{"title":"Characteristics of Marine Heat Extreme Evolution in the Northern Indian Ocean","authors":"Hitesh Gupta, Rahul Deogharia, Sourav Sil, Dipanjan Dey","doi":"10.1002/joc.8734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8734","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Marine Heat Extremes (MHEs) are events of anomalously high Sea Surface Temperature (SST) during which SST values exceed a certain pre-defined threshold. These MHEs have profound influence over weather patterns, air-sea interaction and the health of marine ecosystems. This study investigates the long-term evolution of MHEs in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) from 1900 to 2020. We utilised two normalised indices, the Normalised Extreme Frequency Index (NEFI) for frequency and the Normalised Extreme Heat Index (NEHI) for the intensity of MHEs, to objectively compare the MHE attributes across different periods and regions of the NIO. The analysis reveals non-linearly increasing NEFI, with the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) experiencing the fastest rise, followed by the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). MHE intensity shows exponential growth, with its mean-based regimes becoming shorter and shifting more frequently. A new regime has been emerging since the last decade. Analysis of the spatial extent of the MHEs indicates that the WEIO is the fastest-growing region of the NIO. Similar observations were found upon removing sub-decadal variabilities, which include the potential effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, highlighting the long-term warming associated with global warming. The study also links the increasing mean SST to the rising frequency and intensity of MHEs, which is predominantly driven by the net surface heat-flux, which is a combined effect of local and pantropical air-sea interaction. The surface warming is outpacing subsurface warming, thereby strengthening thermal stratification over time, potentially impacting vertical mixing and upwelling, which can, in turn, lead to further surface warming.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yi Qin, Yujing Qin, Chuhan Lu, Yingying Bai, Qian Liu
{"title":"The Influence of North Atlantic Dipole Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Autumn Drought Over Southwest China","authors":"Yi Qin, Yujing Qin, Chuhan Lu, Yingying Bai, Qian Liu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8736","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In recent decades, there has been a notable increase in the frequency and severity of drought events in Southwest China (SWC), which have significantly impacted agriculture and the social economy. Using sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Hadley Centre, daily meteorological drought composite index grid data and ERA5 reanalysis data, we investigate the characteristics of autumn drought in SWC and discuss its possible causes using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The results indicate a distinct ‘Northeast–Southwest’ dipole pattern of autumn drought over SWC in the past decade, which we define as the ‘Chuan-Yu’-type drought. A British–Okhotsk Corridor (BOC) pattern Rossby wave train, presenting over Eurasia, is identified as the key factor influencing the ‘Chuan-Yu’-type drought in SWC during the autumn. The BOC-pattern Rossby wave train not only obstructs water vapour transport channels in SWC but also induces anomalous descending motions in the lower to middle troposphere over the region, leading to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Further investigation reveals that North Atlantic dipole SST anomalies trigger the BOC-pattern Rossby wave train in autumn. The results of the linear baroclinic model sensitivity simulations support the above conclusion. These findings will make valuable contributions to autumn drought prevention and mitigation in SWC.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"PDO And AMO Modulated the Interdecadal Change in Relationship of Summer Precipitation Between Western and Eastern Parts of Northern China","authors":"Yuchun Du, Huopo Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8735","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8735","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The summer precipitation over northern China generally presents an obvious dipole pattern, but the relationship between western northern China (WNC) and eastern northern China (ENC) has experienced a significant interdecadal change, with a significant positive correlation for the periods of 1920s–1940s (P1) and 1980s–2000s (P3), while a negative correlation for 1950s–1970s (P2). Further analyses reveal that the atmospheric circulation and water vapour transport anomalies triggered by the negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), coupling with an eastward-propagating Silk Road Pattern-like teleconnection stimulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), can jointly produce the favourable conditions for summer precipitation in ENC but unfavourable for WNC during P2, comparing with P1 and P3. This results in a dipole pattern of summer precipitation over northern China, leading to a negative correlation between precipitation in these two regions. During P1 and P3, precipitation anomalies in northern China mainly exhibit strong regional consistency, with primarily positive anomalies during P1 and negative anomalies during P3. However, the instability of the precipitation relationship during P3 is greater than those of P1 and P2, which may be attributed to the enhanced impact of the interdecadal variation of ENSO at the same period.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143535819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantifying the Evolution of Extreme Drought Under Climate Change and Its Impacts on Vegetation Productivity Over the Hai River Basin of China","authors":"Tingting Yao, Suxia Liu, Shi Hu, Xingguo Mo","doi":"10.1002/joc.8727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8727","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>There has been increasing attention paid to the effects of drought, especially extreme drought, on vegetation productivity under climate change. However, there are still challenges in quantifying the variations and the adverse effect of extreme drought on vegetation productivity at a regional scale within the context of historical climate change. This study quantified changes in the characteristics of extreme droughts and their effects on vegetation productivity in the Hai River Basin (HRB) of China, using factual climate (with climate trends) and counterfactual climate (detrended) data from the ISIMIP3a project. Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Run theory were utilised to determine characteristic factors (drought frequency, duration, severity, intensity and peak) under climate change. By comparing factual and counterfactual forcing simulations, the detected changes in characteristic factors were attributed to climatic trends. The negative effects of extreme droughts on gross primary productivity (GPP) were quantified. Results showed that there were more serious extreme drought events that occurred in HRB from 1901 to 2019 under factual climate than those under counterfactual climate. The difference was exacerbated in the late stages (1980–2019) over most of the basin. A deceleration was found in the rising pattern of GPP over the last four decades, exacerbating the adverse effects of extreme droughts on GPP under climate change. Compared to those during 1982–2000, GPP experienced further losses related to extreme droughts during 2000–2018 at a rate of 2°gC°m<sup>−2</sup>°day<sup>−1</sup>. Furthermore, extreme drought-related GPP losses were most pronounced in summer, indicating that vegetation was more sensitive to extreme droughts during this season. These findings enhance our understanding of historically observed trends of extreme drought and suggest that more strategies should be implemented to protect vegetation from the increasing trends of extreme drought.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of Break and Noise Variance and the Maximum Distance of Climate Stations Allowed in Relative Homogenisation of Annual Temperature Anomalies","authors":"Ralf Lindau","doi":"10.1002/joc.8724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8724","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Relative homogenisation uses the difference time series of neighbouring climate stations in order to reduce the dominating variance of the climate signal. Larger distances between the stations reduce the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) because the noise variance increases while the break variance remains constant. For different continents, we derive the distance where noise and break variance become equal (SNR = 1). This is an estimate for the maximum allowed distance because SNRs below 1 bear the risk that the homogenisation produces nonsense results. Technically, the break variance is derived by extrapolating the autocovariance to zero temporal distance. An analogous treatment of the variance provides an estimate of the sum of break and noise variance, so that the SNR can be concluded. However, the unavoidable usage of anomalies and limited time series shifts and bends the commonly assumed simple functions (decreasing exponential for the covariance and constant for the variance) in a complex manner. The actually occurring functions are theoretically derived and then fitted to observational data. Above that, we show that also in North America, the inhomogeneity levels themselves and not the jumps between them can be described as a random variable. Consequently, no Brownian-motion-type inhomogeneities seem to exist, as it was suggested in earlier studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8724","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Di Li, Ting Zhang, Ge Liu, Jingpeng Liu, Changyan Zhou, Dongmei Qi, Yuhan Feng, Yuwei Zhou
