International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"The Influence of +SR/−EAP Combined Pattern on Persistent Rainfall During the Pre-Rainy Season in South China and Its Associated Energetic Conversion","authors":"Weijie Zeng,&nbsp;Lijuan Wang,&nbsp;Zhaoyong Guan,&nbsp;Ruijuan Bao","doi":"10.1002/joc.70003","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Precipitation data provided by the China Meteorological Administration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1990 to 2020 are used to analyse the influence of +Silk Road/−East Asia-Pacific (+SR/−EAP) combined pattern on persistent rainfall during the pre-rainy season in South China (PRPSC) and its associated energetic conversion. The results indicate that the typical +SR/−EAP combined pattern is significantly correlated with the PRPSC. The development of the combined pattern results in the southward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), facilitating the transport of water vapour from the western Pacific to South China. Meanwhile, the South Asian high (SAH) intensifies and extends eastward, with its eastern boundary overlapping the western boundary of the WPSH along the East Asian coast, favouring the precipitation in South China. During the persistence of the combined pattern, integrated moisture flux convergence occurs in South China, with positive vorticity in the lower levels and negative vorticity in the upper levels, resulting in increased precipitation. The +SR/−EAP combined pattern develops by extracting energy from the basic flow via both barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions. However, since the barotropic energy conversion is relatively small and inefficient, the maintenance of the combined pattern mainly relies on baroclinic energy conversion to obtain available potential energy from the basic flow. Barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions primarily occur in regions north of 30°N, effectively supporting the anomalous centres of the +SR/−EAP pattern in mid-to-high latitudes. Baroclinic energy conversion is positive in both the upper and lower troposphere. However, the energy conversion in the upper troposphere exceeds that in the lower, which shows that the baroclinic energy conversion contributes more significantly to the maintenance of the +SR pattern.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating Wind Speed Variability and Its Climate Modulators in South America Using CMIP6 Simulations (1980–2014)","authors":"Ovidio Llompart,&nbsp;Héctor H. Sepúlveda,&nbsp;Martín Jacques-Coper,&nbsp;Marieta Hernández","doi":"10.1002/joc.8921","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8921","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this study, we applied an Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis on the behaviour of monthly wind speed at 100 m (WS100) in selected regions of South America to detect its modulation by different atmospheric patterns. Reanalysis data from ERA5 and 14 global climate models from CMIP6 were used for the period 1980–2014. We found that the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) is the main WS100 modulator over northeastern Brazil with a direct relationship (correlation coefficients up to 0.55) between the SAA intensity and the 1st principal component (PC1), which explains 59.1% of the WS100 total variance in that region. This means that as SAA intensity increases, WS100 increases as well over northeast Brazil and vice versa. We discovered a pattern of sea level pressure anomalies centred around the Drake Passage, which we named the Patagonia-Antarctic pattern (PAT), and it is the main WS100 modulator over Patagonia. Significant negative correlations (up to −0.68) were found between PAT and PC1, which explains 52.2% of the total variance for that region. The positive phase of the PAT index causes a decrease of WS100 over Patagonia, while WS100 increases during the negative phase of PAT. We also determined that the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the second variability mode that determines the WS100 field over Patagonia, given by high correlation coefficients (up to 0.52) between AAO and PC2, which explains 22.8% of the total variance. The positive phase of AAO causes an increase of WS100 over the southern tip of Patagonia, and a decrease north of 45°S; the opposite occurs during the negative phase of AAO. These results are of great relevance for a better understanding of wind variability causes in South America, which is essential for wind resource evaluation, long term system planning and risk assessment in current and future wind power projects.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projection of Temperatures and Precipitation Using the LARS-WG Model in Eastern China Under the CMIP6 Scenarios","authors":"Kinde Negessa Disasa,&nbsp;Haofang Yan,&nbsp;Rongxuan Bao,&nbsp;Jianyun Zhang,&nbsp;Chuan Zhang,&nbsp;Biyu Wang,&nbsp;Guoqing Wang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8929","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8929","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Increasing atmospheric temperatures and variations in precipitation patterns pose significant threats to agricultural productivity and water resource management. This study aimed to detect the trends and future projections of temporally and spatially specific decisive climate variables in agricultural production and hydrological cycles for the major crop-producing region of eastern China, specifically Anhui, eastern Henan, southwestern Shandong and northern Jiangsu, which are considered the most climate-vulnerable regions in the country. Precipitation (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;), maximum (&lt;i&gt;T&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;max&lt;/sub&gt;), and minimum (&lt;i&gt;T&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;min&lt;/sub&gt;) temperatures