International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Resolving the Dry Period Projection Paradox: Treat ‘Consecutiveness’ as a Nonlinearity","authors":"Enda O'Brien,&nbsp;Seanie Griffin,&nbsp;Catriona Duffy,&nbsp;Paul Nolan","doi":"10.1002/joc.8745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8745","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides a worked example of how the property of consecutiveness, or continuity, can be lost when computing climate indices such as consecutive dry days (CDD) or dry periods from model simulations of the future. That essential continuity property can easily be lost if such indices are computed from future projections of bias-corrected daily precipitation time series. A bias-correction algorithm such as quantile-mapping typically adjusts daily time series to remove overall precipitation bias, but takes no account of consecutiveness, and so can introduce occasional wet-day interruptions into otherwise dry periods. This can lead to inconsistencies between the raw and bias-corrected projections of such indices. To obtain consistent projections, CDD and related indices should be treated as independent parameters and bias-corrected directly in their own right. Such indices should be counted first, and bias-corrected later. In this sense, consecutiveness should be treated as a nonlinearity to be computed before performing any other mathematical operation such as bias correction. This paradox and its resolution are demonstrated using future climate projections from the TRANSLATE project, all of which are derived from global CMIP5 simulations as downscaled over Ireland by two separate regional model ensembles.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8745","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating CMIP6 Global Climate Models Performances Over Nigeria: An Integrated Approach","authors":"Mohammed Sanusi Shiru,&nbsp;Dongkyun Kim,&nbsp;Eun-Sung Chung","doi":"10.1002/joc.8739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8739","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The choice of global climate models (GCMs) for climate or hydrological studies remains a challenge due to their temporal and spatial variations and different performances in different parts of the globe. This study assesses the performances of 33 GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature over Nigeria in order to select the best performing GCMs for aggregation into a multi model ensemble (MME). The study uses three statistical metrics (SM) and Random Forest (RF) machine learning method for the evaluation of the GCMs. In addition, the GCM performances were also estimated using spatial assessment, boxplots, scatter plots and mean monthly comparison at each grid point over the period 1985–2014. Finally, the average was used to generate variations of MMEs by increasing the number of models in the MME considering the inclusion of the better ranking ones first in order to determine the optimum MME for the variables. The highest ranking GCMs based on the average of the scores of the SM and RF were NESM3, CMCC-ES, IPSL-L-R-INCA and IPSL-L-R, MPI-HAM and SAMO-UNICON for precipitation; BCC-C-MR, MRI-ESM, BCC-ESM1, ACC-ESM1-5 and GISS-E2-CC for maximum temperature; and GFDL-ESM, AWI-C-MR, IPSL-L-R, CAS-ESM2 and AWI-C-LR for minimum temperature. The highest-ranking model for all variables is ACC-ESM1-5, which ranked highest with a score of 0.6920 followed by BCC-C-MR with 0.6898, CAS-ESM2 with 0.6597 and BCC-ESM1 with 0.6545 score. The results of the spatial assessment, boxplots, scatter plots and the mean monthly comparison aligns with this. In the aggregation of MME for the three variables, the optimum number of models was obtained after averaging of the first four best ranking GCMs. This study presents a localised study, which is expected to reduce uncertainty in the projection of climate over Nigeria.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of Droughts and Floods During the Indian Summer Monsoon Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Historical and Future Simulations","authors":"Catherine George,&nbsp;Hamza Varikoden,&nbsp;Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath,&nbsp;Roja Chaluvadi,&nbsp;Chethalan Anthony Babu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8729","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is the prominent global monsoon system, which occur annually from June to September and impacts the lives of over a quarter of the world's population. Studies show that global warming is one of the key reasons for the extreme events such as droughts and floods, and that also alter regional dynamics of ISM. Consequently, a comprehensive investigation of flood and drought events in India is imperative, because of their important role in the economy of the country. Here, we employ simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to evaluate the intensity and frequency of droughts and floods across historical (1950–2014) and future (2015–2100) periods. We explore the best-performing model for the ISM rainfall (ISMR) to unravel the