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Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty 供应链不确定性下的内生生产网络
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20629
Alexandr Kopytov, Bineet Mishra, Kristoffer Nimark, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel
{"title":"Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty","authors":"Alexandr Kopytov,&nbsp;Bineet Mishra,&nbsp;Kristoffer Nimark,&nbsp;Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20629","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the production network and the level and volatility of macroeconomic aggregates. When uncertainty increases in the model, producers prefer to purchase from more stable suppliers, even though they might sell at higher prices. The resulting reorganization of the network tends to reduce macroeconomic volatility, but at the cost of a decline in aggregate output. The model also predicts that more productive and stable firms have higher Domar weights—a measure of their importance as suppliers—in the equilibrium network. We provide a basic calibration of the model using U.S. data to evaluate the importance of these mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1621-1659"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exact Bias Correction for Linear Adjustment of Randomized Controlled Trials 随机对照试验线性调整的精确偏差校正
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20289
Haoge Chang, Joel A. Middleton, P. M. Aronow
{"title":"Exact Bias Correction for Linear Adjustment of Randomized Controlled Trials","authors":"Haoge Chang,&nbsp;Joel A. Middleton,&nbsp;P. M. Aronow","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20289","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Freedman (2008a,b) showed that the linear regression estimator is biased for the analysis of randomized controlled trials under the randomization model. Under Freedman's assumptions, we derive exact closed-form bias corrections for the linear regression estimator. We show that the limiting distribution of the bias corrected estimator is identical to the uncorrected estimator. Taken together with results from Lin (2013), our results show that Freedman's theoretical arguments against the use of regression adjustment can be resolved with minor modifications to practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1503-1519"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression 空间单位根与虚假回归
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21654
Ulrich K. Müller, Mark W. Watson
{"title":"Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression","authors":"Ulrich K. Müller,&nbsp;Mark W. Watson","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21654","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes a model for, and investigates the consequences of, strong spatial dependence in economic variables. Our findings echo those of the corresponding “unit root” time series literature: Spatial unit root processes induce spuriously significant regression results, even with clustered standard errors or spatial HAC corrections. We develop large-sample valid unit root and stationarity tests that can detect such strong spatial dependence. Finally, we use simulations to study strategies for valid inference in regressions with persistent spatial data, such as spatial analogues of first-differencing transformations. Regressions from Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez (2014) are used to illustrate the issues and methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1661-1695"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sequentially Stable Outcomes 连续稳定的结果
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21402
Francesc Dilmé
{"title":"Sequentially Stable Outcomes","authors":"Francesc Dilmé","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21402","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA21402","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>This paper introduces and analyzes <i>sequentially stable outcomes</i> in extensive-form games. An outcome <i>ω</i> is sequentially stable if, for any <i>ε</i> &gt; 0 and any small enough perturbation of the players' behavior, there is an <i>ε</i>-perturbation of the players' payoffs and a corresponding equilibrium with outcome close to <i>ω</i>. Sequentially stable outcomes exist for all finite games and are outcomes of sequential equilibria. They are closely related to stable sets of equilibria and satisfy versions of forward induction, iterated strict equilibrium dominance, and invariance to simultaneous moves. In signaling games, sequentially stable outcomes pass the standard selection criteria, and when payoffs are generic, they coincide with outcomes of stable sets of equilibria.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"1097-1134"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21402","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141863686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle 美国公共债务估值之谜
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20497
Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Mindy Z. Xiaolan
{"title":"The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle","authors":"Zhengyang Jiang,&nbsp;Hanno Lustig,&nbsp;Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,&nbsp;Mindy Z. Xiaolan","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20497","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20497","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no-arbitrage restriction in the United States. Both cyclical and long-run dynamics of tax revenues and government spending make the surplus claim risky. In a realistic asset pricing model, this risk in surpluses creates a large gap between the market value of debt and its fundamental value, the PDV of surpluses, suggesting that U.S. Treasuries may be overpriced.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"1309-1347"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141863906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reply to: Comment on “Presidential Address: Economics and Measurement: New Measures to Model Decision Making” 答复对 "总统演讲 "的评论：经济学与测量：模拟决策的新措施"
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22811
Ingvild Almås, Orazio Attanasio, Pamela Jervis