were projected from six global circulation models (ACCESS-ESM1-5, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MRI-ESM2-0, CNRM-CM6-1, GFDL-ESM4 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR) using the latest version of the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG 8) model for two future periods: mid-term 2050 (2041–2060) and long-term 2080 (2071–2090) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (ssp126, ssp245 and ssp585). Furthermore, the baseline (1991–2020) arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the monthly and annual precipitation trends were identified using conventional trend analysis techniques (Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope tests), in conjunction with innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA). The results indicated that all meteorological stations in Anhui Province, except for Suzhou, Dangshan and Mengcheng, showed a significant decreasing trend in the arithmetic mean of monthly &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt; in March, based on the MK method. However, a significant increasing trend was identified only in August at Bengbu station. Bozhou and Yanzhou stations showed a significant annual decreasing trend in &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;. In contrast, the IPTA method demonstrated a significantly decreasing trend in most months, indicating its higher sensitivity than the MK method in detecting precipitation data series. The projections showed that the average monthly and annual &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt; is likely to increase at all meteorological stations in the future. The annual average precipitation change showed the greatest increase under ssp126 (=14.25 mm), followed by ssp585 (=10.58 mm) and ssp245 (=9.47 mm) in the mid-term period (2050). In contrast, in the long-term period (2080), the highest annual average &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt; was projected under ssp585 (=21.22 mm), followed by ssp245 (=20.65 mm) and ssp126 (=15.48 mm). Monthly &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt; was projected to increase in four provinces, except in August in East Henan, where a notable decrease was observed. Significant increases were anticipated in June in Anhui (=41.00 mm), August in Shandong (=32.10 mm), July in East Henan (=47.80 mm), and June in Northern Jiangsu (=34.10 mm). Both &lt;i&gt;T&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;max&lt;/sub&gt; and &lt;i&gt;T&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;min&lt;/sub&gt; are anticipated to increase persistently across all meteorological stations during the two periods 2050 (2041–2060) and 2080 (2071–2090) under the three SSP scenarios. The long-term period (2080) was pro","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the ERA5 Reanalysis Snowfall Product in China","authors":"Guodong Wang,&nbsp;Yongli He,&nbsp;Changjian Ni,&nbsp;Yanchuan Zhong,&nbsp;Guowei Deng,&nbsp;Jinxia Xu,&nbsp;Jia Liu,&nbsp;Yuanxin Xu,&nbsp;Dan Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8926","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8926","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Snowfall data is crucial for climate, hydrological and disaster research. However, long-term comprehensive ground-based snowfall observations are limited. In this context, reanalysis datasets such as ERA5 provide promising alternatives, but require careful evaluation prior to application. In this study, mainland China was divided into eight subregions based on terrain and climate characteristics. Using daily precipitation and weather phenomenon records from 2145 meteorological stations during 1980–2023, we assessed the accuracy of ERA5 snowfall data at multiple time scales and analysed its performance relative to snowfall intensity. Key findings include: (1) ERA5 performs best at the monthly scale, followed by the annual scale, but shows relatively low accuracy for daily snowfall detection, necessitating corrections for broader application. (2) ERA5 struggles to accurately capture snowy days (SDs) during light-to-moderate snowfall events and average snowfall on snowy days (ASSD) during blizzard-to-extreme blizzard events, which reduces daily accuracy. (3) ERA5's performance varies regionally, with better results in Northern China (NC) and Changjiang (CJ) regions, and relatively poor performance in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region. These results provide important insights into the strengths and limitations of the ERA5 snowfall product and offer valuable guidance for its application in China.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interannual-Interdecadal Variability of Extreme Low Temperature in North Asia and Its Driving Mechanisms","authors":"Ya Gao,&nbsp;Dong Chen,&nbsp;Tao Wang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8928","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8928","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics and its impact of winter extreme low temperature in North Asia, the extreme cold days index (TX10p) is used in this study. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of extreme cold days in North Asia exhibits a consistent distribution centered on Lake Baikal, primarily showing interannual variability. It is influenced by two key factors: snow cover in the previous autumn and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the wintertime, modulated by the land-atmosphere. Specifically, the previous autumn snow cover can affect the strength of mid-high latitude troughs and ridges by adjusting the meridional temperature gradient and the strength of the westerly wind, thereby influencing cold waves. Meanwhile, the winter AO can modulate the southward movement of polar cold air by adjusting the strength of the polar vortex, ultimately impacting the frequency of extreme cold days in North Asia. The second EOF mode of the extreme cold days in North Asia displays a northeast–southwest dipole distribution bounded by Lake Baikal, mainly showing an interdecadal transition. Temporally, before 2000, the pattern featured more cold days in the northeast and less in the southwest, with the opposite trend in the later period. Spatially, the spatial distribution also has a corresponding interdecadal change around 2000. The northeast–southwest boundary of the dipole pattern shifted from around 50° N in the early period to approximately 60° N in the later period, reflecting an expansion of the southwest region. The interdecadal change characteristics of the second mode are mainly modulated by the combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Under the synergistic changes of the AMO and PDO phases, the sea surface temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic can influence the strength of the polar vortex, thereby affecting the north–south gradient in the mid to high latitudes, and the strengths of westerlies and troughs and ridges, ultimately being conducive or not conducive to the southward movement of cold air. In addition, shifts in the PDO phase impact the strength and position of the Aleutian Low, which alters the East Asian trough and contributes to the north–south displacement of the EOF2 mode's spatial pattern.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating SINGV-RCM for Long-Term High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over Southeast Asia","authors":"Venkatraman Prasanna,&nbsp;Anurag Dipankar,&nbsp;Jianyu Liu,&nbsp;Gerald Lim,&nbsp;Aurel Moise,&nbsp;Xin Rong Chua,&nbsp;Chen Chen,&nbsp;Jian Jun Yu,&nbsp;Pavan Harika Raavi,&nbsp;Fei Luo,&nbsp;Muhammad Eeqmal Hassim,&nbsp;Sandeep Sahany,&nbsp;Claudio Sanchez,&nbsp;Stuart Webster","doi":"10.1002/joc.8932","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8932","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Long-term convection-permitting dynamical downscaling has been carried out over Southeast Asia and the Western Maritime Continent, using the Singapore Regional Climate Model (SINGV-RCM) at 8 and 2 km spatial resolutions, respectively. SINGV-RCM is forced with ERA5 reanalysis data for 36 years (1979–2014) at 8 km resolution over Southeast Asia (79E-160E; 16S-24N) with a regular update of the sea surface temperature at 6-h intervals. Subsequently, the 8 km domain simulation is used for forcing a smaller domain over the Western Maritime Continent at a resolution of 2 km (93E-110E; 7.2S-9.9N) for 20 years (1995–2014). Rainfall characteristics including the diurnal cycle, monthly annual cycle, and daily extremes over land and ocean from the two simulations are evaluated against the high-resolution IMERG precipitation data available from 2001 to 2014. SINGV-RCM captures mean and extreme rainfall well; however, there are noticeable biases in the rainfall magnitude over the Ocean. These biases agree with the earlier publications on convection-permitting simulation over the maritime Continent. Models' skill is further evaluated in terms of mean, bias, pattern correlation and RMSE for 8 and 2 km simulations against the IMERG precipitation data.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8932","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surface Temperature Influenced by Downward Longwave Radiation Is the Main Driver of Deglaciation in Central Asia","authors":"Wenhui Tang,&nbsp;Xinfeng Wu,&nbsp;Feng Chen,&nbsp;Wenmin Man,&nbsp;Weipeng Yue,&nbsp;Shijie Wang,&nbsp;Youping Chen,&nbsp;Heli Zhang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8934","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8934","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The economy and society of Central Asia depend heavily on glacier meltwater from the Tien Shan as a water resource. However, recent global warming has altered the regional climate and melting patterns of glaciers, and an unprecedented trend of glacier retreat caused by rapid warming has been observed in the Tien Shan since the 1970s. While short-term monitoring and climate response of glaciers are well developed, less effort has been devoted to long-term historical fluctuations and physical mechanism studies based on climate models. Here we use a tree-ring reconstruction and melting energy simulated by an energy balance model to study the glacier mass balance of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 for the past 400 years, with the aim of better understanding the long-term changes in the relationship between this glacier and climate change during the summer ablation period. Our results demonstrated that surface temperature change driven by downward longwave radiation is the dominant factor affecting long-term glacier melting. Against the background of climatic warming and humidification in northwest China, the increase in precipitation is unable to offset the melting trend caused by rising temperatures. Further analysis revealed that the dominant driver of glacier melting is the warming effect of greenhouse gas forcing. Also, aerosol forcing causes glacier melting via direct and indirect radiation effects. These findings emphasise the importance of monitoring the regional glaciers, combined with climate change research, to establish a scientific foundation for water management and environmental conservation in Central Asia.