International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Scaling of Short-Duration, Summer Rainfall Event Temporal Profiles With Warming Over Great Britain","authors":"Alexandra Seawell,&nbsp;Hayley J. Fowler,&nbsp;Stephen Blenkinsop,&nbsp;Caspar J. M. Hewett,&nbsp;Roberto Villalobos Herrera,&nbsp;Marie Hundhausen,&nbsp;Haider Ali","doi":"10.1002/joc.70421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70421","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The relationship between extreme rainfall and temperature, known as temperature scaling, is widely used to understand changes in rainfall characteristics under a warming climate. While most previous studies have focussed on fixed-duration intensities or event totals, this study examines how different aspects of the rainfall temporal profile respond to temperature. Specifically, we focus on temperature scaling of total event depth, maximum sub-hourly intensity and measures of profile concentration and loading. Using both sub-hourly rain gauge data across Britain and 10-min output from a convection-permitting climate model (CPM) for present and future climates over southern England and Wales, we analyse short-duration, summer rainstorms. Results show that total rainfall depth increases with temperature, with higher quantiles approaching Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling rates of 6–7%°C⁻¹. However, changes are unevenly distributed within the rainfall event temporal structure. Maximum sub-hourly intensities scale more strongly than total event depth, with upper quantiles reaching 7–11%°C⁻¹, indicating pronounced intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes at high temperatures. Accumulation of 50% of the rainfall event volume was found to occur over a shorter fraction of the storm duration and earlier in the storm duration, indicating rainfall events are more concentrated and more front-loaded at higher temperatures, with both scaling at rates of 1–2%°C⁻¹. These results suggest that future summer rainstorms will not only deliver greater overall rainfall in a warming climate, but also produce more intense and earlier bursts of precipitation, heightening flash flood risk. Disregarding these temporal shifts may lead to underestimation of flood hazards and misrepresentation of climate change impacts in hydrological modelling and infrastructure design.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70421","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating Nex-GDDP CMIP6 Models for Extreme Wet and Dry Events Over Indonesia","authors":"Ari Kurniadi,&nbsp; Firmansyah,&nbsp;Trinah Wati,&nbsp;Leni Nazarudin,&nbsp;Noveta Chandra I. Puspita,&nbsp;Apriliana R. Fauziyah,&nbsp;Dyni F. Meisda,&nbsp;Adityo Wicaksono,&nbsp; Kadarsah,&nbsp;Agus Sabana Hadi,&nbsp;A. Fachri Radjab","doi":"10.1002/joc.70437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70437","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study evaluates the capability of 19 downscaled CMIP6 models from NASA's NEX-GDDP dataset in simulating hydroclimatic extremes across Indonesia. Using the high-resolution MSWEP dataset as a reference for the historical period 1981–2014, we assessed three precipitation-based ETCCDI indices: maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1DAY), total precipitation from very wet days (R95PTOT) and consecutive dry days (CDD). The evaluation was performed seasonally (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) using bias, RMSE and spatial correlation metrics. We also explored four ensemble strategies: MEAN, MEDIAN, and skill-based subsets (BST_MEAN, BST_MEDIAN), based on five top-performing models ranked by Taylor Score. Results indicate that NEX-GDDP models tend to underestimate wet extremes (RX1DAY, R95PTOT) and overestimate dry spells (CDD), particularly during monsoonal periods. Seasonal disaggregation reveals that model performance is generally stronger during the dry seasons (JJA, SON), with lower RMSE and higher correlation, while wet seasons (DJF, MAM) show larger discrepancies. Skill-based ensemble strategies marginally improve performance, but no configuration performs optimally year-round. Biases are also spatially heterogeneous, reflecting limitations in representing sub-grid processes such as convection and orographic rainfall. MSWEP shows significant RX1DAY increases in MAM–JJA, while NEX-GDDP trends remain weaker and spatially limited. These findings highlight the importance of season-specific and index-specific evaluation in ensemble construction. For operational climate services in Indonesia, such as early warning systems and risk assessments, reliance on raw model output without further refinement could misinform decision-making. Our results underscore the need for tailored post-processing and regional calibration to enhance the utility of downscaled climate projections in Southeast Asia.