International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Trends in Extreme Rainfall and Anomalies in the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, São Paulo State, Brazil","authors":"Matheus G. Tavares,&nbsp;José A. Marengo","doi":"10.1002/joc.70464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70464","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista (MRBS) holds significant economic importance for both the state of São Paulo and Brazil as a whole. This study provides detailed information on total and extreme rainfall events, as well as the ongoing changes affecting the region. To this end, trends and magnitudes of extreme precipitation events were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. To assess the intensity and frequency of these extremes, climate indices were employed. Anomalies during the dry and wet seasons were also examined to understand current rainfall behaviour relative to historical patterns, using established variables. The aim was to interpret the meteorological dynamics over the region. Results indicate that the central and northern sectors of the MRBS are the most vulnerable to extreme rainfall events. The number of consecutive wet days and consecutive dry days showed a statistically significant positive trend. The 5-day accumulated precipitation values exhibited positive trends, particularly in the central portion of the MRBS during the wet season. These extreme rainfall events are potential triggers for landslides and floods in the region, and their increasing intensity could lead to hydro-geo-meteorological disasters in exposed and vulnerable areas. These trends are consistent with the observed increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic and with enhanced activity of low-pressure systems in the region, especially during the wet season.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatology and Trends of Sub-Daily Precipitation Extremes in Croatia","authors":"Ana Starčević,&nbsp;Ksenija Cindrić Kalin,&nbsp;Zoran Pasarić","doi":"10.1002/joc.70463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70463","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing frequency of flash floods in recent decades has been linked to climate change, particularly to the rising intensity and frequency of short-duration rainfall events. This study analyses the climatology and trends of sub-daily precipitation extremes in Croatia, a complex area situated in a transitional zone between the European mainland, the Alpine region and the Mediterranean. The analysis, performed on annual and seasonal scales, is based on 1-, 3-, and 6-hourly data from a dense network of ombrographic stations covering the 1981–2020 period. Trends were assessed using a linear regression model within a Bayesian framework and the associated probability of direction. The results show that the highest number of wet hours occurs in spring and autumn across inland Croatia, while in the mountainous and Adriatic regions, wet hours peak in late autumn and winter. The cold seasons generally exhibit the longest wet spell durations. The most intense and frequent sub-daily precipitation extremes were recorded in the northern and southern Adriatic regions and in the highlands, with maxima in early autumn, typical of the Mediterranean climate. In the continental part, however, significant contributions of sub-daily extremes to daily rainfall were found during summer months. The timing of peak intensity and frequency coincides within each region, suggesting that both are driven by similar convective and thunderstorm processes. Hourly rainfall maxima typically occur around midnight, shifting to the afternoon in inland areas during the warm season, while along the Adriatic coast and islands they prevail at night or in the early morning. A general tendency toward more frequent and intense rainfall was detected, with increasing intermittency over the mainland and prolonged wet spells along the Adriatic. These findings provide a valuable basis for assessing flash flood risk and for improving climate modelling and adaptation strategies in the context of a changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70463","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution and Impact of Extreme and Weak Madden–Julian Oscillation Events on Precipitation Over South America","authors":"Mónica Minjares,&nbsp;Álvaro Corral,&nbsp;Marcelo Barreiro","doi":"10.1002/joc.70465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70465","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We examine the evolution of extreme Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events, how the different ENSO phases modulate extreme MJO events, and how their combination impacts South American climate. Extreme MJO events are defined as those exceeding a specific threshold based on the events distribution, distinguishing them from weak events. We show that extreme MJO events most frequently initiate in phases 2–3 throughout the year, with similar distributions across phases 8–1, 6–7 and 4–5. In contrast, weak events predominantly start in phases 4–5 year-round, followed by phases 2–3, with phases 8–1 and 6–7 occurring at similar frequencies. Additionally, during La Niña, extreme events tend to last longer than during El Niño, a pattern not observed in weak events. A composite analysis of outgoing longwave radiation, rainfall, vertically integrated water vapour flux, eddy streamfunction and velocity potential was conducted to determine how the associated anomalies evolve. The findings show that enhanced (suppressed) convection centres in the equatorial region during extreme events are more intense compared to those during weak