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Tail Risk in Production Networks 生产网络的尾端风险
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21064
Ian Dew-Becker
{"title":"Tail Risk in Production Networks","authors":"Ian Dew-Becker","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21064","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA21064","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>This paper describes the response of the economy to large shocks in a nonlinear production network. A sector's <i>tail centrality</i> measures how a large negative shock transmits to GDP, that is, the systemic risk of the sector. Tail centrality is theoretically and empirically very different from local centrality measures such as sales share—in a benchmark case, it is measured as a sector's average downstream closeness to final production. It also measures how large differences in sector productivity can generate cross-country income differences. The paper also uses the results to analyze the determinants of total tail risk in the economy. Increases in interconnectedness can simultaneously reduce the sensitivity of the economy to small shocks while increasing the sensitivity to large shocks. Tail risk is related to <i>conditional granularity</i>, where some sectors become highly influential following negative shocks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2089-2123"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Anatomy of Sorting—Evidence From Danish Data 排序剖析--来自丹麦数据的证据
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16425
Rasmus Lentz, Suphanit Piyapromdee, Jean-Marc Robin
{"title":"The Anatomy of Sorting—Evidence From Danish Data","authors":"Rasmus Lentz,&nbsp;Suphanit Piyapromdee,&nbsp;Jean-Marc Robin","doi":"10.3982/ECTA16425","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA16425","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>In this paper, we formulate and estimate a flexible model of job mobility and wages with two-sided heterogeneity. The analysis extends the finite mixture approach of Bonhomme, Lamadon, and Manresa (2019) and Abowd, McKinney, and Schmutte (2019) to develop a new Classification Expectation-Maximization algorithm that ensures both worker and firm latent-type identification using wage and mobility variations in the data. Workers receive job offers in worker-type segmented labor markets. Offers are accepted according to a logit form that compares the value of the current job with that of the new job. In combination with flexibly estimated layoff and job finding rates, the analysis quantifies the four different sources of sorting: job preferences, segmentation, layoffs, and job finding. Job preferences are identified through job-to-job moves in a revealed preference argument. They are in the model structurally independent of the identified job wages, possibly as a reflection of the presence of amenities. We find evidence of a strong pecuniary motive in job preferences. While the correlation between preferences and current job wages is positive, the net present value of the future earnings stream given the current job correlates much more strongly with preferences for it. This is more so for short- than long-tenure workers. In the analysis, we distinguish between type sorting and wage sorting. Type sorting is quantified by means of the mutual information index. Wage sorting is captured through correlation between identified wage types. While layoffs are less important than the other channels, we find all channels to contribute substantially to sorting. As workers age, job arrival processes are the key determinant of wage sorting, whereas the role of job preferences dictate type sorting. Over the life cycle, job preferences intensify, type sorting increases, and pecuniary considerations wane.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2409-2455"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA16425","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Algorithmic Mechanism Design With Investment 有投资的算法机制设计
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19559
Mohammad Akbarpour, Scott Duke Kominers, Kevin Michael Li, Shengwu Li, Paul Milgrom
{"title":"Algorithmic Mechanism Design With Investment","authors":"Mohammad Akbarpour,&nbsp;Scott Duke Kominers,&nbsp;Kevin Michael Li,&nbsp;Shengwu Li,&nbsp;Paul Milgrom","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19559","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA19559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the investment incentives created by truthful mechanisms that allocate resources using approximation algorithms. Some approximation algorithms guarantee nearly 100% of the optimal welfare in the allocation problem but guarantee nothing when accounting for investment incentives. An algorithm's allocative and investment guarantees coincide if and only if its <i>confirming negative externalities</i> are sufficiently small. We introduce fast approximation algorithms for the knapsack problem that have no confirming negative externalities and guarantees close to 100% for both allocation and investment.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"1969-2003"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Comment on: “Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development. The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality” by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Tristan Reed 评论"主席致辞：发展中的需求方制约因素。市场规模、贸易和（不）平等的作用"，作者：Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg 和 Tristan Reed
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22218
Tim Bresnahan
{"title":"A Comment on: “Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development. The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality” by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Tristan Reed","authors":"Tim Bresnahan","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22218","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"1951-1953"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138550496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Comment on: “Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development: The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality,” by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Tristan Reed 评论"主席致辞：发展中的需求方制约因素：市场规模、贸易和（不）平等的作用"，作者：Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg 和 Tristan Reed
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22088
Dani Rodrik
{"title":"A Comment on: “Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development: The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality,” by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Tristan Reed","authors":"Dani Rodrik","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22088","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"1959-1962"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138550498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Comment on: “Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth” 评论"低利率、市场力量与生产率增长
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20621
