Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"Model error propagation in a compatible tree volume, biomass, and carbon prediction system.","authors":"James A Westfall, Philip J Radtke, David M Walker, John W Coulston","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00303-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00303-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Individual tree attributes such as volume, biomass and carbon mass are widely known to be highly correlated. As these attributes are typically predicted from statistical models, frameworks that provide compatible relationships among these attributes are usually preferred over approaches that provide independent predictions. However, the propagation of model error can be a concern as this compatibility often relies on predictions for one attribute providing the basis for other attributes. In this study, a compatible tree volume, biomass, and carbon prediction system was evaluated to ascertain how model prediction uncertainty propagates through the system and to examine the contribution to uncertainty in population estimates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Generally, the total and merchantable stem volume predictions are used to derive associated biomass values and subsequently biomass is converted to carbon. As expected, the amount of uncertainty due to the models follows volume < biomass < carbon such that the carbon attribute is the most affected by error propagation. Biomass and associated carbon in tree branches tended to have larger model uncertainty than the stem components due to smaller sample sizes and a greater proportion of unexplained variation. In this model system, direct predictions of whole tree biomass provide the biomass basis and stem and branch components are harmonized to sum to the whole tree value. Corresponding harmonized carbon content values are obtained through application of a common carbon fraction. As such, whole tree biomass and carbon tended to have less model uncertainty than the constituent components primarily due to fewer contributing sources.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although a wide range of outcomes are realized across the various volume, biomass, and carbon components, increases in the standard error of the population estimate due to model uncertainty were always less than 5% and usually smaller than 3%. Thus, forest inventory data users desiring population estimates of tree volume, biomass, and carbon can expect little additional uncertainty due to the prediction model system while benefitting from the implicit compatibility among attributes.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"14"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12153174/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144265009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon reduction strategies for logistics based on emission prediction under multi-scenarios in coastal developed region.","authors":"Junyu Chen, Yan Zhu, Shengnan Wu, Chuanming Yang, Huimin Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00295-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00295-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The differences in logistics carbon emission and carbon absorption in different areas lead to potential conflicts in the green development of regional logistics. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China is a critical coastal developed region for economic integration development and opening up, with logistics playing a substantial role in energy consumption and carbon emissions. Therefore, addressing the low-carbon transformation of logistics in the YRD is a matter of great concern. The framework of carbon balance accounting and prediction of logistics consist of 'basic accounting-factor analysis-prediction simulation' is constructed. Then, this study accounts the logistics carbon emissions (LCE) and logistics carbon capacity (LCC) in the four subregions (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui) from 2010 to 2021. Estimates the influencing factors of LCE through the geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR). Then, constructs the prediction model for the logistics carbon balance statue based on System Dynamics (SD) structure under four single-factor scenarios and two cross-factor scenarios from 2022 to 2030. Results showed that: (1) The logistics carbon deficit in the YRD is prominent. And the four sub-regions show different spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. (2) The influences of economic level and technical level on LCE are particularly obvious and also has spatio-temporal heterogeneity. (3) There is a trade-off between the pursuit of economic development and carbon emission control. S1 and S2 will continue to witness the increase of logistics carbon pollution. Under S3-S4, the effect of LCE reduction is relatively weak. S5 shows a significant carbon reduction effect, S6 could achieve a good balance between economic development and carbon emissions. (4) Promote the reform of transportation from highway to railway, ensure access to affordable and clean energy for logistic, promote the coordinated carbon reduction of regional logistics and synchronous construction of ecological and artificial carbon pool based on the conditions of developed coastal areas could be feasible paths to achieve carbon balance for YRD.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"13"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12139084/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TimberTracer: a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of carbon sequestration by forest management and substitution of harvested wood products.","authors":"I Boukhris, A Collalti, S Lahssini, D Dalmonech, F Nakhle, R Testolin, M V Chiriacò, M Santini, R Valentini","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00296-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00296-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Harvested wood products (HWPs) have a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, a recognition solidified in many Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Integrating HWPs' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals into accounting requirements relies on typical decision-oriented tools known as wood product models (WPMs). The study introduces the TimberTracer (TT) framework, designed to simulate HWP carbon stock, substitution effects, and emissions from wood decay and bioenergy.