International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Tropicalization of the Temperate Zone: Spatiotemporal Variability of Winter Warming and Declining Freeze Days Across the United States","authors":"Vincent M. Brown,&nbsp;Derek T. Thompson,&nbsp;Buren B. DeFee II,&nbsp;Michael J. Osland,&nbsp;Barry D. Keim","doi":"10.1002/joc.70425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70425","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate changes in cool-season and winter daily minimum (T_min) and maximum (T_max) temperatures, and the occurrence of freeze days, from 1952 to 2024 across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Emphasis is placed on the tropical-temperate transition zone (TTTz) in the southeastern CONUS. During winter, ~70% of the land area exhibited T_min warming rates exceeding those of T_max. The countywide coldest T_min became milder across 57% of the CONUS, while the coldest T_max showed little change and even cooled east of the Rocky Mountains in the central CONUS. Across the TTTz, 75% of freeze days occur within a ~25–100-day window, often fewer than 75 days in the southernmost areas. Approximately 80% of counties exhibited significant contractions in freeze-day concentration, with the largest and most spatially consistent changes occurring in the Southeast, primarily driven by later start dates. Roughly 85% of the CONUS experienced a significant decline in freeze days, with the largest relative declines in regions where average winter T_min is above freezing, while parts of the Pacific Northwest showed no significant change. An analysis of freeze day isopleths (30, 45, 60 and 75 days) across 20-year periods showed that the mean latitude of freeze days has migrated poleward substantially. Between 101° W and 79° W in the TTTz, the 30 freeze-day isopleth for the late period (2005–2024) was, on average, 122 km (~1.1° latitude) farther north than in the early period (1952–1971). Generally, the largest latitudinal shifts and percentage losses in freeze days occurred across low-elevation, low-relief regions at lower latitudes (e.g., the Mississippi River Valley), with abrupt shifts occurring near topographic gradients. Regions with sharp elevational gradients (e.g., Balcones Escarpment, Ouachita Mountains and Tennessee Valley) exhibited smaller temporal changes, likely reflecting the barrier-like influence of higher terrain on the poleward retreat of freeze days.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70425","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Probability of Concurrent Droughts in China's Breadbasket","authors":"Jiaxin Tang,&nbsp;Weiguang Wang,&nbsp;Guoshuai Liu,&nbsp;Shifeng Zhu,&nbsp;Haiyang Qian,&nbsp;Jiazhong Zheng","doi":"10.1002/joc.70430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70430","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Drought is one of the most disruptive climate extremes for agriculture, and concurrent droughts across multiple breadbasket regions can seriously threaten food-system stability under climate change. This risk is particularly important in China, a major agricultural producer with diverse crop-growing regions. Here, we assess concurrent drought risk across 14 rice, wheat and maize production regions in China during 1951–2100 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on simulations from 16 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Results show that growing-season SPEI provides a more relevant indicator of drought risk in crop production regions than annual SPEI. All scenarios project increased drought frequency and severity in the late 21st century (2071–2100), with stronger intensification in southern and western China and a shift from moderate to severe drought, particularly in rice production regions. The probability of concurrent moderate and severe droughts among region pairs is low during the historical period (1951–1980) but increases substantially under future scenarios, especially under SSP5-8.5, with the largest increase occurring in rice production regions. The probability of concurrent drought affecting at least half of 14 crop production regions rises from 17.08% to 36.04% for moderate drought and from 4.58% to 24.58% for severe drought under SSP5-8.5. These findings improve understanding of climate change impacts on concurrent agricultural drought risk in China and provide a basis for region-specific adaptation and food security planning.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projection and Uncertainty of Midsummer Precipitation in the Northern China Monsoon Region by CMIP6 Models","authors":"Liu Yang,&nbsp;Junhu Zhao,&nbsp;Yuantao Hu,&nbsp;Guolin Feng","doi":"10.1002/joc.70438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70438","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Based on 30 CMIP6 global climate models and observational data from 2374 meteorological stations in China during 1961–2020, the primary objective of this study is to investigate the sources of uncertainty in model projections from both thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives. The projection of mid-summer precipitation trend is slight increasing in the near-term (2021–2040), maximum in the mid-term (2041–2060) and slowing down in the long-term (2081–2100) over northern China monsoon region (NCMR), and its mean increasing trend is projected to be 3% (5%) under different scenarios in the near-term (mid-term), and slightly decreases to 2% in the long-term. Especially, it is sensitive to temperature change under shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6). Optimal model simulations show that the dynamic term dominates the increase in NCMR midsummer precipitation, while the thermodynamic term contributes negatively, offsetting some of the dynamic-induced rise. Therefore, it is highly likely that the dynamic term dominates the future increase in precipitation over the NCMR and is also the primary factor contributing to discrepancies in results among different models.