{"title":"State-dependent impulse responses in agent-based models: A new methodology and an economic application","authors":"Marco Amendola , Marcelo C. Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper delves into the potential of Agent-Based Models (ABM) in analysing phenomena characterized by the non-linear propagation of shocks and system dynamics. Recognizing that state dependency can naturally emerge in complex evolving systems, we present a new methodological framework to evaluate state-dependent (or non-linear) impulse response functions in an ABM setting. Inspired by threshold time series modelling approaches, we propose analysing state-dependent impulse responses by creating alternative controlled states of the system, from which randomized impulse responses can be computed. Furthermore, a data-driven, machine-learning algorithm is proposed to endogenously identify relevant system states for the observed response. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time such an approach is advanced. An R library implementing all the required methods is also offered to ensure applicability in diverse fields. Finally, the methodology is applied in economics to test for monetary policy shocks in a reference macro ABM, highlighting its effectiveness in mapping the system impulse response to the identified key state variables, as well as showing the importance of state dependence for policy design and systematic identification of critical system states.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"229 ","pages":"Article 106811"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
World DevelopmentPub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106815
Sung Eun Kim , Jong Hee Park , Inbok Rhee , Joonseok Yang
{"title":"What do aid recipients want? Public attitudes toward foreign aid in developing countries","authors":"Sung Eun Kim , Jong Hee Park , Inbok Rhee , Joonseok Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106815","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Individuals in developing countries are the ultimate end users of foreign aid. While the international donor community has emphasized the importance of aligning aid with recipient countries’ preferences, the literature on public opinion and foreign aid has remained largely focused on donors. Using an original conjoint experiment conducted in seven developing countries, we examine the determinants of public attitudes toward foreign aid in recipient countries. We find that the characteristics of donor countries and foreign aid projects significantly influence recipient attitudes, often more than the size of the aid packages themselves. Individuals in recipient countries consistently prefer aid from democracies and donors with transparent aid agencies, as well as aid delivered by international organizations rather than directly from donor countries’ aid agencies. These findings underscore the importance of multilateral aid agencies in aligning the preferences of donors and recipients.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"186 ","pages":"Article 106815"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142655147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
CitiesPub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105581
Mari Jaakonaho , Zinette Bergman
{"title":"Development agendas governing the common good – Unfolding planning approaches: A case study of Vantaa, Finland","authors":"Mari Jaakonaho , Zinette Bergman","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2024.105581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2024.105581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Contemporary debates suggest that market liberalisation has led to an unfavourable urban planning environment that impedes the ability of public authorities to pursue the common good. To study the significance and potential impact of this, our central line of inquiry was to examine how the common good is manifested within statutory plans in Vantaa, Finland, between 2015 and 2019. Using a mixed methods framework coupled with a refined typology of planning approaches, our findings demonstrate that the common good is orchestrated through three development agendas: public, private and common. In doing so, this study provides insights into the scholarly discourse surrounding the impact of market liberalisation on planning and highlights the importance of developing comprehensive strategies to promote the common good in urban planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 105581"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142657751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriel Jiménez , David Martinez-Miera , José-Luis Peydró
{"title":"Who truly bears (bank) taxes? Evidence from only shifting statutory incidence","authors":"Gabriel Jiménez , David Martinez-Miera , José-Luis Peydró","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the effects of <em>only</em> shifting the statutory incidence of taxes by exploiting: (i) a mortgage tax shift from being levied on borrowers to being levied on banks, <em>without</em> tax rate changes; (ii) some areas –for historical reasons– being tax-exempt (or having different tax rates); and (iii) administrative data. After the shift, the average mortgage rate increases, less for households with more banking opportunities or with higher income. The tax pass-through is nonexistent for high-income households, but complete for low-income households. Consistently, banks’ risk-taking increases, especially by more policy-affected banks. Results are consistent with a model in which all borrowers have tax saliency issues and differ in their bargaining power vis-à-vis the lender. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the irrelevance of statutory incidence and suggests unintended consequences on inequality and banks’ risk-taking.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105173"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Resources PolicyPub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105400
