation methods. We apply the models to monthly S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 volatility and find that using macro-finance variables in volatility forecasts enhances model performance statistically and economically, particularly when we allow for dynamic inclusion/exclusion of these variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101620"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144072372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}