International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Droughts in India Using the RRV Index: Historical and Future Perspectives","authors":"Gaurav Ganjir,&nbsp;Manne Janga Reddy,&nbsp;Subhankar Karmakar","doi":"10.1002/joc.8914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8914","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The climate change brings increasingly serious challenges for society, one of which is the increase in extreme events. Extremes such as droughts have led to substantial impacts on the livelihood of humans and animals. Understanding the spatial extent of drought-prone regions is important for its assessment and effective management. The Reliability–Resilience–Vulnerability (RRV) integrated index map approach gives a fair idea about the drought-prone regions. This study conducted an extensive RRV analysis of droughts, using the drought properties duration and severity. These properties were assessed using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-3). The investigation is conducted across India, with precipitation data collected at a spatial resolution of 0.25°, utilising a dataset spanning 200 years (1901–2100). Historical data for 121 years (1901–2021) collected from the India Meteorological Department, and data for the future period (2022–2100) were collected from the NEX-GDDP, ACCESS CM_2 climate model for the SSP585 scenario. The analysis is carried out for five periods 1901–1940 (1st), 1941–1980 (2nd), 1981–2021 (3rd), 2022–2060 (4th), and 2061–2100 (5th). The spatial distribution of drought properties, namely duration and severity at the 50th, 70th, and 90th percentile levels, revealed the places with significant and prolonged drought conditions. From the integrated RRV index map, an increase in drought severity was observed until the 4th period, followed by a decline in the 5th period. Noticeable changes are observed in the distribution of the spatial extent of the map, indicating areas prone to drought (integrated RRV map) in India for the 2nd and 3rd periods compared to the 1st period. The results indicate a shift in drought-prone areas from traditionally arid and semi-arid regions to more humid regions. The time series analysis of percentage area of India under drought shows that there is a substantial increase up to the 4th period and then decreases in the 5th period. These findings can assist decision-makers and government bodies identify areas requiring urgent attention for drought management, enabling them to develop region-specific action plans.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Performance of Regional Climate Model Wind Speeds Over Canada","authors":"Michael Morris,&nbsp;Emilia Diaconescu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8912","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Human-induced climate change is reshaping wind patterns across Canada, posing significant challenges for sectors such as wind energy and infrastructure planning. This study assesses the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating near-surface wind speed (WS) across Canada by analysing outputs from various RCM ensembles, which downscale CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) output, including the NA-CORDEX multi-model ensemble (at 0.22° resolution) and the CanRCM4 single-model large ensemble (at 0.44° resolution). These RCM outputs are compared against observational data, two reanalysis data sets (ERA5 and AgERA5), and GCM ensembles from CMIP5 and CMIP6. The evaluation examines the models' ability to replicate historical WS distributions, biases in mean and extreme WS, trends and temporal variability. The findings reveal that, despite the higher spatial resolution of RCMs, their added value over the GCM ensembles is limited, raising concerns about the reliability of RCM-derived WS projections for climate services without further bias adjustment or statistical downscaling. The inability of both RCMs and GCMs to accurately simulate WS trends diminishes confidence in future WS projections, potentially leading to inadequate risk assessments and insufficient preparation for the impacts of climate change on vital sectors like energy and infrastructure.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8912","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensification of Heat Extremes in Southeast Asia: Spatial–Temporal Analysis of Temperature Trends and Heat Events (1940–2023)","authors":"Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8907","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the intensification of heat extremes in Southeast Asia from 1940 to 2023 using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) data, validated against Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) station observational (<i>r</i> = 0.83). Regional warming rates range from 0.138°C to 0.240°C per decade, with the 25-year trend indicating a stable increase of 0.198°C/decade (SD = 0.029). Key extreme temperature indices show significant increases: warm nights (TN90p) rose by 2.9 days/decade, warm days (TX90p) by 7.4 days/decade, maximum daily minimum temperatures (TNx) by 0.19°C/decade, and maximum daily maximum temperatures (TXx) by 0.33°C/decade. Spatial analysis reveals stronger warming in mainland areas—especially Thailand and Vietnam—than in maritime regions. Seasonal analysis highlights summer as the most affected season, though all seasons exhibit significant warming. Since 2000, there has been a marked rise in the frequency of extreme heat events. The top 1% hottest months have become more common, with moderate, severe and extreme heat events increasing by 0.39, 0.27 and 0.17 months/decade, respectively. Multi-month heat events, while still largely seasonal, have expanded in duration and spatial coverage, with some lasting up to 6months. Prolonged multi-month heat and expanding extreme temperatures signal intensifying regional warming, demanding urgent adaptation despite remaining seasonal.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating Wet-Seasonal NMME Precipitation Forecasts Over Brazil's Itaipu and Sobradinho Basins","authors":"Yu-Chuan Tien,&nbsp;Mekonnen Gebremichael,&nbsp;Renato Carlos Zambon","doi":"10.1002/joc.8882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8882","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Reliable seasonal precipitation forecasts are vital for managing hydroelectric power plants, particularly in regions with variable climate conditions. This study evaluates the performance of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) wet-season precipitation forecasts over two hydroelectric basins in Brazil: Itaipu, characterised by a humid subtropical climate, and Sobradinho, located in a semi-arid region. By assessing six NMME models against Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) data and comparing them with statistical models based on atmospheric-oceanic indices, the study identifies significant spatial and model-dependent variations in forecast skill. NMME models struggle with regional anomalies and extreme events, exhibiting systematic biases and limited predictive capability, particularly in drought-prone Sobradinho. In contrast, statistical models leveraging El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), and Tropical Southern Atlantic Index (TSA) indices demonstrate better predictive accuracy. Incorporating select NMME models as predictors improves statistical model performance, highlighting the potential of hybrid modelling approaches. The results emphasise the need for improved parameterisations, localised data integration, and machine learning-driven enhancements to refine seasonal precipitation forecasts for hydropower-critical regions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation Characteristics of Convective Activities in Different Climate Zones in Northern China Based on 25 Years of Satellite Observations","authors":"Weicheng Liu,&nbsp;Jixin Wang,&nbsp;Hongchao Zuo,&nbsp;Zhao Fu,&nbsp;Wei Xiao,&nbsp;Yu Cui,&nbsp;Zihan Zhou","doi":"10.1002/joc.8908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8908","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Northern China's complex climatic transitions between arid, monsoon and transitional zones create spatially divergent convective regimes with cascading impacts on extreme weather. Using 25 years (1996–2020) of multi-satellite observations, this study reveals that convective activities (CA) and deep convective activities (DCA) exhibit pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity governed by topography-circulation interactions. The eastern Tibetan Plateau slopes and Northeast China plains emerge as persistent hotspots, sustaining warm-season CA frequencies &gt; 4.5% with amplified diurnal cycles (peak-trough differences &gt; 3.4%), driven by plateau-induced thermal updrafts and nocturnal low-level jet convergence. In stark contrast, northwestern deserts show minimal activity (&lt; 0.4%) but extreme interannual variability (coefficient of variation &gt; 1.0), reflecting unstable moisture supply from fluctuating westerly troughs. Seasonally, May dominates convective intensity (8% CA frequency) as mid-latitude baroclinic systems collide with radiative heating, while September's minimum (0.6%) coincides with Western Pacific Subtropical High retreat. Unique to transitional zones, the Tibetan slopes host a secondary July DCA maximum (&gt; 3%) fueled by South Asian High-enhanced moisture transport. Mechanistically, random forest (RF) attribution identifies the Western Pacific Subtropical High (26% influence) and Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing (22%) as primary regulators—the former modulating monsoonal moisture influx, the latter amplifying convective instability through plateau-scale ascending motions. Transitional zones further respond to Eurasian zonal circulation shifts, explaining their hybrid diurnal signatures blending monsoonal and arid-region characteristics. By bridging satellite climatology with dynamical diagnostics, this work establishes a hierarchical framework where regional topography orchestrates continental-scale circulation feedbacks. The identified thresholds (e.g., 3.4% diurnal amplitude, 1.0 the coefficient of variation interannual variability) provide actionable metrics for forecasting convective extremes across climate transition zones—a critical advance for disaster resilience in vulnerable northern China.