Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"Spatial-temporal evolution and predictive analysis of carbon effect efficiency in farmland in Jiangsu Province, China.","authors":"Xiaowen Wang, Bowen Yu, Jueshu Wang, Song Hao, Zhen Zheng","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00452-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00452-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since the Industrial Revolution, the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases have posed unprecedented challenges to sustainable human development. As one of the most vital terrestrial ecosystems, farmland ecosystems play an irreplaceable role in balancing carbon emissions and absorption, attracting growing scholarly attention. Taking Jiangsu Province, one of China's major grain-producing regions, as the study area, this research integrates the Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model, the entropy-weighted method, and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of farmland carbon effects-including carbon emissions, carbon absorption, and net carbon sequestration-during 2011-2021. Furthermore, a Grey Prediction Model was employed to forecast the carbon effects of 13 cities over the next 12 years. The results show that Jiangsu's farmland carbon emission efficiency exhibited an overall upward trend with fluctuations, with an average value of 0.76. The multi-year mean fitting degrees of resource input and agricultural output were relatively low, at 0.426 and 0.358, respectively, with substantial intercity differences. The average coupling coordination degree between resource input and agricultural output was 0.66, indicating a primary coordination state. The constructed GM (1,1) model achieved a qualification rate exceeding 73.80%, demonstrating its reliability for predicting farmland carbon effects. Forecasts suggest a potential weakening of the province's agricultural carbon sink effect, with the net carbon sequestration in 2033 expected to decline by 15.55% compared with the maximum value during the observation period. This study reveals the spatiotemporal characteristics and potential evolution patterns of farmland carbon effects, providing theoretical support for region-specific agricultural emission reduction policies and promoting the sustainable development of efficient, low-carbon agriculture.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147832039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of carbon emission trading pilot policy on China's energy eco-efficiency.","authors":"Liandi Zhang, Shenglin Ma, Yiyao Dai, Wenguang Tang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00451-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00451-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Under the \"Dual Carbon\" goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), China's Carbon Emissions Trading System (CETS) represents a key policy tool in addressing climate change, significantly contributing to carbon reduction and the enhancement of Energy Eco-Efficiency (EEE). As a comprehensive measure of coordination within the \"energy-economy-environment\" system, EEE effectively captures a country's or region's ability to harmonize energy consumption, green and sustainable development, and environmental protection. This study computes the EEE index using the SBM model and examines how a carbon emission trading pilot policy (CETPP) affects EEE in China and its spatial spillover by employing a difference-in-differences (DID) model and spatial econometric model. The results indicate that CETPP implementation significantly enhances regional EEE and advances China's green and low-carbon transition process by improving the balance between economic and environmental goals, increasing employment, diversifying the energy supply, and strengthening economic resilience. Mechanistic research reveals that the CETPP promotes the improvement of EEE by reducing pollution emission intensity and that regional innovation ability can enhance the positive impact of the CETPP on regional EEE. Further analysis revealed significant endogenous spatial interactions in EEE across Chinese regions. However, EEE in the eastern and western regions can create a \"siphon\" effect on production factors that hinders development in neighbouring areas. Implementing a CETPP in a region not only advances local EEE but also stimulates EEE improvements in adjacent areas, with the strongest spillover effect observed in eastern China. To this end, it is essential to enhance the management of carbon dioxide emissions, actively advance the establishment of carbon trading markets. Moreover, region-specific measures should be implemented to promote the coordinated improvement of regional EEE.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147832023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of phenological shifts on carbon uptake across major terrestrial biomes.","authors":"Getachew Mehabie Mulualem, Jadunandan Dash","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00450-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00450-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Changes in climate are altering plant growth patterns and associated phenological events like the Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), and Length of the Growing Season (LGS). However, there is limited research quantifying the impact of these changes on key vegetation-atmospheric interaction processes such as the carbon and water cycles. This study uses 914 site years of data across 132 flux tower sites in the FLUXNET2015 dataset to explore the relationships between carbon sequestration, expressed by Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), and multiple phenological variables, including LGS, changes in SOS (ΔSOS), and changes in EOS (ΔEOS). LGS explains 23% of the variability in GPP across all sites. Significant correlations were found in deciduous broadleaf forests (R² = 0.5) and evergreen needleleaf forests (R² = 0.44), while ecosystems such as shrublands, savannas, and wetlands displayed weaker connections. Changes in the SOS also affected GPP, with an earlier SOS increasing the total annual GPP. Deciduous Broadleaf Forests (R² = 0.54), Evergreen Needleleaf Forests (R² = 0.5), Grasslands (R² = 0.47) showed a significant negative association between ΔSOS and ΔGPP, whereas Croplands showed weaker correlations. Conversely, EOS variations had little impact on GPP. Upscaled to global vegetated land area these relationships suggest that each additional day in the growing season could increase carbon uptake by 1.035 Gt C yr^- 1, while an earlier SOS by 0.93 Gt C yr^- 1 and a one-day delay in EOS by approximately 0.65 Gt C yr^- 1. These findings underscore the need to account for seasonal shifts and phenological changes in global carbon models.