International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Discerning the Elevated Risk of Compound Extreme Heat Stress Followed by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Socially Vulnerable Communities in the Upper Midwest","authors":"Manas Khan,&nbsp;Rabin Bhattarai,&nbsp;Liang Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8868","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound extreme events have the potential to yield severe socio-economic repercussions. This study delves into compound extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress (CEPHS), an aspect that needs more extensive examination within the compound event framework in the upper Midwestern United States. Results reveal a significant increasing trend in CEPHS occurrences, particularly in Kentucky, lower, central, and northern parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, central parts of Missouri, northern parts of Michigan, and western and north-eastern parts of Iowa from 1979 to 2021. Moreover, we observed significantly higher intensities of extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress compared to those occurring independently, predominantly in the central and northern parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio during the same period. Our analysis also underscores a robust association between CEPHS and convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. These insights offer valuable implications for flood hazard management strategies under climate change within the region.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8868","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting of the Zone of Occurrence of Extreme Weather Event—Heat Waves","authors":"Neetu Tyagi,&nbsp;Adarsh Dube,&nbsp;S. Lakshmi,&nbsp;Somenath Dutta,&nbsp;Akhil Srivastava","doi":"10.1002/joc.8856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8856","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this study, an attempt has been made to examine whether there has been any significant shift in the region of occurrence of extreme weather events associated with high temperature in the past decades during the months of March to June Following the India Meteorological Department (IMD) guidelines, we have identified heatwave locations all over India for the period 1991–2020 (3 decades) using the MAUSAM report and the period 1961–2020 (6 decades) using IMD gridded datasets at 1° × 1° resolution. In the first part, an analysis of extreme weather events caused by heatwaves (HW) and severe heatwaves (SHW) has been made. In each decade, a broad region of recurrence associated with HW/SHW has been identified. This process is repeated for a decadal-wise study. We observed a spatial–temporal shift in the occurrence of HW/SHW events, with a significantly increasing and decreasing trend in Indian states with HW/SHW-prone regions. The west coastal region has seen an increase in HW locations starting with the Konkan Coast up to Kerala. Also, the North-eastern states are facing HW/SHW in the third decade, which is a contradiction to otherwise cooler conditions. In the third decade, SHW locations appear as marked from northwest to southeast India around the central region, as if following a linear structure. The occurrence of HW/SHW in hilly states like Meghalaya, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand is an unprecedented and disastrous condition that can be a dangerous trend for the future. This observational evidence provides valuable insights into the impact of climate change on extreme heat events and helps inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Daily Propagation Characteristics of Short-Duration and Long-Duration Drought Process From Meteorology to Agriculture in Guangxi, China","authors":"Zongheng Li,&nbsp;Yunchuan Yang,&nbsp;Jiazhen Yang,&nbsp;Liping Liao,&nbsp;Liqing Liang,&nbsp;Changzheng Wei,&nbsp;Mengdong He,&nbsp;Chongxun Mo,&nbsp;Xungui Li,&nbsp;Guikai Sun","doi":"10.1002/joc.8870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8870","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Guangxi's widespread Karst region and arable land on low hills and slopes have caused agricultural droughts triggered by meteorological droughts to become frequent over the years. This study evaluates meteorological and agricultural droughts using the daily-scale standardised weighted average precipitation (SWAP) and soil moisture condition index (SMCI), respectively. The objective identification technique for regional extreme events (OITREE) is applied to capture drought events and analyse their dynamics. Droughts are categorised by duration into short-duration (SD) events (5–30 days) and long-duration (LD) events (over 30 days). Based on these methodologies, the research reveals daily-scale relationships of drought propagation from multiple dimensions. From 1979 to 2015, Guangxi experienced 125 meteorological droughts and 178 agricultural droughts, with 67 pairs successfully matched. Agricultural droughts on average lag meteorological droughts by 10 days. The onset lag time varies across different scenarios: seasonal (7 days), consecutive SD (3.3 days) and alternating SD and LD (6.75 days). Similarly, for daily integrated intensity peaks, the lag times in these three scenarios are 14.72, 10.25 and 14.33 days, respectively. Spatial distributions of drought indices under seasonal and alternating SD and LD droughts showed significant consistency, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.49 and 0.61, respectively. In contrast, consecutive SD droughts exhibited weaker correlations, with a mean coefficient of 0.25. The research further revealed correlations between characteristic factors of meteorological and agricultural droughts under both matched and unmatched scenarios. These findings support understanding the daily spatiotemporal evolution of meteorological–agricultural droughts in Guangxi, enabling dynamic risk prediction and early warning for drought mitigation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatological Context of the Severe Rain-on-Snow Flooding Event of March 2019 in Eastern Nebraska","authors":"Z. J. Suriano,&nbsp;S. Davidson,&nbsp;R. D. Dixon,&nbsp;T. Roy","doi":"10.1002/joc.8840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8840","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The rain-on-snow event of March 12–14, 2019, in eastern Nebraska was caused by a rapidly intensifying mid-latitude cyclone that resulted in over 80 mm of liquid precipitation and the ablation of over 25 mm of liquid equivalent in the snowpack. The resulting flood caused over $10 billion in damage by some estimates. Here, we sought to evaluate specific dimensions of this