发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Econometrica最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Rural Migrants and Urban Informality: Evidence From Brazil 农村移民与城市非正式性：来自巴西的证据
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21854
Clement Imbert, Gabriel Ulyssea
{"title":"Rural Migrants and Urban Informality: Evidence From Brazil","authors":"Clement Imbert,&nbsp;Gabriel Ulyssea","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21854","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the economic effects of rural-urban migration on Brazilian cities. Using a shift-share IV design, we show that, over a decade, drought-induced immigration reduces informality, has no effect on unemployment, and increases the number of formal firms and jobs. Downward formal wage adjustments play a key role, as these long-run effects are weaker in regions with stronger wage rigidity. In the short run, when wage rigidity is strongest, we replicate the informality-increasing effects documented in the literature. We develop and estimate a model of firm dynamics and informality that rationalizes these results. The counterfactuals reveal that, in the short run, the informal sector absorbs the expanding labor force and acts as a “stepping-stone” to formality for firms and workers. In the long run, however, it reduces the aggregate benefits from immigration by allowing the least productive firms to survive.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 3","pages":"911-939"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21854","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148194066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comment on ‘Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Contracting Over Pharmaceutical Formularies and Rebates’ by Kate Ho and Robin S. Lee 评论Kate Ho和Robin S. Lee的“Fisher-Schultz讲座：签约药物处方和回扣”
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23938
Sylvia Hristakeva
{"title":"Comment on ‘Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Contracting Over Pharmaceutical Formularies and Rebates’ by Kate Ho and Robin S. Lee","authors":"Sylvia Hristakeva","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23938","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 3","pages":"735-737"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148193938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Communicating Scientific Uncertainty via Approximate Posteriors 通过近似后验传达科学的不确定性
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22613
Isaiah Andrews, Jesse M. Shapiro
{"title":"Communicating Scientific Uncertainty via Approximate Posteriors","authors":"Isaiah Andrews,&nbsp;Jesse M. Shapiro","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22613","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We cast the problem of communicating scientific uncertainty as one of reporting a posterior distribution on an unknown parameter to an audience of Bayesian decision-makers. We establish novel bounds on the audience's regret when the analyst reports an approximation to a posterior that the audience treats as exact. Under a palatable restriction on the audience's decision problems, the bounds take an especially convenient form. Under a further restriction on the audience's priors, a bootstrap distribution can be used as a stand-in posterior. We propose a practical recipe for checking whether a conventional statistical report (say, a normal parameterized by a point estimate and standard error) is a good approximation, and for improving the report if it is not. We illustrate our proposals using the articles in the 2021 <i>American Economic Review</i> that use a bootstrap for inference.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 3","pages":"843-875"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148193943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comment on ‘Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations’ by Jean Tirole 评论让·梯若尔的《资产泡沫和代际重叠》
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA24365
Ngoc-Sang Pham, Alexis Akira Toda
{"title":"Comment on ‘Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations’ by Jean Tirole","authors":"Ngoc-Sang Pham,&nbsp;Alexis Akira Toda","doi":"10.3982/ECTA24365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA24365","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles solves the capital over-accumulation problem. His Proposition 1(c) claims that if the dividend growth rate is above the bubbleless interest rate (the steady-state interest rate in the economy without the asset) but below the population growth rate, then bubbles are necessary in the sense that there exists no bubbleless equilibrium but there exists a unique bubbly equilibrium. We show that this result (as stated) is incorrect by presenting an example economy that satisfies all assumptions of Proposition 1(c) but its unique equilibrium is bubbleless. We also restore Proposition 1(c) under the additional assumptions that initial capital is sufficiently large and dividends are sufficiently small. We show through examples that these conditions are essential.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 3","pages":"1027-1044"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148194065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Work Hours Mismatch 工作时间不匹配
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21849
Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Raffaele Saggio, Stephen A. Woodbury
{"title":"Work Hours Mismatch","authors":"Marta Lachowska,&nbsp;Alexandre Mas,&nbsp;Raffaele Saggio,&nbsp;Stephen A. Woodbury","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21849","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We apply a revealed preference approach to administrative data from Washington to show that constraints on work hours are widespread: Workers have limited discretion over hours at a given employer, and there is substantial mismatch of workers who prefer long hours to employers that provide short hours. Voluntary job transitions imply a ratio of the marginal rate of substitution of earnings for hours to the wage rate of 0.5–0.6 for prime-age workers. The average absolute deviation between observed and optimal hours is about 15%, and low-wage workers face particularly acute constraints on hours. On average, observed hours tend to be less than preferred levels, and workers would require a 12% higher wage with their current employer to be as well off as with an employer offering ideal hours. These findings suggest that hour constraints are an equilibrium feature of the labor market because long-hour jobs are costly to employers.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 3","pages":"991-1025"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148194064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Continuity of the Distribution Function of the argmax of a Gaussian Process 高斯过程argmax分布函数的连续性
