International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Simultaneous Drought and Heatwave Events During Austral Summer in Northeast Brazil","authors":"Katyelle F. S. Bezerra,&nbsp;Helber B. Gomes,&nbsp;Hakki Baltaci,&nbsp;Pallav Ray,&nbsp;Janaíına P. Nascimento,&nbsp;Dirceu L. Herdies,&nbsp;Matheus J. A. Lyra,&nbsp;Maria Cristina L. Silva,&nbsp;Fabrício D. S. Silva,&nbsp;Cláudio M. Santos e Silva,&nbsp;Heliofábio B. Gomes","doi":"10.1002/joc.8920","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8920","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The simultaneous occurrence of heatwaves and droughts is becoming more frequent and intense under climate change, particularly affecting vulnerable regions like Northeast Brazil (NEB). This study presents a comprehensive assessment of these compound extremes using long-term in situ observations and ERA5 reanalysis. Heatwaves were defined by daily temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile, and droughts by the standardised precipitation index (SPI-1). Results reveal substantial spatio-temporal variability in these events, with sharp increases in frequency, duration, and intensity since the early 1990s–especially in 1998, 2006 and 2015, linked to La Niña and El Niño events. Atmospheric analyses showed positive temperature anomalies at 2 m, persistent negative specific humidity at multiple pressure levels, and contrasting circulation anomalies: positive flow at 850 hPa, negative at 500 hPa, and changes in divergence and vorticity. The semiarid region of the northeast was the most affected by drought, while the northeastern coast had higher frequencies of heatwaves, with longer durations. These findings highlight the complex interactions driving compound extremes in NEB and underscore the urgent need for regional adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145100867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Northeast Brazil Orographic Enhanced Rainfall and Monsoon Dynamics","authors":"Victor A. R. Felix,&nbsp;David F. Porinchu,&nbsp;Andrew J. Grundstein,&nbsp;Thomas L. Mote,&nbsp;Donald R. Nelson","doi":"10.1002/joc.8911","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8911","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Comprehensive climatologies are essential for decision making processes in regions with recurrent droughts and increasing flood risk, such as Northeast Brazil. Therefore, our work proposes an updated rainfall climatology for Northeast Brazil (1990–2020), discussing the possible role of orography and monsoon dynamics on this climate system. We used ERA5 surface-wind and sea-level pressure, the TOPODATA altimetry and the Brazilian gridded weather BR-DWGD datasets. We also incorporate a statistical analysis of continental and oceanic surface winds and rainfall dynamics at the Araripe Plateau. Our work identifies multiple areas affected by orographic enhanced rainfall according to altitudes above 550 m above sea level. Two major orographic enhanced rainfall systems are identified at the Araripe Plateau and the Diamantina Plateau. Moreover, in southern Northeast Brazil, orography was noted to limit the incursion of the monsoon rainfall associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). In addition to the SACZ, our analysis indicates that the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) has a large influence on Northeast Brazil rainfall, reversing surface-wind fields during the summer. This monsoon influence leads to the formation of the Northeast Brazil Convergence Zone (NBCZ), an atmospheric feature which we suggest occurs zonally oriented over the southern portion of the Borborema Amphitheatre near 7.5° S, between November and April. The NBCZ acts as a dynamical barrier that limits the meridional flux of moisture between northern and southern Northeast Brazil. This is especially pronounced along the Araripe Plateau. The autumn monsoon rainfall occurs between February and April enhanced by the influence of the nearby ITCZ, which increases moisture availability on the northern coast. The drier period in most of Northeast Brazil occurs between May and October, when the region is under the influence of a high-pressure system, the South Atlantic Anticyclone, which limits rainfall predominantly to the eastern coastal region.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8911","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Assessment of Atmospheric Convection Trends Over India Using Radiosonde Derived CAPE and Other Proxies","authors":"Piyush Kumar Ojha,&nbsp;Amit Kumar Mishra,&nbsp;Vinay Singh,&nbsp;Saloni Sharma,&nbsp;Aniket Gupta,&nbsp;Amit Prakash,&nbsp;Omvir Singh,&nbsp;Krishan Kumar","doi":"10.1002/joc.8917","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8917","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is widely considered a good measure of atmospheric convection. Though there is a general consensus among the scientific community about the increasing trend of atmospheric convection in a warming scenario, the tropical region presents an uncertain picture of atmospheric convection as recent studies report disagreement between radiosonde and ERA5-derived CAPE trends. In this study, we attempt to address this uncertainty over the Indian region by considering several other proxies of atmospheric convection, namely surface equivalent potential temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, upper tropospheric carbon monoxide, convective precipitation and lightning in addition to the CAPE trends obtained from radiosonde based observations and ERA5 model-based data sets for the period 2001 to 2024. Our results of radiosonde-reported CAPE from 29 stations