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147831957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How factor digitalization shapes urban carbon TFP: mechanisms, thresholds, and spillovers in Chinese cities.","authors":"Bao-Jun Tang, Jun-Yu Chen, Chang-Jing Ji","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00448-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00448-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Digitalization and decarbonization are reshaping urban production, yet the relationship between factor-level digitalization and cities' carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) remains underexplored, particularly concerning its mechanisms, boundary conditions, and spatial reach. This study develops a Digitalization Index of Urban Elements (DIUE), encompassing labor, capital, and energy, to examine its association with CTFP in 213 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2023. CTFP is measured using an undesirable-output slacks-based measure, and the empirical analysis employs a two-step system GMM with Windmeijer correction, mediation analysis, spatial-lag models, and dynamic panel threshold tests. Robustness checks utilize an alternative productivity index and a difference-in-differences design based on early smart-city pilots. Three key findings emerge. First, factor-level digitalization is positively associated with urban CTFP; a one-standard-deviation increase in DIUE corresponds to a 1.5-1.7% increase in CTFP, which accumulates to approximately 4% in the long run. Second, this relationship is primarily mediated by green innovation, accounting for approximately 47% of the mediated effect, while industrial upgrading and agglomeration provide additional support, accounting for about 24% and 6%, respectively. Third, the benefits of digitalization exhibit both spatial spillovers and conditional effects: the indirect spillover effect constitutes roughly one-third of the direct effect, and positive gains are more pronounced in contexts with lower labor and capital misallocation and stronger local low-carbon commitment. By integrating a transparent and replicable measure of factor digitalization with evidence on its underlying mechanisms, spatial spillovers, and activation thresholds, this study clarifies the conditions under which digitalization can be effectively translated into enhanced carbon productivity. The policy implication is that cities should complement digital investment with measures to reduce factor misallocation, strengthen low-carbon commitment, and foster innovation.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation and control of regional construction land expansion incorporating carbon emissions.","authors":"Zhiyuan Wang, Fan Wu, Zhengxuan Liu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00433-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00433-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As a major contributor to carbon emissions among various land-use types, the expansion and spatial distribution of construction land are critical factors in regional carbon management strategies. Although considerable research has independently examined construction land growth control and regional carbon emission assessments, few studies have integrated these aspects to guide construction land expansion within the framework of carbon peaking strategies. This study proposes an innovative framework that integrates carbon emission considerations into the management of regional construction land expansion. Using Changsha City as a case study, this research analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of construction land expansion and associated carbon emissions from 1990 to 2020, exploring their interdependencies. To project future trends, three scenarios-natural growth, high-emission expansion, and low-emission development-were developed to simulate the impacts of construction land changes on carbon emissions by 2030. The study evaluates the carbon emission consequences of urban expansion and proposes mitigation strategies within a low-carbon development framework. The findings indicate that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, construction land in Changsha City expanded by 660.24 km², primarily encroaching upon adjacent cultivated and forested lands. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 1.3963 × 10⁸ t, showing a strong positive correlation with construction land expansion; (2) By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to reach 2.396 × 10⁸ t, 2.582 × 10⁸ t, and 1.639 × 10⁸ t under the natural growth, high-emission, and low-emission scenarios, respectively, reflecting increases of 53.21%, 65.11%, and 4.81% relative to 2020 levels; (3) Under both the natural growth and high-emission scenarios, construction land expansion is likely to intensify its adverse impact on the regional ecosystem, thereby reducing ecological stability. In contrast, the low-emission development scenario is projected to promote significant improvements in ecosystem health and resilience. This study offers critical insights for territorial spatial planning and construction land management within the context of the dual-carbon strategy, presenting a viable pathway for reconciling land expansion with ecological sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inter-provincial water-energy-carbon transfer and its efficiency in China: the perspective of land use.","authors":"Chen Cai, Rongqin Zhao, Hanbing Li, Liangang Xiao, Zhixiang Xie, Wei Wu, Jiayu Ji, Qianhu Xiao","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00444-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00444-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Revealing inter-regional water-energy-carbon transfer driven by land use has great significance for realizing multiple objectives of resource collaborative optimization and carbon mitigation, yet land-use WEC accounting at the provincial scale and the efficiency of inter-regional WEC transfer driven by embodied land flow remain insufficiently explored in China. Accordingly, a theoretical framework for water-energy-carbon accounting and inter-regional transfer based on land use was established. Then the water and energy use and carbon emissions of cropland, forest land, grassland, water area, and construction land in 30 Chinese provinces were estimated and their spatial-temporal patterns were analyzed. The efficiency and spatial characteristics of inter-provincial water-energy-carbon transfer driven by embodied land flow were discussed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results showed that the land-use water consumption was relatively stable from 2005 to 2020, while land-use energy consumption and carbon emissions exhibited an increasing trend. Embodied land mainly flowed from underdeveloped areas to developed areas, and there was regional variability in the related water-energy-carbon transfer. The energy-carbon transfer patterns driven by embodied land flow were similar. Embodied land consumption was concentrated in cropland, forest land, and grassland. Water consumption driven by embodied land flow was primarily concentrated in cropland. Energy consumption and carbon emissions driven by embodied land flow were mainly concentrated in construction land. Generally, the embodied land flow-related water-energy-carbon transfer efficiency has improved, with the proportion of efficient transfer increasing by 2.03%, 2.08%, and 2.82%, respectively. Water transfer between different land use types was more efficient than energy-carbon transfer, and water-energy-carbon transfer associated with construction land was inefficient.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Water-energy-carbon transfer driven by embodied land flow could alleviate resource and environmental pressures, while its efficiency could still be enhanced. Therefore, in the future, land resource allocation should be optimized based on regional coordination and integrated water-energy-carbon management to enhance the efficiency of cross-regional water-energy-carbon transfer, thereby achieving efficient resource utilization and environmental sustainability. Overall, this study provides quantitative evidence for the resource and environmental impacts of cross-regional land resource allocation and offers new insights for synergistic resource optimization from a remote coupling perspective.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the network structure characteristics and driving factors of carbon-emission spillovers in the greater bay area of China: a coupled multi-scenario analytical framework.","authors":"Zhigang Li, Jiapei Tan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00445-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00445-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing low-carbon economies in the Persian Gulf: the role of clean energy, industry 4.0, and fintech.","authors":"Zilian Li, Guixian Tian, Bakhtawer Ayub, Shagufta Tariq Khan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00435-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00435-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate warming effect of disposal fates of harvested wood products.","authors":"Michael T Ter-Mikaelian, Sabrina M Desjardins, Jiaxin Chen","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00442-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00442-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The objective of this research was to understand how the long-term climate warming effect of harvested wood products (HWP) changed as the proportional distribution of disposed products across three primary pathways (incineration, recycling, and landfilling) varied while accounting for the possibility of multiple recycling steps. The climate warming effect is defined as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the disposal of carbon content in HWP, not including emissions from processing the disposed HWP and substitution effects. Emissions were estimated over 100 years from the year of the original HWP disposal. For solid HWP, the climate warming effect decreased, for any given recycling fraction, as the landfill fraction decreased. The opposite, however, occurred for paper HWP. Recycling reduced the climate warming effect of solid HWP by \"pushing\" some of the emissions outside of the assessment period. For paper HWP, recycling did not change the climate warming effect unless the assessment period was relatively short. These findings can be used to assess the effect of a given combination of disposal fates of HWP, including the final disposal of non-recyclable HWP, and indicate whether it exceeds the effect of instantaneously releasing the HWP carbon content as CO₂.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The contribution of planted forests to regional carbon storage: evidence from western Hunan, China (1990-2020).","authors":"Ting Deng, Yulin Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00443-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00443-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147728036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}