{"title":"Modulation of Preceding Tibetan Plateau Tropospheric Thermal Anomaly on Summer Temperature Anomalies in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valleys","authors":"Di Li, Ting Zhang, Ge Liu, Jingpeng Liu, Changyan Zhou, Dongmei Qi, Yuhan Feng, Yuwei Zhou","doi":"10.1002/joc.8733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8733","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Anomalous warm surface air temperatures (SATs) appeared in eastern China, especially the middle and lower Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys (MLYHRV), in the summer of 2022. Using the 2022 SAT anomaly as a case, this study analyses the reasons for the variation of summer SATs in the MLYHRV and explores the precursory signals for the summer MLYHRV SAT and related mechanisms. The findings indicate that the preceding May mid-upper (500–300 hPa) tropospheric temperature (TT) over the Arabian Sea and India and the western Tibetan Plateau (TP) can reflect the persistence of the TT anomaly over the western TP and its eastward extension to the Japan Sea from May to summer, which causes downstream East Asian circulation (i.e., the South Asian high and western Pacific subtropical high) and related SAT anomalies over the MLYHRV during summer (especially July–August). In addition, the May La Niña SST can reflect the summer La Niña SST pattern and therefore affect the summer MLYHRV SAT by modulating the East Asian circulations. Using TT and SST precursory signals, a statistical prediction model was developed to predict the summer MLYHRV SAT. This model based on the TT and SST signals shows better prediction ability than the model based only on the traditional La Niña SST signal. The May ASI-WTP TT may be regarded as a crucial supplementary precursor for forecasting the summer MLYHRV SAT.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143535864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hugo Nunes Andrade, André Becker Nunes, Mateus Silva Teixeira, Mário Francisco Leal de Quadro, Vilson Dias de Avila, Fabrício Sanguinetti Cruz de Oliveira, Rita de Cássia Marques Alves
{"title":"Composite Analysis of Explosive Cyclones in the Southern Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Hugo Nunes Andrade, André Becker Nunes, Mateus Silva Teixeira, Mário Francisco Leal de Quadro, Vilson Dias de Avila, Fabrício Sanguinetti Cruz de Oliveira, Rita de Cássia Marques Alves","doi":"10.1002/joc.8737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8737","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Composite analysis of the atmospheric mechanisms in South Atlantic explosive cyclones was performed utilising ERA5 reanalysis for the 2010–2020 period. By a manual tracking method, 271 cases were found (127 weak, 104 moderate and 40 intense). The cyclones follow the preferential displacement from northwest to southeast. There is a trend that, as the explosive cyclone's intensity increases, its trajectory becomes less zonal and has a more significant impact in the coastal areas of Southern Brazil and Uruguay. These intensity frequencies were discretized through a compositing technique for studying explosive cyclones. The results revealed that explosive cyclones begin following the classical model from Bjerknes and Solberg, and, at the end of the explosive phase, they tend to become Shapiro–Keyser type, especially in moderate and intense ones. Vertical movements appeared more significantly at the beginning of the explosive stage. It was observed that intense explosive cyclones transition from the equatorial side of the high-level jet to the polar side. In addition, surface latent heat flux may significantly impact the cyclone's development both in the beginning and during the explosive phase, especially in intense systems. A horizontal dipole pattern is seen for surface sensible heat fluxes, as the ocean loses and gains heat in the cold and warm sectors, respectively, at roughly the same amount.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143535863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Urban Heat Load in a Small Mediterranean City in Recent, Extreme and Future Climate Conditions—A Case Study for the City of Dubrovnik","authors":"Marijana Boras, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Matej Žgela","doi":"10.1002/joc.8728","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8728","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article examines the urban heat load (UHL) of Dubrovnik, a small Mediterranean city located in the complex terrain of the eastern Adriatic coast. In the study, the characteristics of the UHL are investigated in three special scenarios that mimic the different climate conditions: the recent climate (1981–2010), the hypothetical extreme climate (consisting of the 10 years with the hottest summers in the period 1961–2021) and the future climate (2041–2070) according to the RCP4.5 scenario. The UHL is quantified in terms of climate indices with fixed thresholds, defined as the annual number of days on which the daily minimum or maximum temperature exceeds certain thresholds. The analysis was carried out using the microscale urban climate model MUKLIMO_3. In addition, the potential benefits of certain measures to reduce UHL were investigated. In relation to the recent climate, the results show an increase in the amplitude of UHL under extreme and future climate conditions, with the UHL being strongest under the projected future climate conditions. In all three scenarios, the UHL is the highest in the built-up parts of the city. However, a strong increase in UHL is obtained in the green parts of the domain indicating a possible reduction in the cooling capacity of green areas under warmer climate conditions. Applied land use/land cover (LULC) changes of the model area, which include changes in the albedo of roofs, the proportion of low vegetation, impervious surfaces and built-up areas, have some influence on the reduction of UHL, but their effect is quite weak and mostly local. The greatest effect on reducing diurnal UHL is achieved by changing albedo, while the most effective reduction in nocturnal UHL is achieved by a combination of changes in albedo, the proportion of low vegetation, impervious surfaces and built-up areas. Considering the relatively weak cooling effect of the LULC modifications and the potential reduction in vegetation efficiency under warmer climate conditions as well as the expected increase in heatwaves, it is likely that Dubrovnik will suffer from extremely high UHL in the future.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohamed Tarek Sobh, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Nabil Amer, Shamsuddin Shahid
