International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Future Precipitation Change in West Africa Using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Models Based on Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms","authors":"Emmanuel C. Dioha,&nbsp;Eun-Sung Chung,&nbsp;Brian Odhiambo Ayugi,&nbsp;Hassen Babaousmail","doi":"10.1002/joc.8930","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8930","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigated future precipitation changes over West Africa (WA) using the latest art of climate models sourced from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 and based on five machine learning (ML) algorithms. Changes in precipitation are important for policy makers and researchers to better understand the effects and impacts of climate change. Precipitation variations in the future were evaluated under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, with 2040–2070 being short term and 2070–2100 being long term, using a 30-year baseline period. The results of the statistical analysis of the five machine learning algorithms showed that the gradient boosting regressor algorithm, which was trained and validated using the NEX-GDDP models' historical precipitation data set, was superior to the other four ML algorithms in simulating the observed precipitation during the validation period. Further, the results demonstrated that the SVR algorithm was the least performing among its pairs. With an annual precipitation range of 10% to nearly 25%, the projected precipitation trended upward under SSP5-8.5. This shows that there will be a significant increase in precipitation over WA in the future. This precipitation increase was observed by the projection done by the choosing ML algorithm. The increase is observed both in the mid term and long term of both scenarios. Our findings in this study are strongly recommended to policy makers in the region and researchers interested in studying the WA climate system.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145100944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Climate Extremes Indices Over Global Drylands Under Real World Warming Beyond 1.5°C: Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends","authors":"Xinyu Ma,&nbsp;Hua Zhang,&nbsp;Shuyun Zhao,&nbsp;Ke Xu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Since July 2023, the monthly global mean surface temperature (GMST) has consistently surpassed a 1.5°C rise compared to pre-industrial levels. At this critical period, where real world warming exceeds 1.5°C, it is urgent to assess extreme climate signals in climate-sensitive regions to understand the impacts of global warming. This study aims to explore the spatial distributions and temporal trends of 17 extreme temperature and precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) from 1985 to 2023 for global drylands, utilising ERA5 daily reanalysis data. It is found that all temperature indices demonstrate significant warming trends across most drylands. In 2023, the annual maxima/minima of daily maximum/minimum temperatures (TXx/TNn) increase above 3°C in the drylands of North America, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula compared to the baseline period (1985–2014). These drylands experience notable increases in the frequency of warm days/nights (TX/N90p) and summer days (SU), along with a lengthening of warm spell duration (WSDI), as well as decreases in the frequency of cool days/nights (TX/N10p) and frost days (FD). On dryland average, all high (low) extreme temperature indices in 2023 surpass (fall below) their corresponding 1985–2014 averages. Three-quarters of dryland-averaged extreme temperature indices (TXx, FD, SU, TX/N90p, TX/N10p and WSDI) in 2023 all break their records since 1985. Notably, five indices, including WSDI, TX/N90p and TX/N10p, emerge as the most sensitive to the high GMST. The temporal trends of extreme precipitation indices are less significant and weaker in magnitude than those of extreme temperature indices. When averaged across drylands, three extreme precipitation intensity indices in 2023 are located within one standard deviation range of their averages during the reference period. Two duration-based extreme precipitation and drought indices suggest an exceptionally extended and enhanced dry situation over drylands in 2023. Meanwhile, most drylands reveal considerable spatial variability in 2023 compared to 1985–2014.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Peak Rainfall Seasonality and Its Changes Influenced by Monsoons in India","authors":"Chingka Kalai,&nbsp;N. K. Goel","doi":"10.1002/joc.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Seasonality of peak rainfall finds its application in several water resource activities such as deciding the timing of agriculture, regulation of water control structure, predicting the timing of floods; and understanding the lag between rainfall and floods. In a country like India, rainfall (which is the primary source of water) is influenced by different monsoon patterns, causing a disparity in its seasonality, thus, understanding the timing of the peak rainfall and its changes becomes crucial for water resources management. Here, the circular statistical approach is employed to understand the characteristics of peak rainfall (PRF) seasonality in India. It is observed that the western coast and central parts are influenced by the southwest monsoon (June–September) yielding strong seasonality. While, dominance of the northeast monsoon (October–December) is observed along the eastern coast with moderate to strong seasonality moving from north to south. The region lying between the west and the east coast