International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Regulatory factors and climatic impacts of marine heatwaves over the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2020","authors":"Xiaojuan Zhang,&nbsp;Fei Zheng,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Gong","doi":"10.1002/joc.8630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8630","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Arctic warming has been substantially greater than that in the rest of the world and has had an important influence on the global climate. This study first explores the temporal and spatial evolutionary characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the Arctic Ocean in multiyear ice (MYI), first-year ice (FYI), and open-water (OPW) regions from 1982 to 2020. MHWs in the Arctic Ocean show obvious spatial and seasonal variations, mainly occurring over the FYI region in the JAS (July–August–September, JAS), and their occurrences have a significant increasing trend in recent decades, accompanied by an abrupt increase since 2010. Furthermore, a multivariable network-based method is adopted to delineate the relationship between different climatic factors and MHWs in the Arctic Ocean and the climatic impacts of MHWs. The results show that the correlations between different climatic factors and MHWs in JAS in 2010–2020 are generally stronger than those in 1982–2009, and the main influencing factors of MHWs in different ice covers are different. MHWs in the MYI region are mainly affected by freshwater dilution processes, such as sea-ice concentrations (SIC), precipitation, and mixed-layer salinity. For the FYI region, the 2-m air temperature and total heat flux mainly affect MHWs by thermodynamic processes, and the 500-hPa geopotential height affects MHWs mainly by large-scale atmospheric circulation. The MHWs in the OPW region are mainly related to the SIC, 850-hPa geopotential height, and 10-m <i>v</i>-wind, indicating that they are correlated with atmospheric processes and wind fields. MHWs in JAS are also revealed to reduce or delay the formation of sea ice in OND (October–November–December, OND) by storing more abnormal heat, indicating that unfrozen ocean surfaces may lead to enhanced Arctic amplification in the following seasons.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5297-5319"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Climatological Analysis of Upper-Level Velocity Potential Using Global Weather Reanalysis, 1959–2020","authors":"Tyler J. Stanfield,&nbsp;Craig Allen Ramseyer","doi":"10.1002/joc.8659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8659","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Upper-level (200 hPa) velocity potential (VP200) is useful in identifying areas of rising or sinking atmospheric motions on varying temporal scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, interannual) especially in the global tropics. These areas are associated with enhancement (rising motion) or suppression (sinking motion) of tropical convection and subsequent weather phenomena dependent on these processes (e.g., tropical cyclones). This study employed commonly used global weather reanalysis datasets to calculate and compare VP200 on interannual through multidecadal temporal scales and quantify any differences that existed between them from 1959 to 2020 over four key regions of tropical variability (Equatorial Africa, Amazon Basin, Equatorial Central Pacific, and Equatorial Indonesia). To supplement this analysis, the highly correlated variables to VP200 of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and daily precipitation rate were used and directly compared with independent OLR and precipitation datasets to determine the reanalysis' level of agreement with the independent data. The ECMWF ERA5 held the highest agreement to these data over all regions examined and was reasoned to have the highest confidence in accurately capturing the variability of VP200 fields for the study period. Confidence was decreased in the usefulness of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 as it consistently performed poorly over much of the study domain. The results of this study also emphasised the usefulness in ensemble-based approaches to assess climate variability and understanding of potential biases and uncertainties that are inherent in these data sources.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5667-5692"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8659","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing Satellite, Reanalysis, Fused and Gridded (In Situ) Precipitation Products Over Türkiye","authors":"Abdullah Akbas,&nbsp;Hasan Ozdemir","doi":"10.1002/joc.8671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8671","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Precipitation is the fundamental source for various research areas, including hydrology, climatology, geomorphology, and ecology, serving essential roles in modelling, distribution, and process analysis. However, the accuracy and precision of spatially distributed precipitation estimates is a critical issue, particularly for daily scale and topographically complex areas. Although many datasets have been developed based on different algorithms and sources are developed for this purpose, determining which of these datasets best reflects actual conditions is quite challenging. This study, hence, aims to compare the 25 global distributed precipitation estimates (gridded, satellite, model, and fused) concerning 221 ground-based observations based on the ranking of 18 continuous (evaluation statistics), eight categorical (precipitation indices), and two seasonality metric (high and low precipitation). Upon examining the results, gridded and model precipitation data including APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation—Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation), CPC (Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation), ERA5-Land (ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation for Lands), and CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) occupy the top four positions in continuous metrics. In contrast, satellite data such as PERSIANN-PDIR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center morphing method), IMERG (The Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM), and TRMM-TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) dominate in the top four positions in categorical metrics. For seasonality of high and low precipitation, fused, gridded, and reanalyses products such as CPC, MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation, version 2), HydroGFD (Hydrological Global Forcing Data), CFSR rank among top four. Based on the first five rankings of all metrics, fused (multiple sourced) and gridded datasets accurately reflect the actual situations compared to other precipitation products. Reanalysis (model) and satellite-based