{"title":"Simulation and Future Projections of Reference Evapotranspiration in Egypt","authors":"Mohamed Tarek Sobh, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Nabil Amer, Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1002/joc.8730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8730","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>With the intensification of climate change, there is an increasing need to assess its potential impacts on hydrology and water resource systems. The reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>o</sub>) plays a crucial role as an indicator for calculating the hydrological cycle and understanding these effects. The main objective of this study was to analyse the projected changes in simulated ET<sub>o</sub> over Egypt until the end of the 21st century. This analysis was conducted using the global climate models (GCMs) of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework, which incorporates the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The Penman–Monteith equation was applied to calculate ET<sub>o</sub> utilising data from four CMIP6 GCMs for the historical (1970–2014) and two future periods, the near future (2020–2059) and far future (2060–2100). The results revealed an overall increase in ET<sub>o</sub> for all scenarios and periods. The highest increase in annual ET<sub>o</sub> was observed under SSP5-8.5, reaching 14.2% during the far future, while the lowest projected increase was 4.36% for SSP1-2.6 in the near future. In addition, the projected ET<sub>o</sub> demonstrated the greatest increase during winter, while the lowest increase was in summer. Geographically, the increases will be more in the southwest and the least in the southeast for all scenarios and future periods. These findings emphasise the potential consequences that Egypt, a global water stress hotspot, could face if ET<sub>o</sub> rises due to escalating temperatures. It underscores the importance of addressing these challenges to ensure the sustainability of water resources in the face of climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Raquel Machado Machado, Douglas da Silva Lindemann, Luís Felipe Ferreira de Mendonça, Rose Ane Pereira de Freitas, Ítalo Seilhe Reis, Marcelo Felix Alonso
{"title":"Analysis of the Ocean–Atmosphere Interface in the Brazil Current Region","authors":"Raquel Machado Machado, Douglas da Silva Lindemann, Luís Felipe Ferreira de Mendonça, Rose Ane Pereira de Freitas, Ítalo Seilhe Reis, Marcelo Felix Alonso","doi":"10.1002/joc.8721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8721","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Brazil current (BC) is a westerly current that flows south along the Brazilian coast, being part of the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS). Recent studies have indicated a trend towards intensification and a shift to the south of the region where this current predominates. We analysed the seasonality of the relationship between atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) with potential trends and changes in the spatio-temporal pattern of these variables from 1980 to 2020 over the BCs area in the South Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, monthly data on SST, air temperature at 2 m above the surface (T2M), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), zonal wind (U10) and meridional wind (V10), obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, were used. Descriptive statistical analyses, trends using the Mann-Kendall test, correlation matrices and Pettitt's test revealed a significant spatial correlation between the variables, with temporal trends of variation, especially over the BCs area. The meridional (zonal) wind predominantly exhibited a north–south (west–east) direction, supporting the hypothesis that the study region was displaced. Additionally, statistically significant positive trends were observed for SST (0.02°C ∙ dec<sup>−1</sup> in austral autumn, winter and spring and 0.01°C ∙ dec<sup>−1</sup> in austral summer), T2M (0.02°C ∙ dec<sup>−1</sup> in austral winter and spring), MSLP (0.05°C ∙ dec<sup>−1</sup> in austral autumn) and negative for U10 (−0.01°C ∙ dec<sup>−1</sup> in austral spring). Pettitt's test results confirm significant changes in the behaviour of most analysed variables from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. The post-breakpoint periods of the variables consistently showed above-average values compared to the pre-breakpoint periods, supporting positive upward trends consistent with literature findings. In particular, they highlight the notable upward slope in SST in the BC region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143530549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}