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Screening Property Rights for Innovation 为创新筛选产权
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22363
William Matcham, Mark Schankerman
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引用次数: 0
Physician Behavior in the Presence of a Secondary Market: The Case of Prescription Opioids 二级市场存在下的医生行为：处方阿片类药物的案例
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20884
Molly Schnell
{"title":"Physician Behavior in the Presence of a Secondary Market: The Case of Prescription Opioids","authors":"Molly Schnell","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20884","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines how drug diversion influences the prescribing practices of physicians and the equilibrium health impacts of prescription medications. Focusing on the case of prescription opioids, a commonly prescribed and frequently diverted medication at the heart of the worst drug crisis in U.S. history, I design and estimate a model of physician behavior in the presence of a secondary market with patient search. To access prescription opioids for medical purposes or misuse, patients search over physicians on the legal primary market or turn to an illegal secondary market. Physicians, who care both about their impact on population health and their revenue from office visits, take into account the possibility that patients might resell their prescriptions on the secondary market when prescribing. The model demonstrates that the potential for diversion will tend to make strict physicians more hesitant in their prescribing while leading lenient prescribers to loosen their prescription thresholds, thereby exacerbating prescribing differences between more and less lenient physicians. Estimates reveal that the presence of a secondary market induces most physicians to be more careful in their prescribing, which brings prescriptions closer to their optimal level, but also causes harm through the reallocation of prescriptions for abuse.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"1489-1528"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20884","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Curtailing False News, Amplifying Truth 减少假新闻，放大真相
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22524
Sergei Guriev, Emeric Henry, Théo Marquis, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
{"title":"Curtailing False News, Amplifying Truth","authors":"Sergei Guriev,&nbsp;Emeric Henry,&nbsp;Théo Marquis,&nbsp;Ekaterina Zhuravskaya","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22524","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a comprehensive framework to evaluate policy interventions aimed at curbing false news dissemination on social media. Using a randomized experiment on Twitter and <span></span><math></math> during the 2022 and 2024 U.S. elections, we assess priming for misinformation awareness, fact-checking, confirmation clicks, and content consideration prompts. Priming proves most effective in reducing false-news sharing while preserving true news dissemination. We build and structurally estimate a model of sharing, motivated by partisan persuasion, partisan signaling, and reputational concerns. We identify three channels through which policies influence sharing: (i) updating perceived veracity and partisanship of content, (ii) raising salience of reputation, and (iii) increasing engagement costs. Differences in the effects of policies are explained by the salience and cost channels. Content-neutral priming is best at enhancing salience of reputation at minimal cost and almost as effective as fact-checking in updating veracity. Salience channel is stronger when users encounter uncontroversially true content.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"1563-1601"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal Inference With Noisy Covariates: Heteroscedastic Measurement Error and Differential Privacy 带噪声协变量的因果推理：异方差测量误差与差分隐私
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23897
Anish Agarwal, Rahul Singh
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引用次数: 0
Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments 空间处理的因果推理
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21571
Michael Pollmann
{"title":"Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments","authors":"Michael Pollmann","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21571","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many events and policies (treatments) occur at specific spatial locations, with researchers interested in their effects on nearby units. I approach the <i>spatial treatment</i> setting from an experimental perspective: What ideal experiment would we design to estimate the causal effects of spatial treatments? This perspective motivates a comparison between units near realized treatment locations and units near counterfactual (unrealized) candidate locations, which differs from current empirical practice. I derive design-based standard errors that are straightforward to compute. For observational data, I propose machine learning methods to find counterfactual candidate locations when observable characteristics, rather than potential outcomes, determine treatment probabilities. To accommodate methods for high-dimensional data in the theory, I extend a double machine learning result to the design-based framework with spatial correlations. I apply the proposed methods to study the causal effects of grocery stores on foot traffic to nearby businesses during COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies, finding a large positive effect at very short distances, with no effect at larger distances.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"1529-1561"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Frontmatter of Econometrica 94 Iss. 5 《计量经济学》1994年第5期
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA945FM
{"title":"Frontmatter of Econometrica 94 Iss. 5","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA945FM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA945FM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"i-ii"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Locally Robust Semiparametrically Efficient Bayesian Inference 局部鲁棒半参数有效贝叶斯推理
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23242
Ulrich Müller, Andriy Norets
{"title":"Locally Robust Semiparametrically Efficient Bayesian Inference","authors":"Ulrich Müller,&nbsp;Andriy Norets","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23242","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose a framework for making Bayesian parametric models robust to local misspecification. Suppose in a baseline parametric model, a parameter of interest has an interpretation in an encompassing semiparametric model. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators are generally biased under local misspecification. We propose to augment the baseline likelihood by a multiplicative factor that involves scores for the baseline model, the efficient scores for the encompassing semiparametric model, and an auxiliary parameter that has the same dimension as the parameter of interest. We show that the marginal posterior for the parameter of interest in the augmented model is asymptotically normal with mean equal to the semiparametrically efficient estimator and variance equal to the semiparametric efficiency bound. The suggested augmentation robustifies the baseline parametric model to local misspecification, while preserving the appeal of Bayesian inference. We develop an MCMC algorithm for the augmented model and illustrate the approach in applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"1761-1777"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 94 Iss. 5 计量经济学背景，第94卷，第5期
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA945BM
{"title":"Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 94 Iss. 5","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA945BM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA945BM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"iii-v"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs 为什么工人不喜欢通货膨胀？工资侵蚀和冲突成本
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23874
Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian, Christina Patterson
{"title":"Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs","authors":"Joao Guerreiro,&nbsp;Jonathon Hazell,&nbsp;Chen Lian,&nbsp;Christina Patterson","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23874","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How costly is inflation to workers? Answers to this question have focused on the path of real wages during inflationary periods. We argue that workers must take costly actions (“conflict”) to have nominal wages catch up with inflation, meaning there are welfare costs even if real wages do not fall as inflation rises. We study a menu-cost style model, where workers choose whether to engage in conflict with employers to secure a wage increase. We show that, following a rise in inflation, wage catch-up resulting from more frequent conflict does not raise welfare. Instead, the impact of inflation on worker welfare is determined by what we call “wage erosion”—how inflation would lower real wages if workers' conflict decisions did not respond to inflation. As a result, using observed wage growth to measure worker welfare understates the costs of inflation. We conduct a survey showing that workers are willing to sacrifice around 1.75% of their wages to avoid conflict. Calibrating the model to survey data, we find that incorporating conflict significantly raises the costs of inflation for workers.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"1651-1684"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA23874","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Role of Trade in Premature Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization 贸易在过早去工业化和产业两极分化中的作用
IF 6.2 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20428
Michael Sposi, Kei-Mu Yi, Jing Zhang
{"title":"The Role of Trade in Premature Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization","authors":"Michael Sposi,&nbsp;Kei-Mu Yi,&nbsp;Jing Zhang","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20428","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document two key patterns of structural change: premature deindustrialization and rising industry polarization. Using a dynamic open-economy model with sector-biased technological change (SBTC), we evaluate the role of trade in these shifts. Trade alone does not cause premature deindustrialization, but its interaction with SBTC—transmitting global technological change, amplifying the decline in manufacturing's relative price over time, and generating manufacturing trade imbalances across countries—deepens premature deindustrialization over time. Industry polarization, by contrast, emerges only through trade-driven specialization, as countries diverge along lines of comparative advantage.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 5","pages":"1779-1815"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149014751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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