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Coupled with the 3D-CMCC-FEM forest growth model, TimberTracer was applied to Laricio Pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) in Italy's Bonis watershed, evaluating three forest management practices (clearcut, selective thinning, and shelterwood) and four wood-use scenarios (business as usual, increased recycling rate, extended average lifespan, and a simultaneous increase in both the recycling rate and the average lifespan) over a 140 year planning horizon, to assess the overall carbon balance of HWPs. Furthermore, this study evaluates the consequences of disregarding landfill methane emissions and relying on static substitution factors, assessing their impact on the mitigation potential of various options. This investigation, covering HWPs stock, carbon (C) emissions, and the substitution effect, revealed that selective thinning emerged as the optimal forest management scenario. In addition, a simultaneous 10% increase in both the recycling rate and half-life, under the so-called \"sustainability\" scenario, proved to be the optimal wood-use strategy. Finally, the analysis shows that failing to account for landfill methane emissions and the use of dynamic substitution can significantly overestimate the mitigation potential of various forest management and wood-use options, which underscores the critical importance of a comprehensive accounting in climate mitigation strategies involving HWPs.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our study highlights the critical role of harvested wood products (HWPs) in climate change mitigation, as endorsed by multiple Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Utilizing the TimberTracer framework coupled with the 3D-CMCC-FEM forest growth model, we identified selective thinning as the optimal forest management practice. Additionally, enhancing recycling rates and extending product lifespan effectively bolstered the carbon balance. Moreover, this study emphasizes the necessity of accounting for landfill methane emissions and dynamic product substitution, as failing to do so may significantly overestimate the mitigation potential of implemented projects. These findings offer actionable insights to optimize forest management strategies and advance climate change mitigation efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":"12"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12126877/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144191345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From linear to circular: the impact of economic policies and technological innovations on greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands","authors":"Qamar Abbas,&nbsp;Muhammad Imran,&nbsp;Abdul Sattar","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00297-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00297-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Netherlands, recognized as a leader in promoting circular economy principles, is actively implementing laws, incentives, and public–private collaborations to reduce raw material consumption by minimizing extraction and encouraging sharing and reuse. Emphasizing the durability and extended use of materials and goods is crucial in this transition. This study investigates the long-term and causal impacts of circular economy practices, technological innovation, environmental tax policies, economic instability, and industrialization on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Netherlands, covering the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Employing advanced econometric techniques, including the bounds test of co-integration, autoregressive distributed lag models, wavelet coherence analysis, and gradual shift causality tests, the study reveals that circular economy practices, technological advancements, and environmental taxation significantly reduce GHG emissions in both the short-run and the long-run. Conversely, economic instability and industrialization are found to contribute positively to GHG emissions. The wavelet coherence analysis further highlights the substantial interplay between GHG emissions and the independent variables studied. Based on these findings, the study underscores the need for the Netherlands to intensify efforts in reducing GHG emissions, curbing the use of virgin materials in construction, and investing in recycling technologies to advance its circular economy goals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00297-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144131678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of climate change mitigation strategies for Irish forests using the CBM-CFS3 model","authors":"Kevin Black,&nbsp;Andrew McCullagh,&nbsp;John Redmond,&nbsp;Viorel N. B. Blujdea,&nbsp;Roberto Pilli","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00302-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00302-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The Irish Forestry greenhouse gas (GHG) profile is undergoing a transition from a net sink to net emission because of persisting emissions from organic soils, an increase in harvest and shifts in the age class structure of plantation forests. The forestry GHG trend diverges from the required National and European Union (EU) policy pathway for land use land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture aimed at halving emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. A recalibrated version of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Service (CBM-CFS3) was used to assess the impact of identified national forest policy measures on the forest GHG profile over the short to long term.