{"title":"Reply to: Comment on “Presidential Address: Economics and Measurement: New Measures to Model Decision Making”","authors":"Ingvild Almås,&nbsp;Orazio Attanasio,&nbsp;Pamela Jervis","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22811","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"991-993"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Searching for Approval 寻求批准
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA18554
Sumit Agarwal, John Grigsby, Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, Amit Seru, Vincent Yao
{"title":"Searching for Approval","authors":"Sumit Agarwal,&nbsp;John Grigsby,&nbsp;Ali Hortaçsu,&nbsp;Gregor Matvos,&nbsp;Amit Seru,&nbsp;Vincent Yao","doi":"10.3982/ECTA18554","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA18554","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>This paper theoretically and empirically studies the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. Risky borrowers internalize the probability that their application is rejected and behave as if they had high search costs. Thus, “overpayment” may be a poor proxy for consumer sophistication since it partly represents rational search in response to rejections. Contrary to standard search models, our model implies (1) endogenous adverse selection through the search and application approval process, (2) a possibly non-monotone or non-decreasing relationship between search and realized interest, default, and application approval rates, and (3) search costs estimated from transaction prices alone are biased. We find support for the model's predictions using a unique data set detailing search behavior of mortgage borrowers. Estimating the model, we find that screening is informative and search is costly. Counterfactual analyses reveal that tightening lending standards and discrimination through application rejection both increase equilibrium interest rates. This increase in realized interest rates is in part due to strategic complementarity in bank rate setting.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"1195-1231"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA18554","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141863687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 92 Iss. 4 经济计量学前沿》（Frontmatter of Econometrica）第 92 卷第 4 期。4
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA924FM
{"title":"Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 92 Iss. 4","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA924FM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA924FM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"i-ii"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data 利用微观数据对差异化产品需求进行非参数识别
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20731
Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
{"title":"Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data","authors":"Steven T. Berry,&nbsp;Philip A. Haile","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20731","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA20731","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine identification of differentiated products demand when one has “micro data” linking the characteristics and choices of individual consumers. Our model nests standard specifications featuring rich observed and unobserved consumer heterogeneity as well as product/market-level unobservables that introduce the problem of econometric endogeneity. Previous work establishes identification of such models using market-level data and instruments for all prices and quantities. Micro data provides a panel structure that facilitates richer demand specifications and reduces requirements on both the number and types of instrumental variables. We address identification of demand in the standard case in which nonprice product characteristics are assumed exogenous, but also cover identification of demand elasticities and other key features when these product characteristics are endogenous and not instrumented. We discuss implications of these results for applied work.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"1135-1162"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141863683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The State Capacity Ceiling on Tax Rates: Evidence From Randomized Tax Abatements in the DRC 税率的国家能力上限：刚果民主共和国随机减税的证据
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19959
Augustin Bergeron, Gabriel Tourek, Jonathan L. Weigel
{"title":"The State Capacity Ceiling on Tax Rates: Evidence From Randomized Tax Abatements in the DRC","authors":"Augustin Bergeron,&nbsp;Gabriel Tourek,&nbsp;Jonathan L. Weigel","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19959","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>This paper investigates how tax rates and tax enforcement jointly impact fiscal capacity in low-income countries. We study a policy experiment in the D.R. Congo that randomly assigned 38,028 property owners to the status quo tax rate or to a rate reduction. This variation in tax liabilities reveals that the status quo rate lies <i>above</i> the revenue-maximizing tax rate (RMTR). Reducing rates by about one-third would maximize government revenue by increasing tax compliance. We then exploit two sources of variation in enforcement—randomized enforcement letters and random assignment of tax collectors—to show that the RMTR increases with enforcement. Including an enforcement message on tax letters or replacing tax collectors in the bottom quartile of enforcement capacity with average collectors would raise the RMTR by about 40%. Tax rates and enforcement are thus complementary levers. Jointly optimizing tax rates and enforcement would lead to 10% higher revenue gains than optimizing them independently. These findings provide experimental evidence that low government enforcement capacity sets a binding ceiling on the revenue-maximizing tax rate in some developing countries, thereby demonstrating the value of increasing tax rates in tandem with enforcement to expand fiscal capacity.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 4","pages":"1163-1193"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA19959","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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