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Degradation of Seasonally Frozen Ground in the Three–River Source Region and Its Correlation Impact Within Precipitation–Runoff Process","authors":"Chenchen Ren,&nbsp;Xiangde Xu,&nbsp;Jieru Ma,&nbsp;Bingrong Zhou,&nbsp;Na Dong,&nbsp;Wenyue Cai,&nbsp;Chunzhu Wang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70436","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Seasonally frozen ground (SFG), known as ‘solid groundwater’ in the Three–River Source Region (TRSR), exerts a critical impact on regional water availability and distribution. Under the warming-wetting conditions on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), it is necessary to explore how frozen ground, precipitation and runoff change and interact with each other to understand the natural water cycle characteristics. This study analyses hydrological data from the past 60 years, derived from ground stations and satellite observations. The findings reveal clear SFG changes over the past decades: the annual maximum freezing depth (MFD) decreases with warmer winters and is also influenced by monsoon precipitation. An interdecadal response exists between runoff and SFG across the TRSR. However, this coupling has weakened over time, while the response of runoff to precipitation has enhanced. Quantitative analysis shows that the contribution of SFG to spring–summer runoff declined from 16.2% before 1997 to 5.8% thereafter. These results show that runoff relies increasingly on precipitation. Under climate warming, the associated decline in freezing depth thereby heightens the vulnerability of TRSR water resources to climate variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70436","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New Data-Light Winter–Summer Severity Index (WSSI): Methodological Approach and Application in 15 European Cities","authors":"Hakan Aksu,&nbsp;Gaye Yesim Taflan,&nbsp;Ece Coskunisik,&nbsp;Muhammed Koray Karakose","doi":"10.1002/joc.70427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70427","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The variation of seasonal characteristics driven by climate change introduces emerging risks across various sectors, including energy management, agriculture, public health and urban planning. Traditional methodologies employed to determine seasonal ‘severity’ often suffer from a dual challenge: they either require excessively complex datasets or fail to adequately represent abrupt intra-seasonal temperature fluctuations. This study introduces the Winter–Summer Severity Index (WSSI), a newly developed metric designed to measure seasonal intensity across 15 major European cities while ensuring high accuracy with minimal data input. The WSSI innovatively integrates the widely utilised ‘degree-day’ approach with the ‘Standardized Temperature Index’ (STI). The hybrid framework enables the calculation of seasonal temperature anomalies cumulatively and their subsequent standardization into comparable numerical data. For the analysis, the high-resolution ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset was utilised, spanning 75 years from 1951 to 2025. The analytical process was conducted using daily minimum temperatures for winter and daily maximum temperatures for the summer season severity. One of the most critical findings of this study is the high degree of consistency the index demonstrates with historical data. The WSSI application accurately captured landmark extreme events in European climate history, such as the 2003 Western European heatwave and the 2012 Eastern European cold wave. Index values reached statistically extreme levels during these periods, confirming that the method successfully represents not only general trends but also outlier events. The results indicate a systematic decrease in winter season severity (a warming trend) across Europe. Conversely, summer intensity has increased significantly in nearly all cities considered—except Istanbul—showing a particularly pronounced intensification in Mediterranean cities such as Madrid and Rome. In conclusion, the WSSI distinguishes itself as a reliable decision-support tool for climate change adaptation due to its ability to generate rapid results with limited data and its proven historical consistency. While providing a practical instrument for energy management and agricultural planning, WSSI also serves as a vital data source for tracking the local footprints of teleconnection patterns, validating seasonal forecasts and defining robust climate adaptation strategies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differential Responses and Mechanisms of Radial Growth Between Abies fargesii and Quercus mongolica in the Middle-Eastern Qinling Mountains Under Current Warming-Induced Aridification","authors":"Qiang Li,&nbsp;Zichun Jia,&nbsp;Jiachuan Wang,&nbsp;Yifan Wu,&nbsp;Yang Xu,&nbsp;Lu