Econometrica最新文献

{"title":"Equilibrium Grading Policies With Implications for Female Interest in STEM Courses","authors":"Tom Ahn,&nbsp;Peter Arcidiacono,&nbsp;Amy Hopson,&nbsp;James Thomas","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17876","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We show that stricter grading policies in STEM courses reduce STEM enrollment, especially for women. We estimate a model of student demand for courses and optimal effort choices given professor grading policies. Grading policies are treated as equilibrium objects that in part depend on student demand for courses. Differences in demand for STEM and non-STEM courses explain much of why STEM classes give lower grades. Restrictions on grading policies that equalize average grades across classes reduce the STEM gender gap and increase overall enrollment in STEM classes.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141251389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reply to: Comment on “A Modern Gauss–Markov Theorem”","authors":"Bruce E. Hansen","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22362","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>This note makes a brief response to Portnoy (2022) and Pötscher and Preinerstorfer (2024), and discusses what instructors should teach about best unbiased estimation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22362","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141251387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reply to: Comments on “Walras–Bowley Lecture: Market Power and Wage Inequality”","authors":"Shubhdeep Deb,&nbsp;Jan Eeckhout,&nbsp;Aseem Patel,&nbsp;Lawrence Warren","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22384","url":null,"abstract":"<p><span><span>Violante</span></span> <span>(</span><span><span>2023</span></span><span>) and</span> <span><span>Van Reenen</span></span> <span>(</span><span><span>2023</span></span><span>)</span> offer a comprehensive review of the lecture and point out the key aspects of the paper. We are grateful for their comments which have greatly improved this research.</p><p>Our goals in this paper are twofold: (a) to provide a methodological framework that jointly incorporates goods market power (oligopoly) and labor market power (oligopsony) in a general equilibrium setting, and (b) to propose an empirical strategy for applying such a framework to microdata to estimate key structural parameters and a joint distribution of establishment-level productivity. Combined, these features allow us to quantify the relative importance of technological change and changes in market structure on the labor market, in particular on the evolution of wages, wage stagnation, and wage inequality. The main insight of our model is that market power and wage inequality are both endogenous objects, determined simultaneously in equilibrium by (1) the market structure (the number of competing firms); (2) the dispersion of establishment-level productivity; and (3) the substitutability parameters in the product and labor markets.</p><p>We find that a change in the market structure (excluding changes in the dispersion of productivity and within- and between-market substitutability parameters) accounts for 8.1% of the rise in the skill premium, and 54.8% of the increase in between-establishment inequality. Our analysis also establishes that technology is indeed the main driver of wage inequality, whereas the decline in competition is behind the increasing gap between wages and productivity.</p><p>Both commentators rightly point out that our assumption of perfectly <i>overlapping boundaries</i> between product and labor markets is strong. We agree, and nonetheless maintain this simplifying assumption for two reasons. The first is for computational tractability, as allowing for non-overlapping boundaries greatly increases the dimensionality of the system of equations needed to compute the economy's equilibrium.¹ Second, we estimate market structure without using industry, occupation, or geography-based definitions, which would be considerably more challenging without overlapping boundaries.² Additional future work is needed to establish whether, in which direction, and by what magnitude non-overlapping markets will alter our results with multiple skilled inputs. Despite the simplification in our analysis, our model provides a computationally tractable way to analyze the effect of imperfect competition on labor market inequality.</p><p>Both commentators further emphasize the need to carefully disentangle the <i>sources</i> of firms' market power. We agree that it is important to understand whether rising markups are due to lax antitrust enforcement or to past inve","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141251425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Networks, Barriers, and Trade","authors":"David Rezza Baqaee,&nbsp;Emmanuel Farhi","doi":"10.3982/ECTA17513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17513","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study a flexible class of trade models with international production networks and arbitrary wedge-like distortions like markups, tariffs, or nominal rigidities. We characterize the general equilibrium response of variables to shocks in terms of microeconomic statistics. Our results are useful for decomposing the sources of real GDP and welfare growth, and for computing counterfactuals. Using the same set of microeconomic sufficient statistics, we also characterize societal losses from increases in tariffs and iceberg trade costs and dissect the qualitative and quantitative importance of accounting for disaggregated details. Our results, which can be used to compute approximate and exact counterfactuals, provide an analytical toolbox for studying large-scale trade models and help to bridge the gap between computation and theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Production and Learning in Teams","authors":"Kyle Herkenhoff,&nbsp;Jeremy Lise,&nbsp;Guido Menzio,&nbsp;Gordon M. Phillips","doi":"10.3982/ECTA16748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16748","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To what extent is a worker's human capital growth affected by the quality of his coworkers? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a model in which the productivity and the human capital growth of an individual depend on the average human capital of his coworkers. The measured production function is supermodular: The marginal product of a more knowledgeable individual is increasing in the human capital of his coworkers. The measured human capital accumulation function is convex: An individual's human capital growth is increasing in coworkers' human capital only when paired with more knowledgeable coworkers, but independent of coworkers' human capital when paired with less knowledgeable coworkers. Learning from coworkers accounts for two thirds of the stock of human capital accumulated on the job. Technological changes that increase production supermodularity lead to labor market segregation and, by reducing the opportunities for low human capital workers to learn from better coworkers, lead to a decline in aggregate human capital and output.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bootstrap Inference for Fixed-Effect Models","authors":"Ayden Higgins,&nbsp;Koen Jochmans","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20712","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The maximum-likelihood estimator of nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects is asymptotically biased under rectangular-array asymptotics. The literature has devoted substantial effort to devising methods that correct for this bias as a means to salvage standard inferential procedures. The chief purpose of this paper is to show that the (recursive, parametric) bootstrap replicates the asymptotic distribution of the (uncorrected) maximum-likelihood estimator and of the likelihood-ratio statistic. This justifies the use of confidence sets and decision rules for hypothesis testing constructed via conventional bootstrap methods. No modification for the presence of bias needs to be made.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attributes: Selective Learning and Influence","authors":"Arjada Bardhi","doi":"10.3982/ECTA18355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18355","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An agent selectively samples attributes of a complex project so as to influence the decision of a principal. The players disagree about the weighting, or relevance, of attributes. The correlation across attributes is modeled through a Gaussian process, the covariance function of which captures pairwise attribute similarity. The key trade-off in sampling is between the alignment of the players' posterior values for the project and the variability of the principal's decision. Under a natural property of the attribute correlation—the <i>nearest-attribute property</i> (NAP)—each optimal attribute is relevant for some player and at most two optimal attributes are relevant for only one player. We derive comparative statics in the strength of attribute correlation and examine the robustness of our findings to violations of NAP for a tractable class of distance-based covariances. The findings carry testable implications for attribute-based product evaluation and strategic selection of pilot sites.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Randomization Tests for Peer Effects in Group Formation Experiments","authors":"Guillaume Basse,&nbsp;Peng Ding,&nbsp;Avi Feller,&nbsp;Panos Toulis","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20134","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>Measuring the effect of peers on individuals' outcomes is a challenging problem, in part because individuals often select peers who are similar in both observable and unobservable ways. Group formation experiments avoid this problem by randomly assigning individuals to groups and observing their responses; for example, do first-year students have better grades when they are randomly assigned roommates who have stronger academic backgrounds? In this paper, we propose randomization-based permutation tests for group formation experiments, extending classical Fisher Randomization Tests to this setting. The proposed tests are justified by the randomization itself, require relatively few assumptions, and are exact in finite samples. This approach can also complement existing strategies, such as linear-in-means models, by using a regression coefficient as the test statistic. We apply the proposed tests to two recent group formation experiments.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA20134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward a General Theory of Peer Effects","authors":"Vincent Boucher,&nbsp;Michelle Rendall,&nbsp;Philip Ushchev,&nbsp;Yves Zenou","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21048","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>There is substantial empirical evidence showing that peer effects matter in many activities. The workhorse model in empirical work on peer effects is the linear-in-means (LIM) model, whereby it is assumed that agents are linearly affected by the mean action of their peers. We develop a new general model of peer effects that relaxes the linear assumption of the best-reply functions and the mean peer behavior and that encompasses the spillover, conformist model, and LIM model as special cases. Then, using data on adolescent activities in the United States, we structurally estimate this model. We find that for many activities, individuals do not behave according to the LIM model. We run some counterfactual policies and show that imposing the mean action as an individual social norm is misleading and leads to incorrect policy implications.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2023 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA922EF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA922EF","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140161448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}