spread across the entire India show a significant decreasing trend at 0Z (−30.85 J/kg/year), whereas a slightly increasing trend (0.5 J/kg/year) is observed over these stations in ERA5 CAPE data sets at 0Z. Further, our analysis reveals that the CAPE trend based on radiosonde observations over India is reversed if we compute CAPE following the surface-based approach (i.e., SBCAPE). The disagreement between radiosonde and ERA5 CAPE trends raises questions about the reliability of radiosonde-reported CAPE as a measure of atmospheric convection over India. However, results from all other proxies suggest an increasing trend of atmospheric convection over India. Therefore, we conclude that inferences based solely on radiosonde-reported CAPE may not be sufficient to assess the trends of atmospheric convection over India, and a more holistic approach based on several proxies is needed.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of the Intertropical Convergence Zone on the Aerosol Transport Pathways From Africa Towards the Western Tropical Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Aline Loise Santana Faria,&nbsp;Rose Ane Pereira de Freitas,&nbsp;Ronald Buss de Souza,&nbsp;Mônica Wallner-Kersanach,&nbsp;Heitor Evangelista,&nbsp;Regiane Moura,&nbsp;Leonardo Contreira-Pereira,&nbsp;Nicolai Mirlean,&nbsp;Elisa Rosa Seus-Arrache,&nbsp;Eunice da Costa Machado","doi":"10.1002/joc.8910","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8910","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;This study investigates the pathways of aerosol transport from Africa towards the Western Tropical Atlantic Ocean (WTAO), and the consequent deposition of terrigenous particulates in the ocean's surface, especially relating the deposition of these elements with the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The work uses meteorological, oceanographic and geochemical data collected in situ during the PIRATA (Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic) BR-XVIII (hereinafter P18) campaign performed in October–November 2018 in along the 38° W meridian between 1° S and 15° N. Atmospheric radiosondes and Expendable Bathythermographs (XBTs), launched from aboard the Brazilian Navy, Research Vessel (R/V) Vital de Oliveira, allowed us to delineate the exact latitudinal band of the ITCZ and the associated ocean divergence occurring in the study area and period. Surface water samples were taken along the ship's track at the same locations where radiosondes and XBTs were launched. After processing in the laboratory, the water samples allowed us to estimate the concentrations of lithogenic, suspended particulate aluminium and iron in surface water. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back-trajectory model was used to reconstruct the transport paths of aerosols (including aluminium and iron) originating from the African continent towards the WTAO, as well as the relation of these paths with the ITCZ position during the study period. Our results underline the influence of the ITCZ position on the aerosol paths and on the aluminium and iron deposition in the WTAO. The ITCZ position during the study period was, particularly, important for modulating the deposition of aluminium and iron in surface waters at about 10° N, the northern edge of the ITCZ at the time. This modulation was evident in the spatial distribution of the studied minerals at sea surface along the 38° W meridian, suggesting a barrier effect of the ITCZ on aerosol transport south of 10° N. Using satellite-derived data of several sources, this study also identified the seasonal variations in aerosol inputs from Africa towards the open sea, with mineral dust predominantly originating from the Sahara and biomass burning aerosols originating from central and sub-Saharan Africa. The unique integration of observational atmospheric, oceanographic and geochemical data used here allowed a comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean for modulating the deposition of aluminium and iron in the WTAO. These minerals are key to more complex processes such as the ocean's fertilisation and consequent productivity. Nevertheless, the possibility of other sources of minerals contributing to the concentrations found in the study area cannot be ruled out. These other sources can be the Amazon River discharge and the proximity of the Brazilian coast in the southern part of the 38° ","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unravelling Teleconnection-Driven Shifts in Precipitation Extremes Over Pakistan Through HighResMIP-CMIP6 Simulations","authors":"Kanzul Eman,&nbsp;Eun-Sung Chung,&nbsp;Brian Odhiambo Ayugi,&nbsp;Irfan Ullah","doi":"10.1002/joc.8916","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8916","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change driven by global warming alters the fundamental characteristics of climate variables. Comprehending changes in extreme events and assessing their variation during the observed and projected periods is crucial for effective climate change adaptation and water resource management. In the Asia–Pacific region, due to the global oceanic and atmospheric patterns influencing precipitation variability, the study explores the extent to which teleconnection patterns impact precipitation extremes including consecutive dry days (CDD), days with rainfall exceeding 10 mm (R10mm), total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum single-day and 5-day precipitation (Rx1day and Rx5day), as well as the percentages of total precipitation from 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles (R90pTOT, R95pTOT and R99pTOT). To understand potential connections between