characteristics of floods and droughts by analysing rainfall data from 53 models. Although majority of the models successfully replicate the annual cycle of ISMR, there exists a significant difference in rainfall amounts. Following an initial screening to identify the most efficient models, eight are selected for an in-depth assessment. The chosen models slightly overestimate drought conditions, although they demonstrate a commendable concurrence in simulating the flood occurrences in India. Regarding the future projections, we analyse the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for near (2015–2035)-, mid (2047–2067)- and far (2079–2099)-future periods, in addition to the total projection period (2015–2100). Our analysis reveals an increasing trend of droughts in the near-future, compared to an increase in floods during the far-future. It is also highlighted that the intensity of droughts is projected to amplify in the far-future, while the intensity of floods is likely to diminish. Therefore, this study serves as a valuable resource for decision-making processes, particularly in the flood, drought and agricultural disaster preparedness.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 1: Systematic Effect of Canonical Sea Surface Temperature Patterns","authors":"Aubains Hounsou-Gbo,&nbsp;Nicholas M. J. Hall,&nbsp;Leticia Cardoso,&nbsp;Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior,&nbsp;Eduardo Martins","doi":"10.1002/joc.8746","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8746","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The response of February to April (FMA) Northeast Brazil precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns is analysed by making ensemble seasonal forecasts with a simple GCM. The physical and dynamical link between the SSTAs and regional precipitation is examined for a set of tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTAs, both separately and in combination. Five canonical SSTA patterns are considered: El Niño (strong eastern Pacific and moderate central Pacific); La Niña and the tropical North and South Atlantic. The model's anomaly responses to persisted SSTAs correspond quite well to observed precipitation regressions against SSTA timeseries: dry for El Niño and warm North Atlantic, wet for La Niña and warm South Atlantic. Experiments with reversed SSTAs show that model nonlinearity has a drying effect over northeastern South America. Combined tropical Atlantic SSTA patterns result in wet conditions over northern Northeast Brazil for a warm Atlantic or a negative dipole, and dry conditions for the contrary, so the South Atlantic has a greater impact than the North Atlantic. Combining SSTA patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic gives results that are similar to the sum of individual effects, with the stronger Pacific SSTAs exerting more influence despite the model's sensitivity to Atlantic conditions. Dry dynamical experiments with fixed basic states and heating perturbations confirm that interactive moist thermodynamics is crucial for accurately representing continental rainfall responses, even over short timescales. These results are generally promising for applications in operational seasonal forecasting, and this is reported in the companion paper, part 2.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Influence of the Eastern-Type and Western-Type Southern Branch Troughs on Precipitation in Winter and Its Structural Characteristics","authors":"Zhuoga Bianba,&nbsp;Cheng Yang,&nbsp;Shunwu Zhou,&nbsp;Zhitong Qian,&nbsp;Shengsheng Liu,&nbsp;Ke Li,&nbsp;Xiuping Yao","doi":"10.1002/joc.8720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8720","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using 30 years of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from winter (January), along with daily precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), this study employed an objective recognition method to classify southern branch troughs (SBTs) into eastern and western types. Subsequently, an analysis was conducted to identify the structural characteristics of each type and evaluate their effects on precipitation. The findings reveal that the eastern and western SBTs are located at different coordinates at 500 hPa, each affecting distinct precipitation zones. Specifically, the eastern SBT influences regions east of 90° E, particularly Yunnan, while the western SBT primarily impacts areas west of 90° E, with a pronounced effect on southern Tibet. Dynamic analysis indicates that both types of SBTs manifest as baroclinic troughs, though the western type exhibits stronger dynamic conditions than the eastern type. Both SBTs types are characterised by warm, moist advection ahead of the trough and cold, dry advection behind it. The eastern SBT shows more favourable thermal conditions than the western SBTs. Water vapour associated with both types of SBTs is concentrated at the front of the troughs below 450 hPa, with convergence observed below 700 hPa. Additionally, the eastern SBTs generate more pronounced water vapour convergence compared to the western SBT. Notably, torrential precipitation related to the eastern SBTs is driven by water vapour from the outer circulation of the western Pacific subtropical high, with additional moisture from the Bay of Bengal. In contrast, the water vapour associated with the western SBT primarily originates from the Arabian Sea and is supplemented by moisture from the Bay of Bengal.