events. Moreover, hemispheric and regional circulation anomalies are stronger during extreme MJO events influencing the South American rainfall Dipole (SAD), a key feature of regional climate variability, resulting in more intense rainfall anomalies and of larger spatial extent compared to weak events. This is because extreme events are characterised by tropical–tropical and tropical–extratropical teleconnections, whereas weak events primarily feature tropical–tropical teleconnections. Moreover, El Niño increases the persistence of the SAD during extreme events starting in phases 2–3. We also found that rainfall anomalies develop over some regions of South America irrespective of the initiation phase, while in other regions this is not the case, suggesting larger sub-seasonal predictability in the former. Finally, a large increase in extreme MJO events during the last decade was found, mainly due to their occurrence during El Niño years.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observed Linkages Between Marine Heatwaves and Extreme Weather Over Land: A New Zealand Case Study","authors":"Matthew Chinappa,&nbsp;Hamish Lewis,&nbsp;Luke J. Harrington,&nbsp;Peter B. Gibson","doi":"10.1002/joc.70457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70457","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasingly prevalent oceanic extremes with the potential to influence adjacent weather and climate over land. This study characterizes the spatio-temporal variability of MHWs surrounding New Zealand from 1982 to 2020 and examines their relationship with concurrent terrestrial temperature and rainfall anomalies, alongside the broader synoptic-scale circulation. This observational analysis reveals a marked spatial contrast: short-lived, high-intensity MHWs dominate the Tasman Sea, whereas longer-duration events occur in the southeastern offshore region under conditions of persistent high-pressure systems and reduced wind. Composite and case study analyses of the five most significant events demonstrate that MHW impacts over land are strongly conditioned by atmospheric circulation. All events produced substantial national warming over land (+2°C), confirming a robust thermodynamic coupling between the ocean and land surface. In contrast, rainfall responses are highly variable and depend strongly on synoptic-scale circulation. Extreme precipitation occurs when atmospheric rivers (AR) or ex-tropical cyclones interact with anomalously warm ocean conditions, whereas persistent anticyclonic regimes favour widespread dryness despite the presence of a MHW. These results indicate that MHWs primarily act as thermodynamic modifiers of the lower atmosphere, increasing heat and moisture availability, while atmospheric circulation governs the timing, location, and magnitude of rainfall extremes. The findings highlight the importance of considering both oceanic and atmospheric drivers when assessing compound climate extremes in New Zealand.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70457","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sequential Moisture Dynamics Driving Multi-Day Flood-Producing Rainfall Across India","authors":"Deepak Pandidurai,&nbsp;Akash Singh Raghuvanshi,&nbsp;Ankit Agarwal,&nbsp;Ricardo Machado Trigo","doi":"10.1002/joc.70462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70462","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Extreme floods during the Indian Summer Monsoon often follow multi-day heavy rainfall, yet the physical sequencing from large-scale moisture supply to local flood-triggering precipitation remains insufficiently resolved for prediction. We analyse severe flood events spanning coastal and inland regimes by integrating rainfall observations, reanalysis data, radiosonde profiles, moisture back-trajectories and vertically integrated moisture budget. Across events, a consistent precursor cascade emerges where low-level vertically integrated water-vapour transport (IVT) strengthens 1–3 days before peak rainfall, column moisture convergence (VIMFC) peaks in close correspondence with the heaviest precipitation, and low-level transport contributes roughly 41%–51% of total IVT, confirming dominant lower-tropospheric control. The moisture budget shows vertical advection as the dominant contributor to precipitation. Distinct regimes are identified from moisture back trajectory: (i) coastal floods governed by oceanic low-level jets and orographic ascent; (ii) inland floods governed by continental moisture recycling and coupling between monsoon lows and synoptic scale disturbances. These results identify a physically consistent precursor cascade linking synoptic moisture pathways to flood-producing convection across contrasting flood regimes in India. The framework provides a compact diagnostic basis for improving short-range flood forecasting and offers process-level insight relevant to future flood-risk assessment under intensifying monsoon extremes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distinguishing Catastrophic From Non-Catastrophic Extreme Precipitation Events Through Moisture Transport Perspectives: A Case Study in Henan Province","authors":"Jie Zhao,&nbsp;Weidong Li,&nbsp;Tiejian Li,&nbsp;Mingxi Zhang,&nbsp;Zhaoxi Li,&nbsp;Minglei Hou,&nbsp;Yang Su,&nbsp;Yongchi Hou","doi":"10.1002/joc.70458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70458","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Under global warming, extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are becoming more frequent and drawing increasing attention. However, most research defines EPEs based on statistical thresholds (e.g., 95th percentile), which may not capture their catastrophic potential. Through