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The Complexity of Multidimensional Learning in Agriculture 农业多维学习的复杂性
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22974
Rachid Laajaj, Karen Macours
{"title":"The Complexity of Multidimensional Learning in Agriculture","authors":"Rachid Laajaj,&nbsp;Karen Macours","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22974","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA22974","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Studies on agricultural technology adoption often focus on one input, practice, or package, which is analytically useful, but may overlook the complexities involved with multidimensional learning needed for a lot of agricultural decisions. In Kenya, we study farmers' dynamic learning (from oneself and others) and adoption decisions over six seasons after randomly inviting them to participate in agronomic research trials, comparing different combinations of inputs during three consecutive seasons. As a response to the trials, adoption increases steadily despite the absence of positive profits multiple seasons after exposure to the trials. Know-how increases rapidly and faster for high skill farmers who experiment the most, at the cost of making new mistakes. The findings are consistent with a theoretical model with multidimensionality of input and practice decisions and differential learning from one's own experience by skills, where complementarities imply that adoption of an input requires finding how to re-optimize other dimensions, which adds to the cost of adoption.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"465-503"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22974","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Firm Accommodation After Workplace Disability: Labor Market Impacts and Implications for Subsidy Design 工作场所残疾后的企业住宿：劳动力市场影响及补贴设计的启示
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22565
Naoki Aizawa, Corina Mommaerts, Stephanie Rennane
{"title":"Firm Accommodation After Workplace Disability: Labor Market Impacts and Implications for Subsidy Design","authors":"Naoki Aizawa,&nbsp;Corina Mommaerts,&nbsp;Stephanie Rennane","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22565","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA22565","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the labor market impacts of firm accommodation decisions after workplace disability and assesses implications for the design of firm subsidies. We leverage a workers' compensation (WC) program in Oregon that provides wage subsidies to firms for accommodating workers with workplace disabilities. Leveraging rich administrative data and a policy change to the wage subsidy, we show that accommodation rates respond to the subsidy rate and that receipt of accommodation leads to a significant increase in employment and earnings a year later. To explore welfare implications, we develop and estimate a frictional labor market model of accommodation as a form of human capital investment. Worker turnover and imperfect experience rating in WC lead to underaccommodation and inefficient labor market outcomes after workplace disability. Counterfactual simulations show that subsidizing accommodation not only improves long-run labor market outcomes of workers experiencing work-related disability but also yields welfare gains for most workers.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"341-374"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22565","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality 贸易和国内扭曲：非正式的例子
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19378
Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
{"title":"Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality","authors":"Rafael Dix-Carneiro,&nbsp;Pinelopi Goldberg,&nbsp;Costas Meghir,&nbsp;Gabriel Ulyssea","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19378","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA19378","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the effects of international trade in the presence of a set of domestic distortions giving rise to informality, a prevalent phenomenon in developing countries. In our quantitative model, the informal sector arises from burdensome taxes and regulations that are imperfectly enforced by the government. In equilibrium, smaller, less productive firms face fewer distortions than larger, more productive ones, potentially leading to substantial misallocation. We show that in settings with a large informal sector, the gains from trade are significantly amplified, as reductions in trade barriers imply a reallocation of resources from initially less distorted to more distorted firms. We confirm findings from earlier reduced-form studies that the informal sector mitigates the impact of negative labor demand shocks on unemployment. Nonetheless, the informal sector can exacerbate the adverse real income effects of economic downturns, amplifying misallocation. Last, our research sheds light on the relationship between trade openness and cross-firm wage inequality.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"573-618"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA19378","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
2025 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society 2025年计量经济学会会员选举
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA942EF
{"title":"2025 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA942EF","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA942EF","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"679-687"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Frontmatter of Econometrica 94 Iss. 2 《计量经济学》1994年第2期
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA942FM
{"title":"Frontmatter of Econometrica 94 Iss. 2","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA942FM","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA942FM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"i-ii"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Economics for Granular Settings 颗粒设置的空间经济学
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19350
Jonathan I. Dingel, Felix Tintelnot