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145100993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of Soil Moisture Deficits to Compound Droughts and Hot Extremes Across the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins","authors":"Yuting Pang,&nbsp;Yutong Jiang,&nbsp;Zengchao Hao,&nbsp;Yitong Zhang","doi":"10.1002/joc.8925","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8925","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Compound droughts and hot extremes (CDHEs) can exert higher impacts on water resources, agricultural production and ecosystems, among others. Though the low precipitation and high temperature leading to reduced soil moisture have been well documented, the quantitative estimation of the impact of CDHEs on soil moisture deficits (or agricultural droughts) has been rather limited. In this study, we investigated the distinct response of soil moisture deficits to CDHEs across two major basins in China, the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) (mostly humid regions) and the Yellow River Basin (YRB) (mostly arid and semi-arid regions). We found the response of soil moisture deficits is stronger under CDHEs compared with individual meteorological droughts (precipitation deficits). In addition, due to the difference in evapotranspiration response, the physical processes of soil moisture deficits responding to CDHEs in the YZRB differ from those in the YRB. The differences in meteorological factors (e.g., rainfall, temperature, vapour pressure deficit, radiation and evapotranspiration) leading to soil moisture deficits under individual meteorological droughts and CDHEs are also investigated. The case study of the record CDHEs during 2022 further demonstrates the response pattern of soil moisture deficits and associated driving factors. These results highlight the importance of considering different climate regions in understanding the impact of CDHEs on agricultural droughts.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145100994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Study of Recent Changes in Moisture Flux Patterns Over India: Implications for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall","authors":"Amarjeet,&nbsp;Vasubandhu Misra,&nbsp;Arun Chakraborty,&nbsp;Anil K. Gupta,&nbsp;Vineet Sharma","doi":"10.1002/joc.8927","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8927","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the changes in the linear trends of the precipitable water content (PWC) associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using the ERA-5 datasets. The study period of 63 years (1959–2021) is divided into two time periods P1: 1959–2001 and P2: 2002–2021. In the recent period (P2), we observe a significant rise in the statistically significant linear trend of the mean JJAS PWC leading to a significant positive difference of P2 − P1 over most of India. This change is found to be largest in the middle troposphere, where the rotational component of the moisture flux is strengthened in P2 relative to P1. This modulation is attributed to the non-uniform rate of change of tropospheric air temperature in the lower and middle troposphere in P2 from the rising land–ocean thermal contrast. This results in stabilising the atmosphere. Consequently, we also observe an increase in the fraction of stratiform precipitation in P2 relative to P1. This increase in stratiform precipitation is associated with enhanced mid-atmospheric diabatic heating and mid-tropospheric southwesterly moisture flux, which enhances PWC in P2 compared to P1.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145100969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative Evaluation of Decadal Predictions of Global SST Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Datasets","authors":"Mengting Pan,&nbsp;Xiefei Zhi,&nbsp;Jingyu Wang,&nbsp;Yan Ji,&nbsp;Shenwei Chen,&nbsp;Dan Zhu,&nbsp;Chunhui Fan","doi":"10.1002/joc.8923","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8923","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate predictions of the Earth's near-term (1 year and 2–5 year lead-time) climate are crucial for informed decision-making in various sectors such as agriculture, energy, public health, and infrastructure planning. Using the yearly initialized decadal hindcasts of the sea surface temperature (SST) from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 datasets, we evaluated their prediction skills over the North Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and tropical eastern Pacific for the next 5 years. In terms of spatial patterns, only the CMIP5 CanCM4 model exhibits a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) pattern that aligns with the observations. Although CMIP6 models cannot precisely replicate the spatial pattern of the PDO, their accurate prediction of North Pacific mid-latitude SST indicates reliable regional forecasting. In the North Atlantic, all the models except the CMIP6 CanESM5 can reproduce a spatial pattern for the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation closely resembling observations. Evaluation of prediction skill over the Indian Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific was performed on an interannual scale, focusing on predictions at the first forecast lead year in terms of seasonal phase locking and prediction accuracy. Notably, the CMIP6 dataset exhibited superior performance compared to CMIP5 in the Indian Ocean. Across seasonality, all models effectively captured the seasonal peak of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), occurring in September–November. CMIP6 demonstrated superior performance to CMIP5 in predicting IOD intensity, RMSE, and correlation coefficients. Evaluation over the tropical eastern Pacific revealed no significant improvement in prediction skill from CMIP5 to CMIP6. The heightened prediction skill for the IOD in the CMIP6 dataset, relative to the CMIP5 dataset, is primarily evident in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Additionally, models in CMIP6 could simulate a robust correlation between the dipole mode index and Niño 3.4 index, whereas those in CMIP5 could not, underscoring an advancement in predictive capabilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8923","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145100971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}