event within the broader climatological context to determine how unique the event was relative to a longer period of record. Results suggest that the mid-latitude cyclone had a central pressure over 30 hPa lower than its classified synoptic weather type, leading to greater warm advection and temperature and dewpoint anomalies as high as +8°C and+10°C, respectively. The 3-day sequence of weather types corresponding to the event was observed only three other times over a 1948–2021 period of record, while the 2-day sequence of just March 13–14 occurred just 25 other times. The magnitude of daily precipitation during the event was in the 100th percentile of all rain-on-snow (ROS) precipitation events for 16% of the basin and likely was a primary driver of observed flooding. Similarly, daily snow loss during the event across eastern Nebraska was above the 95th percentile relative to 1981–2021 climatology for most of eastern Nebraska. Collectively, our results suggest the March 2019 ROS event was an extreme event across multiple individual facets, but they were not without climatological precedent. As such, this event is a useful case study for understanding extreme rain-on-snow events across the Central United States.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Sandwich-Like Pattern of Eastern China Summer Precipitation Change Projected by CMIP6 Models","authors":"Xuemei Liu,&nbsp;Lu Wang,&nbsp;Xiaolong Chen,&nbsp;Lin Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8869","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A reliable projection of the summer (June–August) mean precipitation over eastern China (EC) in the future is crucial for climate adaptation activities in this densely populated region. In contrast to existing studies, which have primarily focused on the EC mean precipitation change and have demonstrated a wetting trend in the future, this study, based on an analysis of 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, highlights that the future precipitation rise within the EC area is distributed inhomogeneously with latitudes. The southern and northern EC regions are projected to experience a pronounced increase in precipitation, while the middle EC, where the well-known meiyu-baiu rainbelt is located, is expected to witness a comparatively weaker rise. This sandwich-like pattern is consistent across models and is evident irrespective of future periods and greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios specified. The findings have significant implications for the future management of water resources along China's major rivers, which are all located within the EC. Further analysis of the moisture budget indicates that the dynamical response to global warming is the key driver of this sandwich-like pattern of precipitation change. The relatively weak precipitation increase over the central EC is attributed to the eastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the future, while a more pronounced precipitation increase over the northern EC is related to the enhanced southerly wind along the eastern coast of China.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calculating the Temperature Trend Bias Induced by Inhomogeneities Into Climate Data Without Running a Homogenization Algorithm","authors":"Ralf Lindau","doi":"10.1002/joc.8867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8867","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Inhomogeneities are known to induce sudden jumps into the time series of climate stations. If these jumps tend to be upwards, a spurious positive trend will be inserted into the data, which would falsify the true climate trend. The classic method to identify such biases is to run a homogenisation algorithm and to assess the statistics of the found jump heights. However, in the past it was shown that already small detection errors lead to a strong systematic underestimation of such trend biases. Therefore, an alternative method is proposed that calculates the trend bias directly from the original data without previous homogenisation. First, the Composite Reference (CR) technique is applied where networks of neighbouring stations are compiled and one station is selected as a candidate from which the average of the others is subtracted. In this way, not only the common climate signal is eliminated, but also the common trend bias. However, we do not use the CR data directly, but consecutive differences of it, thus the change from year-to-year within the CR time series. In this way, large data volumes are available which are of course dominated by noise, but also the effect of a possible trend bias is traceable. Every break occurring in the candidate arises also in the reference of all other stations, where it is attenuated by averaging and with opposite sign, as the reference is subtracted. In this way, every inhomogeneity produces one large jump and many small ones with reversed sign so that the median is shifted. This effect is exploited in the proposed method. An application to temperature data from U.S. climate stations shows that there is no significant trend bias caused by inhomogeneities.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8867","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatology and Trends of Dust Emission in the Kavir Desert, Iran","authors":"Omid Alizadeh,&nbsp;Ramin Ahmadi,&nbsp;Tobias Sauter","doi":"10.1002/joc.8863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8863","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Mineral dust is one of the most abundant atmospheric aerosols, influencing climate, air quality, and ecosystems through its interactions with radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycles. As climate change accelerates, understanding the evolution of dust emission is critical for assessing environmental and societal impacts, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study examines the climatology and long-term trends of dust emission and concentration over the Kavir Desert from 1980 to 2022 using the MERRA-2 dataset, with the aim of identifying the meteorological and soil-related drivers contributing to trends in dust emission. Understanding these drivers is essential for improving dust storm forecasts and developing targeted mitigation strategies. Our findings reveal significant seasonal and monthly variability in dust emission, primarily driven by near-surface wind speed and soil moisture. The highest emission occurs in summer (June–August), followed by spring, autumn, and winter, with peak values concentrated in the western Kavir Desert. Summer emissions are largely controlled by strong winds and drier soils, whereas winter emissions are suppressed by higher precipitation and weaker winds. Over the study period, dust emission has significantly increased, particularly in March, April, June, July, September and October, with the strongest rise in July. These trends are closely linked to strengthening near-surface wind, underscoring the dominant role of wind-driven dust mobilisation, with soil desiccation further contributing in some months. If current climate trends persist, rising temperature and declining soil moisture may further intensify dust activity in the Kavir Desert. Our findings underscore the need for proactive environmental policies to address the long-term ecological, climatic and socio-economic impacts of increasing dust emission.