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The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing 监禁对就业、收入和纳税申报的影响
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22028
Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver
{"title":"The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing","authors":"Andrew Garin,&nbsp;Dmitri Koustas,&nbsp;Carl McPherson,&nbsp;Samuel Norris,&nbsp;Matthew Pecenco,&nbsp;Evan K. Rose,&nbsp;Yotam Shem-Tov,&nbsp;Jeffrey Weaver","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22028","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"503-538"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 2 《计量经济学》第93卷第2期
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932FM
{"title":"Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 2","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA932FM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA932FM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"i-ii"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating Candidate Valence 估计候选价
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20496
Kei Kawai, Takeaki Sunada
{"title":"Estimating Candidate Valence","authors":"Kei Kawai,&nbsp;Takeaki Sunada","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20496","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage-point differences in the vote share, on average. Eliminating differences in the valence of challengers and incumbents results in an increase in the winning probability of a challenger from 6.5% to 12.1%. Our measure of candidate valence can be used to study various substantive questions of political economy. We illustrate its usefulness by studying the source of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"463-501"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Tax Meet Arrow–Debreu 限额交易和碳税与阿罗-德布鲁会面
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22923
Robert M. Anderson, Haosui Duanmu
{"title":"Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Tax Meet Arrow–Debreu","authors":"Robert M. Anderson,&nbsp;Haosui Duanmu","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22923","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We propose two general equilibrium models, quota equilibrium, and emission tax equilibrium. Government specifies quotas or taxes on emissions, and then refrains from further action. All results remain valid regardless of how government chooses its emissions target. Quota equilibrium exists; the allocation of emission property rights impacts the distribution of welfare. If the only externality arises from total net emissions, quota equilibrium is Pareto optimal among all feasible outcomes with the same total net emissions. For certain tax rates, emission tax equilibrium may not exist. Every quota equilibrium can be realized as an emission tax equilibrium and vice versa. However, different quota prices may arise in equilibrium from a single quota, and different emission levels may arise in equilibrium from a single tax rate. This leads to inequivalence between quota and emission tax equilibria.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"357-393"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22923","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparative Statics With Adjustment Costs and the Le Chatelier Principle 具有调整成本的比较静力学与勒夏特列原理
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22841
Eddie Dekel, John K.-H. Quah, Ludvig Sinander
{"title":"Comparative Statics With Adjustment Costs and the Le Chatelier Principle","authors":"Eddie Dekel,&nbsp;John K.-H. Quah,&nbsp;Ludvig Sinander","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22841","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We develop a theory of monotone comparative statics for models with adjustment costs. We show that comparative-statics conclusions may be drawn under the usual ordinal complementarity assumptions on the objective function, assuming very little about costs: only a mild monotonicity condition is required. We use this insight to prove a general Le Chatelier principle: under the ordinal complementarity assumptions, if short-run adjustment is subject to a monotone cost, then the long-run response to a shock is greater than the short-run response. We extend these results to a fully dynamic model of adjustment over time: the Le Chatelier principle remains valid, and under slightly stronger assumptions, optimal adjustment follows a monotone path. We apply our results to models of saving, production, pricing, labor supply, and investment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"661-694"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22841","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
2024 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society 2024年计量经济学会会员选举
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932EF
{"title":"2024 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA932EF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA932EF","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"731-745"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data” 对“自回归条件持续时间：一种非规则间隔交易数据的新模型”的评论
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21896
Giuseppe Cavaliere, Thomas Mikosch, Anders Rahbek, Frederik Vilandt
{"title":"A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data”","authors":"Giuseppe Cavaliere,&nbsp;Thomas Mikosch,&nbsp;Anders Rahbek,&nbsp;Frederik Vilandt","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21896","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21896","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by-product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"719-729"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21896","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Feedback Design in Dynamic Moral Hazard 动态道德风险中的反馈设计
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21871
Jeffrey C. Ely, George Georgiadis, Luis Rayo
{"title":"Feedback Design in Dynamic Moral Hazard","authors":"Jeffrey C. Ely,&nbsp;George Georgiadis,&nbsp;Luis Rayo","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21871","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We study the joint design of dynamic incentives and performance feedback for an environment with a coarse (all-or-nothing) measure of performance, and show that hiding information from the agent can be an optimal way to motivate effort. Using a novel approach to incentive compatibility, we derive a two-phase solution that begins with a “silent phase” where the agent is given no feedback and is asked to work non-stop, and ends with a “full-transparency phase” where the agent stops working as soon as a performance threshold is met. Hiding information leads to greater effort, but an ignorant agent is also more expensive to motivate. The two-phase solution—where the agent's ignorance is fully frontloaded—stems from a “backward compounding effect” that raises the cost of hiding information as time passes.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"597-621"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21871","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses 脉冲响应的均匀先验
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21101
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel F. Waggoner
{"title":"Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses","authors":"Jonas E. Arias,&nbsp;Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez,&nbsp;Daniel F. Waggoner","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21101","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There has been a call for caution regarding the standard procedure for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the common practice of using a uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices induces a non-uniform prior for individual impulse responses or other quantities of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only sufficient but also necessary for inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution over the identified set for the vector of impulse responses. In addition, we show how to conduct inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution for the vector of impulse responses.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"695-718"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
People Are More Moral in Uncertain Environments 人们在不确定的环境中更有道德
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20574
Yiting Chen, Songfa Zhong
{"title":"People Are More Moral in Uncertain Environments","authors":"Yiting Chen,&nbsp;Songfa Zhong","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20574","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We conduct a series of experiments and document a robust behavioral pattern whereby people behave more morally in uncertain environments than degenerate deterministic ones. We show that this pattern is weakened when the moral implication of behavior is diminished or when uncertainty pertains to others rather than oneself. These findings are incompatible with standard models that respect dominance. We propose a mechanism based on the anxiety aspect of uncertain environments whereby people act morally as if their moral behavior can help deliver a better outcome. We further delve into the complexity aspect of uncertainty to arrive at a more comprehensive understanding of these findings.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"439-462"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20574","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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