Wang,&nbsp;Changfeng Sun,&nbsp;Huiming Song,&nbsp;Yanchao Wang,&nbsp;Meng Ren,&nbsp;Qiufang Cai,&nbsp;Yu Liu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70423","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>As warming intensifies drying trends, tree species respond differently, especially across the conifer–broadleaf divide. Yet it remains unclear how these contrasting groups reorganise their relative composition under progressive aridification. Here, we investigated <i>Abies fargesii</i> and <i>Quercus mongolica</i> growing in the middle and eastern section of the Qinling Mountains, a transitional zone between the warm-temperate and subtropical climates, exploring the growth characteristics and tree growth-climate relationships before and after the climatic regime shift. The results indicated a wet-to-dry climate regime shift occurred in 1981 over the Qinling Mountains, causing a change in the tree growth trends as well as primary controlling factors for the tree growth of the two dominant tree species. Although the Basal Area Increment (BAI) of the <i>Abies fargesii</i> showed a continued decline trend in tree growth, BAI of <i>Quercus mongolica</i> represented a steadily increasing trend in tree growth, which implies that <i>Quercus mongolica</i> has stronger adaptability to the warming-induced aridification. For <i>Abies fargesii</i>, the dominant climate controlling factor shifted from temperature to a synergy of water and heat, whilst for <i>Quercus mongolica</i>, it shifted from water–heat coupling to precipitation dominance. In addition, the <i>Abies fargesii</i> chronology showed a significant teleconnection with ENSO events, whereas the <i>Quercus mongolica</i> chronology did not exhibit a similar response. Our findings suggest that <i>Quercus mongolica</i> exhibits greater tolerance to warming and drying conditions than <i>Abies fargesii</i>, providing important guidance for optimising regional forest composition and enhancing ecosystem resilience.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Relation Between Two Types of Frequent Wave Breaking Over Southeastern Siberia and Different Conditions of Unseasonable Midsummer Weather Over Japan","authors":"Kazuto Takemura","doi":"10.1002/joc.70426","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70426","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Possible different impacts of anticyclonic and cyclonic types of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) over southeastern Siberia on the anomalous circulation and associated unseasonable midsummer weather over Japan have not been investigated before. In this study, we have examined anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB and their different effects in July, when Japan experiences a relatively large interannual variability of the surface temperature. Regression analyses against the interannual variabilities of RWB occurrence frequencies show that the frequent anticyclonic reversals in July are accompanied by Rossby-wave-packet propagation along the enhanced waveguide associated with the polar-front jet. The associated negative height and sea-level-pressure anomalies that extend from Japan to the east provide suitable conditions for anomalous northeasterly cold advection in the lower level of the atmosphere and cold summer temperatures over Japan. A dynamically induced anomalous ascent that is linked to the enhanced and southward-deflected subtropical jet is associated with anomalous upward motions to the south-to-southeast of Japan. Enhanced eastward moisture fluxes and increasing precipitable water are also seen over this area. The frequent cyclonic RWB in July is accompanied by Rossby-wave-packet propagation along the enhanced waveguide associated with the subtropical jet in addition to that associated with the polar-front jet. The associated negative height anomalies over northeastern China and the negative sea-level-pressure anomalies from China to Japan lead to anomalously warm advection over western Japan and anomalously cold advection, which is weak and limited, near northern Japan. A dynamically induced anomalous ascent that is linked to the southward meandering of the subtropical jet is associated with anomalous upward motions from eastern China to Japan. Enhanced moisture fluxes and increasing precipitable water are seen over this area. These differences imply that the morphologies of RWB cause the different patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with unseasonable midsummer weather over Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70426","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Two Variants of Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on CMIP6-Based Projections of Extreme Precipitation Over Southern Africa","authors":"Amarech Alebie Addisuu,&nbsp;Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu,&nbsp;Lenyeletse