Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"Decarbonization process and productivity convergence: a global analysis of carbon total factor productivity","authors":"Jing Liu,&nbsp;Jianing Zhang,&nbsp;Dengfeng Cui","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>In the context of mitigating global warming and promoting sustainable development, the scientific and effective assessment of the global carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) is essential for slowing global warming and fostering green transformation and coordinated development at both the global and regional levels.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>This study constructs a CTFP evaluation index system and, for the first time, employs the SBM-DDF-GML productivity index model to measure the CTFP of 137 countries worldwide from 1991 to 2019. This model combines a directional distance function with the global Malmquist–Luenberger index to achieve precision in efficiency measurement and intertemporal comparability. It effectively resolves the problems of estimation bias and time dimension inconsistency caused by the radial assumption in traditional radial models. The spatial characteristics, regional disparities, and sources of these disparities in the CTFP are examined using ArcGIS and the Dagum Gini coefficient method. The <i>σ</i>-convergence and <i>β</i>-convergence models are used to investigate the influencing factors and convergence characteristics of the CTFP.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The findings reveal that (1) the global CTFP exhibited an overall upward trend with fluctuations over the sample period, with technological progress being the primary driving force. (2) There are significant gradient disparities in the global CTFP, primarily stemming from supervariable density, followed by intraregional and interregional differences, and these disparities are expanding. (3) While there is no evident <i>σ</i>-convergence in the global CTFP and CTFP of the four major regions, there are significant absolute and conditional <i>β</i>-convergence trends.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Based on the research results, this paper proposes specific strategies to promote the global development of CTFP. These include strengthening technology R&amp;D to improve CTFP, encouraging regional convergence to reduce development disparities, and enhancing the dynamic monitoring and evaluation system to foster growth and equity. This study provides empirical support and a decision-making basis for the coordinated development of the global economy and environment, contributing to advancing global green, low-carbon, and sustainable development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144832205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life cycle emissions associated with vault storage of wood cleared for fire management in the Western United States","authors":"Declan Johnson,&nbsp;Jimmy Voorhis,&nbsp;Stephen Porder","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00309-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00309-0","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;span&gt;AbstractSection&lt;/span&gt;\u0000 Background\u0000 &lt;p&gt;Climate change, fire suppression, and human encroachment contribute to increasingly intense forest fires in the Western United States, releasing hundreds of millions of metric tons (MMT) CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;/year. Proactive fire-risk reduction treatments coordinated by the US Forest Service (USFS) typically include thinning and burning (or in situ decay) of thinned products and may require thinning on ~ 28 million hectares of public and private land over the next decade. Assuming thinning of only small (~ 30 cm diameter) trees within 0.8 km of existing roads on slopes gentler than a 40% grade, this will produce ~ 1,100 MMT of thinned wood, which, if burned or left to decay, will release ~ 2000 MMT CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. Here we evaluate the life cycle emissions of an alternative fate, burial in anoxic wood vaults. We performed a life cycle analysis (LCA) to assess potential net emissions reductions, considering site clearing, transport, site preparation and post-burial decay. We used Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate emissions uncertainty and identify key parameters influencing carbon removal efficiency.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;span&gt;AbstractSection&lt;/span&gt;\u0000 Results\u0000 &lt;p&gt;We find wood vaults will decrease emissions relative to current practice by a mean of 66% if wood is transported 100 km, and by 38% at a transport distance of 500 km. If the USFS is able to implement the proposed Wildfire Crisis Strategy, and all of the wood from thinning were buried in wood vaults within 100–500 km of the thinning sites, our results suggest these vaults would thus sequester between ~ 40–140 MMT CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;/yr over a decade. This annual figure represents ~ 6–12% of 2021 energy-related emissions in the contiguous Western United States. Harvesting thinned products only from gentler (&lt; 20%) slopes within shorter distances from roads (304 m) would result in a greenhouse gas savings equivalent to 3–6% of 2021 Western State emissions. However, these results depend heavily on parameters related to wood decay and post-decay methane emissions that are relatively poorly constrained.