is influenced by both southwest and northeast monsoons yielding bimodal seasonality of PRF. Also, northeast India is found to be influenced by both monsoon patterns. A weak seasonality of PRF is observed in the northern parts that are influenced by several factors like southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon, and snowfall (December–April). Three existing tests along with the proposed modified versions of Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests are applied to detect changes in the seasonality of PRF. Grids identified with changes at 5% and 10% significance levels considering these tests showed significant differences in mean date and resultant length, and gradual shift in the dates of PRF. The analysis demonstrates the necessity of distinct water resource planning for different Indian regions. Also, changes in the timings of PRF implicate the effect of climate change, which demonstrates the need for a revision in water resources planning and management.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatological Characteristics of the Atmospheric Water Cycle in the Huaihe River Basin and Its Relationship With Summer Precipitation Anomalies","authors":"Yue Chen,&nbsp;Chunfeng Duan,&nbsp;Yanyu Lu,&nbsp;Xianke Yang,&nbsp;Bo Hu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Huaihe River Basin (HRB) is situated in a transitional climate zone between northern and southern China, where droughts and floods have significantly impacted socioeconomic development. In this study, we employed a two-dimensional bulk model to examine atmospheric water cycle processes and summer precipitation in the HRB. The region's precipitation primarily originates from advected moisture, mainly entering through southern and western boundaries. Although summer precipitation from advected moisture substantially exceeds that in winter, the precipitation recycling ratio is lower in summer (5.46%) than in winter (6.11%). Summer precipitation in the HRB shows a negative correlation with the precipitation recycling ratio, and its interannual variability is predominantly controlled by precipitation from advected moisture. Differences in water cycle processes between the years of summer drought and flood demonstrate that precipitation variations are largely driven by changes in the advected moisture. Composite analysis further reveals that precipitation in the HRB is influenced by anomalous moisture transport in the Indo-Northwest Pacific. During drought and flood years, the HRB is affected by the cyclonic and anticyclonic moisture transport anomalies, respectively, and both moisture transport patterns are fundamentally controlled by large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. This investigation of the atmospheric water cycle of HRB provides crucial insights for understanding the regional drought-flood disaster mechanisms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is There a Precipitation Decline in the Mediterranean Region? An Assessment Based on the Scientific Literatured","authors":"José Carlos González-Hidalgo,&nbsp;Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano","doi":"10.1002/joc.8918","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8918","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We have compiled studies published since 1980 on annual precipitation trends in the Mediterranean region. The total number of publications reviewed amounts to 337 papers, sourced from various references, focusing exclusively on studies that have analysed observational series, both from meteorological stations and gridded databases. The goal is to provide a comprehensive overview of the available research and results regarding annual precipitation trends, rather than criticising the quality of the data, methods used, or interpretations made. In this context, we present a compilation of papers in which we select original excerpts from the abstract, main text, or conclusions related to annual precipitation trends, summarising each manuscript. We do not focus on seasonal or monthly trends in detail; however, to offer a broader understanding of the extreme spatial and temporal variability of total annual precipitation, we have included in the Supporting Information file a compendium of papers classified by trends at the monthly and seasonal scales. No generalised significant trends are identified across the entire basin. When a significant signal is found, it greatly depends on the length of the period, the specific selected period, and the region. Finally, we discuss some key unresolved issues that need to be addressed to improve future research.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8918","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Links Between Teleconnection Patterns and Mean Precipitation in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula From 1903 to 2023","authors":"Isaac Kwesi Nooni,&nbsp;Faustin Katchele Ogou,&nbsp;Abdoul Aziz Saidou Chaibou,&nbsp;Nana Agyemang Prempeh,&nbsp;Thomas Atta-Darkwa,&nbsp;Khant Hmu Paing,&nbsp;Samuel Koranteng Fianko,&nbsp;Zhongfang Jin,&nbsp;Xiaoyong Yu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70001","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Changes in the seasonality and magnitude of precipitation are complex. Under global warming, this change can pose significant threats to regional water and food security. Therefore, to effectively propose any mitigation strategies, it is necessary to conduct a long-term study of changes in precipitation and associated atmospheric circulation patterns. For this purpose, the climate research unit (CRU) precipitation data set was used to investigate the trends and changes over Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from 1903 to 2023. The Mann–Kendall test analysis was used to identify the changes in precipitation trends and their significance. The Pearson correlation and Granger causality of precipitation and associated eight (8) teleconnection drivers that are shown to exhibit decadal variability such as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) were also investigated. The results show precipitation is highly heterogeneous, with patterns shaped by distinct spatial gradients and regional contrasts. West and Central Africa (North and Southern Africa) exhibited the highest (lowest) precipitation amounts. Precipitation anomalies showed pronounced decadal-scale variability, which is characterised by wet periods and prolonged dry spells across Africa, highlighting the hydroclimatic regimes. The standardised precipitation anomalies indicate that the wettest conditions occurred in the periods 1903–1912, 1925–1939, 1951–1970 and 2000—2022, while the driest conditions occurred in the periods 1913–1924, 1940–1950, 1971–1985 and 1986–1999. The area average of precipitation showed various tendencies with the season at each climate zone. All teleconnection indices exhibited weak to strong correlations (<i>r</i> = 0.30–0.80) of African precipitation, with IOD, PDO and AMO standing out for their strong correlations (<i>r</i> ≥ 0.50) and significant Granger causality across all lags, confirming their prolonged influence while AMM and SCA exhibited mild to strong correlations with causality limited to few lags, indicating a delayed influence. In contrast, for the ENSO, while mildly correlated (<i>r</i> ≈ 0.42), it showed no causal effect, suggesting its influence may be indirect. Furthermore, precipitation variability has strong teleconnections to global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, specifically variations in the Atlantic (tropics and north) and Pacific (north and eastern) SST. This study contributes to precipitation dynamics in Africa and improves our understanding of precipitation–teleconnection relationships in a changing climate.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145102254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Circulation Aspects Associated With Heatwave Events Over Iraq","authors":"Hasanain AL-Shamarti,&nbsp;Philip Rupp,&nbsp;Thomas Birner","doi":"10.1002/joc.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwaves are responsible for increased mortality, heightened energy demands, economic challenges and other societal impacts. Whilst heatwave events are a global concern, Middle Eastern heatwaves have received relatively little attention. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of summertime heatwave events over Southern Iraq during 1980–2022 based on ERA5 re-analysis data. We show that heatwaves typically exhibit a gradual intensification over the week preceding the central day, followed by a more rapid decrease in strength. On the central day, the warming tends to extend from the Arabian Peninsula northward across Iraq and into southwestern Russia. We find these heatwaves to be generally associated with a pronounced weakening of the prevailing north-westerly low-level jet (the so-called Shamal winds), i.e., a strong reduction of the cooling effect of these winds. These Shamal winds result from the climatologically existing low-level pressure gradient over the northern Arabian Peninsula, consisting of a thermal low over the Zagros mountains and a high over the Eastern Mediterranean. It is the weakening of this pressure gradient that ultimately results in the heatwave events. We find that for the majority of heatwave events, this weakening results from a quasi-stationary anticyclonic high to the northeast of Iraq, embedded in a Rossby wave train propagating along the North Atlantic jet and then further along the North African–Asian jet. The circulation associated with the high-pressure system further appears to cause downslope (Foehn-like) winds on the leeward side of the Zagros Mountains that create additional heating. A subset of the heatwave events is not preceded by Rossby wave activity and instead seems to be associated with alternative mechanisms that weaken the low-level pressure gradient. We speculate that the interaction of the Sudanese low-pressure system with the Red Sea Trough, which could be modulated by the position of the inter-tropical convergence zone, may be contributing to the weakening of the low-level pressure gradient and thereby the occurrence of heatwaves.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Climate Change on Consecutive Dry Days in Taiwan","authors":"Amba Shalishe Shanka,&nbsp;Yi-Ying Chen,&nbsp;Chao-An Chen,&nbsp;Yuei-An Liou","doi":"10.1002/joc.70008","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources in Taiwan, particularly impacting agricultural areas. This study investigates the influence of climate change on the occurrence of consecutive dry days (CDD) using historical data (1960–2014) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). Our analysis of historical trends reveals a strong spatial dependence of variation in seasonal CDD, with increasing trends (0.5–1.5 days per decade) in southern and central Taiwan during autumn, in contrast to decreasing trends (−0.5 days per decade) in southern Taiwan during winter. Projections suggest that under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), prolonged CDD will occur across most of Taiwan during the dry seasons (spring, autumn, winter) by the late 21st century. An SSP5-8.5 scenario could lead to a further increase of 1.2 days per decade. This projected increase in seasonal CDD is linked to anticipated changes in the East Asian monsoon system, including seasonal precipitation patterns and atmospheric circulation. In contrast, projected low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) suggest a return towards baseline spring CDD levels, and the potential for persistence of the spring rainband over Taiwan. Furthermore, correlation analysis demonstrates a consistent link between atmospheric oscillations (i.e., AMO, PDO and ENSO) and prolonged spring CDD in specific regions in Taiwan. These findings suggest that monitoring climate indices informs spring drought mitigation strategies in Taiwan.