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Journal of Empirical Finance最新文献

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Implied local volatility models
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101567
Chen Xu Li , Chenxu Li , Chun Li
{"title":"Implied local volatility models","authors":"Chen Xu Li ,&nbsp;Chenxu Li ,&nbsp;Chun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes data-driven “implied local volatility models” that are designed to fit the observed level, slope, convexity, and term-structure slope of implied volatility surface at any maturity and strike. The method of construction hinges on the Taylor structure of implied volatility under generic local volatility models and the formula of Dupire (1994). An empirical application to the S&amp;P 500 index options data validates the stable performance of our method in and out of sample and triggers several economic interpretations before, during, and in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic. The flexibility of our method is further consolidated by the case study on fitting (ultra) short-maturity implied volatilities and concave implied volatility curves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 101567"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the performance of volatility-managed equity factors — International and further evidence 波动率管理股票因子的表现--国际证据和进一步证据
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101560
Patrick Schwarz
{"title":"On the performance of volatility-managed equity factors — International and further evidence","authors":"Patrick Schwarz","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the performance of nine (downside) volatility-managed equity factors before and after considering transaction costs in 45 international equity markets. My results suggest that volatility management is most promising for market, value, profitability, and especially momentum portfolios. The performance of volatility-managed market and value portfolios can be further enhanced by applying downside volatility as a scaling factor. Nevertheless, only the managed market and momentum strategies are partially robust to transaction cost suggesting that the persistence of abnormal returns can largely be explained by the associated transaction costs. Cross-country analysis suggests that the slow trading hypothesis is partially able to explain cross-country performance differences of volatility-managed value and momentum portfolios. Finally, performance decomposition analysis reveals additional suggestive evidence in support of the slow trading hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 101560"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
CEO neuroticism and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from CEOs’ tweets 首席执行官的神经质与公司现金持有量：来自首席执行官推文的证据
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101566
Dien Giau Bui , Robin K. Chou , Chih-Yung Lin , Chien-Lin Lu
{"title":"CEO neuroticism and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from CEOs’ tweets","authors":"Dien Giau Bui ,&nbsp;Robin K. Chou ,&nbsp;Chih-Yung Lin ,&nbsp;Chien-Lin Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effects of CEO neuroticism on corporate policies for cash holdings. After hand collecting tweets by CEOs to measure their neuroticism, we find that firms with relatively neurotic CEOs hold more cash than other firms. This positive effect is more pronounced when the firm has a higher precautionary motive to hold cash. The cash held by firms with neurotic CEOs leads to higher firm values and lower credit risks. Overall, neurotic CEOs maintain more conservative corporate policies on holding cash, resulting in a lower cost of financial distress and an improvement in the value of firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"80 ","pages":"Article 101566"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Jump tail risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns 跳跃尾部风险暴露与股票收益截面
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101565
Lykourgos Alexiou , Leonidas S. Rompolis
{"title":"Jump tail risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns","authors":"Lykourgos Alexiou ,&nbsp;Leonidas S. Rompolis","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce a new jump tail risk measure retrieved from option prices. We examine the cross-sectional pricing of stocks according to their sensitivities to jump tail risk. We find a negative market price of jump tail risk. A high-low portfolio sorted by jump tail risk betas delivers a statistically and economically significant negative premium of -9.95% per year. Risk-adjusted returns are also negative and highly significant. We document that the negative jump tail risk premium is mainly driven by its downside jump tail risk component. On the contrary, the premium of the high-low portfolio sorted by upside jump tail risk betas is insignificant. The negative premium of downside jump tail risk is significant when controlling for various risk factor loadings and firm characteristics, and remains strong for large firms. Our results carry over to a predictive setting, in which we compare subsequent realized returns of the quintile portfolios sorted by downside jump tail risk betas estimated over the previous period.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101565"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142653871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High-frequency realized stochastic volatility model 高频实现随机波动模型
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101559
Toshiaki Watanabe , Jouchi Nakajima
{"title":"High-frequency realized stochastic volatility model","authors":"Toshiaki Watanabe ,&nbsp;Jouchi Nakajima","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A new high-frequency realized stochastic volatility model is proposed. Apart from the standard daily-frequency stochastic volatility model, the high-frequency stochastic volatility model is fit to intraday returns by extensively incorporating intraday volatility patterns. The daily realized volatility calculated using intraday returns is incorporated into the high-frequency stochastic volatility model by considering the bias in the daily realized volatility caused by microstructure noise. The volatility of intraday returns is assumed to consist of the autoregressive process, the seasonal component of the intraday volatility pattern, and the announcement component responding to macroeconomic announcements. A Bayesian method via Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed for the analysis of the proposed model. The empirical analysis using the 5-minute returns of E-mini S&amp;P 500 futures provides evidence that our high-frequency realized stochastic volatility model improves in-sample model fit and volatility forecasting over the high-frequency stochastic volatility model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101559"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142653723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trading volume shares and market quality: Pre- and post- zero commissions 交易量份额和市场质量：零佣金前和零佣金后