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;span&gt;AbstractSection&lt;/span&gt;\u0000 Conclusions\u0000 &lt;p&gt;These results suggest wood vaults are a promising emissions-reduction strategy, but challenges remain. It is not clear that the USFS has the resources to manage the additional ~ 20 million hectares targeted for forest thinning. Biogeochemically, the importance of rates of wood decay within the vault, and the fraction of methane generated that escapes the vault, are poorly constrained parameters. Their estimation will be important for narrowing uncertainty in estimates of life cycle emissions. Nevertheless, our analysis suggests wood vaults are a promising, low-tech, ready-to-deploy emissions reduction strategy in places where forest management incl","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12335127/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144797791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying terrestrial carbon in the context of climate change: a review of common and novel technologies and methods","authors":"Samuel Gameiro,&nbsp;Manuel Eduardo Ferreira,&nbsp;Luis Fernando Chimelo Ruiz,&nbsp;Gillian L. Galford,&nbsp;Mojtaba Zeraatpisheh,&nbsp;Victor Fernandez Nascimento,&nbsp;Rosane Garcia Collevatti","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00316-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00316-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Understanding carbon dynamics in Earth’s ecosystem is necessary for mitigating climate change. With recent advancements in technologies, it is important to understand both how carbon quantification in soil and vegetation is measured and how it can be improved. Therefore, this study conducted a bibliometric and bibliographic review of the most common carbon quantification methodologies.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Among the most widely used techniques, the Walkley-Black method and Elemental Analysis stand out for measuring below-ground carbon, while forest inventories are prominent for assessing above-ground carbon. Additionally, we found that the United States and China have the largest number of publications on this topic, with forest and agricultural areas being the most studied, followed by grasslands and mangroves. However, it should be noted that despite being indirect techniques, remote sensing, regression analysis, and machine learning have increasingly been used to generate geo-environmental carbon models for various areas. Landsat satellite images are the most widely used in remote sensing, followed by LiDAR digital models.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>These results demonstrate that while new technologies do yet not replace analytical techniques, they are valuable allies working in conjunction with the current carbon quantification process.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12330144/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144793189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of the Grain-for-Green Programme on carbon storage in the Upper Yangtze River Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model","authors":"Minghong Peng,&nbsp;Ye Yang,&nbsp;Yuanjie Deng,&nbsp;Dingdi Jize,&nbsp;Hang Chen,&nbsp;Yifeng Hai,&nbsp;Guojie Liu,&nbsp;Haijun Wang,&nbsp;Tianhui Xie,&nbsp;Hu Li,&nbsp;Ji Luo","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00315-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00315-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Alterations in land use and land cover (LUCC) play a fundamental role in influencing the variability of ecosystem carbon storage. Evaluating how land use dynamics affect carbon sequestration and projecting future carbon storage scenarios are essential steps toward meeting China’s dual carbon objectives. In this study, we integrated the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) framework to investigate LUCC dynamics and their implications for carbon storage across the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) between 2000 and 2020. Furthermore, projections of regional carbon storage were made under multiple Grain-for-Green Programme (GFGP) scenarios extending to the year 2040. Our findings indicated that cultivated land (CL), forest land (FL), and grassland (GL) consistently dominated land use composition within the UYRB, collectively occupying approximately 96.45% of the total area throughout 2000–2020. During this period, construction land (CSL) steadily expanded, primarily at the expense of CL. Both CL and GL experienced substantial reductions. Spatially, carbon storage exhibited a decreasing gradient from east to west, with the Jinsha River Basin exhibiting the greatest levels. Carbon storage values over the two decades were recorded at 6.387 × 10¹⁰ t in 2000, 6.382 × 10¹⁰ t in 2005, 6.379 × 10¹⁰ t in 2010, 6.369 × 10¹⁰ t in 2015, and 6.373 × 10¹⁰ t in 2020. Despite a slight recovery between 2015 and 2020, total carbon storage fell by 0.23% (1.438 × 10⁸ t) overall. This decline was primarily driven by the conversion of high-carbon-density CL and FL into low-carbon-density CSL and GL. Future projections show distinct disparities across four policy scenarios by 2040. Under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS), rapid economic growth and land conversion are projected to result in a carbon storage loss of 1.324 × 10⁸ t. Conversely, the mild, moderate, and strong GFGPS anticipate carbon storage increases of 1.385 × 10⁸ t, 3.157 × 10⁸ t, and 5.136 × 10⁸ t, respectively. The Jialing River Basin shows the highest gains under all GFGPS. Our findings underscore the significance of the GFGP in enhancing regional carbon sequestration, primarily through encouraging afforestation of previously CL and GL and curbing the expansion of CSL. Such insights can guide land-use planning and ecological conservation strategies in the UYRB moving forward.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12312590/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144751989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of carbon surplus and deficit under the background of carbon neutrality: a case study of Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area in China","authors":"Weiyi Sun,&nbsp;Jiaxi Liu,&nbsp;Xianzhao Liu,&nbsp;Tianhao Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00314-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00314-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Global climate change, marked by persistent warming trends, has emerged as one of the foremost challenges confronting human society in the 21st century. Systematically promoting carbon peak and neutrality has become a critical priority for governments in China. As the most active urbanization region in the country, metropolitan areas assume a pivotal leadership and exemplary role in executing carbon peak and neutrality initiatives. Consequently, we focus our research on the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CMA). The STIRPAT and CA-Markov models are employed to forecast carbon sinks and carbon emissions under various scenarios in 2030 and 2060, respectively, to explore pathways to carbon neutrality under various conditions.