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>An analysis of projected scenarios revealed that, under current silvicultural practices and afforestation policies (with existing measures—WEMs), Irish forests will continue to be a long-term emission beyond 2070 unless harvest rates and management practices are adjusted to negate the adverse impact of emissions from organic soils and fluctuations in historic afforestation rates. The implementation of additional measures (WAM) suggests that the forest sink can be sustained if harvest rates exceed 75% of the net annual increment (NAI), additional afforestation targets are met and if plantation rotation age is increased. Although additional afforestation and a reduction in deforestation is required to meet long-term carbon–neutral goals, the implementation of these policies has a minimal short-term impact on the 2030 targets set out under the National Climate Change Plan (CAP 24) and the revised EU LULUCF regulation (841/2023).</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The results show that the extension of rotation age and associated reductions in harvest levels will have the greatest short-term impact on climate change mitigation, which can be delivered at a negative marginal abatement cost. However, even if WAM forest measures are implemented, Ireland is unlikely to meet the National and EU LULUCF targets by 2030 because of a decreasing forest sink.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00302-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144100365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The influence of agricultural drought on carbon emissions across the four sub-regions of China","authors":"Tehseen Javed,&nbsp;Zhenhua Wang,&nbsp;Jian Liu,&nbsp;Wenhao Li,&nbsp;Haixia Lin,&nbsp;Pengpeng Chen,&nbsp;Jihong Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00300-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00300-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Vegetation is crucial in carbon sequestration, as it stores soil carbon and biomass. However, agricultural droughts significantly reduce vegetation growth, directly impacting the amount of carbon sequestered through photosynthesis. This study investigates the effects of agricultural drought on carbon emissions across four sub-regions of China, Northwest China, North China, the Qinghai-Tibet region, and South China, from 2001 to 2020. Three remote sensing-based drought indices, the Moisture Anomaly Index (MAI), Vegetation Anomaly Index (VAI), and Temperature Anomaly Index (TAI) were used for drought monitoring. Advanced statistical techniques were employed to explore the relationship between these indices and carbon emissions, including auto-correlation and spatial cross-correlation. The results indicate that temporal variations between carbon emissions and agricultural drought indices exhibit distinct regional patterns. Among the indices, VAI demonstrated the strongest correlation with carbon emissions, with values ranging from <i>r</i> = 0.56 to 0.76. Carbon emissions varied significantly across regions, with the highest recorded in North China, followed by South China, Northwest China, and Qinghai-Tibet regions. Spatial cross-correlation analysis revealed that the highest positive correlation <i>(r</i> &gt; 0.5) between carbon emissions and drought indices was observed in South China, whereas a moderate correlation was found between MAI and carbon emissions in Northwest China. The correlation between VAI and carbon emissions ranged from <i>r</i> = -0.6 to &gt; 0.8. TAI exhibited a positive correlation with carbon emissions in South China, whereas negative correlations were observed in Northwest China and northeast North China. These findings provide valuable insights for mitigating drought-induced carbon emissions and promoting sustainable land management practices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00300-9","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144074003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal-spatial evolution analysis of carbon emission efficiency in the logistics industry of coastal provinces in China based on the super-efficiency SBM model","authors":"Beilei Wang,&nbsp;Meiling Liu,&nbsp;Shan Gao","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00299-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00299-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The logistics industry is a pillar industry of China’s national economic development, and coastal provinces, as the core of China’s economic development, have highly developed logistics industry. However, the rapid development of the logistics industry in China’s coastal provinces is usually accompanied by high carbon emissions. Therefore, improving the carbon emission efficiency of the logistics industry (LCEE) in China’s coastal provinces is one of the main contents to achieve \"China’s dual carbon goals\". Existing research indicates that LCEE is closely related to the efficiency levels of neighboring regions, and its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics are also influenced by the change of neighborhood efficiency. However, less attention has been given to the role of geographic proximity in analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics. Thus, this paper introduces the spatial lag factor into the Markov chain (MC) to obtain the spatial Markov chain (SMC), examining the influence of neighboring provinces’ LCEE on the spatial evolution of the local LCEE in China’s coastal provinces.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The results show that: For most years between 2007 and 2022, in China’s eleven coastal provinces, the LCEE values were less than one. These low LCEE values indicated that the potential for emission reduction had not been fully tapped, and low-carbon development faced significant challenges. The primary obstacle to improving LCEE during the study period was low technical efficiency, and the development of the technology level was crucial for enhancing LCEE. In 2007–2011 and 2015, the spatial distribution of LCEE exhibited significant spatial clustering features. The primary type of spatial clustering was high-high clustering, which indicated there was an obvious trend of regional coordinated development. The LCEE of neighboring provinces influenced the state transition probabilities of their own states, and spatial spillover effects in these provinces were very evident.