Unravelling Teleconnection-Driven Shifts in Precipitation Extremes Over Pakistan Through HighResMIP-CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract

Climate change driven by global warming alters the fundamental characteristics of climate variables. Comprehending changes in extreme events and assessing their variation during the observed and projected periods is crucial for effective climate change adaptation and water resource management. In the Asia–Pacific region, due to the global oceanic and atmospheric patterns influencing precipitation variability, the study explores the extent to which teleconnection patterns impact precipitation extremes including consecutive dry days (CDD), days with rainfall exceeding 10 mm (R10mm), total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum single-day and 5-day precipitation (Rx1day and Rx5day), as well as the percentages of total precipitation from 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles (R90pTOT, R95pTOT and R99pTOT). To understand potential connections between extreme indices and global drivers, the observed changes show negative correlations with CDD during the monsoon season. The correlation of individual indices shows that all indices are highly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific North Index (PNA) with a correlation of 0.52–0.67 during the pre-monsoon season, whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and ENSO have positive correlation during the post-monsoon season. The association of the teleconnection and the projected precipitation indices demonstrates a robust correlation with extreme indices during the monsoon season, particularly in association with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and PDO. In contrast, ENSO shows no notable correlation during the pre-monsoon season. Projections of future extreme precipitation are evaluated for the impact of variation in global teleconnections in contributing to add deeper understanding of mechanisms driving extreme precipitation events. This study serves as a valuable reference for researchers, providing a foundation for developing effective mitigation strategies that support sustainable development.