{"title":"评论:“Fisher-Schultz讲座:随机实验中异质治疗效果的通用机器学习推断,在印度的免疫应用”,作者:Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo和Iván Fernández-Val","authors":"Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22261","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad applicability of SSRI while eliminating the need for repeated sample splitting. Leveraging cross-fitting and design-based inference, the RI procedure yields valid confidence intervals with substantially reduced computational burden. Simulation studies demonstrate that the RI method preserves the statistical efficiency of SSRI while scaling to much larger applications and more complex settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1165-1170"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fernández-Val\",\"authors\":\"Kosuke Imai, Michael Lingzhi Li\",\"doi\":\"10.3982/ECTA22261\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad applicability of SSRI while eliminating the need for repeated sample splitting. Leveraging cross-fitting and design-based inference, the RI procedure yields valid confidence intervals with substantially reduced computational burden. Simulation studies demonstrate that the RI method preserves the statistical efficiency of SSRI while scaling to much larger applications and more complex settings.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50556,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Econometrica\",\"volume\":\"93 4\",\"pages\":\"1165-1170\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Econometrica\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3982/ECTA22261\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometrica","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3982/ECTA22261","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fernández-Val
We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad applicability of SSRI while eliminating the need for repeated sample splitting. Leveraging cross-fitting and design-based inference, the RI procedure yields valid confidence intervals with substantially reduced computational burden. Simulation studies demonstrate that the RI method preserves the statistical efficiency of SSRI while scaling to much larger applications and more complex settings.
期刊介绍:
Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics.
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