EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19559
Mohammad Akbarpour, Scott Duke Kominers, Kevin Michael Li, Shengwu Li, Paul Milgrom
{"title":"Algorithmic Mechanism Design With Investment","authors":"Mohammad Akbarpour, Scott Duke Kominers, Kevin Michael Li, Shengwu Li, Paul Milgrom","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19559","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA19559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the investment incentives created by truthful mechanisms that allocate resources using approximation algorithms. Some approximation algorithms guarantee nearly 100% of the optimal welfare in the allocation problem but guarantee nothing when accounting for investment incentives. An algorithm's allocative and investment guarantees coincide if and only if its <i>confirming negative externalities</i> are sufficiently small. We introduce fast approximation algorithms for the knapsack problem that have no confirming negative externalities and guarantees close to 100% for both allocation and investment.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22218
Tim Bresnahan
{"title":"A Comment on: “Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development. The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality” by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Tristan Reed","authors":"Tim Bresnahan","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22218","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138550496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22088
Dani Rodrik
{"title":"A Comment on: “Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development: The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality,” by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Tristan Reed","authors":"Dani Rodrik","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22088","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138550498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20621
Craig A. Chikis, Jonathan Goldberg, David López-Salido
{"title":"A Comment on: “Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth”","authors":"Craig A. Chikis, Jonathan Goldberg, David López-Salido","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20621","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20621","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using an endogenous growth model, Liu, Mian, and Sufi (2022) (LMS) show that a decline in the interest rate can lead to a fall in productivity growth and a rise in leader-laggard productivity gaps and firm profits. We identify two issues in their quantitative analysis of transition dynamics: a time-scale error and the omission of composition terms in calculating productivity growth along the transition to a new balanced growth path. Correcting the time-scale error and including the composition terms, the decline in the interest rate that LMS study leads to a large and protracted productivity boom lasting about 20 years. In addition, the average leader-laggard gap grows much more slowly than reported in their paper. We also point out an issue in their quantitative analysis of steady-state profit shares. These issues are related to the quantitative exercises, and do not affect the key theoretical contributions of LMS.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17936
Gilles Duranton, Diego Puga
{"title":"Urban Growth and Its Aggregate Implications","authors":"Gilles Duranton, Diego Puga","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17936","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA17936","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We develop an urban growth model where human capital spillovers foster entrepreneurship and learning in heterogeneous cities. Incumbent residents limit city expansion through planning regulations so that commuting and housing costs do not outweigh productivity gains from agglomeration. The model builds on strong microfoundations, matches key regularities at the city and economy-wide levels, and generates novel predictions for which we provide evidence. It can be quantified by relying on few parameters and gives us a basis to estimate them. We examine counterfactuals relaxing planning regulations or constraining city growth to assess the effect of cities on economic growth and aggregate output.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA17936","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21248
Dennis Shen, Peng Ding, Jasjeet Sekhon, Bin Yu
{"title":"Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data","authors":"Dennis Shen, Peng Ding, Jasjeet Sekhon, Bin Yu","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21248","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA21248","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>One dominant approach to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment is through panel data analysis, whereby the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and units motivates two general approaches: (i) horizontal regression (i.e., unconfoundedness), which exploits time series patterns, and (ii) vertical regression (e.g., synthetic controls), which exploits cross-sectional patterns. Conventional wisdom often considers the two approaches to be different. We establish this position to be partly false for estimation but generally true for inference. In the absence of any assumptions, we show that both approaches yield algebraically equivalent point estimates for several standard estimators. However, the source of randomness assumed by each approach leads to a distinct estimand and quantification of uncertainty even for the same point estimate. This emphasizes that researchers should carefully consider where the randomness stems from in their data, as it has direct implications for the accuracy of inference.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21248","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17702
Barış Kaymak, Immo Schott
{"title":"Corporate Tax Cuts and the Decline in the Manufacturing Labor Share","authors":"Barış Kaymak, Immo Schott","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17702","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA17702","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document a strong empirical connection between corporate taxation and the manufacturing labor share, both in the US and across OECD countries. Our estimates associate 30 to 60% of the observed decline in labor shares with the fall in corporate taxation. Using an equilibrium model of an industry where firms differ in their capital intensities, we show that lower corporate tax rates reduce the labor share by raising the market share of capital-intensive firms. The tax elasticity of the labor share depends on the joint distribution of labor intensities and value added at the micro level. Given the empirical distribution in the US manufacturing sector, our quantitative analysis suggests that corporate tax cuts explain a significant part of the decline in the manufacturing labor share since the 1950s. The shift away from traditionally large, labor-intensive production units raised the concentration of market shares and reduced the concentration of employment.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20844
Maya Eden
{"title":"The Cross-Sectional Implications of the Social Discount Rate","authors":"Maya Eden","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20844","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20844","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>In this paper, I consider two normative questions: (1) how should policymakers approach tradeoffs that involve different age groups, and (2) at what rate should policymakers discount the consumption of future generations? I demonstrate that, under standard assumptions, these two questions are equivalent: caring more about the future means caring less about the elderly. Even small differences between the social discount rate and the market interest rate can have significant quantitative implications for the relative value placed on the consumption of different age groups.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20844","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA18707
Tetsuya Kaji, Elena Manresa, Guillaume Pouliot
{"title":"An Adversarial Approach to Structural Estimation","authors":"Tetsuya Kaji, Elena Manresa, Guillaume Pouliot","doi":"10.3982/ECTA18707","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA18707","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We propose a new simulation-based estimation method, adversarial estimation, for structural models. The estimator is formulated as the solution to a minimax problem between a generator (which generates simulated observations using the structural model) and a discriminator (which classifies whether an observation is simulated). The discriminator maximizes the accuracy of its classification while the generator minimizes it. We show that, with a sufficiently rich discriminator, the adversarial estimator attains parametric efficiency under correct specification and the parametric rate under misspecification. We advocate the use of a neural network as a discriminator that can exploit adaptivity properties and attain fast rates of convergence.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA18707","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20598
Zhexiao Lin, Peng Ding, Fang Han
{"title":"Estimation Based on Nearest Neighbor Matching: From Density Ratio to Average Treatment Effect","authors":"Zhexiao Lin, Peng Ding, Fang Han","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20598","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20598","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nearest neighbor (NN) matching is widely used in observational studies for causal effects. Abadie and Imbens (2006) provided the first large-sample analysis of NN matching. Their theory focuses on the case with the number of NNs, <i>M</i> fixed. We reveal something new out of their study and show that once allowing <i>M</i> to diverge with the sample size an intrinsic statistic in their analysis constitutes a consistent estimator of the density ratio with regard to covariates across the treated and control groups. Consequently, with a diverging <i>M</i>, the NN matching with Abadie and Imbens' (2011) bias correction yields a doubly robust estimator of the average treatment effect and is semiparametrically efficient if the density functions are sufficiently smooth and the outcome model is consistently estimated. It can thus be viewed as a precursor of the double machine learning estimators.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}