Mahesh Kalshetti, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Andrew G. Turner, R. Phani, Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The transient eddies in the atmosphere are short-lived, moving disturbances prominent over mid-latitude. Transient eddy transport enables the exchange of mass, energy, and moisture between extratropical and tropical regions. Based on observations, about 40% of the rain that falls in northern India during the summer monsoons is influenced by transient eddy heat and momentum fluxes. During these rainfall cases, the four-stage cycle of transient eddy heat and a momentum feedback process exists. Global-scale circulation anomalies are generated due to their forcing on the mean flow. This impact of transient eddies on mean flow is referred to as eddy–eddy feedback, commencing in around 22 days. On a daily scale, the enhancement of rainfall over the Western Ghats and north-western India is linked with upper tropospheric poleward transient eddy heat flux transport and equatorward transient eddy momentum flux transport. On a quasi-biweekly scale, however, the transport direction reverses. Additionally, this rainfall pattern is governed by the meridional passage of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation phases (MISO, tropical mode) and the zonal passage of wave number 7–8 patterns (Rossby wave, extratropical mode). Interactions of tropical–extratropical modes are associated with this eddy –eddy feedback that drives the hemispheric upper-tropospheric circulation patterns. This includes wave generation, propagation, and the dissipation of waves away from the source region. The hindcast skill analysis of subseasonal to seasonal scale models, namely Extended Range Prediction Application to Society (ERPAS) and Global Seasonal Forecast version 5 (GloSea5), shows that the models can predict northern Indian rainfall associated with eddy–mean flow interactions at 1-week lead times. After a week, the skill of both models diminishes under the influence of transient eddy transport. The monsoon circulation is more consistent and predictable in both models when transient eddies are absent. A theoretical understanding of the dynamical feedback of upper-tropospheric transient eddies is crucial for improving rainfall prediction.
大气中的短暂涡旋是短暂的,在中纬度地区明显的移动扰动。瞬态涡旋输送使温带和热带地区之间的质量、能量和水分交换成为可能。根据观测,印度北部夏季季风期间大约40%的降雨受到瞬态涡旋热和动量通量的影响。在这些降雨过程中,存在四阶段的瞬态涡热循环和动量反馈过程。全球尺度的环流异常是由于它们对平均气流的强迫作用而产生的。这种瞬时涡流对平均流量的影响被称为涡流-涡流反馈,大约在22天内开始。在日尺度上,西高止山脉和印度西北部的降雨增强与对流层上层向极地的瞬变涡旋热通量输送和向赤道的瞬变涡旋动量通量输送有关。然而,在准两周的尺度上,运输方向相反。此外,这种降雨模式受经向季风季内振荡相(MISO,热带模态)和纬向7-8波型(rosby波,温带模态)的影响。热带-温带模式的相互作用与驱动半球对流层上层环流模式的涡旋-涡旋反馈有关。这包括波的产生、传播和波远离震源区域的耗散。对亚季节到季节尺度模式,即ERPAS (Extended Range Prediction Application to Society)和GloSea5 (Global seasonal Forecast version 5)的后播技能分析表明,这些模式可以预测与涡旋-平均流相互作用相关的印度北部降雨,提前1周。一周后,在瞬态涡旋输送的影响下,两种模式的技能都有所降低。当瞬态涡旋不存在时,两种模式的季风环流更加一致和可预测。对对流层上层瞬态涡旋动力反馈的理论认识对提高降水预报具有重要意义。
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions