International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Delayed Response of Soil Moisture and Hydrological Droughts to Meteorological Drought Over East Asia","authors":"Msafiri Mtupili,&nbsp;Ren Wang,&nbsp;Lei Gu,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin","doi":"10.1002/joc.8883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8883","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The frequency and severity of meteorological drought across Eastern Asia (EA) are observed and projected to increase with ongoing global climate change. However, the temporal and spatial responses of land surface elements including soil moisture and runoff to meteorological drought remain insufficiently understood and characterised, especially in terms of quantifying the differentiated lag time of soil moisture and hydrological drought responses. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal response of soil moisture and hydrological droughts to meteorological drought across EA, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI; a measure of precipitation deficit), Standardised Soil Moisture Drought Index (SSMDI; quantifying soil moisture anomalies) and Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI; assessing streamflow deviations) at short- (1–3), medium- (6–9) and long-scales (12–24 months). The results show that in northern EA, soil moisture droughts indicate weak negative correlations with meteorological droughts at 1–6 month time scales, while in southern regions, stronger positive correlations are observed at 9–24 month time scales. Hydrological droughts exhibit consistently strong positive correlations with meteorological droughts across all time scales, especially in the southern regions of EA. Northern regions exhibit longer lag times of up to 8 months of soil moisture droughts in response to meteorological drought, whereas southern regions exhibit rapid responses (1 month). In all time scales, hydrological droughts in northern regions of EA have a delayed lag times extending up to 10 months. As climate change and land use changes may amplify drought impacts, long-term forecasting and adaptive management are essential to mitigate water shortages and ecological stress across the EA region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Investigation Into the Long-Chain Propagation Patterns and Driving Factors of Multiple Types of Droughts in Xinjiang","authors":"Shikang Zhao,&nbsp;Zhenxia Mu,&nbsp;Zilong Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Qiu,&nbsp;Jing Liu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8881","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The process of drought propagation is extremely complex and involves all aspects of the water cycle. Clarifying the mechanism of drought propagation is of great significance for understanding the evolutionary pattern of drought and constructing a drought early warning system. However, due to the complexity of droughts and the numerous factors influencing them, there are certain limitations and shortcomings in studying the intrinsic links, propagation characteristics and triggering mechanisms of multiple drought types. To this end, this paper takes the Xinjiang region as the research object, identifies the drought events based on the run theory and determines the drought propagation time by matching the drought events; risk probabilities, trigger thresholds and drivers between different drought types were explored using copula functions, Bayesian theory and random forest models. The results show that (1) the average drought propagation time from meteorology to agriculture and from meteorology to hydrology in Xinjiang is 2.1 and 2.8 months, respectively. (2) The probability of the occurrence of agricultural (hydrological) drought increased with the severity of meteorological (agricultural) droughts. Specifically, the average probability of extreme meteorological (agricultural) droughts triggering mild agricultural (hydrological) droughts reached 89% (41%), with an average trigger threshold of −1 (−2.2). (3) Mild meteorological drought on the northern slopes of the Tianshan mountains was the primary trigger for mild agricultural drought, with an average trigger probability and threshold of 45% and −0.89, respectively. In contrast, moderate meteorological drought on the southern slopes of the Tianshan mountains was the main trigger for mild agricultural drought, with an average trigger probability and threshold of 56% and −1.1, respectively. (4) Meteorological drought triggers a significant reduction in the threshold for agricultural drought, mainly influenced by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Agricultural drought triggers a significant reduction in the threshold for hydrological drought, with temperature and potential evapotranspiration being the main drivers of the threshold change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatology of Low-Level Jets Over Scandinavia and the Nordic Seas Using Model Datasets and Radiosondes","authors":"Clio Michel,&nbsp;Birgitte Rugaard Furevik,&nbsp;Anette Lauen Borg,&nbsp;Hilde Haakenstad,&nbsp;Øyvind Breivik","doi":"10.1002/joc.8871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8871","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Vertical