International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Detection of the Relationship Between the Inverse Variations of Sea Ice in the Okhotsk–Bering Sea During Spring and the 11-Year Solar Cycle","authors":"Shuting Luo,&nbsp;Liang Zhao,&nbsp;Xinyong Shen,&nbsp;Jingsong Wang,&nbsp;Ji Wang,&nbsp;Weiguo Zong","doi":"10.1002/joc.8766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8766","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The 11-year solar cycle is a stable external forcing factor for the Earth system. However, its influence on decadal climate variability, including sea ice, remains uncertain. This study statistically analyses spring sea ice concentration (SIC) and annual sunspot numbers (SSNs) from 1960 to 2021, revealing a significant inverse correlation between the 11-year solar activity cycle and spring sea ice variability in the Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea. During solar maximum years, sea ice increases in the Okhotsk Sea while decreasing in the eastern Bering Sea. Further analysis shows that the spring sea ice concentration difference (SICD) index correlates closely with the preceding winter Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that solar activity may influence east–west sea ice variability in the North Pacific during spring through its impact on the winter PMM. Atmospheric circulation and numerical simulation results indicate that during high-solar-activity years in winter, changes in stratospheric ozone concentration lead to variations in stratospheric temperatures. This strengthens zonal westerlies in the subtropical stratosphere and troposphere. The propagation of planetary waves from the stratosphere to the mid- and high-latitude troposphere converges over the Bering Sea, creating an easterly anomaly. This convergence stimulates a high pressure and a low pressure to its south, forming a pattern resembling the PMM in the North Pacific during winter. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies linked to the winter PMM persist into spring, influencing sea ice at high latitudes in the North Pacific and causing the observed inverse sea ice changes in the Okhotsk and Bering Seas. This study highlights the significant modulating effect of solar activity on sea ice variability, offering insights for understanding Arctic climate change and predicting sea ice changes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compound Climate Extremes Under the Future Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Chattogram City, Bangladesh","authors":"Lia Pervin,&nbsp;Md. Sabbir Mostafa Khan,&nbsp;Md. Saiful Islam,&nbsp;Nasreen Jahan","doi":"10.1002/joc.8772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8772","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Waterlogging during the monsoon and water shortness during the pre-monsoon are increasingly affecting the socio-economic condition of Chattogram City. It is suspected that, climate change will lead frequent occurrence of compound climate extremes in future, which may result in greater destructions compared to those caused by individual extremes alone. Hence, it is of particular interest to predict the future climate more precisely. In this study our effort was to improve the understanding the effects of climate change on future compound climate extremes, the trends, variabilities and seasonal patterns. Here, we have evaluated CMIP5 and CMIP6 models from the high resolution bias corrected CORDEX data, and the best performing data sets (CanESM2, CSIRO and GFDL) were selected for the future climate change analysis. Using both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2021–2060, and 2061–2099 period, significant upward trends were projected for the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. However, rainfall pattern showed more complex criteria for the future. The current study revealed that the warm and cold spell, as well as the wet and dry spell characteristics will be altered in the future. The joint analysis of future temperature and rainfall anomalies using copulas revealed two folds effects of climate change on the local hydrology. Projected decrease of rainfall while increase of temperature during the pre-monsoon season will potentially cause water scarcity. On the other hand, increase of extreme rainfall during the monsoon will complicate the waterlogging problems in Chattogram region. In this study, we have identified the time and the extent of combined temperature and rainfall anomalies, that can amplify the adverse impact on the hydro-climatology of Chattogram City. The insights gained from this study are crucial for effectively addressing and managing the complex future hydroclimatic challenges in this region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change in Sergipe, Northeast Brazil: Hydrological Trends in Recent Decades","authors":"Thiers Pereira de Souza,&nbsp;Izaias Rodrigues de Souza Neto,&nbsp;Ronaldo Guilherme Santos Lima,&nbsp;Ludmilson Abritta Mendes","doi":"10.1002/joc.8777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8777","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Analysing spatial and temporal variability in climate is not just an academic exercise; it is also crucial for identifying hydrological trends, assessing climate change, and understanding the environmental vulnerability of a region. These analyses also help in projecting future water availability and susceptibility to desertification. The Northeast of Brazil (NEB), characterised by prolonged droughts and intense rainfall events, could greatly benefit from such research. In Sergipe, the smallest state in NEB, some studies have revealed trends indicating a decrease in annual rainfall and increasing extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures, accompanied by signs of climate change in arid zones. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the temporal variability of precipitation (<i>P</i>), evapotranspiration (ETo), and the aridity index (AI) in Sergipe's watersheds, as well as to assess changes in their spatial distribution across the territory. The results showed that, over the past six decades, Sergipe did not exhibit statistically significant tendencies in the <i>P</i> variables: total annual precipitation, total precipitation in the wettest quarter (WQT), and total precipitation in the driest quarter (DQT). However, spatial analysis revealed changes in the dynamics of these variables. Five watersheds presented a statistically significant increase in ETo annually and during the DQT. Spatially, an expansion of ETo occurred in areas highly susceptible to desertification, particularly in the São Francisco watershed and at the headwaters of the Piauí and Real rivers. These findings suggest a trend of decreasing water availability in the region, emphasising the need for immediate policy intervention to mitigate the risks and damage caused by prolonged droughts.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of Surface Chlorophyll and the Asymmetric Response of the High Productive Zone in the Peruvian Sea: Effects of El Niño and La Niña","authors":"Dante Espinoza-Morriberón,&nbsp;Rodrigo Mogollón,&nbsp;Oswaldo Velasquez,&nbsp;Guisela Yabar,&nbsp;Manuel Villena,&nbsp;Jorge Tam","doi":"10.1002/joc.8764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8764","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study analyzes over 26 years of satellite data to explore the seasonal and interannual variability of surface chlorophyll-a from September 1997 to March 2024, focusing on the impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We investigate how these phases affect the High Productivity Zone (HPZ) during two seasonal periods: The Warm Season (December to April) and the Cold Season (June to September). From an ENSO-neutral perspective, the HPZ is more extensive and exhibits higher chlorophyll concentrations during the Warm Season. Conversely, in the Cold Season, low chlorophyll concentrations are found and the area of the HPZ is reduced by 88,000 km². Under El Niño conditions, chlorophyll-a concentrations decrease consistently along the near-offshore region, but a counter-intuitive increase is observed within the 25 km from shore. La Niña phase enhances chlorophyll in the near-offshore region while reducing it in the very nearshore waters. This study further highlights the asymmetric response of various physical drivers (such as upwelling strength and light) to different ENSO phases. This finding underscores the intricate interplay between ENSO and marine productivity, where the response can vary seasonally. These findings underscore a spatially complex response of the Peruvian coastal productivity to ENSO phases. Understanding these dynamics is vital for predicting future shifts in coastal productivity and for developing adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on marine resources.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterising Local Flood-Inducing Heavy Rainfall Through Daily Weather Types and Large-Scale Climatic Patterns: Aotearoa New Zealand Study Case","authors":"Andrea Pozo,&nbsp;Matthew Wilson,&nbsp;Marwan Katurji,&nbsp;Laura Cagigal,&nbsp;Fernando J. Méndez,&nbsp;Emily Lane","doi":"10.1002/joc.8762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8762","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flooding is the most frequent natural hazard in Aotearoa New Zealand and the second most costly after earthquakes. It will change in frequency and intensity, becoming more extreme as climate change impacts are realised. The main inundation driver is heavy rainfall. In this study, flood-inducing heavy rainfall is characterised locally by applying synoptic climatological techniques, using the study case of Aotearoa New Zealand. Extending on previous work in the field, a new set of 49 daily weather types (DWTs) is proposed for New Zealand, based on mean sea level pressure (MLSP) and 500 hPa geopotential height (500GH) (predictor variables). The role of the DWTs, the large-scale climatic patterns (LSCPs) known to influence rainfall variability, and the wind conditions (as an additional explanatory variable since they play an essential role in the development of these events) as heavy rainfall and flooding (predictand variables) drivers is investigated using the Wairewa catchment (Little River, Canterbury) as the study site. Heavy rainfall is represented through its temporal and spatial features, based on two rainfall datasets (a rain gauge and a gridded product obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model). Useful relationships are found between the predictor and the predictand variables. Also, the predictor variables' temporal variability (interannual and intra-annual variability, seasonality) plays a key role, translating to the temporal variability of heavy rainfall and flooding. The proposed synoptic climatological approach provides qualitative and quantitative value, displaying the range of weather and climatic configurations leading to different types of storms and flooding and helping in their identification and understanding.