analysis of four cases in China's Henan Province, including the 2021 Zhengzhou and 1975 events, this study investigates the mechanisms that transform extreme precipitation into catastrophic events. Using Lagrangian moisture tracking and watershed segmentation algorithms, we found that all EPEs in Henan share a dominant southeastern moisture transport pathway from the Western Pacific Ocean, differing from the climatological southwestern monsoon pattern. Their circulation is characterised by an anomalously northward-shifted Western Pacific subtropical high and concurrent tropical cyclone activities. What distinguishes catastrophic precipitation events (CPEs) is their ‘moisture transport structure stability’—characterised by synchronised interaction between tropical cyclones and the subtropical high, creating atmospheric blocking patterns and stable moisture channels. Three precursor signals for CPEs were identified: large-scale circulation patterns featuring synchronised tropical cyclone-subtropical high interactions, sustained low-level jets concentrating moisture transport below 900 hPa, and persistent atmospheric circulation maintaining organised moisture channels. These findings reveal key mechanisms transforming extreme precipitation into catastrophic events and provide insights for improving extreme weather forecasting in monsoon regions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Performance of the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis Dataset in Reproducing Extreme Weather Events in Poland","authors":"Kinga Kulesza,&nbsp;Maciej Jefimow,&nbsp;Joanna Strużewska","doi":"10.1002/joc.70451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70451","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reliable representation of extreme weather events is essential for the climate impact studies and risk assessment. However, global reanalyses, for example ERA5 and ERA5-Land, often struggle to capture local-scale extremes due to the limited spatial resolution. This study evaluates the performance of the high-resolution Copernicus European Regional ReAnalysis (CERRA) and CERRA-Land in representing extreme temperature, precipitation, and wind conditions over Poland. CERRA, as well as ERA5 and ERA5-Land, are compared against the long-term in situ observations from the period 1991–2020. The assessment combines a climatological analysis of standardized extreme indices with detailed case studies of high-impact weather events, including an extreme windstorm associated with Cyclone Kyrill in January 2007, a regional heavy rainfall episode leading to a flooding in May 2010, and a severe heatwave in July 2010. Statistical metrics, spatial distributions of the mean biases, probability density functions, and Taylor diagrams were used to quantify biases and overall agreement with observations. Results show that all reanalyses tend to underestimate temperature and precipitation extremes, with the strongest temperature biases occurring at coastal and mountainous stations. However, CERRA consistently exhibits smaller mean biases and improved correlations for extreme temperature and precipitation indices compared to ERA5 and ERA5-Land. These improvements are particularly pronounced for localized and short-lived precipitation extremes, where CERRA substantially outperforms the global reanalyses. In contrast, wind extremes remain challenging for all datasets, with only marginal improvements provided by CERRA and persistent large errors at high-elevation sites. Overall, the findings demonstrate that CERRA provides a clear and consistent improvement over ERA5 and ERA5-Land for temperature and precipitation extremes in Poland. These advances are relevant especially for applications such as flood risk assessment or heatwave impact analysis, where an accurate representation of extreme conditions is essential.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70451","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why Temporal Scale Matters: Daily Extreme Precipitation Inconsistencies in Fengyun-2 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Over the Yangtze River Basin","authors":"Hao Wu,&nbsp;Ziyang Guo,&nbsp;Chenglin Liu,&nbsp;Xing Liu,&nbsp;Shuohan Wang,&nbsp;Zhehui Shen,&nbsp;Bin Yong","doi":"10.1002/joc.70469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70469","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>One of the primary missions of the Fengyun-2 (FY-2) geostationary satellites is to provide high-temporal- and spatial-resolution quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) over East Asia. However, although FY-2 products are generated using a unified retrieval framework, their performance may vary substantially across temporal scales, leading to pronounced inconsistencies when sub-daily estimates are aggregated to the daily scale. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of precipitation estimates from FY-2F, FY-2G, and FY-2H over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) during June 2018–March 2022, with a particular focus on scale-dependent inconsistencies in extreme precipitation monitoring. The assessment employs a suite of extreme precipitation intensity indices, frequency indices, and consistency metrics to systematically evaluate FY-2 QPE performance at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 24-h temporal scales, using ground observations as reference data. The results indicate that FY-2G consistently outperforms FY-2F and FY-2H across most evaluation metrics; however, clear temporal-scale dependencies are evident for all three products. In particular, daily precipitation derived from 1- and 3-h FY-2G QPEs exhibits the highest consistency with gauge