wind speed profiles occasionally exhibit a maximum within the first 1–2 km above the surface, called a low-level jet (LLJ). This phenomenon can occur anywhere in the world. Here, we detect such jets in rawinsonde data as well as in two reanalyses (ERA5 and CERRA) and one hindcast (NORA3) over a large Scandinavian domain during the period 2000–2015 in order to find the datasets best reproducing the observed LLJs, although keeping in mind that some observed jets are assimilated in the two reanalyses. We find that both the reanalyses and hindcast exhibit the same climatology pattern in frequency, height, speed and annual cycle of LLJs, though their values differ. However, all three reanalysis/hindcast datasets present some differences compared to the rawinsondes, especially in terms of the jet height, which tends to be underestimated by the models. When considering all seven rawinsonde stations, CERRA seems to best simulate the LLJs frequencies and their features, probably because the observations are assimilated in the reanalysis. The analysis of three cases shows that their direction is driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, while their intensity is enhanced by the local topography. In most cases investigated, the atmosphere is in a stable state with a temperature inversion when LLJs occur. These conditions are known to be common during the formation of LLJs. In one location (Novaya Zemlya), the LLJ is associated with downslope winds and a Foehn effect. Finally, we show that, for a region over the North Sea where offshore wind farms may be built, there is large spatial variability in the LLJs height and speed. This could be taken into consideration in wind energy production estimates instead of prescribing a fixed profile of wind.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting Patterns in the Weather Regimes That Drive Regional Drought: Demonstration for South Africa","authors":"Garima Mandavya,&nbsp;Gaurav Atreya,&nbsp;John Kucharski,&nbsp;Andrew Watson,&nbsp;Nasser Najibi,&nbsp;Koen Verbist,&nbsp;Patrick Ray","doi":"10.1002/joc.8866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8866","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Traditional vulnerability assessments of climate change impacts often rely on randomised precipitation scenarios that lack a strong physical science basis. Furthermore, the limitations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) in accurately representing local precipitation fields undermine their utility for projecting future hydroclimatic extremes. To address these gaps in climate risk management, this study explores the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, known as weather regimes (WRs), in explaining local and regional precipitation dynamics in South Africa. Utilising a Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain approach, we identified six primary WRs for South Africa, each exhibiting distinct seasonal patterns. The results show that winter precipitation near Cape Town is dominated by three WRs linked to higher rainfall, whilst summer precipitation is influenced by two WRs associated with drier conditions. The WR-precipitation relationship in South Africa appears to be influenced by topographic features (e.g., The Great Escarpment and Cape Fold Mountains) and ocean currents (Agulhas and Benguela), leading to distinct spatial precipitation responses to regional WR configurations. Importantly, significant shifts in seasonal WR frequencies have been observed over the past two decades, particularly a marked change since 2010. Notably, a WR historically associated with rainfall in Cape Town has been replaced by a drier WR, contributing to worsening drought conditions, including the 2015–2017 “Day Zero” drought. During this period, the WR associated with dryness in Cape Town occurred more frequently than the historical average, whilst wetter years before and after the drought were characterised by low-pressure (low 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies) WRs conducive to precipitation. In contrast, the drought years were dominated by high-pressure (high 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly) WRs associated with dry conditions. This WR-precipitation analysis underscores the critical link between atmospheric circulation patterns and regional hydroclimatic extremes. These findings can inform the development of WR-based rainfall generators, providing valuable tools for vulnerability assessments and climate change adaptation planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8866","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ERA5 Reproduces Key Features of Global Precipitation Trends in A Warming Climate","authors":"Omon A. Obarein,&nbsp;Cameron C. Lee","doi":"10.1002/joc.8877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8877","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The largest impact of future climate changes on societies and ecosystems will likely come from precipitation variability and change. Using the ERA5 dataset, this global study examines precipitation trends using many precipitation parameters across five main components: precipitation amount, precipitation frequency, precipitation type, wet and dry spells, and precipitation extremes. Global trends are summarised by land and ocean areas, by climate region, and then zonally averaged to identify broader precipitation patterns and interactions that may not be apparent in local and regional scale studies, especially with a reanalysis dataset. We find that the ERA5 dataset was able to reproduce key features of precipitation change: the near-ubiquitous increase in extreme precipitation, the increase in Arctic precipitation, the transition from snowfall to a rainfall regime in mid-to high latitudes, and the contrasting sign of change in precipitation amount and frequency between land and ocean. Two noteworthy findings from the ERA5 dataset are that (1) spatial intensification of extreme precipitation around the warmest locations (equatorial region) is not matched by temporal intensification around the warmest time of year (summer months) in the northern hemisphere, and (2) the Himalayas show altitudinal stratification of precipitation phase changes. Finally, consistent with other studies, we find that synoptic weather types may influence the scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature and should be explored in future research. Additionally, ERA5 results are compared to those from GPCC, GPCP, and MERRA-2 precipitation datasets to evaluate the robustness of the results. Daily, annual, and seasonal means, including inter-annual variability of ERA5 precipitation estimates align strongly with those of the three validation datasets; however, trends show mixed results, with minimal to moderate agreement. In general, trends in GPCC precipitation are most similar to those of ERA5.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8877","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought's Grip on Romania: A Tale of Two Indices","authors":"M. Ionita,&nbsp;B. Antonescu,&nbsp;C. Roibu,&nbsp;V. Nagavciuc","doi":"10.1002/joc.8876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8876","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we have created a 172-year drought catalogue for Romania (1852–2023) by combining long-term meteorological records, documentary sources and two drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), respectively. The SPEI analysis highlights increasing dryness, especially in southern and eastern areas, driven by higher potential evapotranspiration and rising air temperatures since the 1990s, whereas SPI shows little change in precipitation-based droughts. Five major drought-rich periods emerged—1866–1867, 1918–1920, 1947–1948, 2000–2001 and 2019–2022—with the first and last being the most severe. These events exhibit notable regional differences, largely shaped by the Carpathian Mountains, as stations in the south and east endure longer and more intense droughts. Documentary evidence further contextualises these episodes, revealing their social and economic impacts. The resultant long-term drought atlas for Romania extends beyond existing data products, enhancing drought risk assessments and informing future adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8876","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana","authors":"Salomon Obahoundje,&nbsp;Komlavi Akpoti,&nbsp;Sander J. Zwart,&nbsp;Seifu A. Tilahun,&nbsp;Olufunke Cofie","doi":"10.1002/joc.8872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8872","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa-producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa-growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water-stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water-stressed regions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of High-Resolution Downscaling Predictions for the July 2023 Extreme Rainstorm in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on CMA-CPSv3","authors":"Jiaxi Yang,&nbsp;Panmao Zhai,&nbsp;Tongwen Wu,&nbsp;Jinghui Yan,&nbsp;Guwei Zhang,&nbsp;Lin Pei,&nbsp;Yan Yan,&nbsp;Shiguang Miao,&nbsp;Zhenchao Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.8879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8879","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The integration of weather and climate prediction represents the current frontier in the development of numerical modeling in China. Dynamic downscaling serves as a pivotal approach, improving the performance and resolution of global climate models to the weather scale. Focusing on the ‘23.7’ extreme rainstorm (July 29, 00:00–August 2, 00:00 UTC) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this study assesses predictions from the China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System version 3 (CMA-CPSv3, 45 km resolution) and 9-km dynamic downscaling hindcasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-9 km). In contrast to the conventional climate anomaly approaches, direct outputs are used for evaluation, similar to weather forecasting tests. By examining, both the CMA-CPSv3 predictions and the WRF-9 km hindcasts provide a 5-day prediction window for this rainstorm. They successfully predict the rainstorms and related atmospheric circulations from July 24th onward, aligning with observed and