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8762","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Precipitation Structure and Convective Intensity Over South-East South Asia During Active and Break Spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon Using TRMM, GPM, Megha-Tropiques Satellites and Reanalysis Data","authors":"Shailendra Kumar","doi":"10.1002/joc.8758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8758","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this study, we investigated the precipitation structure (PS) and convective intensity (CI) of precipitation features (PFs) using the multiple sensors onboard on TRMM and GPM for active and break spells (ACT and BRK-Ss) during Indian summer monsoon seasons (1999-2021). Microwave-based observations showed that during ACT-Ss, a higher frequency of PFs is observed over the Himalayan Foothills and northern western Ghats (WGs). Eastern Himalaya Foothills (EHFs), southern India, the Indian Equatorial Ocean, and the Arabian Sea (AS) have a higher frequency of PFs during BRK-Ss. The major differences in PS during ACT and BRK-Ss are observed over WGs and southern-western Himalayan Foothills (S-WHFs). Infrared-based measurements showed that the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and S-WHFs have the deepest Cumulonimbus clouds (minimum brightness temperature) during both ACT and BRK-Ss, but the numbers over BOB are twice as high compared with S-WHFs. S-WHFs have the strongest CI (40 dBZ radar reflectivity has the highest altitude) and precipitation tops (20 dBZ radar reflectivity has the highest altitude) during ACT-Ss. WGs and the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) consist of intense and larger PFs during the BRK-Ss. PFs with the highest horizontal extension, and, which are contributing to higher surface rainfall observed over north-central India and BOB during ACT Ss, but during BRK-Ss, they shifted to EHFs and the Burma-Myanmar coast. Lightning activity is higher at S-WHFs and EHFs during ACT-Ss but shifted at the eastern longitudes of EHFs and southern India during BRK-Ss. Relative humidity (RH) profiles are used to investigate the moist and dry atmospheric conditions during ACT and BRK-Ss. Megha-Tropiques-based sounders showed a higher fraction of RH vertical profiles above mid-troposphere (above 500 hPa) over BOB and S-WHFs during ACT-Ss. WGs and IGP have a higher fraction of RH vertical profiles above the mid-troposphere during BRK-Ss. The balance between RH and vertical velocity is critical in deciding the PS and CI over the selected areas during ACT and BRK-Ss. An updraft with higher RH is observed over BOB, IGP, Central-India, and S-WHF during ACT-Ss. The opposite characteristics are observed over WGs, and a higher RH with a higher updraft is observed during BRK-Ss. The RH-vertical velocity joint histogram shows a broad spectrum width during ACT-Ss compared with BRK-Ss. It shows that even the lower RH can be lifted at higher altitudes due to updraft during the ACT-Ss compared with BRK-Ss. A separate analysis of TRMM and GPM shows that in the last decade, there has been an increase in the deep convective systems during the BRK-Ss, especially over the WGs and Southern India, the Tropical Ocean, and must be investigated in the future.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Leading Circulation Patterns of Meiyu Onset in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley and Its Relationship With the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies","authors":"Haoran Yin,&nbsp;Suxiang Yao,&nbsp;Tianle Sun","doi":"10.1002/joc.8769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8769","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Meiyu rainfall anomaly is closely associated with the early or late onset of Meiyu, and accurately predicting its onset is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. This study examines the diverse circulation patterns governing the Meiyu onset in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley and elucidates its underlying mechanism through statistical diagnosis and numerical simulation. The findings indicate that over the recent 31 years, three distinct circulation patterns of the Meiyu onset (referred to as MO-I, MO-II and MO-III) with different blocking situations in mid-high latitude are observed. The Rossby wave trains connect the weather systems in the mid-high latitude and subtropical regions, leading to the coevolution of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), the South Asian High (SAH), the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet (EASWJ) and the Ural blocking pattern. Furtherly, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic prior to the Meiyu onset can stimulate the key Rossby wave trains that pass through the Ural Mountains and connect with the East Asian subtropical zone. In MO-I, a dipole SST pattern characterised by positive anomalies in southeast Greenland and negative anomalies in the mid-latitude West Atlantic induces negative geopotential anomalies over the Ural Mountains. Concurrently, the WPSH and the SAH exhibit weakened intensities compared to their climatological states, resulting in a delayed onset date relative to the other two types. Conversely, SST anomalies of MO-III exhibit an opposite pattern to MO-I, and the concurrent intensified Ural Blocking High, WPSH and SAH facilitate the earliest Meiyu onset. For MO-II, an antiphase distribution of SST anomalies in the mid-latitude West Atlantic and southern Iceland stimulates two wave trains along the polar front jet and the EASWJ, producing a circulation similar to the climatological state of the Meiyu onset. This research can serve as a foundation for Meiyu prediction and monitoring.