Vincent Basupi","doi":"10.1002/joc.70428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70428","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study evaluates two variants of quantile distribution mapping (QDM) bias-correction techniques applied to CMIP6 model ensemble projections: (1) coefficient of variation conserving (C-QDM) and (2) non-conserving quantile mapping (NC-QDM). Both methods were applied to daily precipitation from 11 CMIP6 models using the CHIRPS dataset as reference. We examined how these approaches influence projections of key extreme precipitation indices under three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the austral summer (DJF) across near (2026–2050), mid (2051–2075), and far (2076–2100) future periods relative to 1990–2014. Both methods consistently project increases in consecutive dry days (CDD) across most of Southern Africa, suggesting heightened drought risk, particularly under SSP5-8.5. In contrast, wet-day persistence shows method-dependent responses: C-QDM generally projects stronger reductions in consecutive wet days (CWD) while NC-QDM indicates declines in wet-day frequency (RR1) with comparatively weaker reductions in CWD. Heavy precipitation and intensity indices are projected to increase substantially under higher-emission scenarios, notably over eastern Southern Africa and Madagascar sub-regions. By the late 21st century, CDD increases by 0.88 days per decade under C-QDM and 1.16 days per decade under NC-QDM, demonstrating stronger amplification of drying under NC-QDM. In contrast, Rx1day increases more strongly under C-QDM (6.44 mm per decade) than under NC-QDM (5.17 mm per decade), while R1mm decreases by 0.38 and 1.30 days per decade under C-QDM and NC-QDM, respectively. The SDII increases by 0.5 and 1.1 mm per decade under C-QDM and NC-QDM, respectively, indicating stronger intensification of precipitation under NC-QDM. C-QDM generally produces more moderate and spatially coherent changes, particularly for persistence-related indices, whereas NC-QDM projects larger increases in both wet and dry extremes relative to the historical baseline. These differences arise from their treatment of distributional variability: C-QDM constrains the mean and coefficient of variation using a method-of-moments formulation, which stabilises variability, whereas NC-QDM relies on direct distribution fitting, allowing greater flexibility and amplification in the upper tail. Overall, the findings demonstrate that while the direction of climate change signals is robust across methods, the magnitude and characteristics of projected extremes are sensitive to both emission pathways and bias-correction choices. The results highlight the importance of using multiple bias-correction approaches to better constrain projections and support climate-resilient water resource management, agricultural planning, and disaster risk reduction in Southern Africa.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme Climate Events in Morocco: Historical Analysis and Future Projections Based on CMIP6 Simulations","authors":"Oualid Hakam,&nbsp;Abdelhakim Amazirh,&nbsp;El Houssaine Bouras,&nbsp;Victor Ongoma,&nbsp;Abdelghani Chehbouni","doi":"10.1002/joc.70433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70433","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming has increased the frequency and severity of extreme climate events, a trend expected to persist throughout the 21st century unless effective mitigation measures are implemented. This study investigates historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) changes in extreme climate events in Morocco. It utilises observed data and bias-corrected simulations from CMIP6 models under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, based on 16 extreme climate indices. Bias correction effectively reduced model discrepancies, thereby improving the reliability of simulated indices. In the historical period, temperature-related indices indicate a strong intensification of warm extremes, including TXx (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature), TN90p (warm nights) and TX90p (warm days). At the same time, cold extremes such as CSDI (cold spell duration index), TN10p (cold nights) and TX10p (cold days) show a clear decline. Precipitation-related indices suggest a shift towards drier conditions, with reduced occurrences of heavy rainfall and longer dry spells (CDDs), particularly in the Atlantic (ATL) and Mediterranean (MED) regions. Future projections indicate continued warming, with more frequent and prolonged heatwaves. Total precipitation (PRCPTOT) is projected to decline, while short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events become more common, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Increase in global mean temperature directly increases the frequency, intensity and duration of temperature extreme events. In