International Journal of Climatology最新文献

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Interplay Among Recent Trends in Climate Extremes, Vegetation Phenology, and Crop Production in the Southern Mediterranean Region
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8768
Behnam Mirgol, Bastien Dieppois, Jessica Northey, Lionel Jarlan, Saïd Khabba, Michel Le Page, Jonathan Eden, Job Ekolu, Ikram El Hazdour, Gil Mahe
{"title":"Interplay Among Recent Trends in Climate Extremes, Vegetation Phenology, and Crop Production in the Southern Mediterranean Region","authors":"Behnam Mirgol,&nbsp;Bastien Dieppois,&nbsp;Jessica Northey,&nbsp;Lionel Jarlan,&nbsp;Saïd Khabba,&nbsp;Michel Le Page,&nbsp;Jonathan Eden,&nbsp;Job Ekolu,&nbsp;Ikram El Hazdour,&nbsp;Gil Mahe","doi":"10.1002/joc.8768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8768","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The southern Mediterranean region is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change globally. However, in this region, there is a need to further understand the complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and crops to fully assess the combined impacts of extreme climate events on the agricultural sector. Using daily Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we evaluated trends across 15 vegetation phenology indicators between 1982 and 2019 and analysed their links to land-use land-cover changes. We found significant increases in the maximum value of NDVI (MaxV), length of growing seasons (LengthGS), and duration from crop emergence to anthesis (BMaxT), particularly within croplands. These changes positively correlated with regional crop production, especially in coastal and interior plains where croplands and forests are expanding. Conversely, southern areas bordering the Sahara showed declining MaxV and an expansion of sparsely vegetated areas. We then conducted a comprehensive seasonal trend analysis of climatic stresses and discussed how they align with recent trends in key phenological indicators. Coastal and interior plains experienced wetter conditions throughout the year, ensuring sufficient water during the growing season. Meanwhile, areas bordering the Sahara had wetter autumns and winters but drier springs and summers. Additionally, the region experienced warmer conditions from spring to autumn, with fewer cold wave events. Analysing the frequency and duration of compound extreme events, we observed a trend toward more light to moderate dry/hot days in spring and autumn and light to extreme wet/hot days from summer to autumn. These conditions are significantly correlated with increased MaxV, improved crop productivity, and extended LengthGS and BMaxT. These findings may serve as early indicators of how future climate changes could impact crop production, highlighting regional risks and opportunities to guide informed decision-making and development of adaptive strategies in the southern Mediterranean region.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8768","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143750015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deciphering the Relationship Between Moisture Flux and Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Over the West Coast of India
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8756
Tesna Maria, Ajil Kottayil, Prince Xavier, Viju O. John
{"title":"Deciphering the Relationship Between Moisture Flux and Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Over the West Coast of India","authors":"Tesna Maria,&nbsp;Ajil Kottayil,&nbsp;Prince Xavier,&nbsp;Viju O. John","doi":"10.1002/joc.8756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8756","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The west coast of India has recently been experiencing torrential monsoon rains, a trend that studies indicate is likely to continue under future warming scenarios. This study investigates the link between moisture flux and extreme rainfall over the west coast, using observational and reanalysis datasets for the monsoon seasons (June to September) from 1990 to 2023. The analysis shows that, over the Indian subcontinent, rainfall along the west coast is primarily influenced by large-scale moisture flux from the Arabian Sea. By decomposing the vertically integrated moisture flux into dynamic and thermodynamic components, this study observes that the thermodynamic component of moisture flux exhibits an increasing trend over the southwest coast, while this increasing trend is more prominent for the dynamic component over the northwest coast. Extreme rainfall over the southwest coast is increasing at a rate of 0.23 mm per season, attributed primarily to the increase in the thermodynamic component of moisture flux. It is observed that the rate of sea surface temperature (SST) increase over the Arabian Sea is faster than over the Bay of Bengal, with the average SST over the southeast Arabian Sea exceeding 28°C in recent years. Observations indicate that warming over the southeast Arabian Sea is strongly coupled with moisture accumulation observed over the southwest coast. This study provides strong evidence of a link between moisture transport, extreme rainfall and SST, identifying the southwest coast as a region vulnerable to climate change. Over the northwest coast, the incidence of extreme rainfall is associated with the strengthening of dynamic processes, and the mean monsoon rainfall in this region is increasing in alignment with the rising dynamic component of moisture flux.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Combined and Isolated Impacts of El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events on South American Precipitation During Austral Winter and Spring Depending on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Phases
