International Journal of Climatology最新文献_第4页

Application of XGBoost in Disentangling the Fingerprints of Global Warming and Decadal Climate Modes on Seasonal Precipitation Trends in Ohio XGBoost在解开全球变暖和年代际气候模态对俄亥俄州季节性降水趋势的指纹图谱中的应用

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8829

Caitlin Wegener, Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi

{"title":"Application of XGBoost in Disentangling the Fingerprints of Global Warming and Decadal Climate Modes on Seasonal Precipitation Trends in Ohio","authors":"Caitlin Wegener, Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi","doi":"10.1002/joc.8829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8829","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming (GW) is a defining challenge of the 21st century, driving notable changes in weather patterns. Simultaneously, multi-decadal climate modes, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), shape decadal climate patterns and interact to influence regional climates. This study employs the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) gain-based feature importance metric to disentangle and rank the contributions of GW and these climate modes to seasonal precipitation changes in Ohio, US, a region known for its variable weather. Monthly precipitation data from 55 weather stations spanning 1960–2023 were analysed using Theil-Sen's Slope method, with statistical significance assessed at the 95% confidence level. Results revealed statistically significant increases in precipitation in winter (3.81 mm/decade) and summer (3.30 mm/decade), with no statistically significant changes in spring and autumn. For winter precipitation, 98% of stations exhibit a statistically significant negative correlation with PDO, while 51% show a significant positive correlation with GW; significant correlations with AMO and IPO are observed in fewer than 41% of stations. Analysing feature importance with XGBoost indicates that the GW signal ranks highest in 32.7% of stations—including the northeastern regions affected by lake-effect snow. In contrast, PDO dominates 58.2% of stations, and AMO in 9.1%. These findings highlight that Ohio's winters are becoming wetter and suggest that, among the variables we analysed, the net effects of PDO, followed by GW, are the strongest predictors of winter precipitation changes in Ohio.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8829","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144315173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cold Waves in Poland: The Relations to Atmospheric Circulation and Arctic Warming 波兰寒潮：与大气环流和北极变暖的关系

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8813

Joanna Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna Wibig, Piotr Piotrowski

{"title":"Cold Waves in Poland: The Relations to Atmospheric Circulation and Arctic Warming","authors":"Joanna Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna Wibig, Piotr Piotrowski","doi":"10.1002/joc.8813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8813","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Winter warming in Europe is most apparent in the northeastern parts. The minimum temperature is increasing there at the rate of 0.5°C–0.7°C per decade. The main objective of the paper was to investigate the changes in the characteristics of cold days (CDs) and cold waves (CWs) in Poland. Then, to study the relationships and changes in the large-scale circulation with regard to CWs in Poland. Due to the increasing minimum temperature, Poland is characterised by a decreasing number of CDs and CWs from November to March 1978–2023. In recent years, CDs in Poland have been significantly less severe and are less extended, whereas CWs occur less frequently and are shorter. Recent changes in temperature and sea-ice cover in the Arctic region entail changes in the large-scale circulation in mid and high latitudes. In the 20th century, CWs in Poland were mainly related to blocking created over Scandinavia and the North Atlantic (Iceland). In the 21st century, some shifts in the centers of action were found, and CWs in Poland are primarily associated with strong blocking created over the Greenland and Ural regions. These blocking situations are followed by a negative NAO/AO and positive Greenland Blocking Index or positive Scandinavian (SCAND) pattern, which are significantly correlated with CWs in winter (SCAND only in February). It needs to be emphasised that the Arctic region is one of the most important source areas of the air masses that reach Poland during the CDs, and this area faces the greatest warming around the globe.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8813","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Predictability of Precipitation and Intraseasonal Variability: Insights From ECMWF Model Skill Over Brazil 降水的可预测性和季节内变率：来自巴西上空ECMWF模式技能的见解