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Multi-Index Multi-Scale Approach to Analyse Regional Drought Variability","authors":"Mohammad Arab Amiri,&nbsp;Ali Danandeh Mehr,&nbsp;Milan Gocić","doi":"10.1002/joc.70432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70432","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Drought regionalisation remains sensitive to index selection, temporal scale and clustering methodology, especially in hydroclimatically transitional regions. This study introduces a multi-index multi-scale meteorological drought regionalisation framework based on long-term historical precipitation. The new approach starts with calculations of two standardised meteorological drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and China-Z Index (CZI), at 1-, 3- and 12-month time scales. Then, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied for dimensionality reduction, followed by K-means clustering to delineate homogeneous drought regions. To ensure methodological robustness, cluster validation is performed using Variance Ratio Criterion (VRC). The proposed approach was demonstrated using monthly precipitation data from 28 climatological stations (1946–2023) distributed across Serbia. The results indicated the presence of three statistically stable drought regions largely governed by topography and continentality gradients. Mountainous western and southern Serbia exhibit high cross-scale stability (&gt; 80% station persistence), whereas lowland northern regions show moderate sensitivity to index selection. SPI-based regionalisation demonstrates stronger interannual variability representation, while CZI produces smoother regional drought signatures due to distributional assumptions. Crni Vrh and Zlatibor climatological stations in the mountainous regions of southwestern and central Serbia are representative stations with scale-resistant drought characteristics. The most detailed spatial resolution that identified six distinct homogeneous sub-zones is produced by the proposed approach across all time scales. The VRC across all index-scale combinations is used to validate the stability of the identified regions. The proposed stability-enhanced framework improves the reliability of drought regionalisation and provides a transferable methodology for climate transition zones under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Climate Variability of Homogeneous Regions of Rainfall Anomalies in Southeast South America (SESA)","authors":"Tainã Costa Peres,&nbsp;Francisco Eliseu Aquino,&nbsp;Denilson Ribeiro Viana,&nbsp;Éder Leandro Bayer Maier,&nbsp;Pedro Teixeira Valente","doi":"10.1002/joc.70434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70434","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rainfall variability in Southeastern South America (SESA) is influenced by local, regional, and global factors, as well as complex interactions between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This study aims to characterise the monthly variability and cyclicity of the time series for six Homogeneous Regions of Rainfall Anomalies (HRRA) in SESA from 1961 to 2020 and analyse the climatic variability of precipitation in these regions. Monthly rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit were used. The six HRRA are located between 32°–40° S (regions 1–2), 24°–32° S (HRRA-3–4), and 20°–27° S (regions 5–6). Time series for each HRRA were calculated based on the average of its four central points. Boxplots of monthly totals were created, and the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Wavelet Transform (WT) were applied to the anomaly series. Results indicate that HRRA-1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 are influenced by regional circulation, with dry/rainy periods in winter/summer. HRRA-4–6 show climatological features typical of the monsoon, while HRRA-3 exhibits variability without a dominant dry or rainy season. Boxplots reveal greater variability in spring, summer, and fall. SNHT detected structural breaks in 1972, 1976, 2000, 2009, and 2019, corresponding to HRRA-1, 4, 2, 6, 3, and 5, respectively. WT analysis revealed significant influences in seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal cycles across all regions. Seasonal variability predominates in HRRAs-1, 4, and 6, while interannual variability, linked to ENSO, SAM, and PSA, dominates in HRRAs-2, 3, and 5. Interdecadal cycles were observed in HRRAs-1, 2, 3, and 5, suggesting PDO influence.