{"title":"Spatial Economics for Granular Settings","authors":"Jonathan I. Dingel,&nbsp;Felix Tintelnot","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19350","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA19350","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the application of quantitative spatial models to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study local economic outcomes. In granular settings in which people choose from a large set of potential residence-workplace pairs, observed outcomes in part reflect idiosyncratic choices. Using analytical examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and event studies of neighborhood employment booms, we demonstrate that calibration procedures that equate observed shares and modeled probabilities perform very poorly in these high-dimensional settings. Parsimonious specifications of spatial linkages deliver better counterfactual predictions. To quantify the uncertainty about counterfactual outcomes induced by the idiosyncratic component of individuals' decisions, we introduce a quantitative spatial model with a finite number of individuals. Applying this model to Amazon's proposed second headquarters in New York City reveals that its predicted consequences for most neighborhoods vary substantially across realizations of the individual idiosyncrasies.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"407-464"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Food Policy in a Warming World 全球变暖中的粮食政策
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23125
Allan Hsiao, Jacob Moscona, Karthik A. Sastry
{"title":"Food Policy in a Warming World","authors":"Allan Hsiao,&nbsp;Jacob Moscona,&nbsp;Karthik A. Sastry","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23125","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA23125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies how governments intervene in agricultural markets to reshape the economic consequences of climate extremes. We construct a global dataset of agricultural policies and extreme heat exposure by country and crop since 1980. Extreme heat shocks to domestic production lead to policies that assist consumers by lowering domestic food prices. This effect is persistent, primarily implemented via border policies, and stronger during election years. Shocks to foreign production induce the opposite response: policies that assist producers by raising prices. These findings can be rationalized by a model in which governments use agricultural policy to redistribute among domestic interest groups. Our estimates imply that policy responses shield domestic consumers, while exacerbating losses for domestic producers and foreign consumers. Policy responses have regressive consequences globally, disproportionately harming poor and heat-exposed countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"537-572"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA23125","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Experimental Evaluation of Deferred Acceptance: Evidence From Over 100 Army Officer Labor Markets 延迟接受的实验评估：来自100多个军官劳动力市场的证据
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22160
Jonathan M.V. Davis, Kyle Greenberg, Damon Jones
{"title":"An Experimental Evaluation of Deferred Acceptance: Evidence From Over 100 Army Officer Labor Markets","authors":"Jonathan M.V. Davis,&nbsp;Kyle Greenberg,&nbsp;Damon Jones","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22160","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA22160","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Internal labor markets are increasingly important for matching workers to jobs within organizations. We present evidence from a randomized trial that compares matching workers to jobs using the deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm to the traditional manager-directed matching process. Our setting is the U.S. Army's internal labor market, which matches over 14,000 officers to units annually. We find that DA reduces administrative burden and increases match quality as measured by reduced justified envy, increased truthful preference reporting, and officers' and units' preferences over their matches. The overall impact of DA on officer retention and performance in the two years after officers started their new jobs is limited by strategic preference coordination between officers and units. However, DA leads to significant improvements in officer retention and promotions in markets with inexperienced managers. Our findings suggest that cross-market communication between agents in internal labor markets can attenuate the benefits of strategyproof matching algorithms.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"641-662"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22160","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empirical Bayes When Estimation Precision Predicts Parameters 估计精度预测参数时的经验贝叶斯
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22935
Jiafeng Chen
{"title":"Empirical Bayes When Estimation Precision Predicts Parameters","authors":"Jiafeng Chen","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22935","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA22935","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a <i>precision independence</i> assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable and empirically rejected. This paper proposes to model the conditional distribution of the parameter given the standard errors as a flexibly parameterized location-scale family of distributions, leading to a family of methods that we call <span>close</span>. The <span>close</span> framework unifies and generalizes several proposals under precision dependence. We argue that the most flexible member of the <span>close</span> family is a minimalist and computationally efficient default for accounting for precision dependence. We analyze this method and show that it is competitive in terms of the regret of subsequent decision rules. Empirically, using <span>close</span> leads to sizable gains for selecting high-mobility Census tracts.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"305-340"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 94 Iss. 2 计量经济学背景资料，第94卷第2期
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA942BM
{"title":"Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 94 Iss. 2","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA942BM","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA942BM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"iii-v"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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