extreme indices and global drivers, the observed changes show negative correlations with CDD during the monsoon season. The correlation of individual indices shows that all indices are highly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific North Index (PNA) with a correlation of 0.52–0.67 during the pre-monsoon season, whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and ENSO have positive correlation during the post-monsoon season. The association of the teleconnection and the projected precipitation indices demonstrates a robust correlation with extreme indices during the monsoon season, particularly in association with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and PDO. In contrast, ENSO shows no notable correlation during the pre-monsoon season. Projections of future extreme precipitation are evaluated for the impact of variation in global teleconnections in contributing to add deeper understanding of mechanisms driving extreme precipitation events. This study serves as a valuable reference for researchers, providing a foundation for developing effective mitigation strategies that support sustainable development.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8916","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancements in Extreme Precipitation Projections for South Asia: A Comparative Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models","authors":"Mohammad Kamruzzaman,&nbsp;Shahriar Wahid,&nbsp;Mohammed Mainuddin,&nbsp;Francis Chiew,&nbsp;Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam,&nbsp;Mohammed Magdy Hamed,&nbsp;Kelly R. Thorp,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1002/joc.8915","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8915","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global climate models (GCMs) are essential for projecting future climate changes, yet their ability to accurately simulate extreme precipitation, particularly in South Asia, remains a major challenge. This study assessed the performance of GCMs from CMIP5 and CMIP6 in replicating 11 extreme precipitation indices, using ERA5 data from 1975 to 2005. The results revealed substantial variability across individual models, with CMIP6 generally outperforming CMIP5, though certain inconsistencies persisted. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble means (MMEs) exhibited higher root mean square error (RMSE) than the best individual models, highlighting the need for further improvements in model accuracy. On average, CMIP6 models achieved a Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.42, outperforming CMIP5's 0.38, and demonstrated better agreement in Taylor diagrams, with an average <i>r</i>² of 0.65 compared to 0.59 for CMIP5. CMIP6 also showed reduced uncertainty in interannual monthly precipitation variability projections. EC-Earth3 (CMIP6) and EC-Earth (CMIP5) consistently correlated well with various indices, while MIROC-ESM was also a strong performer in both generations. The CMIP6 MME performed better overall, with a KGE of 0.48 and <i>r</i>² of 0.71, surpassing CMIP5 MME's 0.44 and 0.67. Future projections indicate significant changes in precipitation extremes under different emission scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s. While CMIP6 shows clear advancements over CMIP5, continued model refinement is essential to more accurately simulate extreme precipitation events.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interannual Variability of January Haze Pollution in the Sichuan Basin, China and Its Association With the SSTs Over the Southeastern Indian, Tropical Pacific and North Pacific Oceans","authors":"Yu Luo,&nbsp;Chao Chen,&nbsp;Pengguo Zhao,&nbsp;Changyan Zhou,&nbsp;Jia Liu,&nbsp;Jing Zhang,&nbsp;Yumeng Zhou,&nbsp;Sixian Cen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8897","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8897","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Haze pollution occurs in almost every winter month in the Sichuan Basin, with a higher frequency in January. The interannual and decadal variations of January haze are inconsistent with those in the other winter months, showing a noticeable sub-seasonal variability in haze pollution. The findings of this study indicate that the noticeably higher haze days over the Sichuan Basin in January are closely associated with the simultaneous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) and tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO), and with the SST cooling in the southeastern Indian Ocean (SIO). When the SST in the NPO warms in January, the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation is stimulated through a high-latitude path, the Middle East jet stream weakens, and the Siberian high weakens, and the Aleutian Low intensifies, indicating that cold air activities are restricted and their paths are eastward. This synoptic situation results in weaker cold air over the Sichuan Basin. Meanwhile, the southern branch of the Rossby wave train from the eastern Pacific Ocean propagates along Western Europe to the East Asian coast, leading to high pressure and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Sichuan Basin, resulting in reduced precipitation and more haze days in the Sichuan Basin. When the January SST shows warming in the TPO and cooling in the SIO, prominent anticyclonic anomalies strengthen over the Tibetan Plateau and its downstream regions, weakening the southwesterly warm moisture flow. This situation provides unfavourable conditions for precipitation occurrence, thereby facilitating haze pollution over the Sichuan Basin. Consequently, the January SST anomalies in the NPO, TPO and SIO may be associated with the anomalies of local meteorological elements, which restrict the vertical and horizontal dispersion of haze pollution over the Sichuan Basin in January.