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23862
Matias D. Cattaneo, Gregory F. Cox, Michael Jansson, Kenichi Nagasawa
{"title":"Continuity of the Distribution Function of the argmax of a Gaussian Process","authors":"Matias D. Cattaneo,&nbsp;Gregory F. Cox,&nbsp;Michael Jansson,&nbsp;Kenichi Nagasawa","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23862","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the arg max of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such asymptotic distributions admit a continuous distribution function. The plausibility of the sufficient conditions is demonstrated by verifying them in three examples, namely, maximum score estimation, empirical risk minimization, and threshold regression estimation. In turn, the continuity result buttresses several recently proposed inference procedures whose validity seems to require a result of the kind established herein. A notable feature of the high-level assumptions is that one of them is designed to enable us to employ the Cameron–Martin theorem. In a leading special case, the assumption in question is demonstrably weak and appears to be close to minimal.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 3","pages":"941-955"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148194067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Complexity of Multidimensional Learning in Agriculture 农业多维学习的复杂性
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22974
Rachid Laajaj, Karen Macours
{"title":"The Complexity of Multidimensional Learning in Agriculture","authors":"Rachid Laajaj,&nbsp;Karen Macours","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22974","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA22974","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Studies on agricultural technology adoption often focus on one input, practice, or package, which is analytically useful, but may overlook the complexities involved with multidimensional learning needed for a lot of agricultural decisions. In Kenya, we study farmers' dynamic learning (from oneself and others) and adoption decisions over six seasons after randomly inviting them to participate in agronomic research trials, comparing different combinations of inputs during three consecutive seasons. As a response to the trials, adoption increases steadily despite the absence of positive profits multiple seasons after exposure to the trials. Know-how increases rapidly and faster for high skill farmers who experiment the most, at the cost of making new mistakes. The findings are consistent with a theoretical model with multidimensionality of input and practice decisions and differential learning from one's own experience by skills, where complementarities imply that adoption of an input requires finding how to re-optimize other dimensions, which adds to the cost of adoption.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"465-503"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22974","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Firm Accommodation After Workplace Disability: Labor Market Impacts and Implications for Subsidy Design 工作场所残疾后的企业住宿：劳动力市场影响及补贴设计的启示
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22565
Naoki Aizawa, Corina Mommaerts, Stephanie Rennane
{"title":"Firm Accommodation After Workplace Disability: Labor Market Impacts and Implications for Subsidy Design","authors":"Naoki Aizawa,&nbsp;Corina Mommaerts,&nbsp;Stephanie Rennane","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22565","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA22565","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the labor market impacts of firm accommodation decisions after workplace disability and assesses implications for the design of firm subsidies. We leverage a workers' compensation (WC) program in Oregon that provides wage subsidies to firms for accommodating workers with workplace disabilities. Leveraging rich administrative data and a policy change to the wage subsidy, we show that accommodation rates respond to the subsidy rate and that receipt of accommodation leads to a significant increase in employment and earnings a year later. To explore welfare implications, we develop and estimate a frictional labor market model of accommodation as a form of human capital investment. Worker turnover and imperfect experience rating in WC lead to underaccommodation and inefficient labor market outcomes after workplace disability. Counterfactual simulations show that subsidizing accommodation not only improves long-run labor market outcomes of workers experiencing work-related disability but also yields welfare gains for most workers.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"341-374"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22565","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
2025 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society 2025年计量经济学会会员选举
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA942EF
{"title":"2025 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA942EF","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA942EF","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"679-687"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality 贸易和国内扭曲：非正式的例子
IF 7.1 1区 经济学
Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19378
Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
{"title":"Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality","authors":"Rafael Dix-Carneiro,&nbsp;Pinelopi Goldberg,&nbsp;Costas Meghir,&nbsp;Gabriel Ulyssea","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19378","DOIUrl":"10.3982/ECTA19378","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the effects of international trade in the presence of a set of domestic distortions giving rise to informality, a prevalent phenomenon in developing countries. In our quantitative model, the informal sector arises from burdensome taxes and regulations that are imperfectly enforced by the government. In equilibrium, smaller, less productive firms face fewer distortions than larger, more productive ones, potentially leading to substantial misallocation. We show that in settings with a large informal sector, the gains from trade are significantly amplified, as reductions in trade barriers imply a reallocation of resources from initially less distorted to more distorted firms. We confirm findings from earlier reduced-form studies that the informal sector mitigates the impact of negative labor demand shocks on unemployment. Nonetheless, the informal sector can exacerbate the adverse real income effects of economic downturns, amplifying misallocation. Last, our research sheds light on the relationship between trade openness and cross-firm wage inequality.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"94 2","pages":"573-618"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA19378","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：604180095
Book学术官方微信
小红书