Qiang Wang, Fuyu Zhang, Rongrong Li, Siqi Zhang
{"title":"Reinvestigating the impact of natural resource rents on carbon emissions: Novel insights from geopolitical risks and economic complexity","authors":"Qiang Wang, Fuyu Zhang, Rongrong Li, Siqi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105400","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105400","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the relationship between natural resource rents and carbon emissions is crucial for achieving a balance between economic development and environmental sustainability. This study reinvestigates the impact of natural resource rents on carbon emissions and explores the threshold effects of geopolitical risks and economic complexity, aiming to provide a more comprehensive understanding of their relationship. Based on an empirical analysis of panel data from 38 countries between 1995 and 2021, the conclusions are as follows. (i) The panel ARDL estimation results reveal that natural resource rents increase carbon emissions over the long term, with this finding remaining robust after addressing endogeneity. (ii) The DPTR model results indicate that natural resource rents have a non-linear impact on carbon emissions, shaped by geopolitical risks and economic complexity. As geopolitical risks escalate, the effect of resource rents on carbon emissions shifts from a reduction to an increase. On the contrary, rising economic complexity reverses this impact, causing natural resource rents to reduce carbon emissions. (iii) Heterogeneity analysis results demonstrate that only the impact of oil and natural gas rents on carbon emissions is affected by high geopolitical risks. Additionally, in contexts of high economic complexity, oil, natural gas, and forest rents help reduce carbon emissions, while coal and mineral rents have a negative impact. Finally, policy implications for global resource management and environmental sustainability that combine geopolitical risk and economic complexity are proposed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 105400"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142658086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
CitiesPub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105584
Yonglong Cai , Di Yan , Wenhui Li , Song Liu
{"title":"The spatial dynamics of financial expenditure on science and technology in Chinese cities: Financial capacity and government competition","authors":"Yonglong Cai , Di Yan , Wenhui Li , Song Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2024.105584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2024.105584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current research tends to concentrate on total financial expenditure, rather than analyzing specific expenditures such as financial expenditure on science and technology (FEST). FEST become an important component of financial expenditure and is still under researched, which little is known about the key factors that have shaped the geographies of FEST at the city level. In this paper, we portray the spatial dynamics of FEST in Chinese cities, and examine the ways in which it is intertwined with institutional, political and economic factors. Our analysis shows that the national FEST scale has experienced a substantial rise in light of the Chinese government's emphasis on science and technology. Local governments spend more FEST scale than central government, but the spatial dynamic of local FEST are geographically uneven. Cities in underdeveloped and developed areas are also continuously increasing the FEST scale. Compared with prefecture-level cities, higher administrative cities spent more financial funds on science and technology. The spatial variation of FEST could be partly explained by two institutional factors: Financial capacity and government competition. Financial capacity is a key factor explaining the uneven spatial dynamics of FEST. Local governments with sufficient financial funds are more inclined to increase the FEST. Government competition will further inspire local governments to increase more FEST scale. Regression results confirm that financial capacity and government competition are both important to explain the geographies of FEST, and the effects of financial capacity and government competition on FEST exhibits time heterogeneity. We argue that ruinous government competition bids fair to become a quagmire of excessive FEST, which may run counter to the goal of demanding strictly controlling excessive financial investment in competitive fields proposed by the State Council.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 105584"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142657749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andreas Aristidou , Aleksandar Giga , Suk Lee , Fernando Zapatero