follow this rank, respectively. The results clearly indicate that fused precipitation derived products from multiple sources offer better accuracy and precision in representing the spatial distribution of precipitation on a daily scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5873-5889"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8671","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing the Uncertainty in the Tropical Precipitation through a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach","authors":"Archana Majhi,&nbsp;C. T. Dhanya,&nbsp;Sonali Pattanayak,&nbsp;Sumedha Chakma","doi":"10.1002/joc.8665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8665","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The inherent model uncertainty in precipitation projections is found to be more dominant over tropical regions thereby reducing the reliability of using them in climate change impact assessment studies. To address such issues, a subset of well performing global climate models (GCMs) can provide narrow range of possible future outcomes, which can be helpful in formulating mitigation and adaptation strategies that are more targeted and efficient. In this study, climate models are selected based on their performance in simulating relative humidity and vertical velocity since these variables play an important role in precipitation simulation and significantly contribute toward the intermodel spread. The models are evaluated by using various statistical performance measures and ranked using multi-criteria decision-making approaches. Finally, based on Jenks natural breaks optimization algorithm, subset of GCMs consisting of ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3 and INM-CM4 models, are considered as the best possible subset for precipitation simulation over tropical land regions. Two observational precipitation datasets are further considered to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The proposed methodology is validated to be effective in identifying the best climate models since the resulting subset is capable of both capturing observed precipitation and minimizing the uncertainty in future projections. Hence, this methodology can be utilized further for performance evaluation of GCMs focusing different geography and climatic drivers.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5773-5790"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Interpolation of Seasonal Precipitations Using Rain Gauge Data and Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model Simulations in a Complex Topographical Region","authors":"Valentin Dura,&nbsp;Guillaume Evin,&nbsp;Anne-Catherine Favre,&nbsp;David Penot","doi":"10.1002/joc.8662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8662","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In mountainous areas, accurately estimating the long-term climatology of seasonal precipitations is challenging due to the lack of high-altitude rain gauges and the complexity of the topography. This study addresses these challenges by interpolating seasonal precipitation data from 3189 rain gauges across France over the 1982–2018 period, using geographical coordinates, and altitude. In this study, an additional predictor is provided from simulations of a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM). The simulations are averaged to obtain seasonal precipitation climatology, which helps capture the relationship between topography and long-term seasonal precipitation. Geostatistical and machine learning models are evaluated within a cross-validation framework to determine the most appropriate approach to generate seasonal precipitation reference fields. Results indicate that the best model uses a machine learning approach to interpolate the ratio between long-term seasonal precipitation from observations and CP-RCM simulations. This method successfully reproduces both the mean and variance of observed data, and slightly outperforms the best geostatistical model. Moreover, incorporating the CP-RCM outputs as an explanatory variable significantly improves interpolation accuracy and altitude extrapolation, especially when the rain gauge density is low. These results imply that the commonly used altitude-precipitation relationship may be insufficient to derive seasonal precipitation fields. The CP-RCM simulations, increasingly available worldwide, present an opportunity for improving precipitation interpolation, especially in sparse and complex topographical regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5745-5760"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8662","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of CMIP6 Models-Based Climate Biases and Runoff Sensitivity on Runoff Projection Uncertainties Over Central India","authors":"Shoobhangi Tyagi,&nbsp;Sandeep Sahany,&nbsp;Dharmendra Saraswat,&nbsp;Saroj Kanta Mishra,&nbsp;Amlendu Dubey,&nbsp;Dev Niyogi","doi":"10.1002/joc.8661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8661","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate runoff projections are vital for developing climate adaptation strategies, yet significant uncertainties persist. The commonly employed approaches to constrain these uncertainties rely on the stationarity of climate biases and runoff sensitivity, which may not hold for climate-sensitive regions (e.g., semi-arid regions). This study investigates the validity of the stationarity assumption across 29 CMIP6 models, encompassing diverse climate biases (Dry Warm, Wet Warm, Dry Cold, and Wet Cold), utilising a semi-arid region in central India as a testbed. The implications of this assumption on runoff projection uncertainties were comprehensively assessed across the runoff modelling chain for three time periods (the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s) based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations. The results highlight the non-stationary nature of climate biases and runoff sensitivity under future scenarios, challenging the widespread applicability of common uncertainty-constraining approaches. Moreover, the impact of non-stationarity on runoff projection uncertainty was found to be strongly influenced by the choice of GCMs, preprocessing methods and climate change scenarios. In the 2030s, GCMs dominate runoff uncertainty, with dry models exhibiting ~10%–15% higher uncertainty compared to warm models, which is further amplified when interacting with warm biases. However, from the mid-century onwards, the bias-adjustment approaches and climate change scenarios significantly shape runoff projection uncertainties under non-stationary conditions. These findings emphasise the potential of climate bias and runoff sensitivity-based GCM selection for reducing runoff uncertainty in near-future assessment (2030s). For mid-term and long-term runoff projections, addressing diverse climate biases through bias-adjustment approaches is more viable. This