contrast, precipitation-related extremes exhibit more heterogeneous and scenario-dependent responses, reflecting the influence of complex and potentially non-linear processes. The southern Atlas and Saharan regions (SOA and SAH) emerge as climate hotspots, facing heightened risks of drought, heatwaves and flash floods. The projected decline in precipitation, combined with increasing rainfall irregularity, is likely to contribute to greater uncertainty and potential reductions in crop yields, thereby increasing the vulnerability of Moroccan agriculture. Overall, findings point to a transition towards a hotter, drier and more variable climate, with significant implications for water resource management and food security in Morocco.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70433","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wildfire Hazard in Poland in a Warming Climate: Past and Future Impact of Extreme Weather","authors":"Iwona Pińskwar,&nbsp;Łukasz Tyburski,&nbsp;Adam Choryński,&nbsp;Anna Dudzińska,&nbsp;Dariusz Graczyk","doi":"10.1002/joc.70439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70439","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The rise in temperature increases the occurrence of various meteorological extremes and contributes to a higher incidence of wildfires. This paper examines the meteorological factors that influence the potential wildfire danger. We analyse fire danger indices derived from meteorological stations with wildfire data for 2007–2023 in Poland and divide them into seven physiographic regions. The paper researches how wildfire conditions in Poland were changed from the past to now and explores how much the fire frequency will increase in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate model projections (CMIP6). Additionally, we characterise the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfires in Poland between 2007 and 2023, including seasonal and regional variability. We also look at how the maximum daily temperature and relative humidity affect the number of wildfires that happen in two chosen regions. Our study provides evidence that conditions influencing wildfire hazard in Poland have changed since the 1970s and may intensify in the near and far future. Authors of the paper indicate that future wildfire risk linked with maximum temperature may rise with the current 99th percentile (32°C) to the future threshold of the 99th percentile by 2.5–5.3-fold over the next 30 years and 10.4–14.5-fold over the far future threshold of the 99th percentile of 2061–2090 depending on the considered climate change scenarios. A proactive and integrated approach to wildfire management is therefore needed to reduce future fire risk in the region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of ERA5 Precipitable Water Vapour Data in China With Radiosonde Data","authors":"Jie Zhao,&nbsp;Weidong Li,&nbsp;Xia Wu,&nbsp;Kaifang Shi,&nbsp;Tiejian Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.70424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70424","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle and is closely linked to global climate change. Owing to its high temporal and spatial resolution and wide availability, ERA5 PWV data have been extensively utilised in climatology, ecology, and weather forecasting. However, influenced by geographic and climatic factors, the accuracy of ERA5 PWV data varies considerably across regions, necessitating thorough evaluation prior to rigorous application. Based on the observed data from 91 radiosonde stations in China for the period 1979–2019, we evaluated the accuracy of ERA5 PWV data across China using a combination of methods. The results indicate that although ERA5 data generally agree with the magnitude and spatial distribution of radiosonde PWV, regional discrepancies remain evident. Specifically, ERA5 tends to underestimate PWV across China, with more pronounced underestimation in the southeastern regions and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test reveals a significant improvement in the agreement between ERA5 and radiosonde data after 2002. Over the study period, the PWV trend increased at a rate of 0.178 mm/a for radiosonde data and 0.095 mm/a for ERA5 data. The growth rate was notably higher across more than 80% of northwest China. We further proposed three sub-regions of China based on five accuracy metrics. The analysis showed that although ERA5 data accuracy improved in most regions after 2002, the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau continued to exhibit significant discrepancies, highlighting the need for further improvement. Our findings underscore the importance of region- and period-specific calibration of ERA5 PWV data and will help to ensure the accuracy and reliability when it's used in climate-related studies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}