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-Occurring Wildfire Smoke and Extreme Heat in the Western United States From 2006 to 2020","authors":"Aron Walker,&nbsp;Rachel Connolly,&nbsp;Jenny T. Nguyen,&nbsp;Miriam E. Marlier","doi":"10.1002/joc.8905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8905","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Warming and drying meteorological conditions associated with anthropogenic climate change have increased the risk of extreme heat and wildfire in many regions around the world. Extreme heat and wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (smoke PM_2.5) individually contribute to substantial global morbidity and mortality burdens, while emerging evidence suggests that co-occurring heat and smoke events may have synergistic impacts that exacerbate adverse health outcomes. Despite the potential for a high societal burden, these co-occurring events are an underexplored climate-related hazard. To quantify the co-occurrence of extreme heat and wildfire smoke, we combined daily estimates of heat index (a combination of temperature and relative humidity) and smoke PM_2.5 over the western United States to document the spatiotemporal patterns of the frequency, duration and intensity of individual and co-occurring extreme events from 2006 to 2020. We found 130 million person-days of exposure to co-occurring exceedances over the 15-year study period. These events were found most often in late summer when the temporal distributions of heat and smoke PM_2.5 exceedances typically coincide, and spatially from northern California to western Montana where extreme heat and smoke most often overlap. To the best of our knowledge, this study presents the largest database of population-level exposure to co-occurring extreme heat and wildfire smoke events. We also show that the specific definitions of extreme heat and smoke events can substantially affect both the number and spatial distribution of co-occurring extreme events, with implications for future epidemiological or climate studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8905","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Optimal and Flexible Approach for Drought Quantification Based on Standardised Indices","authors":"Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano,&nbsp;Fergus Reig,&nbsp;Santiago Beguería,&nbsp;Ahmed El-Kenawy,&nbsp;Fernando Domínguez-Castro,&nbsp;Magí Franquesa,&nbsp;Luis Gimeno-Sotelo,&nbsp;María Adell-Michavilla,&nbsp;Amar Halifa-Marín,&nbsp;Iván Noguera,&nbsp;Miguel Andres-Martin,&nbsp;Cesar Azorin-Molina,&nbsp;Alex Crespillo,&nbsp;David Pérez-Pajuelo","doi":"10.1002/joc.8906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8906","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study we propose a novel approach to standardising drought indices that offers flexibility tailored to local conditions. This involves employing different probability distributions and the Akaike Information Criterion to identify the most appropriate distribution for each region and variable. Following this approach, our proposed methodology enhances the accuracy and comparability across different spatial and temporal scales, with improved representation of extreme drought events. Nonetheless, despite the increased computational requirements associated with this approach, the advantages are substantial. By enhancing accuracy, comparability and adaptability, it may improve drought monitoring and management practices. Moreover, the methodology provides a versatile framework for standardising a wide range of environmental variables beyond traditional drought indices, and software for calculations is provided (https://github.com/lcsc/FlexDroughtIndex). Overall, the findings of this study can advance drought assessments by providing an innovative and flexible methodology that addresses key limitations of current approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8906","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interdecadal Variation of Spring Rainfall in Taiwan and Modulations of Global Warming and Pacific Decadal Oscillation","authors":"Wei-Teh Li,&nbsp;Jau-Ming Chen,&nbsp;I-Huan Lee,&nbsp;Ruo-Shan Tseng","doi":"10.1002/joc.8904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8904","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Spring rainfall in Taiwan during February–April (FMA) shows a profound decreasing trend in the period 1980–2022. This decreasing trend is found to be jointly modulated by the trend components of global warming and interdecadal evolutions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from its positive to negative phase over the past four decades. In contrast, interdecadal oscillation components of the PDO weakly impact interdecadal decreases in Taiwan's spring rainfall. Both global warming and interdecadal PDO variability cause moderate