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interplay Among Recent Trends in Climate Extremes, Vegetation Phenology, and Crop Production in the Southern Mediterranean Region","authors":"Behnam Mirgol,&nbsp;Bastien Dieppois,&nbsp;Jessica Northey,&nbsp;Lionel Jarlan,&nbsp;Saïd Khabba,&nbsp;Michel Le Page,&nbsp;Jonathan Eden,&nbsp;Job Ekolu,&nbsp;Ikram El Hazdour,&nbsp;Gil Mahe","doi":"10.1002/joc.8768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8768","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The southern Mediterranean region is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change globally. However, in this region, there is a need to further understand the complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and crops to fully assess the combined impacts of extreme climate events on the agricultural sector. Using daily Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we evaluated trends across 15 vegetation phenology indicators between 1982 and 2019 and analysed their links to land-use land-cover changes. We found significant increases in the maximum value of NDVI (MaxV), length of growing seasons (LengthGS), and duration from crop emergence to anthesis (BMaxT), particularly within croplands. These changes positively correlated with regional crop production, especially in coastal and interior plains where croplands and forests are expanding. Conversely, southern areas bordering the Sahara showed declining MaxV and an expansion of sparsely vegetated areas. We then conducted a comprehensive seasonal trend analysis of climatic stresses and discussed how they align with recent trends in key phenological indicators. Coastal and interior plains experienced wetter conditions throughout the year, ensuring sufficient water during the growing season. Meanwhile, areas bordering the Sahara had wetter autumns and winters but drier springs and summers. Additionally, the region experienced warmer conditions from spring to autumn, with fewer cold wave events. Analysing the frequency and duration of compound extreme events, we observed a trend toward more light to moderate dry/hot days in spring and autumn and light to extreme wet/hot days from summer to autumn. These conditions are significantly correlated with increased MaxV, improved crop productivity, and extended LengthGS and BMaxT. These findings may serve as early indicators of how future climate changes could impact crop production, highlighting regional risks and opportunities to guide informed decision-making and development of adaptive strategies in the southern Mediterranean region.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8768","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143750015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “Remote Sensing Data Assimilation to Improve the Seasonal Snow Cover Simulations Over the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China”","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/joc.8771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8771","url":null,"abstract":"<p>\u0000 <span>Deng, G.</span>, <span>Liu, X.</span>, <span>Shen, Q.</span>, <span>Zhang, T.</span>, <span>Chen, Q.</span> and <span>Tang, Z.</span> (<span>2024</span>), <span>Remote Sensing Data Assimilation to Improve the Seasonal Snow Cover Simulations Over the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China</span>. <i>Int J Climatol</i>, <span>44</span>: <span>5621</span>–<span>5640</span>. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8656\u0000 </p><p>In the original article, the utilization of the MuSA v2.0 snow data assimilation tool as a foundational framework was not properly attributed. With permission and authorization from the MuSA development team, we would like to correct this oversight by acknowledging the tool and its original publication: “<i>Alonso- González, E., K. Aalstad, M. W. Baba, J. Revuelto, J. I. López-Moreno, J. Fiddes, R. Essery, and S. Gascoin. 2022. “The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0).” Geoscientific Model Development 15, no. 24: 9127–9155</i>. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022”. We sincerely apologize for the oversight and any inconvenience caused, and express our gratitude to Dr. Esteban Alonso-González and his team for their invaluable support throughout the study.</p><p>We sincerely apologize once again for this oversight and any inconvenience it may have caused.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8771","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deciphering the Relationship Between Moisture Flux and Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Over the West Coast of India","authors":"Tesna Maria,&nbsp;Ajil Kottayil,&nbsp;Prince Xavier,&nbsp;Viju O. John","doi":"10.1002/joc.8756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8756","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The west coast of India has recently been experiencing torrential monsoon rains, a trend that studies indicate is likely to continue under future warming scenarios. This study investigates the link between moisture flux and extreme rainfall over the west coast, using observational and reanalysis datasets for the monsoon seasons (June to September) from 1990 to 2023. The analysis shows that, over the Indian subcontinent, rainfall along the west coast is primarily influenced by large-scale moisture flux from the Arabian Sea. By decomposing the vertically integrated moisture flux into dynamic and thermodynamic components, this study observes that the thermodynamic component of moisture flux exhibits an increasing trend over the southwest coast, while this increasing trend is more prominent for the dynamic component over the northwest coast. Extreme rainfall over the southwest coast is increasing at a rate of 0.23 mm per season, attributed primarily to the increase in the thermodynamic component of moisture flux. It is observed that the rate of sea surface temperature (SST) increase over the Arabian Sea is faster than over the Bay of Bengal, with the average SST over the southeast Arabian Sea exceeding 28°C in recent years. Observations indicate that warming over the southeast Arabian Sea is strongly coupled with moisture accumulation observed over the southwest coast. This study provides strong evidence of a link between moisture transport, extreme rainfall and SST, identifying the southwest coast as a region vulnerable to climate change. Over the northwest coast, the incidence of extreme rainfall is associated with the strengthening of dynamic processes, and the mean monsoon rainfall in this region is increasing in alignment with the rising dynamic component of moisture flux.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}