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The findings indicate that the carbon surplus and deficit (CSD) values have consistently been negative from 2000 to 2020, signifying a persistent carbon deficit in the region, which has exhibited an upward trend. Notably, the CSD in Yuelu, Ningxiang, and Changsha experienced the most significant increases, particularly in Yuelu, where it reached − 11.22 × 10⁶ t by 2020. Depending on the combinations of scenarios, the CSD values are anticipated to range from − 130.75 × 10⁶ t to − 98.22 × 10⁶ t in 2030, and from − 63.28 × 10⁶ t to − 21.22 × 10⁶ t in 2060. Furthermore, the carbon emissions under different scenarios are projected to reach peaks in 2030, with a maximum of 66.54 × 10⁶ t in 2060.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The prediction results of carbon neutrality in the CMA indicate that carbon emission is expected to reach peaks before 2030 across various scenarios. However, carbon emissions will significantly exceed the carbon sink capacity by 2060, and there is still a carbon emission gap of at least 2122.44 × 10⁴ t from achieving carbon neutrality, highlighting the necessity of accelerating emission reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Consequently, the critical challenge to achieve carbon neutrality lies in the substantial reduction of carbon emissions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12275343/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144666769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon co-benefits of digital economy and green finance: empirical evidence from China","authors":"Yayun Ren,&nbsp;Xiaohang Xu,&nbsp;Yantuan Yu,&nbsp;Zhenhua Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00311-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00311-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Addressing the carbon co-benefits of policy tools requires simultaneous improvements in both the quantity and quality of carbon abatement to achieve long-term sustainability and equity. Driven by digital technologies and bolstered by green capital, the combination of the digital economy and green finance (DEGF) establishes an effective mechanism for attaining sustainable development goals. Treating the coordinated implementation of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZ) and Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones (GFRIPZ) policies in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we identify the carbon co-benefits of DEGF using the Synthetic Control Method with penalized regression technique. Empirical findings show that DEGF significantly promotes simultaneous improvements in both the quantity and quality of carbon mitigation. These findings are robust across various validation tests, including time-placebo test, alternative model specification, and double machine learning algorithms. According to mechanisms analysis, improving green technological innovation and human capital level are the main channels that DEGF produces carbon co-benefits. The study provides China and other emerging economies seeking to promote sustainable development through digital-green integration with policy-relevant implications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12228155/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term farmland abandonments remarkably increased the phytolith carbon sequestration in soil","authors":"Linjiao Wang,&nbsp;Xiang Gao,&nbsp;Maoyin Sheng","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00312-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00312-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Phytolith<b>-</b>occluded organic carbon (PhytOC) is an important mechanism of long-term stable carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems. Farmland abandonment is a widespread land use change in the process of urbanization and industrialization and is still ongoing. Farmland abandonment can significantly affect soil carbon cycling. To elucidate the effects of farmland abandonment on soil PhytOC accumulation, in the present study, corn fields abandoned for 0 to 30 years ago in the mountainous areas of southern China were selected as the research objects. The change trends, influencing factors, and driving mechanisms of soil PhytOC accumulation during the abandonment process were studied.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The following results were obtained: (1) The range of PhytOC content and storage of the 0–15 cm soil profile for both active and abandoned corn fields was 0.39–1.49 g·kg^− 1 and 0.27–0.83 t·hm^− 2, respectively. (2) There was a notable enhancement in soil PhytOC accumulation as the duration of abandonment lengthened. In particular, after 30 years of abandonment, soil PhytOC accumulation rose significantly. (3) Abandonment noticeably altered the contents and ratios of soil nutrients of C, N, P and Si, along with key soil enzyme activities such as urease, sucrase, alkaline phosphatase, and catalase. (4) In the context of corn field abandonment, increase in soil PhytOC was primarily attributed to modifications in PhytOC inputs due to variations in surface vegetation cover. The impact of soil environment alterations resulting from abandonment on PhytOC decomposition was less pronounced.