{"title":"Make it burn? Wildfires, disaster aid and presidential approval","authors":"Michael Berlemann , Marina Eurich , Timur Eckmann","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For governments, the occurrence of natural disasters creates the opportunity to demonstrate their willingness and competence in providing prompt and efficient disaster aid. A number of studies has investigated the political consequences of providing disaster aid by analyzing the effects of such aid on subsequent election results. However, the findings of these studies have not yielded a coherent picture. This paper makes a contribution to the existing literature by employing high-frequency (daily) survey data on presidential approval. The combination of this data with wildfire data and information on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid approvals and denials reveals that Barack Obama gained in support among survey respondents for whom FEMA aid was approved by the president, while he was not punished for denials of FEMA assistance. We show that this effect is exclusively driven by respondents without party affiliation and that the effect is temporary.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102738"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On regression-adjusted imputation estimators of average treatment effects","authors":"Zhexiao Lin , Fang Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to augmented inverse probability weighting. Accordingly, people for a long time conjectured that such estimators, while avoiding directly constructing the weights, are also doubly robust (Imbens, 2004; Stuart, 2010). Generalizing an earlier result of the authors (Lin et al., 2023), this paper formalizes this conjecture, showing that a large class of regression-adjusted imputation methods are indeed doubly robust for estimating average treatment effects. In addition, they are provably semiparametrically efficient as long as both the density and regression models are correctly specified. Notable examples of imputation methods covered by our theory include kernel matching, (weighted) nearest neighbor matching, local linear matching, and (honest) random forests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 106080"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yucel Can Severcan , Goksun Yildirim , Nese Aydin , Eftade O. Gaga , Ozlem Ozden Uzmez , Aybuke Balahun Coban , Gonenc Ozarli
{"title":"Associations between the built environment and concentrations of outdoor particulate matter in children's everyday places","authors":"Yucel Can Severcan , Goksun Yildirim , Nese Aydin , Eftade O. Gaga , Ozlem Ozden Uzmez , Aybuke Balahun Coban , Gonenc Ozarli","doi":"10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the growing research on the relationship between the built environment (BE), outdoor air quality, and children's respiratory health, our understanding of how to plan and design children's everyday places with better air quality is limited. This study investigates the associations between BE attributes and concentrations of outdoor particulate matter (PM) in children's everyday places. The results are based on PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> measurements in 154 highly frequented outdoor places of 1687 nine-to fourteen-year-old children living in Ankara, Türkiye, in heating season. To analyze the relationship between variables, Pearson correlation and stepwise regression analysis were used. Findings show that, among the examined BE characteristics of children's places, only neighborhood greenness and proximity to polluting industrial facilities are significantly associated with PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations. Two additional factors are significantly associated with PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations: building density and land use mix. These results suggest that urban planners and designers should place greater emphasis on creating highly dense, mixed-use and green neighborhoods away from polluting industrial areas to promote children's health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48376,"journal":{"name":"Habitat International","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103563"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vanessa Cirulli , Giorgia Marini , Marco A. Marini , Odd Rune Straume
{"title":"Do hospital mergers reduce waiting times? Theory and evidence from the English NHS","authors":"Vanessa Cirulli , Giorgia Marini , Marco A. Marini , Odd Rune Straume","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyse — both theoretically and empirically — the effect of hospital mergers on waiting times in healthcare markets where prices are fixed. Using a spatial modelling framework where patients choose provider based on travelling distance and waiting times, we show that the effect is theoretically ambiguous. In the presence of cost synergies, the scope for lower waiting times as a result of the merger is larger if the hospitals are more profit-oriented. This result is arguably confirmed by our empirical analysis, which is based on difference-in-differences estimations using a long panel of data on hospital merger in the English National Health Service (NHS). While we find that hospital mergers lead to higher waiting times on average, we also show that the effects of a merger on waiting times crucially rely on a legal status that can reasonably be linked to the degree of profit-orientation. Whereas hospital mergers involving Foundation Trusts tend to reduce waiting times, the corresponding effect of mergers involving hospitals without this legal status tends to go in the opposite direction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"238 ","pages":"Article 107196"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Filipe Campante , Rui Du , Weizeng Sun , Jianghao Wang , Siqi Zheng
{"title":"JUE insight: Political geography and the spatial allocation of economic activity: Evidence from China’s anti-corruption campaign","authors":"Filipe Campante , Rui Du , Weizeng Sun , Jianghao Wang , Siqi Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2025.103797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show evidence of how political geography directly shapes real economic outcomes by studying the spatial impact on Beijing’s restaurant sector of China’s 2012 anti-corruption campaign, which placed strict limits on lavish spending by public officials. Restaurants located closer to government offices experienced a relative decline in consumer demand. The post-campaign distribution of establishments was less spatially concentrated around government offices and had a smaller presence of high-end restaurants than before the campaign. Our results underscore the role of political geography as a potent, spatially concentrated driver of demand and its influence on the configuration of economic activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103797"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144904506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Do you think that coal will finish?”: The (Im)possibilities of living with and without coal in a central Indian coalfield","authors":"Radhika Krishnan , Patrik Oskarsson , Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article seeks to understand how experiences of coal extraction and use shape local perspectives on energy transitions. It does this by