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8897","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “The Efficacy of Tropical and Extratropical Predictors for Long-Lead El Niño-Southern Oscillation Prediction: A Study Using a Machine Learning Algorithm”","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/joc.8909","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8909","url":null,"abstract":"<p>W.-J. Song, J.-Y. Yu, and T. Lian, “The Efficacy of Tropical and Extratropical Predictors for Long-Lead El Niño-Southern Oscillation Prediction: A Study Using a Machine Learning Algorithm,” <i>International Journal of Climatology</i> 43, no. 14 (2023): 6887–6899, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8241.</p><p>The second affiliation of Wan-Jiao Song and the first affiliation of Tao Lian should read as State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China. <b>Ministry of Natural Resources</b> has been added.</p><p>We apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8909","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Summer Humid Heat in Europe: Trends, Extremes, and Drivers","authors":"Shawn M. Milrad,&nbsp;Kelsey E. Ennis","doi":"10.1002/joc.8913","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8913","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Humid heat has increased in intensity, frequency and duration across the world, including in mid-latitude regions not acclimated to it. While Europe is no stranger to deadly and economically damaging extreme heat events, many infamous European heat waves during the 21st century have been relatively dry, resulting in limited research on humid heat in the region. Using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), this study uses high-resolution reanalysis data to investigate trends in the intensity, frequency, and duration of humid heat throughout Europe during climatological summers, 1950–2023. Results show that average and extreme (90th percentile) WBGT intensity exhibit statistically significant increases throughout Europe. Extreme humid heat intensity is increasing faster than average humid heat intensity across much of northern Europe and the Mediterranean coast, especially at night. Daytime humid heat trends are largest in western and northern Europe, while nighttime trends exceed daytime trends in eastern and southern Europe. Furthermore, there are statistically significant and large frequency and duration trends in extreme humid heat, especially at night near the Mediterranean, where extreme events are occurring approximately three extra nights per decade and extreme event duration is more than 1 day longer each decade. Unlike the Southeast United States, where dewpoint (humidity) increases are most responsible for WBGT increases, temperature increases are the dominant driver of positive WBGT trends across most of Europe. Results demonstrate that while humid heat is worsening in many locations across the world, it can amplify for different reasons in different regions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Comparison Study of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset Simulated in Atmosphere-Only and Air-Sea Coupled Experiments With FGOALS-f3-L Model","authors":"Linglong Yu,&nbsp;Xiaofei Wu,&nbsp;Kaiqing Yang,&nbsp;Jiangyu Mao,&nbsp;Yimin Liu,&nbsp;Wei Hua,&nbsp;Jinjian Li,&nbsp;Keke Sun","doi":"10.1002/joc.8900","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8900","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The onset timing of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) has critical influences on the seasonal march of the Asian summer monsoon, but the skills of its simulation and prediction are limited for climate models. This study examined the ability of the finite-volume version 3 of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere-Land system model (FGOALS-f3-L) to simulate BOBSM onset dates and investigated the potential causes of the largely delayed onset in air-sea coupled simulations by comparing the atmosphere-only experiment datasets derived from the CMIP6 atmospheric model inter-comparison project (AMIP) simulations and the air-sea coupled experiment datasets derived from the CMIP6 Historical simulations. The AMIP simulations can almost accurately reproduce the climatological onset date, but it delays by about four pentads in the Historical simulations. However, the AMIP and Historical simulations can reasonably capture the abrupt transformations of precipitation and atmospheric circulations during the BOBSM onsets. In the Historical simulations, the overestimated surface winds in the preceding winter increase surface latent heat loss over the Arabian Sea and BOB, leading to cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases that persist into spring. Meanwhile, the overestimated land surface sensible heat flux over the Indochina Peninsula in April introduces strong northwestlies over the Eastern BOB, producing a strong anticyclone over the BOB and the resultant SST cooling because of induced upwelling by offshore ocean currents. The atmospheric anticyclone and cold SST bias are unfavourable for the convection initiation over the BOB, resulting in delayed BOBSM onset. For the interannual variability, both AMIP and Historical simulations can capture the significant positive correlation between the onset dates and ENSO, indicating that the FGOALS-f3-L has the potential ability for BOBSM onset prediction.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}