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8765
Itamara P. Souza, Rita V. Andreoli, Mary T. Kayano, Jean A. C. Costa, Leonardo Mamani, Rodrigo A. F. Souza, Wilmar L. Cerón
{"title":"The Combined and Isolated Impacts of El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events on South American Precipitation During Austral Winter and Spring Depending on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Phases","authors":"Itamara P. Souza,&nbsp;Rita V. Andreoli,&nbsp;Mary T. Kayano,&nbsp;Jean A. C. Costa,&nbsp;Leonardo Mamani,&nbsp;Rodrigo A. F. Souza,&nbsp;Wilmar L. Cerón","doi":"10.1002/joc.8765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8765","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The isolated/combined impacts of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) and El Niño (EN) events on precipitation in South America (SA) were investigated during austral winter and spring for the 1901–2012 period, considering both Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases. Under the warm phase (WAMO), EN events are well characterised in winter and, in spring, are accompanied by anomalous warming of the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA); thus, variations in the Walker circulation and the northward shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reduce precipitation over northern SA. In the cold AMO phase (CAMO), EN events are weak in winter. At the same time, an intense cooling in the equatorial North Atlantic, favoured by the CAMO, enhances moisture transport from the Amazon to central and southeastern Brazil, increasing precipitation in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone region. As EN develops in spring, the anticyclone off the east coast of SA associated with the Pacific-South American (PSA) pattern decreases (increases) precipitation in central (southeastern) SA. The pIOD events predominantly occur during WAMO phase, when warming in the TNA is favoured by AMO. In winter, the moisture transport to northern SA is weakened, and the ITCZ remains northward shifted, inhibiting the precipitation over northeastern Brazil and southeastern Amazon. In spring, pIOD intensified ascending motions in equatorial Atlantic, increasing precipitation over northeastern Brazil. A wave train from the Indian Ocean strengthens the South Atlantic subtropical high, suppressing precipitation in central and eastern SA. EN-pIOD events are well established in both AMO phases, though the sea surface temperature anomalies in the TNA depend on the AMO. During WAMO, reduced precipitation in western Amazon and northeastern SA is influenced by the Walker circulation, while in CAMO, TNA cooling enhances moisture transport from the Amazon into southeastern SA, where the PSA pattern and wave train from the Indian Ocean increase precipitation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mapping the Research Landscape: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Review of Global Warming and Human Health
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8761
Qingyong Zheng, Jianguo Xu, Ming Liu, Kexin Ji, Yu Zhang, Songlin Wu, Tengfei Li, Kaisen Yuan, Zhichao Ma, Zijian Ma, Jinhui Tian, Jiang Li
{"title":"Mapping the Research Landscape: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Review of Global Warming and Human Health","authors":"Qingyong Zheng,&nbsp;Jianguo Xu,&nbsp;Ming Liu,&nbsp;Kexin Ji,&nbsp;Yu Zhang,&nbsp;Songlin Wu,&nbsp;Tengfei Li,&nbsp;Kaisen Yuan,&nbsp;Zhichao Ma,&nbsp;Zijian Ma,&nbsp;Jinhui Tian,&nbsp;Jiang Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.8761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8761","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Human health is increasingly threatened by global warming, necessitating a thorough understanding of research progress in this critical area to inform future studies. The data were analysed using Microsoft Excel 2021, and visualisations were created with GraphPad, VOSviewer and R-Studio (Bibliometrix). These tools were used to generate graphs and network visualisations illustrating author and country collaborations, journal article distributions, hotspot clustering and future trend predictions. Our analysis revealed a substantial increase in publications in recent years, with intensified research and collaboration observed across Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania, particularly in the United States. Various high-impact journals have made meaningful contributions to raising awareness in this field, emphasises the multifaceted impacts of global warming on public health and societal activities, while also exploring adaptive measures being implemented in response to these changes. As the world continues to grapple with the global pandemic, further research is likely to spotlight related issues, with heightened interest anticipated. The evidence of global warming's impact on human health is becoming increasingly evident, underscoring the need for global cooperation to mitigate its effects and promote public health. This study provides a foundation for researchers and policymakers, highlighting the significance of addressing global warming's implications for human well-being. By fostering international collaboration, we can collectively strive toward sustainable strategies to combat global warming and safeguard public health.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143750012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identification and Variability Analysis of New Homogeneous Summer Monsoon Rainfall Regions Over India by Using K-Means Clustering Technique