observations, and within the same satellite product (e.g., FY-2G), daily extreme precipitation estimates aggregated from the 1- and 3-h retrievals consistently outperform those derived from longer temporal scales. In contrast, RX1day and RX5day derived from all FY-2 QPEs are substantially underestimated at the official 24-h timescale across the YRB, and extreme precipitation frequency indices, including consecutive wet days (CWD) and consecutive dry days (CDD), also show pronounced underestimation at the daily scale. At sub-daily timescales (1-, 3-, and 6-h), FY-2F and FY-2H tend to slightly underestimate precipitation over plateau regions, whereas FY-2G generally exhibits minor overestimation. These results demonstrate that lower temporal aggregation of instantaneous satellite precipitation estimates more closely aligns with the accumulation characteristics of ground-based rain gauge observations, thereby providing a more reliable representation of daily extreme precipitation. Overall, this study highlights temporal-scale effects as a key source of uncertainty in FY-2–based extreme precipitation monitoring. The findings emphasize that daily precipitation derived from finer temporal resolutions, particularly 1- and 3-h FY-2G QPEs, offers clear advantages over directly provided daily products. This work underscores the necessity of explicitly accounting for scale-dependent biases and optimizing temporal aggregation strategies to improve the reliability of FY-2 QPEs, especially for extreme precipitation events over complex terrain.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impacts of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones on Transient Weather in Réunion","authors":"Alexi M. Marinaki,&nbsp;Jennifer M. Fitchett","doi":"10.1002/joc.70456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70456","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Réunion is characterised by a rugged topography formed by two volcanoes. The small size of the island makes tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls relatively uncommon, despite the geographical location within an exceptionally active ocean basin. As much of the research on tropical cyclones focusses on landfall, Réunion has therefore been comparatively overlooked. Due to the size of the storms, the seasonal movement of tropical cyclones within a 500 km radius of Réunion is likely to have an impact on local weather. The extent of this influence of non-landfalling tropical cyclones on the transient weather of the island remains uncertain. To investigate this issue, a record was compiled of tropical cyclones that made passage within a 500 km radius of Réunion from 1991 to 2023 using the IBTrACS database. The conditions of each cyclone were then compared to meteorological data, provided by Météo France, for 11 stations across the island from 1991 to 2023. The results indicate that even the lowest intensity tropical cyclones making passage 500 km away from the island can result in significant deviations from long-term weather in Réunion. Storm intensity, direction, duration and seasonality all play an equally important role in the effect size of the deviations in meteorological conditions. The most marked changes, in terms of effect size, to long-term weather were induced by storms that made passage nearest the eastern coast of the island, those during February, and those which intensified most rapidly. These findings suggest that non-landfalling tropical cyclones are far more impactful than expected, highlighting the significance of precautionary tropical cyclone adaptations.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70456","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148862362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme Cyclones Entering the Arctic From the North Atlantic in Winter: Classification and Impacts","authors":"Junmei Lü,&nbsp;Zhirou Zhang,&nbsp;Minghu Ding,&nbsp;Junming Chen,&nbsp;Lan Xia,&nbsp;Wenqian Zhang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70429","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The North Atlantic constitutes the primary pathway for winter cyclones intruding into the Arctic, and these cyclones are typically much more intense than those formed locally. When extreme cyclones penetrate the Arctic, they transport water vapour and heat to the north, inducing pronounced anomalies in weather and sea ice. Based on objective trajectory analysis, three distinct types of extreme cyclones were identified according to their tracks from the North Atlantic to the Arctic: Type 1 and Type 2 cyclones intrude into the seas west and east of Greenland and the Arctic Ocean, respectively, while Type 3 cyclones migrate along the European continent margin. This research investigates the associated anomalies in Arctic atmospheric circulation and sea ice in response to these trajectories. The results reveal that the three types of extreme cyclones are linked to distinct circulation anomalies, characterised by polar vortex splitting, Arctic Oscillation, and polar vortex displacement. Furthermore, Type 1 and Type 2 cyclones favour warming from troposphere to lower stratosphere, whereas Type 3 cyclones are conducive to cooling in both troposphere and stratosphere. Preliminary analysis suggests that prior to and during the early stages of cyclone development, dynamic wind effects in the lower troposphere drive sea ice southward, reducing sea ice in the polar regions while increasing it in lower latitudes. Moreover, warm air advected northward by the cyclone promotes sea ice loss, whereas the intrusion of cold air in the cyclone's rear sector enhances sea ice formation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}