reanalyzed data. WRF-9 km, with the higher resolution and optimised physical processes, outperforms CMA-CPSv3, especially in precipitation spatial distribution and center intensity. The WRF-9 km 7/24 hindcast demonstrates the most significant enhancement compared to the corresponding CMA-CPSv3 prediction. This improvement is notably reflected in the substantial increase in spatial correlation, from 0.68 to 0.79, as well as a reduction in the difference of center values, decreasing from −51% to −20%. Furthermore, the WRF-9 km 7/24 hindcast improves the Critical Success Index by 0.08, the Success Rate by 0.08, and the Probability of Detection by 0.29 for heavy rainfall (over 25.0 mm/d). However, improvements in large-scale circulations with WRF-9 km are limited, which may restrict advancements in predictability. In conclusion, the WRF-9 km enhances the performance and resolution of CMA-CPSv3 predictions, which can be regarded as a viable pathway for CMA-CPSv3 to achieve weather-climate integration.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distinct Impacts of the Two Types of Summer ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western North Pacific","authors":"Shaopeng Zhang,&nbsp;Ping Huang,&nbsp;Yong Liu,&nbsp;Xianke Yang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8874","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study explores the relationship between summer-developed ENSOs and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) in distinguishing two types of summer ENSOs with distinct developing evolutions: so-called ‘continuing ENSOs’ and ‘emerging ENSOs’. The summer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during continuing ENSOs persist from the preceding winter, whereas emerging ENSOs feature a rapid decline in SSTAs from the preceding winter and newly develop from the following spring. The impact of summer ENSOs on WNP TC genesis is characterised by a shift in genesis location, as revealed in previous studies. The shift in genesis location is characterised by a zonal pattern with increased (decreased) TCs east (west) of 140° E in May to June (MJ) and a northwest–southeast dipole pattern with increased (decreased) TC genesis in the southeast (northwest) part of the WNP in July to September (JAS). The present study reveals that this impact of summer ENSOs is mainly contributed by emerging ENSOs, whereas the continuing type weakens ENSO's impact. During emerging ENSOs, more intense cyclonic anomalies over the central Pacific significantly intensify the monsoon trough east of 140° E, strengthening the impact of summer ENSOs on the location of TC genesis. The reduced vertical wind shear and enhanced absolute vorticity brought by the monsoon trough are important for the shift in TC genesis. The present study indicates that the classification of these two types of summer ENSOs with different temporal evolutions is a crucial factor in studying the impact of summer ENSOs on WNP TC activity.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anthropogenic Influence on the Compound Hot and Dry Event in Summer 2022 in the Tibetan Plateau Based on Statistical Downscaling CMIP6 Models","authors":"Kening Xue,&nbsp;Wei Li,&nbsp;Siyan Dong,&nbsp;Rong Yu,&nbsp;Leibin Wang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8873","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the summer of 2022, the Tibetan Plateau experienced a record-breaking compound hot and dry event (CHDE). This study quantifies the contribution of anthropogenic influence to this compound event using a set of high-resolution statistical downscaling results from six CMIP6 models. The Copula function was used to calculate the joint probability of the compound event. The results show that in the summer of 2022, hot conditions in the Tibetan Plateau broke records since 1961, with a return period of 408 years. The dry conditions were also uncommon, with a return period of 47 years. The hot and dry compound event is particularly rare, with a return period of more than 20,000 years. Based on the results from statistical downscaling models, it was found that anthropogenic influence has increased the risks of dry and hot conditions similar to those in the Tibetan Plateau in 2022 by factors of 3.3 [1.5, 5.2] and 14 [8.6, 21.2], respectively. Additionally, the risk of compound events has been increased by a factor of 46.7 [26.7, 77.6]. In the future, with the intensification of warm-wet situations on the Tibetan Plateau, the hot conditions similar to 2022 are expected to increase remarkably, with the risk of occurrence rising by factors of 56 [34, 108] and 75 [44, 162] during the periods 2021–2040 and 2051–2070, respectively. Conversely, dry conditions are projected to decrease, with reductions of 0.21 [0.075, 0.46] and 0.51 [0.3, 1.2] times in the two future periods. However, the risk of compound events is expected to increase, with increases of 3.3 [1.5, 5.2] times and 11 [6, 25] times during the two periods. This study is the first to use downscaled simulation to conduct event attribution analysis for the Tibetan Plateau, which can deepen the understanding of the influence of human activities on compound events.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}