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the Stepwise Correction Module Used in the Pairwise Homogenisation Algorithm","authors":"Ralf Lindau","doi":"10.1002/joc.8865","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8865","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Several benchmarking studies of homogenisation algorithms exist, aiming at the skill of the algorithms as a whole. However, the algorithms consist of different combinations of basic statistical tools. A specific investigation of these techniques can reveal which of them are crucial for the performance. In the past, most effort was put into the detection part, where the positions of the breakpoints are determined. In this paper, the correction part is in focus, where the jump heights are finally calculated and eliminated. We concentrate on the performance of the step-wise correction module used in the Pairwise Homogenisation Algorithm (PHA). Assuming perfect detection, a generic prototype of the module is applied to simulated data. As a skill measure, we use the correct determination of the network-mean trend induced by the breaks. We show that large scatter occurs due to an amplification of the noise, just because the correction is carried out step by step. The mutual use of all stations within a network leads to dependent corrections for the individual stations so that the error variance of the overall correction remains high. A simple but effective technique is presented to increase the performance of stepwise correction. The proposed stepwise method provides largely similar results as the ANOVA method. Both eliminate a possible trend bias induced by the breaks almost entirely, but also add large scatter to the corrected trends. In case that the original data contain no trend bias so that the bias correction does not apply, the data may be even worsened by the homogenisation, if the time series contain six or more breaks.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8865","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting Summertime Nocturnal Rainfall Over the Western Sichuan Basin in Relation to Near-Surface Winds","authors":"Xuelin Hu,&nbsp;Jian Li,&nbsp;Haoming Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8860","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Near-surface winds (NSW) play a crucial role in linking topographical forcing and rainfall triggering. However, the NSW characteristics over the western Sichuan Basin (SCB) have been largely overlooked, limiting our understanding of the unique rainfall features in this complex terrain. This study aims to address this gap by analysing station-observed hourly rainfall and 10-m wind records during the summers from 2015 to 2022. We identified that a near-surface cyclonic circulation pattern exists over the western SCB on precipitation days (PDs). Specifically, a near-surface northerly-to-westerly wind shear was observed between the northern and southern parts of the western SCB during night-time on PDs. This wind shear forms as the wind over the northern part rotates from south-easterly in the afternoon to north-westerly at night, while wind over the southern part rotates from north-easterly in the afternoon to southwesterly at night. The intensity of this wind shear was significantly correlated with rainfall on the daily scale. Such a wind shear was also observed on the event scale, even when the dominant NSW patterns are different. The wind shear intensity increased gradually prior to the onset of rainfall events, providing favourable near-surface dynamic conditions for rainfall. The formation of the wind shear was found possibly related to the generation of a lee vortex downstream of the Yungui Plateau. The spatio-temporal characteristics of NSW identified in our results aim to enhance our understanding of the mechanisms driving nocturnal rainfall in the western SCB and to provide near-surface metrics for model improvement over complex terrains.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Ocean Initialization in Improving the Decadal Prediction Skill of East Asian Summer Monsoon","authors":"Weitao Zhang,&nbsp;Yujun He,&nbsp;Bin Wang,&nbsp;Feifei Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.8864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8864","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits significant decadal variations and influences the summer rainfall in China, which has a great impact on the economic and social activities there. Thus, the accurate decadal prediction of the EASM has important scientific significance and application value. One of the key factors affecting the decadal prediction skills is initialization, which incorporates the observed internal variability into the initial condition (IC). However, few studies have pointed out the importance of ocean initialization in improving the EASM prediction skill. This study focuses on the decadal prediction of the EASM by FGOALS-g2, a coupled climate model, initialized by incorporating the oceanic analysis data using the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) data assimilation method. High decadal prediction skill is obtained, which outperforms those achieved by most decadal prediction systems participated in the fifth and sixth phases of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5&amp;6). Additionally, the spatial distribution of summer rainfall anomalies in China exhibits notable improvement compared to the uninitialized simulation. The high prediction skill is attributed to an accurate representation of land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western Pacific as that represented in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, which benefits from the accurate prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to realistic ocean IC obtained through ocean initialization. This study emphasises the crucial role of ocean initialization based on a DRP-4DVar method in enhancing the decadal prediction skill of the EASM.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}