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Different Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated With Heatwaves Over Northeastern Siberia in July and August","authors":"Xiling Zhou,&nbsp;Tomonori Sato,&nbsp;Shixue Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.8731","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8731","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Globally, heatwaves have become more frequent over recent decades. Summer Siberian heatwaves have received less attention, even though ecosystems are vulnerable to high temperatures. This study investigates and compares the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with northeastern Siberian heatwaves in July and August. The results suggest a strong teleconnection between eastern Europe and northeastern Siberia, similar to the British–Okhotsk Corridor pattern, along a strengthened polar jet when frequent heatwaves occur in July. However, this teleconnection is less clear in northeastern Siberia in August due to weak Rossby wave activity linked to the waveguide effect. Instead, the formation of northeastern Siberian heatwaves in August is related to abnormally low pressure over the Arctic, as supported by a linear baroclinic model experiment. Additionally, the abnormally high pressure over northeastern Siberia may influence weather in the northwestern Pacific. These findings enhance the current understanding of summer Siberian heatwaves, suggesting their connection to Arctic atmospheric circulation and their importance for subseasonal weather predictions in the northwestern Pacific.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8731","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Comparative Study of Near-Surface Wind Speed Observations and Reanalysis Datasets in China Over the Past 38 Years","authors":"Xiyuan Mi,&nbsp;Peng Liu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8738","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Near-surface wind speed (NSWS) reanalysis products have been widely used in NSWS research, yet there is a lack of evaluation for NSWS reanalysis products. Based on the 10 m wind speed observations data from stations during 1980–2017, this article evaluated the climatic characteristics of NSWS over mainland China at various spatiotemporal scales using four reanalysis datasets: ERA5, MERRA-2, NCEP-2 and JRA-3Q. Compared with station observations, ERA5 and NCEP-2 showed positive biases in the climatology of NSWS, MERRA-2 showed negative biases and JRA-3Q showed significantly negative biases. Regarding the spatial distribution of the climatology, ERA5 performed the best with a spatial correlation coefficient of 0.55 with stations. At the interannual scale, ERA5 showed the best performance with a correlation coefficient of 0.68 with stations, significantly better than the other three reanalysis datasets. At the interdecadal scale, MERRA-2, NCEP-2 and JRA-3Q can generally reproduce the decreasing trend in NSWS from 1980 to 2011. However, none of the four reanalysis datasets can capture the increasing trend from 2011 to 2017. In terms of the annual cycle, only ERA5 can well reproduce the seasonal characteristics in different regions, including the maximum NSWS in the north and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in spring and the south of the Yangtze River in summer. Considering the evaluation results at different spatiotemporal scales, ERA5 exhibited good performance regarding the spatial distribution of climatology, interannual variability and annual cycle, but failed to reproduce observational features at the interdecadal scale. JRA-3Q showed significant advantages in terms of interdecadal variability, whereas neither MERRA-2 nor NCEP-2 showed prominent advantages in various aspects.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143533364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Solar Geoengineering on Projected Climate of South Asia","authors":"Athar Hussain,&nbsp;Muhammad Ali Khan,&nbsp;Hassaan Sipra","doi":"10.1002/joc.8695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8695","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Solar geoengineering (SG) is an interim solution to combat global warming, which involves scattering back a tiny fraction of the incoming sunlight. Hence, SG and its potential impacts are important to study for the identification of changing weather patterns over regions of climate vulnerable South Asia. This study explores the projected spatio-temporal patterns of two meteorological parameters, temperature and precipitation, under SG numerical experiment (stratospheric aerosol injection), relative to projected climate change. Furthermore, future projections of same meteorological