评论:“Fisher-Schultz讲座:随机实验中异质治疗效果的通用机器学习推断,在印度的免疫应用”,作者:Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo和Iván Fernández-Val

IF 7.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI:10.3982/ECTA22261
Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了Chernozhukov、Demirer、Duflo和Fernandez-Val引入的分离样本稳健推理(SSRI)方法,用于量化机器学习(ML)模型产生的异质治疗效果估计中的不确定性。虽然SSRI适当地解释了由于样本分裂引起的额外可变性,但它的计算成本在复杂的ML模型中变得令人望而却步。我们提出了一种基于随机化推理(RI)的替代方法,该方法保留了SSRI的广泛适用性,同时消除了重复样本分割的需要。利用交叉拟合和基于设计的推理,RI过程产生有效的置信区间,大大减少了计算负担。仿真研究表明,在扩展到更大的应用程序和更复杂的设置时,RI方法保留了SSRI的统计效率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fernández-Val

We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad applicability of SSRI while eliminating the need for repeated sample splitting. Leveraging cross-fitting and design-based inference, the RI procedure yields valid confidence intervals with substantially reduced computational burden. Simulation studies demonstrate that the RI method preserves the statistical efficiency of SSRI while scaling to much larger applications and more complex settings.

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来源期刊
Econometrica
Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
3.30%
发文量
75
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.
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