日本气象站和梯度增强决策树估算的通用热气候指数(UTCI)的长期变化

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Ryoga Hiroki, Alvin C. G. Varquez, Do Ngoc Khanh, Ryza Rynazal, Florent Renard, Lucille Alonso, Manabu Kanda
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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估热舒适的长期变化可能有助于考虑针对热相关健康风险的措施。本研究利用通用热气候指数(UTCI)计算了1980-2020年日本140个气象站的热舒适时空变化。为了获得平均辐射温度(MRT)值,在气象站不易测量,但在估计UTCI时需要,开发了一个机器学习模型(XGBoost)。该模型使用台站观测数据、来自ERA-5再分析数据集的粗分辨率辐射数据以及可用的全球温度测量数据作为预测因子。夏季全日本UTCI呈显著正趋势。冬季北部地区气象站呈负趋势。这表明,在寒冷地区,不仅要注意热应激风险,还要注意冷应激风险。最后,将估计的UTCI与地级市夏季中暑日数据进行比较发现,中暑病例急剧上升的UTCI阈值在温暖地区和寒冷地区之间差异明显,后者的阈值较低。这些发现有助于估计气候变化的风险,并有助于更好地规划适应气候变化的城市。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Long-Term Changes of Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) Estimated From Weather Stations and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees Throughout Japan

Long-Term Changes of Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) Estimated From Weather Stations and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees Throughout Japan

Evaluating long-term changes in thermal comfort can be useful for considering measures against thermal-related health risks. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in thermal comfort, using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), were calculated from observations at 140 weather stations across Japan for the 1980–2020 period. To derive the mean radiant temperature (MRT) values not readily measured at the stations but required in the estimation of UTCI, a machine-learning model (XGBoost) was developed. The model uses the station observations, coarse-resolution radiation data from the ERA-5 reanalyses dataset, and available globe temperature measurements as predictors. The trend of UTCI throughout Japan in summer was found to be significantly positive. Meanwhile, negative trends were found in stations located in northern areas during the winter. This suggests that not only heat stress risks but also cold stress risks should be given careful attention in colder regions. Lastly, a comparison of the estimated UTCI with prefecture-level daily summertime heat-stroke data reveals that the UTCI threshold above which heat-stroke cases rise drastically varies distinctly between warm and cold regions, with the latter having a lower threshold. These findings could contribute to the estimation of risks attributable to climate change and to better planning of climate-change-resilient cities.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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