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101564
Pankaj K. Jain , Suchismita Mishra , Shawn M. O'Donoghue , Le Zhao
{"title":"Trading volume shares and market quality: Pre- and post- zero commissions","authors":"Pankaj K. Jain ,&nbsp;Suchismita Mishra ,&nbsp;Shawn M. O'Donoghue ,&nbsp;Le Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After the adoption of zero-commissions by major brokers, they increasingly route orders to wholesale market makers to possibly earn payment for order flow given the loss of commissions. Retail investors assets held by zero-commission and commission-charging brokers increase 7 % and decrease 9 %, respectively. Retail investors earn less price improvement per share and submit more orders and smaller orders. Effective spreads decline because retail limit prices are increasingly posted within the bid-ask spread. Intraday volatility increases and price impact falls, as orders become more uninformed, while realized spreads remain unchanged.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101564"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models 宏观金融期限结构模型的时变方差分解
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101563
Anne Lundgaard Hansen
{"title":"Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models","authors":"Anne Lundgaard Hansen","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies time-series patterns in the contribution of macroeconomic shocks to the variation in U.S. Treasury bond yields. I consider a term structure model with time-varying conditional volatility, which implies time variation in the decomposition of forecast error variances. Based on the model, I show that the macroeconomic contribution to the variation in short-term yields has increased since the 1970s. A similar pattern characterizes the variation in the expectations on future interest rates. This trend is not reflected in long-term yields because macroeconomic shocks drive negative correlations between short-rate expectations and term premia. Finally, I show that accounting for time-varying volatility is important even for estimating the average macroeconomic contribution to yield curve volatility over a fixed sample.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101563"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Technological shocks and stock market volatility over a century 一个世纪以来的技术冲击和股市波动
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101561
Afees A. Salisu , Riza Demirer , Rangan Gupta
{"title":"Technological shocks and stock market volatility over a century","authors":"Afees A. Salisu ,&nbsp;Riza Demirer ,&nbsp;Rangan Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides a novel perspective on the innovation-stock market nexus by examining the predictive relationship between technological shocks and stock market volatility using data over a period of more than 140 years. Utilizing annual patent data for the U.S. and a large set of economies to create proxies for local and global technological shocks and a mixed-sampling data (MIDAS) framework, we present robust evidence that technological shocks capture significant predictive information regarding future realizations of stock market volatility, both in- and out-of-sample and at both the short and long forecast horizons. Further economic analysis shows that investment portfolios created by the volatility forecasts obtained from the forecasting models that incorporate technological shocks as predictors in volatility models experience significantly lower return volatility in the out-of-sample horizons, which in turn helps to improve the risk-return profile of those portfolios. Our findings present a novel take on the nexus between technological innovations and stock market dynamics and pave the way for several interesting avenues for future research regarding the role of technological innovations on asset pricing tests and portfolio models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101561"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142571895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market? 公司层面的政治风险是否已在公司债券市场上定价？
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101562
Luis Ceballos , Vanja Piljak , Laurens Swinkels
{"title":"Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?","authors":"Luis Ceballos ,&nbsp;Vanja Piljak ,&nbsp;Laurens Swinkels","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate whether political risk is priced in the cross-section of corporate bond returns by using a text-based measure of firm-level political risk. We document a positive and significant political risk premium after controlling for bond and firm characteristics, conventional risk factors, and exposure to aggregate economic policy uncertainty. Bonds with higher political and credit risk, as well as smaller, more illiquid, and longer maturity corporate bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium. Time-series analysis indicates that monetary policy shocks and common shocks in the equity and bond market exhibit a statistically significant and positive association with the political risk premium. Our findings reveal the importance of idiosyncratic political risk beyond common risk factors and aggregate economic policy uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101562"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142571894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are stablecoins the money market mutual funds of the future? 稳定币是未来的货币市场共同基金吗？
IF 2.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Empirical Finance Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101557
Nico Oefele, Dirk G. Baur, Lee A. Smales
{"title":"Are stablecoins the money market mutual funds of the future?","authors":"Nico Oefele,&nbsp;Dirk G. Baur,&nbsp;Lee A. Smales","doi":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper is the first to provide a comprehensive comparison of two financial instruments: stablecoins and money market mutual funds (MMFs). We observe similar reserve asset backing for fiat reserve backed (FRB) stablecoins and MMFs, similar importance of sponsor support, and the same negative association between macroeconomic indicators and peg deviations. Both instruments serve as short-term facilities for investors to park funds and their primary market microstructure is similar. However, FRB stablecoins exhibit larger dispersions from the dollar peg, significantly higher volatility, and a lack of transparency in their market infrastructure. Larger FRB stablecoins show reduced volatility compared to their smaller counterparts, with peg deviation drivers more closely resembling those of MMFs. We conclude that FRB stablecoins demonstrate remarkable similarities to MMFs and have the potential to become the MMFs of the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15704,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Empirical Finance","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101557"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142653724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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