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8820

Camila R. Sapucci, Víctor C. Mayta, Pedro L. Silva Dias

{"title":"Predictability of Precipitation and Intraseasonal Variability: Insights From ECMWF Model Skill Over Brazil","authors":"Camila R. Sapucci, Víctor C. Mayta, Pedro L. Silva Dias","doi":"10.1002/joc.8820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8820","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study assesses the capabilities and limitations of the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) model in forecasting precipitation and a regional intraseasonal oscillation index over Brazil. Distinct from previous studies, we employ a regional index rather than a global one, enabling a more focused analysis of the complex intraseasonal variability. Weekly accumulated precipitation forecasts are evaluated against satellite-derived precipitation data for selected regions within Brazil. Our findings indicate that the ECMWF model demonstrates enhanced forecast skill for up to 4 weeks along the northern coast of Northeast Brazil, where tropical–tropical teleconnections linked to the Madden–Julian Oscillation significantly improve predictability. However, forecast accuracy decays after 2 weeks in subtropical and extratropical areas, such as the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and Southern Brazil, primarily due to challenges in capturing synoptic-scale systems and tropical–extratropical interactions. Additionally, the ECMWF model shows strong predictability for the regional intraseasonal oscillation index up to 10 days, offering valuable insights for planning and decision-making in the face of extreme weather events. This regional index achieves a level of accuracy not possible with a global index, which is less effective at capturing the intraseasonal signals specific to South America and their impacts on extreme weather.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8820","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projections on Regional Climate and Compound Events in East Asia Based on QDM-Corrected Multiple High-Resolution CORDEX Simulations 基于qdm校正多重高分辨率CORDEX模拟的东亚区域气候和复合事件预估

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8824

Jueying Chen, Xiaoyu Zhu, Jianping Tang, Shuyu Wang, Yi Yang

{"title":"Projections on Regional Climate and Compound Events in East Asia Based on QDM-Corrected Multiple High-Resolution CORDEX Simulations","authors":"Jueying Chen, Xiaoyu Zhu, Jianping Tang, Shuyu Wang, Yi Yang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8824","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Following the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment East Asia Phase II (CORDEX-EA-II) setting, two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by four global climate models (GCMs) have been used to provide climate change information on surface air temperature and daily precipitation. A trend-preserving bias correction method, quantile delta mapping (QDM), is first validated for the historical period of 1981–2005 and then applied to the future period of 2040–2060 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios. Results show that QDM is competent in correcting model biases on temperature, precipitation and compound events (CEs, defined as the concurrent occurrence of temperature and precipitation anomalies) for both spatial distributions and annual cycles. For future assessments, a widespread warming is projected over the region, with average temperature changes higher than 1.6°C. Changes in precipitation are more region-variated. Increased precipitation is most significant in the northwestern part of the CORDEX-EA region, and some models also present a decreased precipitation in southeastern China. Climate changes on CEs correspond with the effect of global warming; RCMs present a significant increase in the frequency of hot CEs and an obvious decrease in cold-dry CEs. These results are expected to be useful for future climate assessments and for better understanding of the bias correction technique under climate change situations.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Changes in the Source Region of Yellow River: A Bayesian Vine Copula Machine Learning (BVC-ML) Approach 气候变化对黄河源区流量变化的影响评估：基于贝叶斯藤Copula机器学习（BVC-ML）方法

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8821

Xiaowen Zhuang, Yurui Fan, Baogui Xin

{"title":"Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Changes in the Source Region of Yellow River: A Bayesian Vine Copula Machine Learning (BVC-ML) Approach","authors":"Xiaowen Zhuang, Yurui Fan, Baogui Xin","doi":"10.1002/joc.8821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8821","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this study, we proposed a Bayesian Vine Copula Machine Learning (BVC-ML) method to predict streamflow changes in the Yellow River source area based on projections from three GCMs under various climate change scenarios. The BVC-ML method was to (i) use the vine copula method to reflect the interdependence between the predicted variable (i.e., streamflow) and predictions from different machine learning (ML) techniques, (ii) derive deterministic and probabilistic predictions from the vine copula model conditional on corresponding ML predictions and (iii) integrate predictions from different vine copula models to generate the final results. The proposed BVC-ML method was then applied for future streamflow projections based on outputs from CMIP6. The results from the BVC-ML method show that the studied area would generally experience more streamflow increases in most months, and the increases would become more significant as the climate change shifts from SSP126 to SSP585. The outputs from different GCM models also lead to various streamflow changes in the studied area, with the projections from ACCESS-CM2 leading to the highest streamflow increases. Furthermore, the BVC-ML method is capable of deriving both deterministic and probabilistic predictions from the conditional distributions, and the 10% and 90% quantiles can reflect predictive uncertainties. The results from the quantile predictions show that May, July and October would have the highest increases in streamflow, which are consistent with the mean streamflow increases. Overall, the proposed BVC-ML method is demonstrated to be a promising tool for predicting streamflow changes under different climate change scenarios. The findings would have significant implications for water resource management and climate adaptation over the studied region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Differences in Temperature Variation Between Winter and Summer Across China in Recent Decades 近几十年来中国冬季和夏季气温变化的差异