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>These findings are instrumental for accurately assessing the carbon sequestration potential of farmland abandonment and for developing regional carbon management strategies based on such practices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12231618/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144558691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decomposition of driving factors and peak prediction of carbon emissions in key cities in China","authors":"Yuxin Zhang,&nbsp;Yao Zhang,&nbsp;Wei Chen,&nbsp;Yongjian Zhang,&nbsp;Jing Quan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00310-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00310-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban areas are pivotal contributors to carbon emissions, and achieving carbon peaking at the urban level is crucial for meeting national carbon reduction targets. This study estimates the carbon emissions and intensity changes of 19 cities from 2000 to 2023 using urban statistical data. By employing the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, the driving factors of carbon emissions across these cities are analyzed. Additionally, a multi-scenario prediction approach is utilized to forecast the timing of carbon peaking and trends in carbon emission intensity under various scenarios. The findings reveal that, during the study period, carbon emissions exhibited an overall upward trend, while carbon emission intensity demonstrated a year-by-year decline. The population effect and per capita GDP effect were identified as significant drivers of urban carbon emissions during urban development. Conversely, reducing energy intensity and the carbon intensity of energy consumption can effectively curb the growth of carbon emissions. Under the low-carbon scenario, all cities are projected to achieve carbon peaking before 2030. In the baseline scenario, the vast majority of cities (89.47%) are expected to reach carbon peaking before 2030. However, under the high-carbon scenario, only 63.16% of cities are anticipated to achieve carbon peaking by the same deadline.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12225531/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large differences between UK black carbon emission factors","authors":"Adam Brighty,&nbsp;Iain Staffell,&nbsp;Helen ApSimon","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00306-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00306-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><p>Black carbon (BC) is a pollutant that illustrates strong links between climate warming and adverse health effects from air pollution. No standardised measurement technique for BC emissions has been implemented, making emissions and estimates highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate two UK-based BC emission factor databases calculated using two distinct.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) and the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model database from IIASA. The scope of this investigation was limited to the 1 A (Fuel Consumption) NFR code, which comprised the largest BC-emitting activities in the UK. Comparisons were made between a reference NAEI value and a range of low (e.g., highest abatement, newest technology), medium, and high GAINS emission factors. The NAEI value sat outside the GAINS BC ranges across 64% of the selected 1 A sources, most evidently within industrial combustion. By comparison, PM_2.5 and NO_x emission factors within the same databases showed less frequent disagreement, with 26% and 46%, respectively, of the GAINS sources not overlapping with the NAEI reference. A complementary BC emissions estimate, using NAEI activity data, found the highest variance in emissions to be within industrial, domestic, and agricultural combustion sources. Overall, this paper highlights the need to understand the differences behind these BC emission factors and to bring them into closer alignment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12224827/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Afforestation as a mitigation strategy: countering climate-induced risk of forest carbon sink in China","authors":"Yuan Cao,&nbsp;Deyu Zhong,&nbsp;Rong Shang,&nbsp;Qihua Ke,&nbsp;Mingxi Zhang,&nbsp;Di Xie,&nbsp;Shutong Liu,&nbsp;Chensong Zhao,&nbsp;Randongfang Wei","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00308-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00308-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>China has made substantial efforts in afforestation since the 1970s, significantly contributing to the country’s forest carbon sink. However, the future carbon sink dynamics remain uncertain due to anticipated changes in forest age structure, climate conditions, and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Moreover, the extent to which afforestation can enhance future carbon sequestration has not been fully quantified. This study focuses specifically on China and integrates forest growth models with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models to project future carbon dynamics based on shifts in forest habitat suitability. A nature scenario is applied to evaluate potential climate-induced risks to forest carbon sequestration, while an afforestation scenario is used to assess the additional contribution from planned afforestation efforts.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The baseline aboveground biomass (AGB) of China’s forests in 2020 is estimated at 11.59 ± 4.06 PgC. Under the nature scenario and assuming no future disturbances, the total AGB is projected to increase by 5.20–5.74 PgC by the 2050s and by 6.35–8.11 PgC by the 2070s, while carbon sequestration rates are expected to decline from 146.03 to 165.03 TgC/yr to approximately 122.98–137.80 TgC/yr. Between 11.79 and 39.60% of forests are at risk of land loss and compositional shifts in the 2070s, with the situation exacerbated under the SSP585 scenario. To mitigate climate-induced risks, the afforestation scenario proposes an additional 117.90–129.32 Mha of suitable forest area by the 2070s. Newly planted forests are projected to contribute approximately 37.42–65.60% of the carbon sequestration achieved by existing forests during the same period.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Climate change is projected to cause significant forest loss and compositional changes across China. Although total forest carbon storage is expected to increase, the overall rate of carbon sequestration will likely decline. Afforestation emerges as a key strategy to enhance future forest carbon sinks. This study provides a spatially explicit assessment of carbon sequestration potential through afforestation and offers science-based guidance for the design of targeted forest policies in China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12182680/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144339700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}