Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"Regional carbon emission reduction potential estimation based on scenario analysis under emission standards","authors":"Xuwei Xia,&nbsp;Zhibin Yan,&nbsp;Shuang Zhang,&nbsp;Dongge Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00326-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00326-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The estimation of carbon emission reduction potential in existing regions often faces the problem of missing data, so scenario analysis based estimation research is carried out. Under the constraints of emission standards, three emission limit scenarios are set: maintaining, ultra-low, and tightening. Based on the SBM model, a carbon emission reduction potential index model is constructed using the full factor carbon emission efficiency measurement method. Build a model that considers the impact of industrial output value and estimate carbon emission rights from 2018 to 2030. After analysis and calculation of allocation weights, experiments show that carbon emission performance is less than 0.05, efficiency is improved, weight is about 4.64%, and industrial carbon emissions contribute nearly zero.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00326-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145197582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Defining the relationship between bulk density and organic carbon content in forest soils using generalised linear mixed-effect models","authors":"Aleš Kučera,&nbsp;Dušan Vavříček,&nbsp;Karel Drápela,&nbsp;Václav Zouhar,&nbsp;Michal Friedl,&nbsp;Valerie Vranová","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00298-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00298-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>In this study, we used a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMER) to establish a predictive pedotransfer function defining the relationship between forest soil bulk density and total organic carbon. More than 950 soil samples were obtained from four forested areas with a wide range of bedrock (limestone, loess, crystalline volcanic, sandstone, alluvial loam, polygenic loam and transported materials rich in organic carbon) and soil types (Leptosols, Cambisols, Fluvisols, Podzols and Technosols). Model validation was performed by testing against 10% of the data randomly selected from the original dataset (10% dataset) and an independent dataset from the Czech national forest inventory (NFI2 dataset).</p><h3>Result</h3><p>The GLMER including sample origin locality as random effect displayed a highly accurate predictive capacity. Subsequent analysis avoided model simplification by excluding sample origin and retaining the global GLMER only. For all samples, the final model covered a range from 0.16 to 27.70% for total organic carbon and from 0.27 to 1.94 g cm^− 3 for bulk density. Model residuals based on laboratory values were symmetrical with a median value just 0.09 g cm^− 3 higher. While validation with the 10% dataset confirmed model parameter validity with high accuracy, validation using the NFI2 dataset indicated slight discrepancies, possibly due to differences in sampling method used. Individual GLMs fitted both validation datasets better than the global GLMER; however, Wilcoxon tests showed better consistency in the original model on the 10% validation data. Consequently, we suggest the global GLMER may prove more suitable for direct use in expressing bulk density from total organic carbon.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The pedotransfer functions produced, particularly that based on global GLMER, can be used to express bulk density via total organic carbon content, or vice versa, with high accuracy. While based on a wide range of bedrock/soil types, further studies may be needed in other regions to validate the model for general application.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00298-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145197589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of high-speed rail opening on the site selection of renewable energy enterprises: empirical evidence from China","authors":"Wenjun Han,&nbsp;Xianhua Wu,&nbsp;Yiting Wang,&nbsp;Shiyun Huang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00321-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00321-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>High-speed rail is a crucial transportation infrastructure in China and has a significant impact on the location choice of renewable energy enterprises. However, it is unclear how substantial is this impact, and how can it be measured. Research on these topics is quite limited. This study collects the data on various prefecture-level cities in China and their renewable energy enterprises from 2006 to 2020. Using high-speed rail openings as a dummy variable and a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach, this study empirically examines the effect of high-speed rail openings on the site selection of renewable energy enterprises. The findings indicate that: (1) The coefficient for the impact of high-speed rail openings on the site selection of renewable energy enterprises is significantly positive, suggesting that high-speed rail policies facilitate cites’ acceptance of these enterprises; (2) There is a regional imbalance in the site selection for renewable energy enterprises, with economically developed cities showing greater receptivity; (3) Cities with higher waste treatment rates tend to attract more renewable energy enterprises.