Craig A. Chikis, Jonathan Goldberg, David López-Salido
{"title":"A Comment on: “Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth”","authors":"Craig A. Chikis,&nbsp;Jonathan Goldberg,&nbsp;David López-Salido","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20621","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20621","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using an endogenous growth model, Liu, Mian, and Sufi (2022) (LMS) show that a decline in the interest rate can lead to a fall in productivity growth and a rise in leader-laggard productivity gaps and firm profits. We identify two issues in their quantitative analysis of transition dynamics: a time-scale error and the omission of composition terms in calculating productivity growth along the transition to a new balanced growth path. Correcting the time-scale error and including the composition terms, the decline in the interest rate that LMS study leads to a large and protracted productivity boom lasting about 20 years. In addition, the average leader-laggard gap grows much more slowly than reported in their paper. We also point out an issue in their quantitative analysis of steady-state profit shares. These issues are related to the quantitative exercises, and do not affect the key theoretical contributions of LMS.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2457-2461"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Urban Growth and Its Aggregate Implications 城市增长及其总体影响
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17936
Gilles Duranton, Diego Puga
{"title":"Urban Growth and Its Aggregate Implications","authors":"Gilles Duranton,&nbsp;Diego Puga","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17936","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA17936","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We develop an urban growth model where human capital spillovers foster entrepreneurship and learning in heterogeneous cities. Incumbent residents limit city expansion through planning regulations so that commuting and housing costs do not outweigh productivity gains from agglomeration. The model builds on strong microfoundations, matches key regularities at the city and economy-wide levels, and generates novel predictions for which we provide evidence. It can be quantified by relying on few parameters and gives us a basis to estimate them. We examine counterfactuals relaxing planning regulations or constraining city growth to assess the effect of cities on economic growth and aggregate output.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2219-2259"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA17936","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data 同根不同叶：面板数据中的时间序列和横截面方法
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21248
Dennis Shen, Peng Ding, Jasjeet Sekhon, Bin Yu
{"title":"Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data","authors":"Dennis Shen,&nbsp;Peng Ding,&nbsp;Jasjeet Sekhon,&nbsp;Bin Yu","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21248","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA21248","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>One dominant approach to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment is through panel data analysis, whereby the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and units motivates two general approaches: (i) horizontal regression (i.e., unconfoundedness), which exploits time series patterns, and (ii) vertical regression (e.g., synthetic controls), which exploits cross-sectional patterns. Conventional wisdom often considers the two approaches to be different. We establish this position to be partly false for estimation but generally true for inference. In the absence of any assumptions, we show that both approaches yield algebraically equivalent point estimates for several standard estimators. However, the source of randomness assumed by each approach leads to a distinct estimand and quantification of uncertainty even for the same point estimate. This emphasizes that researchers should carefully consider where the randomness stems from in their data, as it has direct implications for the accuracy of inference.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2125-2154"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21248","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Corporate Tax Cuts and the Decline in the Manufacturing Labor Share 企业减税与制造业劳动力比重下降
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17702
Barış Kaymak, Immo Schott
{"title":"Corporate Tax Cuts and the Decline in the Manufacturing Labor Share","authors":"Barış Kaymak,&nbsp;Immo Schott","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17702","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA17702","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document a strong empirical connection between corporate taxation and the manufacturing labor share, both in the US and across OECD countries. Our estimates associate 30 to 60% of the observed decline in labor shares with the fall in corporate taxation. Using an equilibrium model of an industry where firms differ in their capital intensities, we show that lower corporate tax rates reduce the labor share by raising the market share of capital-intensive firms. The tax elasticity of the labor share depends on the joint distribution of labor intensities and value added at the micro level. Given the empirical distribution in the US manufacturing sector, our quantitative analysis suggests that corporate tax cuts explain a significant part of the decline in the manufacturing labor share since the 1950s. The shift away from traditionally large, labor-intensive production units raised the concentration of market shares and reduced the concentration of employment.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2371-2408"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Cross-Sectional Implications of the Social Discount Rate 社会贴现率的跨部门影响
IF 6.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20844
Maya Eden
{"title":"The Cross-Sectional Implications of the Social Discount Rate","authors":"Maya Eden","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20844","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20844","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>In this paper, I consider two normative questions: (1) how should policymakers approach tradeoffs that involve different age groups, and (2) at what rate should policymakers discount the consumption of future generations? I demonstrate that, under standard assumptions, these two questions are equivalent: caring more about the future means caring less about the elderly. Even small differences between the social discount rate and the market interest rate can have significant quantitative implications for the relative value placed on the consumption of different age groups.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"91 6","pages":"2065-2088"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20844","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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