{"title":"Aspirational utility and investment behavior","authors":"Andreas Aristidou , Aleksandar Giga , Suk Lee , Fernando Zapatero","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103970","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103970","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the extent to which aspirations – such as those forged in the course of social interactions – explain ‘puzzling’ behavioral patterns in investment decisions. We motivate an aspirational utility, reminiscent of Friedman and Savage (1948), where social considerations (<em>e.g.</em>, status concerns) provide an economic foundation for aspirations. We show this utility can explain a range of observed investor behaviors, such as the demand for both right- and left-skewed assets; aspects of the disposition effect; and patterns in stock-market participation consistent with empirical observations. We corroborate our theoretical findings with two novel laboratory experimental studies, where we observed participants’ preference for skewness in risky lotteries shift as lab-induced aspirations shifted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 103970"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mehmet Y. Gürdal , Özgür Gürerk , Yeliz Kaçamak , Edip Kart
{"title":"How to increase and sustain cooperation in public goods games: Conditional commitments via a mediator","authors":"Mehmet Y. Gürdal , Özgür Gürerk , Yeliz Kaçamak , Edip Kart","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conditional commitment devices, such as price-matching guarantees, legal agreements, and smart contracts, can significantly enhance cooperation and improve outcomes in various scenarios. Despite their potential, empirical evidence of their effectiveness in the context of public goods is limited. This paper addresses this gap by demonstrating that conditional and binding commitments can indeed increase voluntary contributions to public goods. We begin by theoretically analyzing the impact of conditional commitments managed by a mediator on public good contributions. Our analysis shows that conditional commitments can be structured to achieve a Pareto Optimal Nash Equilibrium (PONE). We then validate our theoretical findings with laboratory experiments. The results reveal that when a PONE exists, nearly all participant groups adopt conditional commitments and achieve high levels of sustained cooperation. Conversely, when conditional commitments lead to socially inefficient outcomes, their use declines and cooperation levels drop significantly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 106789"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
CitiesPub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105585
Muxin Liu , Hailin Lan , Xi Liang , Jiaqi Chen , Yi Wu
{"title":"Strategic emerging enterprises drive city-level carbon emission efficiency in China","authors":"Muxin Liu , Hailin Lan , Xi Liang , Jiaqi Chen , Yi Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2024.105585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2024.105585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the substantial economic and environmental challenges faced by global cities, enhancing carbon emission efficiency at the city level is critical for achieving urban carbon neutrality. In this context, strategic emerging enterprises play a dual role, not only driving economic expansion but also acting as catalysts for environmental sustainability. By analyzing time series data from 2013 to 2022, covering 1805 listed companies in 30 provinces and 293 cities across China, this study explores the relationship between the growth of strategic emerging enterprises and carbon emission efficiency at both the city and regional levels. The findings show a positive spatial correlation between the expansion of these enterprises and increased carbon emission efficiency, with clear spillover effects across neighboring regions. Specifically, 1 % increase in carbon emission efficiency in one city or province leads to corresponding increases of 0.168 % and 0.187 % in surrounding areas. Furthermore, the results reveal a “U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between strategic emerging enterprise growth and carbon emission efficiency, where efficiency initially declines before improving. These results underscore the critical importance of balancing economic expansion with decarbonization objectives at the city level, offering valuable insights for shaping city-focused carbon reduction strategies across sub-national regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 105585"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142657748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local favoritism in China's public procurement: Information frictions or incentive distortion?","authors":"Wei TANG , Yuan WANG , Jiameng WU","doi":"10.1016/j.jue.2024.103716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jue.2024.103716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to disentangle the roles of information frictions and career incentives of local officials in the allocation of government contracts. Drawing on a unique dataset including both winning and losing bidders of public procurement auctions in China, we document a strong local bias in the contract allocation. These patterns are hardly reconciled with explanations rooted in information frictions or corruption. Instead, we highlight the role of local leaders’ career incentives, presenting evidence that local favoritism is more pronounced in localities with more incentivized mayors. Our findings prompt a reconsideration of the effectiveness of bureaucratic discretion in allocating public resources. (JEL H57, H77, H72, D73, R51)</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Economics","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 103716"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}