Discerning the Elevated Risk of Compound Extreme Heat Stress Followed by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Socially Vulnerable Communities in the Upper Midwest

Compound extreme events have the potential to yield severe socio-economic repercussions. This study delves into compound extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress (CEPHS), an aspect that needs more extensive examination within the compound event framework in the upper Midwestern United States. Results reveal a significant increasing trend in CEPHS occurrences, particularly in Kentucky, lower, central, and northern parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, central parts of Missouri, northern parts of Michigan, and western and north-eastern parts of Iowa from 1979 to 2021. Moreover, we observed significantly higher intensities of extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress compared to those occurring independently, predominantly in the central and northern parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio during the same period. Our analysis also underscores a robust association between CEPHS and convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. These insights offer valuable implications for flood hazard management strategies under climate change within the region.