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8828

Yujia Shi, Guocan Wu

{"title":"Differences in Temperature Variation Between Winter and Summer Across China in Recent Decades","authors":"Yujia Shi, Guocan Wu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8828","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global warming has attracted widespread attention from scientists and the public. Temperature changes are known to have obvious regional and seasonal characteristics. Here, we explore the spatial and temporal differences in the variation of winter and summer temperatures in China using meteorological observations recorded between 1961 and 2020 to analyse the mean temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR) and day-to-day temperature variability (DTD). The climatological means, long-term changes and the relationship with the Arctic oscillation (AO) index were detected. The results showed that the mean temperature for the mid-winter days and mid-summer days fluctuated more than those over the entire winter and summer seasons, and both showed regional differences. The average daily temperature increases more in winter than in summer. The DTR decreased in recent decades, with the trend being more pronounced in winter and mid-winter days (−0.19°C/10a and −0.24°C/10a, <i>p</i> < 0.05, respectively) than in summer and mid-summer days (−0.10°C/10a and −0.07°C/10a, <i>p</i> < 0.05, respectively). DTD decreased significantly in winter and mid-winter (−0.016°C/10a and −0.022°C/10a, <i>p</i> < 0.05, respectively) and showed non-significant increasing trends in summer and mid-summer (0.001°C/10a and 0.007°C/10a, respectively). The AO index was shown to be an adequate indicator of variations in average daily temperature, DTR and DTD, being primarily positively correlated with the first parameter and negatively correlated with the latter two. These findings deepen our understanding of the different temperature variations in winter and summer across China.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial Characteristics and Evolution Mechanisms of the Indian Ocean Tripole Mode and Its Impact on Rainfall Patterns Over India 印度洋三极模态的空间特征、演化机制及其对印度降水的影响

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8815

Prerna Malik, Bhasha H. Vachharajani, B. Praveen Kumar, P. G. Remya

{"title":"Spatial Characteristics and Evolution Mechanisms of the Indian Ocean Tripole Mode and Its Impact on Rainfall Patterns Over India","authors":"Prerna Malik, Bhasha H. Vachharajani, B. Praveen Kumar, P. G. Remya","doi":"10.1002/joc.8815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8815","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The IOT mode is an interannual climate pattern in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), characterised by negative SSTA in both the eastern and western TIO, and positive SSTA in the south-central TIO. Distinct from the IOD, which accounts for 10% of SSTA variability in the TIO, the IOT explains 8% of this variance. This study reveals that strong south-westerly wind anomalies along the Somali coast and Arabian Sea associated with a positive IOT drive intense surface cooling, which spreads across the western basin through lateral advection. A typical positive IOT enhances monsoon winds over northern India, leading to increased rainfall across the Indo-Gangetic Plains, while deflecting monsoon winds further south over the southern peninsula, resulting in reduced rainfall there. Additionally, a cyclonic wind anomaly in the Bay of Bengal dampens winds over regions of northeastern India, suppressing summer monsoon rainfall. The findings underscore the significant role of the IOT in modulating monsoon rainfall and its spatial distribution. This study highlights the IOT's potential to enhance understanding of monsoon variability, and its incorporation into predictive models could improve climate resilience in monsoon-dependent regions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tropical Pacific Ocean Influence on Recent Changes in Summer Rainfall Over the Yangtze–Huai River Valley 热带太平洋对长江淮河流域夏季降水近期变化的影响

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8819

Zitong Yu, Dong Si, Yihui Ding, Xining Gao

{"title":"Tropical Pacific Ocean Influence on Recent Changes in Summer Rainfall Over the Yangtze–Huai River Valley","authors":"Zitong Yu, Dong Si, Yihui Ding, Xining Gao","doi":"10.1002/joc.8819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8819","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Summer rainfall over the Yangtze–Huai River valley (YHRV) exhibits prominent decadal variability, and understanding the underlying mechanisms of this variability is essential for improving climate predictions and disaster prevention strategies in the region. Despite extensive research, the recent changes in YHRV's summer rainfall since the late twentieth century and their driving factors remain unclear. Analysis of observational precipitation data reveals a three-stage decadal variation over the past three decades, with two major shifts occurring in the late 1990s and mid-2010s. These variations are strongly influenced by the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which has experienced a “warm–cold–warm” decadal variation during this period. During the 1990s, warming in the tropical central and eastern Pacific induced a meridional wave train extending from the western North Pacific to East Asia through the Pacific–East Asia teleconnection, leading to a weakened East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and enhanced summer rainfall in the YHRV. Since the late 1990s, the tropical central and eastern Pacific has turned from warm to cold, intensifying the EASM and resulting in a substantial shift in rainfall toward a pattern opposite to that of the 1990s. By the mid-2010s, as the tropical central and eastern Pacific cooled again, the rain belt retreated southward to the YHRV, leading to widespread summer rainfall increases across the YHRV since the mid-2010s. Pacemaker simulations, nudging observed time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean, capture well the two major rainfall shifts, providing compelling evidence that the tropical Pacific Ocean plays a key role in driving recent decadal changes in summer rainfall over the YHRV.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial–Temporal Variability of Hourly Precipitation Extremes in Portugal: Two Case Studies in Major Wine-Growing Regions 葡萄牙每小时极端降水的时空变化：两个主要葡萄酒产区的案例研究