exploring community struggles over land and labour in India's largest coalfield Korba in Chhattisgarh state. While the Indian government has announced that the country will have net zero emissions by 2070, continuing coal mine expansions built on the dispossession of rural poor and indigenous groups dramatically shape lives, economies and aspirations, and with them expectations around a potential transition away from coal. At the moment coal provides stability and continuity in the context of a depressed agricultural sector and limited non-farm employment opportunities. The coal sector is in this manner a source of hope and aspirations for many, while simultaneously creating enormous social and ecological disruptions. In the article we place specific focus on the interlinked roles of land and labour in the production of fossil-free futures situated within agrarian relations. Long-term resistance to land acquisition for coal mining is in recent years accompanied by the emergence of new relationships that coal communities are forging around land as a transactional asset, to be bartered for mining company jobs, or simply used as a speculative asset which may yield future pay-off as mining continues to expand. Based on a close reading of everyday micro-level negotiations, this paper argues that the possibilities for justice in a post-coal future is rendered complicated by existing coal economy dependencies and narrow conceptions of compensation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 104304"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144902248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off","authors":"Rufei Guo, Junjian Yi, Junsen Zhang, Ning Zhang","doi":"10.1086/736768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/736768","url":null,"abstract":"Journal of Political Economy, Ahead of Print. <br/>","PeriodicalId":16875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Political Economy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144905777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financing climate-resilient infrastructure through long-term green bond","authors":"Jianxin Guo , Xianchun Tan , Yonglong Cheng , Xiangyin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108757","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108757","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the urgency for climate change adaptation measures intensifies, the significance of financing for such adaptations has garnered considerable attention. Nevertheless, the formulation of effective adaptation financing mechanisms presents a complex and formidable challenge. This study seeks to examine several critical elements within a typical adaptation financing framework, specifically focusing on green bonds, to assess their influence on the design of bond issuance cycle. We develop a continuous time model that integrates adaptation strategies with the financing process and perform a theoretical analysis of pivotal decisions involved in investment and financing, including the allocation of adaptation resources, financing and repayment structures, and issuance cycles. The model’s efficacy is subsequently validated through a case study on hydropower management. Furthermore, we conduct an empirical assessment of various key factors that influence the cycle of green bond issuance. Our theoretical findings indicate that an increase in the marginal utility of adaptation investment correlates with enhanced financing efficiency, necessitating that decision-makers adopt proactive financing strategies. Additionally, both heightened production efficiency and increased climate uncertainty are associated with extended bond issuance cycles. Our empirical analysis further reveals that the influence of bond interest rates on the issuance cycle is more pronounced in long-term bonds, potentially encouraging firms to pursue more preemptive adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 108757"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Over‐the‐Counter Markets for Nonstandardized Assets","authors":"YOSHIO NOZAWA, ANTON TSOY","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13483","url":null,"abstract":"We study a search and bargaining model of over‐the‐counter markets for nonstandardized assets of heterogeneous quality. Once matched, investors privately learn their values positively correlated with asset quality. Bargaining results in delay that is hump‐shaped in quality and U‐shaped in asset turnover. We document these patterns in commercial real estate and corporate bonds markets. Extreme qualities are little affected by changes in asset standardization, while intermediate qualities are more susceptible. For nonstandardized assets, opacity ensures active trading of all assets, which explains why their trading is decentralized and suggests that trade centralization should come with greater standardization.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144905760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Resources PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-26DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105731
Marco A. Cotrina-Teatino , Jairo J. Marquina-Araujo , Jose N. Mamani-Quispe , José A. Guartán , Aldo R. Castillo-Chung , Solio M. Arango-Retamozo , Joe A. González-Vasquez , Salomon M. Ortiz-Quintanilla
{"title":"Strategic potential assessment of lanthanum and scandium through geochemical-lithological analysis with unsupervised machine learning in southern Ecuador","authors":"Marco A. Cotrina-Teatino , Jairo J. Marquina-Araujo , Jose N. Mamani-Quispe , José A. Guartán , Aldo R. Castillo-Chung , Solio M. Arango-Retamozo , Joe A. González-Vasquez , Salomon M. Ortiz-Quintanilla","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The preliminary identification of areas with strategic geochemical potential poses a major challenge in mineral exploration when only surface-level and unclassified data are available. This study aimed to integrate geostatistical techniques with unsupervised machine learning algorithms to classify zones of high, medium, and low potential for lanthanum (La) and scandium (Sc) in southern Ecuador. A database comprising 3998 geochemical samples was used, with concentrations estimated via Ordinary Kriging (OK), employing variogram structures tailored to each element. The K-means, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), Mini-Batch K-means (MBKM), and Spectral Clustering (SC) algorithms were applied to the interpolated values to achieve automated spatial segmentation. Validation against a traditional percentile-based classification yielded high accuracy, with SC (accuracy = 0.898) and KM (0.860) performing best for La, and GMM (0.899) for Sc. Additionally, total metal contents per zone were estimated, reaching up to 725.10 t of La (average grade: 11.98 mg/kg) and 103.23 t of Sc (average grade: 2.08 mg/kg) in medium-potential zones according to GMM and SC, respectively. Strong lithological associations were identified, particularly highlighting the JUB unit as key for scandium occurrence. Overall, the results confirm that the combination of kriging and unsupervised clustering enables effective classification of mineralogical domains with high spatial coherence, providing a robust tool for prioritizing target areas in early exploration stages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 105731"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}