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70434","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inter-Decadal Variations and Causes of Summer Heavy Precipitation in the Water Tower Area of China","authors":"Xiaoli Feng,&nbsp;Xiuping Yao,&nbsp;Qin Guan,&nbsp;Hongyan Shen,&nbsp;Bingrong Zhou,&nbsp;Jiali Ma","doi":"10.1002/joc.70422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70422","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Heavy precipitation events have a greater impact on ecology, economy, and human livelihoods than general precipitation events. Based on observational data from 19 meteorological stations, two gridded daily precipitation datasets, and the ERA5 monthly reanalysis dataset from June to August during 1961–2022, this study investigates the inter-decadal variations of summer heavy precipitation and its underlying mechanisms in the Three-River Source (TRS) region, known as the water tower of China. The results show that over the past 60 years, summer heavy precipitation in the TRS has exhibited an overall increasing trend, with a significantly stronger trend in the eastern TRS (98°–102° E) than in its central and western parts. The interannual variation rate is relatively larger in the first three decades, but summer heavy precipitation in the latter 30 years initially decreases before increasing again. Since the 21st century, a Silk Road-like wave train characterized by positive–negative–positive geopotential height anomalies (anticyclone–cyclone–anticyclone) has dominated the middle and upper troposphere over Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and East Asia. During this period, the western Pacific subtropical high has intensified and extended westward, while the South Asian high has strengthened and extended eastward, creating a synoptic background that favours the interdecadal increase in summer heavy precipitation in the TRS. Since the 21st century, the westerly jet has intensified, shifted northward, and extended eastward, contributing to enhanced upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence over the TRS region located south of the jet core. Additionally, a notable rise in spring sensible heat (SH) around 2003 strengthened the thermal pumping effect over the TRS, which, combined with increased atmospheric instability, provided favourable thermodynamic lifting conditions for heavy precipitation events in the region since the 21st century. In addition, the inter-decadal variation of the regional net water vapour budget follows a similar pattern, showing a transition from less to more around 2002. The strengthened anticyclonic circulation in Northeast Asia has reduced the outflow of water vapour from the eastern boundary of the TRS. Meanwhile, intensified southwesterly water vapour transport and enhanced water vapour convergence have further contributed to the interdecadal increase in both summer heavy precipitation and the net water vapour budget in the TRS since the 21st century.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating Dynamic Interactions in Multivariate Climate Time Series: Insights From Transfer Entropy Analysis Perspective","authors":"H. C. Deng,&nbsp;Z. R. Shu,&nbsp;X. H. He,&nbsp;P. W. Chan","doi":"10.1002/joc.70435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70435","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding how surface climate variables interact directionally remains challenging, particularly in complex terrain environments where nonlinear dynamics, terrain heterogeneity, and seasonal regime shifts limit the applicability of conventional correlation-based analyses. This study develops a multivariate, cross-station Transfer Entropy (TE) framework to diagnose directional climate interactions among wind speed, temperature, surface pressure, and relative humidity across five surface stations in Hong Kong. Daily observations from 1998–2018 are analysed separately for cold (October–April) and warm (May–September) monsoon regimes. The results show that directional asymmetry is consistently present across all variable pairs, stations, and seasons. However, both the magnitude and structure of information transfer exhibit strong seasonal and terrain dependence. During the cold season, interactions are spatially heterogeneous, with localised dominance of pressure-to-humidity coupling and temperature-driven effects at high-elevation sites. In contrast, the warm season displays a network-wide amplification of pressure-to-humidity interaction. In addition, the inter-station coupling of individual climate variables is also systematically diagnosed. Overall, the proposed approach robustly resolves spatially distributed and regime-dependent information transfer, thus enabling identification of dominant dynamic interaction patterns within complex climate systems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148704414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State of the UK Climate in 2025","authors":"Mike Kendon,&nbsp;Amy Doherty,&nbsp;Dan Hollis,&nbsp;Emily Carlisle,&nbsp;Stephen Packman,&nbsp;Nick Rayner,&nbsp;Ségolène Berthou,&nbsp;Lucy Barker,&nbsp;Steve Turner,&nbsp;Jamie Hannaford,&nbsp;Svetlana Jevrejeva,&nbsp;Andrew Matthews,&nbsp;Joanne Williams,&nbsp;Alex Marshall,&nbsp;Tim Sparks","doi":"10.1002/joc.70470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70470","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This report provides a summary of the state of the UK's climate in 2025. It is one of a series of annual reports published in the International Journal of Climatology since 2018. It presents the latest assessment of UK climate trends, variations and extremes based on the most up to date observations from the land network of weather stations. These observations are placed into context using long-running climate series extending back to the 19th Century. The observations represent ‘ground truth’, telling us what has already happened to our climate.