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8759
P. P. Sreekala, C. A. Babu
{"title":"Identification and Variability Analysis of New Homogeneous Summer Monsoon Rainfall Regions Over India by Using K-Means Clustering Technique","authors":"P. P. Sreekala,&nbsp;C. A. Babu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8759","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The identification of new homogeneous Indian summer monsoon rainfall regions is important for both research and operational forecasting purposes. The homogeneous rainfall regions used by the India Meteorological Department include areas that are actually dissimilar in terms of both the amount of rainfall and its variability. In the present study, we have identified three primary clusters of homogenous summer monsoon rainfall zones (low, medium and high rainfall) of India by using K-means clustering technique and Calinski–Harabasz (CH) index. The identified clusters are again subdivided based on the distance between the clusters into six homogenous rainfall zones such as Southeast India (SI), West India (WI), Central India (CI), West Coast of India (WC), Northeast India1&amp;2 (NE1 &amp; NE2). Summer monsoon rainfall exhibit a positive trend over the western and southern region of India (SI, WC, and WI) while the eastern part of India (CI, NE1 and NE2) exhibit a negative trend. The increased sea surface temperature of tropical north Atlantic during May is conducive for the enhanced summer monsoon rainfall activity over low rainfall zone (Southeast India and West India). Tropical North Atlantic SST during May is related with the subsequent warming of Indo Pacific Ocean and cooling of Central Pacific Ocean, which induces southeasterlies towards Indian region and strengthen the rainfall activity over SI and WI. The position and intensity of the upper-level circulations have profound impact on the interannual variability of rainfall over different homogenous regions. Above-normal rainfall over SI and WI (CI and WC) is enhanced by the upper-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation in Bay of Bengal (West Asia), which extends north westward (south eastward) to the Indian landmass. Indian Ocean warming during May is associated with above (below) normal rainfall over NE2 region (the eastern part of CI). Southern Ocean SST during May is significantly correlated with the rainfall over southwest coast of India, which is also indicated by the positive correlation between April southern Annular Mode and south west coast rainfall. Sea surface temperature during May in different ocean basins can be used as the potential predictors for improving the long-range forecast of seasonal rainfall over newly identified homogenous rainfall zones.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143750011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Rainfall Variability Over Major River Basins of India Using Multi Temporal Satellite Data Products
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8757
Saurabh Choubey, Prashant Kumar, Shard Chander, Rina Kumari
{"title":"Evaluation of Rainfall Variability Over Major River Basins of India Using Multi Temporal Satellite Data Products","authors":"Saurabh Choubey,&nbsp;Prashant Kumar,&nbsp;Shard Chander,&nbsp;Rina Kumari","doi":"10.1002/joc.8757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8757","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>High resolution remotely sensed rainfall data is indispensable to accurately monitor rainfall variability at a river basin scale under climate change. The aim of the study is to assess the change in rainfall climatology and determine the performance of three GPM rainfall products (IMERG Final_Run, GSMaP_Gauge and recently developed GSMaP_ISRO) against in situ observation over major Indian River basins for the monsoon season rainfall during 2000–2020. The analysis provides valuable insights into the issues in the rainfall products and their performance under varying rainfall intensity (low, moderate and heavy) and orography. Results indicate that mean monsoon rainfall is better represented in GSMaP_ISRO than IMERG Final_Run and GSMaP_Gauge estimates. GSMaP_ISRO outperformed IMERG Final_Run and GSMaP_Gauge with smaller root-mean-square error and higher correlation coefficient. It was observed that the performance of GPM rainfall is influenced by rainfall intensity and terrain height of basins. In particular, for high rainfall occurrence, the Brahmaputra and Barak basins in northeast India exhibited large uncertainties in IMERG Final_Run and GSMaP_Gauge products. The statistical evaluation of different rainfall scores (POD, FAR and CSI) suggested that the GSMaP_ISRO rainfall has significant skill over Indian river basins. A significant improvement is observed over Brahmaputra (RMSD = 34.46, CC = 0.92, FAR = 0.26), Barak and others (RMSD = 65.75, CC = 0.95, FAR = 0.29) and Cauvery basin (RMSD = 23.1, CC = 0.8, FAR = 0.15) for GSMaP_ISRO estimates. These findings provide valuable information on the accuracy of GPM rainfall necessary for hydro-meteorological applications.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistical Assessment and Augmentation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Monthly Precipitation Forecast (SEASonal Prediction of Precipitation)
