Climatology and Trends of Dust Emission in the Kavir Desert, Iran

Mineral dust is one of the most abundant atmospheric aerosols, influencing climate, air quality, and ecosystems through its interactions with radiation, clouds and biogeochemical cycles. As climate change accelerates, understanding the evolution of dust emission is critical for assessing environmental and societal impacts, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study examines the climatology and long-term trends of dust emission and concentration over the Kavir Desert from 1980 to 2022 using the MERRA-2 dataset, with the aim of identifying the meteorological and soil-related drivers contributing to trends in dust emission. Understanding these drivers is essential for improving dust storm forecasts and developing targeted mitigation strategies. Our findings reveal significant seasonal and monthly variability in dust emission, primarily driven by near-surface wind speed and soil moisture. The highest emission occurs in summer (June–August), followed by spring, autumn, and winter, with peak values concentrated in the western Kavir Desert. Summer emissions are largely controlled by strong winds and drier soils, whereas winter emissions are suppressed by higher precipitation and weaker winds. Over the study period, dust emission has significantly increased, particularly in March, April, June, July, September and October, with the strongest rise in July. These trends are closely linked to strengthening near-surface wind, underscoring the dominant role of wind-driven dust mobilisation, with soil desiccation further contributing in some months. If current climate trends persist, rising temperature and declining soil moisture may further intensify dust activity in the Kavir Desert. Our findings underscore the need for proactive environmental policies to address the long-term ecological, climatic and socio-economic impacts of increasing dust emission.