study offers critical insights to prioritise the development of a non-stationarity-based approach for reliable runoff projections in climate-sensitive regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5727-5744"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8661","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Limitations of Multi-Model Ensembling of Climate Model Outputs in Capturing Climate Extremes","authors":"Velpuri Manikanta,&nbsp;V. Manohar Reddy,&nbsp;Jew Das","doi":"10.1002/joc.8660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8660","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the context of climate change, the widespread practice of directly employing Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) for projecting future climate extremes, without prior evaluation of MME performance in historical periods, remains underexplored. This research addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis of ensemble means derived from CMIP6-based models, including both simple and weighted averages of precipitation (SEMP and WEMP) and temperature (SEMT and WEMT) time series, as well as simple (SEME) and weighted (WEME) averages of extremes based on model-by-model analysis. The study evaluates the efficacy of MMEs in capturing mean annual values of ETCCDI indices over India for the period 1951–2014, utilising the IMD gridded data set as a reference. The results reveal that SEME and WEME consistently align closely with IMD data across various precipitation indices. At the same time, SEMP and WEMP consistently display underestimation biases ranging from 20% to 80% across all precipitation indices, except for CWD, where there is an overestimation bias. Moreover, SEMP and WEMP consistently underestimate CDD and overestimate CWD, indicating a systematic bias in these ensemble means, while WEME and SEME demonstrate satisfactory performance. SEMT and WEMT exhibit notable underestimation in temperature indices. In summary, adopting SEME and SEMT leads to a more robust assessment of precipitation and temperature extremes, respectively. These findings highlight the limitations of traditional MME methodologies in reproducing observed extreme precipitation events across various climatic zones in India, offering essential insights for refining climate models and improving the reliability of climate projections specific to the Indian subcontinent.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5711-5726"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Multiscalar Standardized Vapor Pressure Deficit Index for Drought Monitoring and Impacts","authors":"Isioma Jessica Nwayor,&nbsp;Scott M. Robeson,&nbsp;Darren L. Ficklin,&nbsp;Justin T. Maxwell","doi":"10.1002/joc.8668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8668","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical measure of the atmospheric demand for water and can be used to assess short-term and seasonal drought. To provide for probabilistic comparisons of VPD across space and time, we develop a Standardized Vapor Pressure Deficit Index (SVPDI). Similar to the way that other standardised drought indices are used, SVPDI allows for the analysis and comparison of changes in VPD across regions with different base level VPD values. It also should be useful for analysing impacts on vegetation that has varying levels of adaptation to high VPD. We use 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales for the development of SVPDI and show that the gamma distribution is superior to other zero-limited probability distributions for analysing VPD and, therefore, for calculating SVPDI. Then, focusing on the short-term variations at the 1- and 3-month timescales, we show how SVPDI has changed globally from 1958 to 2023 and how those changes differ from those of the commonly used Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). We find that SVPDI shows more widespread drying conditions that also are larger in magnitude compared to those of SPEI. Although the two indices are moderately well correlated across the terrestrial surface, we discover that they are more decoupled in humid and arid regions compared to dry sub-humid and semi-arid regions. Using four locations that have recently experienced severe drought, we find that SVPDI generally showed longer drought duration and more severe drought events in the last decade when compared to SPEI.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5825-5838"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8668","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models","authors":"Li Tang,&nbsp;Riyu Lu,&nbsp;Zhongda Lin,&nbsp;Jian Lu,&nbsp;Ziming Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8647","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5474-5486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on Weather Types Applied to the South Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Luana Borato,&nbsp;Antonio Fernando Härter Fetter Filho,&nbsp;Paula Gomes da Silva,&nbsp;Fernando Javier Mendez,&nbsp;Antonio Henrique da Fontoura Klein","doi":"10.1002/joc.8653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8653","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Changes in climate in the South Atlantic region and adjacent regions have been described in numerous works using projections from global climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6. This paper presents an evaluation of the ability of these models to reproduce the atmospheric circulation patterns (weather types) and their seasonal and inter-annual variability. The analyses are performed based on the probability of occurrence of weather types in the historical period and in future projections. The scatter index and the relative entropy are the statistical parameters used to evaluate the models' performance in the historical period. Future projections consist of RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the CMIP5 models and the SSP126, 245, 370 and 585 scenarios for the CMIP6 and are assessed at different time intervals: short term (2015–2039), mid-term (2040–2069) and long term (2070–2100). The performance of projections is measured by analysing their consistency, that is, based on the similarity between projections of the same scenario in different models. The results show that the reproduction of the probability of occurrence of historical weather types and their seasonal and interannual variability was better performed by ACCESS1-0, HadGEM2-ES, HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM and MPI-ESM-P when assessing the models from CMIP5, and by HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, ACCESS- CM2 and MRI-ESM-P when assessing the models from CMIP6. As for future projections, only the BESM-AO2-5, GFDL-ESM4 and HadGEM3-GC31-MM models showed inconsistency in one or more scenarios.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5580-5595"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}