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8723
Mohsen Nasseri, Gerrit Schoups, Mercedeh Taheri
{"title":"Statistical Assessment and Augmentation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Monthly Precipitation Forecast (SEASonal Prediction of Precipitation)","authors":"Mohsen Nasseri,&nbsp;Gerrit Schoups,&nbsp;Mercedeh Taheri","doi":"10.1002/joc.8723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8723","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Accurate prediction of precipitation is of paramount importance for effective planning of future water resources. In this study, we focused on the improvement and evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation ensemble-based seasonal precipitation prediction product, designated (SEASonal prediction of precipitation (SEAS5)). Three selected linear regression methods, namely ordinary least squares (OLS), flexible least squares (FLS) and the quantile-quantile (Q-Q) methods, were used to develop a correction procedure. The watershed of Lake Urmia was selected as a case study. The application of these augmentation methods has yielded encouraging results, demonstrating an improvement in the statistical metrics of SEAS5 precipitation forecasts for the first and second-coming months. However, all linear projection methods improve the performance of the SEAS5 products. The Q-Q method has shown the highest efficiency among the methods, playing a significant role in improving the accuracy of the hindcast precipitation. A variety of statistics (deterministic, forecast skill and uncertainty scores) were used to evaluate the effectiveness of both the raw and enhanced SEAS5 products. These analyses provide a comprehensive understanding of the performance of the SEAS5 product in its original form and after augmentation. The results highlight the potential of the linear projection method (specifically Q-Q method) to improve the accuracy of hindcast precipitation and provide valuable insights for water resource planning in the study area.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-Decadal Variations of Severe Cyclonic Storm Frequency Over the Bay of Bengal and Associated Mechanisms
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8754
P. H. Hrudya, Gopinadh Konda, Jasti S. Chowdary, C. Gnanaseelan, Anant Parekh
{"title":"Multi-Decadal Variations of Severe Cyclonic Storm Frequency Over the Bay of Bengal and Associated Mechanisms","authors":"P. H. Hrudya,&nbsp;Gopinadh Konda,&nbsp;Jasti S. Chowdary,&nbsp;C. Gnanaseelan,&nbsp;Anant Parekh","doi":"10.1002/joc.8754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8754","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study explores the multi-decadal variability of Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) frequency over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during post-monsoon season for the period 1950–2022. The SCS frequency displays noticeable decadal/multi-decadal variability during the study period, and shows a strong relationship with mid-tropospheric relative humidity (RH) and sea surface temperature (SST) over BoB. Influence of the large-scale climate modes, such as Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in modulating the BoB SCS frequency on multi-decadal time scale is highlighted. It is found that AMO exhibits a significant out-of-phase relationship with SCS decadal frequency over the BoB. Detailed analysis suggests that large-scale circulation changes associated with the negative phase of AMO (strong SCS decade) induced low-level convergence extending from western Indian Ocean to southern BoB favour increased SCS frequency. A negative AMO (strong SCS period) induced zonally oriented upper-level convergence and divergence centres, corroborated by the Walker circulation, helped to modulate the low-level circulation over BoB. High RH and warm SSTs associated with the negative AMO further supported the increased SCS frequency over BoB. In the case of weak SCS decade, positive AMO induced low-level divergence over southern BoB through atmospheric teleconnections provides unfavourable conditions for SCS formation. In addition to this, changes in the tropospheric temperature over the mid-latitudes caused by mid-latitude Rossby waves also contributed to the differences in SCS frequency on the multi-decadal time scale. This study highlights the role of AMO in modulating the multi-decadal SCS frequency over the BoB. The results presented here are useful for improving the decadal prediction of cyclone frequency over the BoB.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From Dry to Temperate: How Climate Change Alters Growing Seasons?
