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Random Votes to Parties and Policies in Coalition Governments 对联合政府中的政党和政策随机投票
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20942
Matteo Cervellati, Giorgio Gulino, Paolo Roberti
{"title":"Random Votes to Parties and Policies in Coalition Governments","authors":"Matteo Cervellati,&nbsp;Giorgio Gulino,&nbsp;Paolo Roberti","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20942","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We exploit a natural experiment involving a randomization of votes across parties within coalitions in all local elections in Italy for over a decade. A lottery on the position of party symbols in the ballot papers allows estimating the causal effect of increasing votes to parties for coalition policies. A non-marginal random boost of votes shifts budgetary spending towards the treated party's platform, but only for issues that are salient in that party's political manifesto. We study the chains of mechanisms mapping votes into policies and link it to an increase in bargaining power within legislative majorities. Parties leverage their higher electoral support to gain the appointment of politically affiliated cabinet members. Empowering different parties also leads to the selection of cabinets with different socio-demographic characteristics. The unintentional experiment helps shed new light on mechanisms mapping votes to parties into coalition policies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1553-1588"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20942","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Rise of Fiscal Capacity: Administration and State Consolidation in the Holy Roman Empire 财政能力的崛起：神圣罗马帝国的行政管理与国家整合
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20612
Davide Cantoni, Cathrin Mohr, Matthias Weigand
{"title":"The Rise of Fiscal Capacity: Administration and State Consolidation in the Holy Roman Empire","authors":"Davide Cantoni,&nbsp;Cathrin Mohr,&nbsp;Matthias Weigand","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20612","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>This paper studies the role of fiscal capacity in European state consolidation. Our analysis is organized around novel data on the territories and cities of the Holy Roman Empire in the early modern period. Territories implementing an early fiscal reform were more likely to survive, increased in size, and achieved a more compact extent. We provide evidence for the causal interpretation of these results and show key mechanisms: revenues, military investments, and marriage success. The imposition of Imperial taxes, quasi-random in timing and size, increased the benefits of an efficient tax administration on the side of rulers, driving the implementation of fiscal centralization. Within territories, Chambers became the dominant administrative institution, tilting the consolidating states toward absolutism.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1439-1472"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20612","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Comment on “Testing Models of Social Learning on Networks: Evidence From Two Experiments” 关于 "测试网络上的社会学习模型：来自两个实验的证据"
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22442
Marina Agranov, Benjamin Gillen, Dotan Persitz
{"title":"A Comment on “Testing Models of Social Learning on Networks: Evidence From Two Experiments”","authors":"Marina Agranov,&nbsp;Benjamin Gillen,&nbsp;Dotan Persitz","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22442","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 92 Iss. 5 Backmatter of Econometrica Vol.5
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA925BM
{"title":"Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 92 Iss. 5","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA925BM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA925BM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"iii-v"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Submission of Manuscripts to the Econometric Society Monograph Series 向计量经济学会专著丛书投稿
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA925SUM
{"title":"Submission of Manuscripts to the Econometric Society Monograph Series","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA925SUM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA925SUM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1775"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can Deficits Finance Themselves? 赤字能为自己筹资吗？
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21791
George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian, Christian K. Wolf
{"title":"Can Deficits Finance Themselves?","authors":"George-Marios Angeletos,&nbsp;Chen Lian,&nbsp;Christian K. Wolf","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21791","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We ask how fiscal deficits are financed in environments with two key features: (i) nominal rigidity, and (ii) a violation of Ricardian equivalence due to finite lives or liquidity constraints. In such environments, deficits can contribute to their own financing through two channels: a boom in real economic activity, which expands the tax base; and a surge in inflation, which erodes the real value of nominal government debt. Our main theoretical result establishes that this mechanism becomes more potent as fiscal adjustment is delayed, leading to full self-financing in the limit: if the monetary authority does not lean too heavily against the fiscal stimulus, then the government can run a deficit today, refrain from tax hikes or spending cuts in the future, and still see its debt converge back to its initial level. We further demonstrate that a significant degree of self-financing is achievable when the theory is disciplined by empirical evidence on marginal propensities to consume, nominal rigidities, the monetary policy reaction, and the speed of fiscal adjustment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1351-1390"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21791","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Historical Self-Governance and Norms of Cooperation 历史自治与合作规范