\u0000 <figure>\u0000 <div><picture>\u0000 <source></source></picture><p></p>\u0000 </div>\u0000 </figure></p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 S1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70470","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Representation of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes During Heavy Rainfall Conditions in the Congo Basin in CMIP6 Models","authors":"Kevin Kenfack,&nbsp;Francesco Marra,&nbsp;Katinka Bellomo,&nbsp;Patrick Laux,&nbsp;Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou,&nbsp;Derbetini A. Vondou","doi":"10.1002/joc.70397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70397","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Accurate representation of water vapour fluxes during extreme precipitation events by climate models is essential if we want to trust their future projections. Here, we examine the ability of the models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of phase 6 (CMIP6) to represent the components of moisture fluxes, moisture static energy (MSE) budget, and atmospheric heating sources associated with extreme precipitation seasons in the Congo Basin. Our results reveal that the majority of CMIP6 models are in agreement with ERA5 in indicating that positive seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Congo Basin are controlled by vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies in both March–May (MAM) and September–November (SON) seasons. Analysis of the MSE balance shows that in MAM, vertical MSE advection induced by vertical motion is dominated in the southern part of the domain by horizontal MSE advection induced by MSE anomalies, while in the north, changes in the energy balance control vertical instability. However, it is important to emphasize that the positive anomalies of the horizontal MSE advection induced by the MSE anomalies are offset by the negative anomalies of the residual term, which weakens the atmospheric instability. In SON, there are significant contributions from the net energy balance and the residual term, mainly to the west of the Congo Basin and along the Gulf of Guinea. Conversely, the MSE budget is more noisy in both ERA5 and CMIP6 models and has an important residual term that suggests the linearization used here is insufficient to fully represent the budget. The investigation of the integrated atmospheric heating reveals that ERA5 simulates high values, especially in regions where heavy precipitation is recorded. Analysis of the CMIP6 models, including the ensemble mean model, similarly simulates high heating source values in extreme precipitation areas throughout the Congo Basin. The results of this study highlight the ability of the CMIP6 models to simulate the moisture and heating source balance during periods of extreme precipitation in the Congo Basin.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148373591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decadal Changes of UV Aerosol Optical Depth in Hobart, Australia Measured With a Brewer MKIII: Relationship to Bushfire Events and Climate Indices","authors":"Manuel Nuñez,&nbsp;Antonio Serrano,&nbsp;Peter Love,&nbsp;Nels Larson","doi":"10.1002/joc.70403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70403","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents a 21-year evolution of ultraviolet (UV) aerosol optical depth at 320 nm (AOD₃₂₀) in Hobart, Australia (42.8806° S, 147.3250° E) and its relationship to bushfire events and relevant climate indices. Daily AOD₃₂₀ is obtained from readings of a Brewer MKIII spectrophotometer over the period 2002–2023 and is processed into monthly averages. The evolution shows statistically significant increases of 15.4% per decade, although the series exhibits a large fluctuation with a minimum around April 2006 and a maximum around April 2019. The series also features 9 months where AOD₃₂₀ averages are more than twice the monthly standard deviation, with these months being related to major fire events in the Tasmanian region. To identify dominant influences on AOD₃₂₀, stepwise regression analyses were performed between monthly AOD₃₂₀ as the dependent variable and various climate indices and fire properties as predictors. Seasonality exerts a strong control on AOD₃₂₀. During summer months, AOD₃₂₀ is strongly related to fire Hot Spot numbers, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and time, with 58% of the variance accounted for by these three predictors. Spring AOD₃₂₀ is related to southerly winds and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), while winter and autumn AOD₃₂₀ are related only to time. The significance of these relationships is discussed within the context of our study region located in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70403","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148373538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}