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8812

José Cruz, Margarida Belo-Pereira, André Fonseca, João A. Santos

{"title":"Spatial–Temporal Variability of Hourly Precipitation Extremes in Portugal: Two Case Studies in Major Wine-Growing Regions","authors":"José Cruz, Margarida Belo-Pereira, André Fonseca, João A. Santos","doi":"10.1002/joc.8812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8812","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heavy precipitation events are a natural hazard that have significant socioeconomic implications, especially in sectors like agriculture, namely viticulture. This study is the first to present a detailed climatology of extreme precipitation across mainland Portugal, leveraging hourly data gathered from 71 meteorological stations over 23 years, spanning from 2000 to 2022. To understand spatial variability, we focus on Douro and Alentejo, two major winemaking regions where extreme weather events may have significant adverse consequences. High spatial variability in the <i>β</i>-index patterns (mean ratio between over-threshold precipitation and total precipitation) shows that hourly precipitation between 10 and 20 mm h<sup>−1</sup> contributes the most to winter and autumn precipitation, whereas events exceeding 20 mm h<sup>−1</sup> play a more significant role in summer and autumn. Extreme events occur most frequently between September and December, with a secondary peak observed in April and May, particularly pronounced in Alentejo. The diurnal cycle, which displays a peak in the afternoon, exhibits a close relationship with the occurrence of thunderstorms. A more in-depth analysis was conducted to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that contributed to two extreme precipitation events caused by thunderstorms in the Douro and Alentejo winemaking regions. Differing synoptic environments led to unstable conditions at the origin of these events. The Douro event was driven by a cut-off low, whereas the Alentejo event was related to an extratropical cyclone, both in their final stages of development. The regional indices and seasonal patterns identified offer insights into spatial distribution and seasonality, essential for future research and applied climate adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8812","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future Wind Conditions in the German Bight Under RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario (2006–2099) From Regional Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model System MPIOM-REMO 区域海洋-大气耦合模式系统MPIOM-REMO在RCP8.5排放情景下（2006-2099）德国沿海未来风况

IF 3.5 3区地球科学

International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8814

María Ortega, Sara Rubinetti, Gaziza Konyssova, Bernhard Mayer, Enrique Sánchez, Claudia Gutiérrez, Karen Helen Wiltshire, Vera Sidorenko

{"title":"Future Wind Conditions in the German Bight Under RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario (2006–2099) From Regional Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model System MPIOM-REMO","authors":"María Ortega, Sara Rubinetti, Gaziza Konyssova, Bernhard Mayer, Enrique Sánchez, Claudia Gutiérrez, Karen Helen Wiltshire, Vera Sidorenko","doi":"10.1002/joc.8814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8814","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The German Bight, located in the southeastern part of the North Sea, undergoes notable variations in wind direction and intensity over time. In this work, the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere system and dynamically downscaled model MPIOM-REMO under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (2006–2099) have been used to analyse future wind conditions for Helgoland Island and Dogger Bank areas in the German Bight. The results suggest an increase in wind speed with respect to the historical period (1950–2005) during the winter months, especially in westerly directions, both in the historical period and in the projected future, reaching annual winter averages of 10 m/s. Future and present wind rose comparisons at the study sites reveal distinct patterns: at Helgoland, northerly and southerly winds occur less frequently and with lower magnitudes compared to Dogger Bank. Conversely, easterly and southeasterly winds are more prevalent at Helgoland. In the historical period, wind speed tends to increase in spring, but in the projected future, it decreases by 1 m/s. The summer wind conditions stay largely the same at both sites compared to the historical period. Wind events (hours that present sustained wind in one specific direction) are one of the main studied features, discarding those that are too short or not very intense. The frequency of westerly events, which predominate especially in the winter months, is increasing significantly, with about 10 more events per year by 2099, while the frequency of easterly events, more frequent in spring, is expected to decrease for both considered sites.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8814","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0