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00321-4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144897121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of agritech on sustainable agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantile regression approach towards SDG 2.4","authors":"Barış Kantoğlu,&nbsp;Meral Çabaş,&nbsp;Azad Erdem,&nbsp;Abdulmuttalip Pilatin,&nbsp;Abdulkadir Barut,&nbsp;Magdalena Radulescu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00313-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00313-4","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions on the planet threaten both food security and climate change. The United Nations is calling for food security and sustainable agriculture to end hunger by 2030. Sustainable Development Goal 2.4 addresses resilient agricultural practices to combat climate change and produce sustainable food. Resilient agricultural practices are only possible with agricultural technologies (AgriTech) that will create a digital transformation in agriculture. AgriTech can meet the increasing food demand by increasing production efficiency while increasing resource efficiency by combating problems such as climate change and water scarcity. The aim of this study is to examine the impacts of AgriTech usage on sustainable agriculture in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The analyses were conducted using panel data from 20 SSA countries between 2000 and 2022. In this study, MMQR (Method of Moments Quantile Regression) provided consistent results across quantiles in variable interactions, while GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) and KRLS (Kernel Regularized Least Squares Method) approaches were used to ensure consistency of results. The findings confirm that AgriTech (ATECH) and agricultural value added (AGRW) contribute significantly to sustainable agriculture in SSA countries. The coefficients of ATECH and AGRW variables are negative and statistically significant in all quantiles. This shows that when AgriTech use and agricultural value added increase in SSA, emissions from agriculture decrease and the environment improves. However, agricultural credits (ACRD) are insufficient to reduce agricultural emissions. Furthermore, agricultural workers (AEMP) and internet use (INT) help reduce agricultural emissions up to the 60th and 50th quantiles, while this effect disappears at higher quantile levels. These results emphasize the importance of integrating green procurement and green production technologies supported by green credits into agricultural production in order to achieve sustainable agricultural development goals in SSA. Policies that facilitate farmers’ access to agricultural green credits should be adopted in SSA societies. Infrastructure works that will increase farmers’ access to the internet should be increased. Awareness of agricultural workers on green production and sustainability should be provided to agricultural workers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Highlights.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;\u0000 &lt;li&gt;\u0000 &lt;p&gt;The results show that agricultural technologies, agricultural growth, agricultural labor, and internet use reduce agricultural emissions in SSAcountries, while credit use increases agricultural emissions.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/li&gt;\u0000 &lt;li&gt;\u0000 &lt;p&gt;AgriTech use (ATECH) and agricultural value-added (AGRW) have statistically significant negative coefficients in all quantiles, indicating that increasing AgriTech and value-added reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/li&gt;\u0000 ","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00313-4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of grazing management practices, topographic position, and land cover type on soil organic carbon fractions in semi-arid rangelands of Kenya","authors":"A. N. Gitau,&nbsp;S. M. Mureithi,&nbsp;S. Mwendwa,&nbsp;R. N. Onwonga,&nbsp;J. S. Mbau,&nbsp;J. Chepkemoi,&nbsp;S. Kiama","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00319-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00319-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>This study evaluated the effects of grazing management practices, topographic position, and land cover types on mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) in a semi-arid rangeland of Kenya. Research was conducted at Mpala Research Centre (controlled grazing) and Ilmotiok Community Group Ranch (continuous grazing) in Laikipia County. A factorial experimental design with a split-plot arrangement was used in this study. Grazing management practices (controlled and continuous grazing) and topographic positions (midslope, foot slope, and bottomland) were assigned to the main plots, while land cover types (bare ground, grass patches, and tree mosaics) were designated as subplots. Soil samples were collected at 10 cm intervals, 0–10 cm, 10–20 cm, and 20–30 cm depth for MAOC and POC analysis. Data analysis was done using R software, where nonparametric tests were done when the assumptions of normality and homogeneity of variance were violated.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Controlled grazing resulted in higher MAOC (0.361%) and POC (0.683%) compared to continuous grazing (0.352% and 0.548%, respectively), indicating an increase of 2.56% in MAOC and 24.64% in POC under controlled grazing. This can largely be attributed to improved vegetation recovery, especially in midslope areas. The highest MAOC (0.367%) was found in the bottomland, likely due to reduced erosion and improved water retention. The midslope and foot slope positions had lower MAOC means of 0.358% and 0.344%, respectively. Depth analysis showed peak MAOC at 20 cm (0.390%), with controlled grazing resulting in better carbon retention at 30 cm. Similarly, controlled grazing yielded a mean POC of 0.683% versus 0.548% for continuous grazing, with bottomland having the highest POC of 0.754%. A Kruskal‒Wallis tests showed significant differences in MAOC and POC across land cover types (χ² = 42.701, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001 for MAOC, and χ² = 83.53, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001 for POC), with tree mosaics and bare land contributing most to POC and MAOC, respectively.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>These findings highlight the beneficial role of controlled grazing and diverse land cover in enhancing soil carbon storage. To promote sustainable rangeland management, it is recommended that rangeland managers adopt controlled grazing practices and allow diverse land cover types, such as tree mosaics, to increase carbon sequestration and ecosystem resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00319-y","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geochemical modeling of CO2 emissions from volcanic soil microseepage: implications for greenhouse gas budget","authors":"Xianzhe Duan,&nbsp;Haoran Sun,&nbsp;Nan Li,&nbsp;Jiale Dou","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00320-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00320-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>As the global greenhouse effect intensifies, the emission and balance of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂), have become crucial for achieving global carbon neutrality. Volcanic geothermal regions, as major natural sources of carbon emissions, release substantial volume of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in various ways including volcanic eruptions, soil microseepages, vents, and hot springs. Among these, soil microseepages are particularly important due to their widespread and persistent nature. However, the geochemical dynamics of CO₂ release from soil microseepage in volcanic regions remain poorly understood. In this study, we propose a novel CO₂ release model employing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to model CO₂ emissions from soil microseepage in volcanic regions. Our results provide important insights as follows: (1) Low porosity in subsurface strata inhibits CO₂ penetration, while well-developed underground cracks and channels enhance release rates. (2) Favorable gas pathways enable CO₂ to penetrate dense layers, and migrate upward, with migration patterns influenced by gas source pressure, temperature, and soil permeability. Slowing vertical migration increases horizontal diffusion and expands the effective surface release area. (3) Surface release is also influenced by external factors like wind speed, though these do not significantly affect underground seepage. (4) To improve the accuracy of CO₂ flux measurements using the closed chamber method, it is recommended to reverse the initial slope of the CO₂ concentration-time curve. This study provides critical data to enhance global carbon budget assessments and support efforts towards carbon neutrality.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00320-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is the global causality between geopolitical risks, government governance, and energy transition? Empirical evidence from cross-country data","authors":"Haijie Wang,&nbsp;Tianyi Zhang,&nbsp;Zhenhua Zhang,&nbsp;Yanchao Feng","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00322-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00322-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Amid profound shifts in the global energy landscape, increasing attention is being paid to the causal relationships among geopolitical risks, government governance, and energy transition. Based on data covering 39 countries from 2002 to 2020, this study explores the long-term causal relationships between geopolitical risks, governance quality, and energy transition. The analysis applies cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity tests, the CADF unit root test, second-generation cointegration methods, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation, Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), and Granger causality tests. The results yield three key findings. Firstly, governance quality is negatively associated with energy transition, while geopolitical risks have a positive effect. Secondly, MMQR shows that these effects are more pronounced at higher quantiles of the energy transition distribution, meaning countries further along in the transition process are more responsive to changes in governance and geopolitical conditions. Thirdly, heterogeneity tests indicate that geopolitical risks exhibit a more pronounced long-term positive contribution to energy transition in economically high-growth and highly urbanized countries. These findings challenge dominant assumptions in the literature, particularly the presumed uniformly positive role of governance. The results suggest that the influence of governance and geopolitical risks on energy transition is context-dependent and nonlinear. This study provides new empirical evidence and theoretical insights to inform energy policy under geopolitical uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00322-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the global flux of organic carbon transported from terrestrial surfaces to oceans by rivers","authors":"Fei Chen,&nbsp;Xiaoyong Bai,&nbsp;Guangjie Luo,&nbsp;Guangying Zhang,&nbsp;Chen Ran,&nbsp;Xuling Luo","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00318-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00318-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The magnitude and distribution of organic carbon (OC) transport from the terrestrial surface to the oceans is not well understood on a global scale. This hinders our understanding of terrestrial and marine carbon cycles. In this study, we determined the characteristics of OC flux. Our results showed that approximately 420 Tg C/yr of OC are transported from the terrestrial surface to the oceans, including 220 Tg C/yr of particulate organic carbon (POC) and 200 Tg C/yr of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Asia, with only 32.46% of the basin area, accounts for 57.65% of the total POC flux, while North America, with only 17.52% of the basin area, accounts for 37.51% of DOC flux. Of these, the Pacific receives 48% of the total POC flux, and the Atlantic receives 46% of the total DOC flux. Five key zones are diagnosed and identified, in which latitudes between 5° N and 20° S contributed 72.76% of the global OC flux. Such insights directly reveal global riverine OC flux, which helps us to comprehensively understand the terrestrial and marine carbon cycles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00318-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconciling ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches through ecological compensation in the Tibetan plateau","authors":"Wenjie Yao,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Wang,&nbsp;Zixu Jia,&nbsp;Xiaoxue Wang,&nbsp;Xinrong Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaoming Feng,&nbsp;Jitao Zhou,&nbsp;Jiahao Ma,&nbsp;You Tu,&nbsp;Xueren Liu,&nbsp;Zechong Sun","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00325-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00325-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurately identifying ecological compensation (EC) regions and establishing clear compensation criteria are essential for promoting carbon sequestration, mitigating ecological degradation, and supporting equitable resource allocation. In this study, ecological modeling combined with hotspot analysis was applied to quantify the spatial mismatch between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 2020. We introduced the concept of comparative ecological radiation force (CERF) to characterize the spatial flow of ESs and to estimate the total compensation required to balance these flows. Our results highlight that the value of carbon sequestration, represented by net primary production (NPP), reached 1.21 × 10⁶ CNY, alongside other key services such as soil conservation (SC) (284.69 × 10⁶ CNY), water yield (WY) (44.99 × 10⁶ CNY) and food supply (FS) (20.81 × 10⁶ CNY). The directional analysis of service flows revealed that NPP, along with SC and WY, predominantly flowed from east to west, while FS exhibited a north-to-south pattern. Notably, NPP received only 0.16% of the total ecological compensation, in contrast to 95.42% for SC, 4.21% for WY, and 0.21% for FS. This study provides an integrated framework for aligning EC strategies with carbon management goals, offering insights to support carbon neutrality efforts and ecosystem restoration on the TP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00325-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lifting the profile of deep soil carbon in New Zealand’s managed planted forests","authors":"Loretta G. Garrett,&nbsp;Katherine A. Heckman,&nbsp;Angela R. Possinger,&nbsp;Brian D. Strahm,&nbsp;Jeff A. Hatten,&nbsp;Fiona P. Fields,&nbsp;Steve A. Wakelin","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Forest soils are a globally significant carbon-store, including in deep layers (&gt; 30 cm depth). However, there is high uncertainty regarding the response of deep soil organic carbon (DSOC) to climate change and the resulting impact on the total OC budget for forest ecosystems. Managed forests have an opportunity to reduce the risk of DSOC loss with climate change, however, the basic understanding of DSOC is lacking. Planted forests in New Zealand are managed with very limited knowledge of DSOC, both in the amount and the capacity of the soil to continue to store carbon with climate change. In this study, we explore DSOC stocks to at least 2 m depth at 15 planted forest sties in New Zealand. We also explore DSOC radiocarbon age and soil mineralogy, then contextualise our results within international SOC datasets and climate change vulnerability frameworks to identify research priorities for New Zealand’s planted forest soils.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>DSOC stocks and soil mineralogy in New Zealand’s planted forests were diverse both horizontally across soil types and vertically throughout the soil profile. Critically, limiting measurements of SOC to the top 30 cm misses more than half of the SOC stocks present to at least 2 m depth (mean 57%; range 33–72%). At depth, mineral-associated OC was the dominant fraction of DSOC (average &gt; 90%) and was on average much older (&gt; 1000 years) than the current planted forest land use (&lt; 100 years).</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This small case study highlights that New Zealand’s planted forests contain substantial stocks of DSOC, much of which is older than the current forest land use. The deep soils were dominated by reactive metals, and although the age of DSOC suggest long-term stability, the large contribution of reactive metal-mediated SOC stabilisation may indicate vulnerability to warming soil temperatures relative to other climate change factors. There is a pressing need to expand soil sampling to greater depths and establish a robust SOC baseline for New Zealand’s planted forests. This is essential for enabling spatial predictions of DSOC dynamics under future climate scenarios, identify the key controls on DSOC persistence, and concomitant impacts on forest ecosystem function and resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144832103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}