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This study conducted an in-depth analysis of the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of LCEE in China’s coastal provinces. There are significant differences in LCEE among these provinces. Each province needs to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the logistics industry and improve the LCEE through regional cooperation, technological investment, and targeted policies, so as to promote the sustainable development of the logistics industry in China’s coastal provinces.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00299-z","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143949665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting CO2 emissions in BRICS countries using the grey breakpoint prediction models","authors":"Huiping Wang,&nbsp;Xinge Guo","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00301-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00301-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, three novel grey breakpoint prediction models are proposed based on calculating the development coefficient and grey action of grey prediction models after fuzzy breakpoints, unifying the calculation methods for parameter estimation and the relevant time-response equations, and using the particle swarm optimisation algorithm to optimise the two-stage background values. Finally, the novel grey breakpoint prediction models are used to simulate and forecast the CO₂ emissions in BRICS countries. We can see that by setting time breakpoints and fuzzy breakpoint intervals, the novel methods successfully detect abrupt changes in the system and achieve accurate predictions, thus improving the accuracy and applicability of the grey model. The new grey breakpoint prediction models demonstrate better estimation in all cases in CO₂ emissions forecasting. The projections show that between 2022 and 2025, CO₂ emissions in Brazil and South Africa will decrease each year, while CO₂ emissions in China, Russia and India will increase each year, but the upwards trend in India shows signs of slowing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00301-8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crop rotation and the impact on soil carbon in the U.S. Corn Belt","authors":"Yining Wu,&nbsp;Eric C. Davis,&nbsp;Brent L. Sohngen","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00293-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00293-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Soils are receiving increasing attention as carbon sinks that can reduce atmospheric CO₂. While common Best Management Practices (BMP), such as cover crops, reduced or minimum tillage, and advanced nutrient management, have been considered as alternatives to build soil carbon storage in managed crop fields, crop-species choices have often been overlooked. This paper uses the Rapid Carbon Assessment (RaCA) data from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), to examine how the rotation of two of the most widely used crops in the U.S., corn and soybeans, influences Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) stocks. We show that at the depths of 0 to 100 cm, corn is correlated with a higher level of SOC stocks than soybeans, and the more years that corn is cultivated the higher the SOC stocks. Specifically, an additional year of corn planted every 3 years is estimated to increase SOC stocks at depths of 0 to 100 cm by 25.1%. Based on our analysis, were all the land in the U.S. states of Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, and Illinois that are currently either mono-cropped with soybeans or follow some sort of soybean-corn rotation converted to corn mono-cropping, the estimated gain in SOC would be 896.7 million Mg C (1 Megagram = 1 ton). This represents a theoretical upper limit for SOC improvements. If current rotational practices were shifted such that corn was planted in 2 of every 3 years in the same region, the theoretical increase in SOC stocks is estimated to be 172.9 million Mg C. Multiplying this result by a Social Cost of Carbon priced at $678/t C in 2020 U.S. dollars (Rennert et al. in Nature 610:687–692, 2022), the total benefits are estimated at $117 billion.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00293-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets","authors":"Eric C. Davis,&nbsp;Maros Ivanic,&nbsp;Brent Sohngen","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00291-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00291-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The projected growth in population and incomes is expected to create pressure to convert forestland into farmland. At the same time, the increasingly negative climate impacts are expected to generate further pressure to enhance the terrestrial carbon sink. Even though these goals are incompatible as reversing the deforestation trend by afforesting cropland would result in negative market impacts such as higher food prices, using the GTAP and GTM models, we find that these impacts would be relatively small if the goal of preserving 144.2 million hectares of forestland that otherwise would be converted to agricultural land by 2033 is achieved through a tax on land use in agricultural production. As to the economic price for doing so, the avoided deforestation would in most regions of the world result in less agricultural output and higher market prices. This is estimated to impact the well-being of global consumers by $119.7 billion, which translates to a global average cost of $13.78 per person in 2033.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00291-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143612327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}