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145102230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influences of Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Thunderstorm Events in Indonesia","authors":"Novvria Sagita,&nbsp;Tetsuya Takemi","doi":"10.1002/joc.8931","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8931","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on thunderstorm variability is critical for improving the accuracy of thunderstorm predictions in Indonesia. This study examines thunderstorm variability using nine combination modes of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) and IOD (positive/negative) derived from the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) between 1993 and 2022. This study used monthly gridded flash rate density (FRD) data from 1995 to 2015, and thunderstorm days derived from 3-hourly surface weather reports from the 65 Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) stations from 1993 to 2022. Previous studies generally show that El Niño tends to increase thunderstorm activity in Indonesia, while La Niña tends to reduce it; however, the precise impacts of their interactions with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remain poorly understood. This study provides new insights into how combined ENSO–IOD phases drive distinct and regionally varied thunderstorm patterns across the Indonesian archipelago. We demonstrate that La Niña significantly reduces thunderstorm activity when specifically paired with a positive IOD phase, due to weakened moisture transport, cooler surface temperatures, reduced Convective Availability Potential Energy (CAPE) and diminished moisture convergence. Conversely, La Niña combined with neutral or negative IOD phases enhances thunderstorm activity in central and eastern Indonesia through increased moisture availability, surface heating and atmospheric instability. El Niño typically intensifies thunderstorms in western Indonesia, especially under neutral or negative IOD conditions, driven by increased surface air temperatures and enhanced CAPE; however, El Niño combined with a positive IOD notably suppresses convection nationwide due to decreased surface air temperature, moisture divergence and reduced CAPE.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145102214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupling Relationship of Extreme Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Flood Events in the Yangtze River Basin Under the Event Coincidence Framework","authors":"Jingxia Song,&nbsp;Peng Yang,&nbsp;Jun Xia,&nbsp;Heqing Huang,&nbsp;Kaiya Sun,&nbsp;Yanchao Zhu,&nbsp;Xiaorui Shi,&nbsp;Xixi Lu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70007","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the context of global environmental change, the frequency of extreme events is increasing, accompanied by a continuous increase in flood risk. Despite the established close interconnections among soil moisture, precipitation, and floods under climate change, the lack of systematic studies on their spatiotemporal variations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) hinders a comprehensive understanding of flood formation mechanisms and impedes effective emergency management efforts. Therefore, in this study, we quantified the soil moisture-precipitation (SM-P) correlation in the YRB from 1961 to 2022 under climate change by employing precursor coincidence, and examined both the predictive role of SM-P coincidence in forecasting floods and the influence of floods on SM-P coincidence through Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA). The results indicated that (1) there was a significant seasonal SM-P coincidence in the YRB, with the strongest SM-P coincidence occurring in summer when the precursor coincidence rate was &gt; 0.50. (2) The predictive role of SM-P coincidence on floods was the highest in summer (&gt; 0.30), whereas the impact of floods on SM-P coincidence was most significant during both summer and fall, with most regions showing conditional trigger coincidence rates &gt; 0.60. (3) The interactions between SM-P and floods were strengthened (the coincidence increased by approximately 100%) before and after mutation. Over a longer temporal tolerance window (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∆</mo>\u0000 <mi>T</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </semantics></math> = 7), SM-P coincidence was more pronounced, whereas the coupling between SM-P and floods was more significant in a shorter conditional temporal tolerance window (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∆</mo>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>T</mi>\u0000 <mtext>cond</mtext>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </semantics></math> = 0), highlighting both an enhanced effect and significant spatial heterogeneity. Our findings offer a scientific basis for understanding and predicting floods, as well as for managing and mitigating flood risks in the flood-prone YRB.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145102215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}