parameters without SG under a representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5) will also be studied for comparative analysis. Offsetting climate parameters are associated with multiple risk factors. Thus, both SG and non-SG scenarios will be studied for the future time period. The results indicate that the temperature reduces by −0.62°C under the SG G4 scenario and spatial distribution patterns of temperature also depicts an overall cooling effects during the G4 implementation (2020–2029) and continuation (2030–2069) phase. Moreover, on a regional scale, a cold bias (less severe) is projected as compared to projected climate under RCP 4.5. Our findings show that, precipitation is also projected to be decreased by −0.02 mm day⁻¹. Dry bias pattern is projected during implementation phase only. The G4 based SG continuation and termination (2070–2090) phases depict no drastic change in precipitation over South Asia.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8695","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Model Projection of Climate Extremes under 1.5°C–4°C Global Warming Levels across Iran","authors":"Mohammad Reza Najafi,&nbsp;Mohammad Abbasian,&nbsp;Wooyoung Na,&nbsp;Melika RahimiMovaghar,&nbsp;Soheil Bakhtiari,&nbsp;Md Robiul Islam,&nbsp;Mohammad Fereshtehpour,&nbsp;Farshad Jalili Pirani,&nbsp;Reza Rezvani","doi":"10.1002/joc.8740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8740","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of climate extremes in Iran and projects future changes using data from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). We assess the impacts of climate change under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, considering global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C above preindustrial levels. Gridded observations are derived from ground measurements, using the SYMAP algorithm at a 1/8° latitude–longitude resolution. Subsequently, statistical downscaling of GCMs is performed using the Multivariate Bias Correction (MBC) and Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile Mapping Reordering (BCCAQ) approaches. Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated using the CLIMDEX indices. The findings indicate consistent rises in annual temperatures across Iran, with temperature indices such as warm spell duration and the monthly minimum value of daily temperature exhibiting substantial increases, about twofold by the +4.0°C period. Additionally, the study highlights a potential intensification in precipitation extremes (Rx1day, Rx5day, R90p, R95p), suggesting a heightened risk of more frequent and severe floods, particularly in the western, northern, and northwestern regions. These insights underline the critical need for region-specific adaptation strategies to address the risks associated with climate change in Iran.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8740","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of Marine Heat Extreme Evolution in the Northern Indian Ocean","authors":"Hitesh Gupta,&nbsp;Rahul Deogharia,&nbsp;Sourav Sil,&nbsp;Dipanjan Dey","doi":"10.1002/joc.8734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8734","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Marine Heat Extremes (MHEs) are events of anomalously high Sea Surface Temperature (SST) during which SST values exceed a certain pre-defined threshold. These MHEs have profound influence over weather patterns, air-sea interaction and the health of marine ecosystems. This study investigates the long-term evolution of MHEs in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) from 1900 to 2020. We utilised two normalised indices, the Normalised Extreme Frequency Index (NEFI) for frequency and the Normalised Extreme Heat Index (NEHI) for the intensity of MHEs, to objectively compare the MHE attributes across different periods and regions of the NIO. The analysis reveals non-linearly increasing NEFI, with the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) experiencing the fastest rise, followed by the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). MHE intensity shows exponential growth, with its mean-based regimes becoming shorter and shifting more frequently. A new regime has been emerging since the last decade. Analysis of the spatial extent of the MHEs indicates that the WEIO is the fastest-growing region of the NIO. Similar observations were found upon removing sub-decadal variabilities, which include the potential effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, highlighting the long-term warming associated with global warming. The study also links the increasing mean SST to the rising frequency and intensity of MHEs, which is predominantly driven by the net surface heat-flux, which is a combined effect of local and pantropical air-sea interaction. The surface warming is outpacing subsurface warming, thereby strengthening thermal stratification over time, potentially impacting vertical mixing and upwelling, which can, in turn, lead to further surface warming.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}