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Choices and Outcomes in Assignment Mechanisms: The Allocation of Deceased Donor Kidneys 分配机制的选择和结果：已故供体肾脏的分配
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20203
Nikhil Agarwal, Charles Hodgson, Paulo Somaini
{"title":"Choices and Outcomes in Assignment Mechanisms: The Allocation of Deceased Donor Kidneys","authors":"Nikhil Agarwal,&nbsp;Charles Hodgson,&nbsp;Paulo Somaini","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20203","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the mechanism design paradigm emphasizes notions of efficiency based on agent preferences, policymakers often focus on alternative objectives. School districts emphasize educational achievement, and transplantation communities focus on patient survival. It is unclear whether choice-based mechanisms perform well when assessed based on these outcomes. This paper evaluates the assignment mechanism for allocating deceased donor kidneys on the basis of patient life-years from transplantation (LYFT). We examine the role of choice in increasing LYFT and compare realized assignments to benchmarks that remove choice. Our model combines choices and outcomes in order to study how selection affects LYFT. We show how to identify and estimate the model using instruments derived from the mechanism. The estimates suggest that the design in use selects patients with better post-transplant survival prospects and matches them well, resulting in an average LYFT of 9.29, which is 1.75 years more than a random assignment. However, the maximum aggregate LYFT is 14.08. Realizing the majority of the gains requires transplanting relatively healthy patients, who would have longer life expectancies even without a transplant. Therefore, a policymaker faces a dilemma between transplanting patients who are sicker and those for whom life will be extended the longest.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"395-438"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Double Robust Bayesian Inference on Average Treatment Effects 平均治疗效果的双鲁棒贝叶斯推断
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21442
Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu
{"title":"Double Robust Bayesian Inference on Average Treatment Effects","authors":"Christoph Breunig,&nbsp;Ruixuan Liu,&nbsp;Zhengfei Yu","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21442","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. For our new Bayesian approach, we first adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean functions, and then correct the posterior distribution of the resulting ATE. Both adjustments make use of pilot estimators motivated by the semiparametric influence function for ATE estimation. We prove asymptotic equivalence of our Bayesian procedure and efficient frequentist ATE estimators by establishing a new semiparametric Bernstein–von Mises theorem under double robustness; that is, the lack of smoothness of conditional mean functions can be compensated by high regularity of the propensity score and vice versa. Consequently, the resulting Bayesian credible sets form confidence intervals with asymptotically exact coverage probability. In simulations, our method provides precise point estimates of the ATE through the posterior mean and delivers credible intervals that closely align with the nominal coverage probability. Furthermore, our approach achieves a shorter interval length in comparison to existing methods. We illustrate our method in an application to the National Supported Work Demonstration following LaLonde (1986) and Dehejia and Wahba (1999).</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"539-568"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21442","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Margins of Trade 贸易保证金
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17510
Ana Cecília Fieler, Jonathan Eaton
{"title":"The Margins of Trade","authors":"Ana Cecília Fieler,&nbsp;Jonathan Eaton","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17510","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Welfare depends on the quantity, quality, and range of goods consumed. We use trade data, which report the quantities and prices of the individual goods that countries exchange, to learn about how the gains from trade and growth break down into these different margins. Our general equilibrium model, in which both quality and quantity contribute to consumption and to production, captures (i) how prices increase with importer and exporter per capita income, (ii) how the range of goods traded rises with importer and exporter size, and (iii) how products traveling longer distances have higher prices. Our framework can deliver a standard gravity formulation for total trade flows and for the gains from trade. We find that growth in the extensive margin contributes to about half of overall gains. Quality plays a larger role in the welfare gains from international trade than from economic growth due to selection.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"129-160"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mussa Puzzle Redux 穆萨拼图Redux
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20849
Oleg Itskhoki, Dmitry Mukhin