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20579
Devesh Rustagi
{"title":"Historical Self-Governance and Norms of Cooperation","authors":"Devesh Rustagi","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20579","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Does self-governance, a hallmark of democratic societies, foster norms of generalized cooperation? Does this effect persist, and if so, why? I investigate these questions using a natural experiment in Switzerland. In the Middle Ages, the absence of an heir resulted in the extinction of a prominent noble dynasty. As a result, some Swiss municipalities became self-governing, whereas the others remained under feudalism for another 600 years. Evidence from a behavioral experiment, the World Values Survey and the Swiss Household Panel consistently show that individuals from historically self-governing municipalities exhibit stronger norms of cooperation today. Referenda data on voter-turnout allow me to trace these effects on individually costly and socially beneficial actions for over 150 years. Furthermore, norms of cooperation map into prosocial behaviors like charitable giving and environmental protection. Uniquely, Switzerland tracks every family's place of origin in registration data, which I use to demonstrate persistence from cultural transmission in a context of historically low migration.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1473-1502"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20579","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty 供应链不确定性下的内生生产网络
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20629
Alexandr Kopytov, Bineet Mishra, Kristoffer Nimark, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel
{"title":"Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty","authors":"Alexandr Kopytov,&nbsp;Bineet Mishra,&nbsp;Kristoffer Nimark,&nbsp;Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20629","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the production network and the level and volatility of macroeconomic aggregates. When uncertainty increases in the model, producers prefer to purchase from more stable suppliers, even though they might sell at higher prices. The resulting reorganization of the network tends to reduce macroeconomic volatility, but at the cost of a decline in aggregate output. The model also predicts that more productive and stable firms have higher Domar weights—a measure of their importance as suppliers—in the equilibrium network. We provide a basic calibration of the model using U.S. data to evaluate the importance of these mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1621-1659"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exact Bias Correction for Linear Adjustment of Randomized Controlled Trials 随机对照试验线性调整的精确偏差校正
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20289
Haoge Chang, Joel A. Middleton, P. M. Aronow
{"title":"Exact Bias Correction for Linear Adjustment of Randomized Controlled Trials","authors":"Haoge Chang,&nbsp;Joel A. Middleton,&nbsp;P. M. Aronow","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20289","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Freedman (2008a,b) showed that the linear regression estimator is biased for the analysis of randomized controlled trials under the randomization model. Under Freedman's assumptions, we derive exact closed-form bias corrections for the linear regression estimator. We show that the limiting distribution of the bias corrected estimator is identical to the uncorrected estimator. Taken together with results from Lin (2013), our results show that Freedman's theoretical arguments against the use of regression adjustment can be resolved with minor modifications to practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1503-1519"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression 空间单位根与虚假回归
IF 6.6 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21654
Ulrich K. Müller, Mark W. Watson
{"title":"Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression","authors":"Ulrich K. Müller,&nbsp;Mark W. Watson","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21654","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes a model for, and investigates the consequences of, strong spatial dependence in economic variables. Our findings echo those of the corresponding “unit root” time series literature: Spatial unit root processes induce spuriously significant regression results, even with clustered standard errors or spatial HAC corrections. We develop large-sample valid unit root and stationarity tests that can detect such strong spatial dependence. Finally, we use simulations to study strategies for valid inference in regressions with persistent spatial data, such as spatial analogues of first-differencing transformations. Regressions from Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez (2014) are used to illustrate the issues and methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 5","pages":"1661-1695"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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