warming in the tropical western North Pacific and strong warming over the northern North Pacific. The former causes height fields over the tropical western Pacific to shift northward to result in an anomalous cyclone in association with the weakening of the subtropical high to the south of Taiwan. This anomalous cyclone is also affected by a Matsuno-Gill-type response to sea surface temperature warming and an anomalous convergent centre over the tropical western Pacific around 150° E. In the northern North Pacific, strong SST warming displaces height fields northward to make an anomalous anticyclone via the weakening of the Aleutian Low. Taiwan is meridionally embedded by the above anomalous cyclone and anticyclone. This circulation pair induces anomalous easterly moisture flux to pass over Taiwan, which then turns southward into the South China Sea. Moisture transport from the tropical region toward Taiwan is suppressed, resulting in an evident decrease in spring rainfall.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems in Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System Version 2","authors":"Rajesh Kumar Singh Maurya,&nbsp;Maheswar Pradhan,&nbsp;Suryachandra A. Rao,&nbsp;Deepeshkumar Jain,&nbsp;Ankur Srivastava,&nbsp;Prasanth A. Pillai,&nbsp;V. G. Kiran,&nbsp;Renu S. Das","doi":"10.1002/joc.8891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8891","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Synoptic-scale systems, such as monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs), contribute significantly to seasonal mean monsoon rainfall. Therefore, realistic simulation of characteristics (i.e., intensity, frequency and propagation) of LPSs is crucial for reducing the dry rainfall biases in general circulation models. Recent studies have argued that the generation and propagation of LPSs are strongly modulated by the narrow coastal sea surface temperature (SST) fronts over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Therefore, the present study addresses the improvement in LPS characteristics in a coupled model through better representation of coastal SST fronts over the BoB. LPSs over the Indian regions are tracked through the Tempest Extreme v2.1 tracking algorithm. Through a comparative analysis, the present study demonstrates that the recently developed coupled model, that is, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) version 2 (v2), simulates a higher number of LPSs generated with larger inland propagation as compared to the previous generation model (MMCFSv1). Correct location of positive vorticity anomaly, a larger extent of positive vorticity and circulation anomalies into the landmass and the stronger temporal evolution of sea level pressure or vorticity anomalies are a few of the favourable conditions that support the improved LPS characteristics in MMCFSv2.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation: Exposure Risks for Urban Populations and Cropland in North China","authors":"Changwen Yu,&nbsp;Wenqian Zhang,&nbsp;Nan Song,&nbsp;Guwei Zhang,&nbsp;Jiajun Yao,&nbsp;Zhiqi Xu,&nbsp;Junyi Xiu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8902","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>North China faces increasing risks from extreme precipitation under climate change, yet projections integrating socio-economic dynamics with high-resolution climate models remain limited. Leveraging the latest version of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections) from NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) datasets across SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, this study quantifies future extreme precipitation impacts on urban populations and cropland in two critical periods: 2031–2050 (mid-century) and 2081–2100 (end-century). Through the Multivariable Integrated Evaluation Tool (MVIETool), we demonstrate that NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 reduces regional precipitation biases by 79% compared to CMIP6 (from +133.16 mm/day to −27.00 mm/day), despite persistent uncertainties in extreme intensity indices. Projections reveal a pronounced intensification of extreme precipitation, with R99p (extremely wet day precipitation) increasing by 127%–131% and CDD (consecutive dry days) decreasing by 12%–17% in 2081–2100 under SSP5-8.5, signalling a transition toward wetter conditions. Exposure analyses indicate that 38.24 million citizens (26.32% of the urban population) and 49,900 km² cropland (5.87% of the area) in North China may face record-breaking precipitation events by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5, primarily concentrated in coastal megacities and the North China Plain. These findings underscore the urgency of scenario-specific adaptation strategies, including ‘sponge city’ retrofitting in high-exposure zones and precision agriculture tailored to precipitation regime shifts. Our integrated framework advances regional climate risk assessments by reconciling dynamical downscaling limitations with SSP-driven socio-economic uncertainties.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}