{"title":"Mussa Puzzle Redux","authors":"Oleg Itskhoki,&nbsp;Dmitry Mukhin","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20849","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the observation of a sharp and simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods System of pegged exchange rates in 1973. It is commonly viewed as a central piece of evidence in favor of monetary non-neutrality because it is an instance in which a change in the monetary regime caused a dramatic change in the equilibrium behavior of a <i>real</i> variable—the real exchange rate—and is often further interpreted as direct evidence in favor of models with <i>nominal rigidities</i> in price setting. This paper shows that the data do not support this latter conclusion because there was no simultaneous change in the properties of the other macro variables, nominal or real; an extended set of Mussa facts falsifies both <i>conventional</i> flexible-price RBC models and sticky-price New Keynesian models. We present a resolution to the broader Mussa puzzle based on a model of segmented financial market, in which the bulk of the <i>nominal</i> exchange rate risk is held by financial intermediaries and is not shared smoothly throughout the economy, emphasizing the importance of monetary transmission via the risk premium channel.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"1-39"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Econometric Society Annual Reports Report of the Editors of the Monograph Series 计量经济学会年度报告专著系列编辑报告
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA931MONO
{"title":"The Econometric Society Annual Reports Report of the Editors of the Monograph Series","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA931MONO","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA931MONO","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"351-353"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 1 计量经济学背景，第93卷第1期
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA931BM
{"title":"Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 1","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA931BM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA931BM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"iii-v"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Econometric Society Annual Reports Report of the Treasurer 计量经济学会年度报告财务主管的报告
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA931TREAS
{"title":"The Econometric Society Annual Reports Report of the Treasurer","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA931TREAS","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA931TREAS","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"319-331"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings 告诉我一些我不知道的事情：在低通胀和高通胀环境下学习
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22764
Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Hassan Afrouzi, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, Geoff Kenny, Jorge Ponce
{"title":"Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings","authors":"Michael Weber,&nbsp;Bernardo Candia,&nbsp;Hassan Afrouzi,&nbsp;Tiziano Ropele,&nbsp;Rodrigo Lluberas,&nbsp;Serafin Frache,&nbsp;Brent Meyer,&nbsp;Saten Kumar,&nbsp;Yuriy Gorodnichenko,&nbsp;Dimitris Georgarakos,&nbsp;Olivier Coibion,&nbsp;Geoff Kenny,&nbsp;Jorge Ponce","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22764","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"229-264"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22764","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Well Does Bargaining Work in Consumer Markets? A Robust Bounds Approach 议价在消费者市场中有多有效？鲁棒界方法
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20125
Joachim Freyberger, Bradley J. Larsen
{"title":"How Well Does Bargaining Work in Consumer Markets? A Robust Bounds Approach","authors":"Joachim Freyberger,&nbsp;Bradley J. Larsen","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study provides a structural analysis of detailed, alternating-offer bargaining data from eBay, deriving bounds on buyers and sellers private value distributions and the gains from trade using a range of assumptions on behavior and the informational environment. These assumptions range from weak (assuming only that acceptance and rejection decisions are rational) to less weak (e.g., assuming that bargaining offers are weakly increasing in players' private values). We estimate the bounds and show what they imply for consumer negotiation behavior and inefficient breakdown. For the median product, bargaining ends in impasse in 37% of negotiations even when the buyer values the good more than the seller.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"161-194"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seeding a Simple Contagion 播下一种简单的传染
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22448
Evan Sadler
{"title":"Seeding a Simple Contagion","authors":"Evan Sadler","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22448","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I propose a method for selecting seeds to maximize contagion. First, fit a random graph model using a coarse categorization of individuals. Next, compute a <i>seed multiplier</i> for each category—this is the average number of new infections a seed generates. Finally, seed the category with the highest multiplier. Relative to the most common methods, my approach requires far less granular data, and it consumes less computing power—the problem scales with the number of categories, not the number of individuals. I validate the methodology through simulations using real network data.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 1","pages":"71-93"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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