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8752
Mehraneh Khodamorad Pour, Negin Hessami, Vahid Varshavian
{"title":"From Dry to Temperate: How Climate Change Alters Growing Seasons?","authors":"Mehraneh Khodamorad Pour,&nbsp;Negin Hessami,&nbsp;Vahid Varshavian","doi":"10.1002/joc.8752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8752","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The thermal growing season, which represents a plant's theoretical growth season, is a key indicator of phenology's response to climate change. Using thermal growing season indices (start, end and length) and their sensitivity to air temperature, this study examines how climate change impacts them. For various climate types of Iran, Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests were applied to examine trends in thermal growing season indices at two temperature thresholds: 5°C (for cold-season plants) and 10°C (for tropical plants) between 1995 and 2020. Using a novel heuristic algorithm, multiple linear regressions were used to determine the most influential seasonal air temperature indices including mean, range and extreme on thermal growth indices as well. Plants in cold and temperate climates experienced significant early onset and lengthening of their growing seasons, with tropical plants on northern coasts experiencing the earliest onset (14.7 days/decade) and the lengthening growing season (16 days/decade). For plants in cold climates, the end of the growing season was also delayed (5 days/decade). The onset growth season was most sensitive to spring minimum and average temperatures in cold and temperate climates, while it was most sensitive to winter average temperatures in dry climates. In cold climates, changing spring and winter temperature ranges also affected the onset of the growing season, while in dry climates, changing autumn temperature ranges affected the end of the growing season. However, extreme temperatures only affect the end of the growing season in temperate climates. Furthermore, the early onset of the growing season is the primary factor contributing to the lengthening of the growing season in all climates. The findings of this study can assist in developing and implementing agriculture and water resource management strategies that mitigate climate change's adverse effects.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High-Resolution Analysis of Severe Heat Wave Dynamics and Thermal Discomfort Across India
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8753
Kesireddy Lakshman, Raghu Nadimpalli, Akhil Srivastava, K. K. Osuri, Raju Attada, Anant Parekh
{"title":"High-Resolution Analysis of Severe Heat Wave Dynamics and Thermal Discomfort Across India","authors":"Kesireddy Lakshman,&nbsp;Raghu Nadimpalli,&nbsp;Akhil Srivastava,&nbsp;K. K. Osuri,&nbsp;Raju Attada,&nbsp;Anant Parekh","doi":"10.1002/joc.8753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8753","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study explores variability and dynamical characteristics of heatwaves during March–June for 1990–2020 over India. Normalised <i>T</i>\u0000 <sub>max</sub> anomaly is used to identify different heatwave spells in vulnerable regions of North-central India (NCI) and Southeast coast of India (SECI) using India Meteorological Department (IMD, 1° × 1° resolution) observations, Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA, 0.12° × 0.12°), and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5, 0.25° × 0.25°). Results highlight that IMDAA exhibited a total 202 days (181 days) heatwaves duration in NCI (SECI) regions while ERA5 exhibited a total 132 days (89 days), respectively, compared with those of IMD (195 and 163 days). The primary heatwave periods for NCI (10 April to 20 June) and SECI region (1 May to 10 June) are well captured by IMDAA, unlike ERA5. The average length of the heatwave is 7.8, 7.5, and 7.76 days (8.15, 7.72, and 6.1 days) over NCI (SECI) in IMD, IMDAA, and ERA5, respectively. The high heat stress is more frequent in SECI than in the NCI region and is common during May–June (May only), as seen in IMDAA (ERA5). The middle to upper-level anticyclone over NCI is stronger than SECI during heatwaves. Heat advection with stronger 850-hPa north-westerlies (~10 ms<sup>−1</sup>) abates sea breeze in the coastal region, aiding longer heatwaves in the SECI region. Ascending motion induced by surface heating is confined to the lower levels due to the subsidence by the upper-level anomalous anticyclone, stagnating higher temperatures in the lower atmosphere, depicting a heat dome. The surface temperatures are slightly higher in NCI (31°C–39°C) than in SECI (30°C–37°C). However, the double moist heat dome in SECI has witnessed higher heat stress conditions than NCI. Higher relative humidity in the SECI region is contributed by maritime winds from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, soil moisture, and so forth. The study highlights the value of atmospheric moisture in differentiating the study regions for heat stress conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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