Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"Pathways to carbon neutrality: Spatiotemporal evolution and policy-oriented zoning of carbon balance in China’s urban agglomerations","authors":"Jiao Pang,&nbsp;Yishuo Liu,&nbsp;Yu Wang,&nbsp;Ruomeng Li,&nbsp;Ziyu Shi,&nbsp;Yijing Zhang,&nbsp;Feng Yan,&nbsp;Hao Xu,&nbsp;Yaheng Chen","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00469-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00469-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the context of escalating global climate change and China’s commitment to its dual carbon goals, this study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon balance across 296 prefecture-level and higher cities in mainland China from 2001 to 2022, using emission data from the EDGAR database. By integrating ecosystem carbon sequestration models with economic contribution coefficients (ECC), ecological support coefficients (ESC), and China’s main functional zoning framework, we systematically analyze regional carbon sources and sinks and propose a spatially explicit optimization strategy. Results reveal a distinct “higher in the north than in the south, higher in the east than in the west” emission pattern, driven by economic agglomeration and energy structure, with industrial clusters such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta acting as high-emission hotspots; notably, the Chengdu–Chongqing region exhibited a sharp emissions surge in 2022 due to accelerated industrialization. In contrast, carbon sequestration capacity forms a “northeast–southwest high axis,” enhanced by ecological restoration in regions like the Yellow River Basin but diminished along the eastern coast due to urban expansion, thereby exacerbating regional carbon imbalance. Based on ECC and ESC, we classify areas into four dynamically adjusted carbon balance zones: (1) low-carbon maintenance zones (e.g., Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Chengdu–Chongqing), characterized by strong economic output and carbon sink potential; (2) economic development zones (e.g., Central Plains, Shandong Peninsula), reliant on high-carbon industries yet underpinned by relatively sound ecological foundations; (3) carbon sink development zones (middle reaches of the Yangtze River), combining significant economic contributions with fragile ecosystems; and (4) comprehensive optimization zones (e.g., Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos–Yulin, Hexi Corridor), facing dual economic and ecological pressures. These are further refined into 16 sub-zones aligned with national functional zoning to enable targeted policy implementation. We recommend zone-specific strategies: consolidating low-carbon technologies and ecological advantages in maintenance zones; accelerating industrial decarbonization and energy efficiency in development zones; strengthening ecological restoration and green industry cultivation in sink zones; and fostering coordinated socio-ecological development in optimization zones through policy incentives, interregional collaboration, and market mechanisms. Ultimately, achieving nationwide carbon balance hinges on two core pathways: optimized land-use planning and the implementation of differentiated, spatially tailored policies that account for local socioeconomic and ecological contexts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13527989/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148238586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"County-level land use carbon budget dynamics and heterogeneous driving mechanisms in Chengdu plain, China: integrating FLUS and GTWR model","authors":"Qiang Huang,&nbsp;Guangjie Wang,&nbsp;Lei Hu,&nbsp;Jiahui Xie","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00467-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00467-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Against the backdrop of global warming, land use change critically shapes regional carbon budgets by altering both emission sources and carbon sinks. Existing studies predominantly focus on macro-scales, overlooking county-level heterogeneity and future trajectories, thus limiting precise carbon balance management. The Chengdu Plain, as a key economic agglomeration and upper Yangtze ecological barrier, faces severe carbon imbalance challenges due to rapid urbanization. This study contributes three novel insights: (i) integrating county-scale analysis with future land use simulation to project carbon budget dynamics; (ii) applying GTWR to reveal spatiotemporally heterogeneous driving mechanisms that macro-scale studies mask; and (iii) developing a county typology-based carbon management framework.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>(1) From 2000 to 2030, construction land expanded significantly while cropland, forest, and grassland continuously contracted; (2) The net carbon budget (net emissions) followed a trajectory of initial increase and subsequent decline, peaking at 6673.122 × 10⁴ t in 2020 before declining to a projected 6409.177 × 10⁴ t by 2030. Construction land was the dominant carbon source, while forests served as the primary carbon sink, together accounting for over 95% of the gross budget; (3) County-level net carbon budgets exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation, dominated by High-High and Low-Low agglomeration patterns; (4) GTWR results indicated that consumption level (mean coefficient: 0.466), urbanization level (0.392), population size (0.388), and industrial structure (0.196) positively drove net carbon emissions, while investment level (-0.048) exhibited an inhibiting effect not captured in average macro-scale models. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity was notable.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Achieving a managed regional carbon balance requires differentiated county-level strategies: For urban core counties, low-carbon community transformation and optimized urban layout; for industrial counties, carbon intensity thresholds and green industrial land policies; for underdeveloped southwest counties, green consumption promotion; and cross-regional carbon compensation mechanisms to strengthen sink protection. This county-scale, mechanism-based framework provides a scientific toolkit for precise carbon balance management in ecologically and economically vital regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13505160/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148215686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green frontiers on the “Belt and Road”: carbon policy, emission efficiency, and environmental total factor productivity across 41 economies","authors":"Zhiyuan Gao,&nbsp;Ziying Jia,&nbsp;Ting Sun,&nbsp;Youyuan Li,&nbsp;Chuxiao Yang,&nbsp;Yu Hao","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00465-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00465-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As countries along the Belt and Road pursue green economic transformation, environmental total factor productivity (ETFP) has become a key indicator of green development performance, making the measurement and improvement of ETFP a pressing priority. This study evaluates the ETFP of 41 countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We introduce a novel framework that combines the Green Luenberger Productivity Index with the Bi-weighted Modified Russell Model (BWMRM), treating carbon emissions as an undesirable output. The results show that although overall ETFP remains relatively low, it exhibits a clear upward trend driven primarily by technological progress and carbon emission reduction efforts. Notably, clean technology innovation contributes more to CO₂ reduction than structural energy adjustments. In addition, the input-output performance of labor exceeds that of capital and GDP, with significant regional disparities across countries. Based on these findings, we propose a four-dimensional policy framework. First, countries should establish a gradient mechanism for low-carbon transitions. Second, policymakers should optimize factor allocation to improve labor skills and the green use of capital. Third, fostering transnational green technology spillovers is essential for enhancing clean energy cooperation. Finally, governments should design differentiated, region-specific emission reduction strategies. Overall, this study provides both theoretical and practical guidance for advancing green development across BRI countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13505110/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148215795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing carbon estimation in harvested wood products in the United States: a case study in the Northern Lake States","authors":"Joseph M. Nash,&nbsp;Grant M. Domke","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00464-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00464-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Carbon stocks and stock changes in harvested wood products (HWPs) are an important part of land sector greenhouse gas (GHG) estimation and reporting. HWPs broadly categorized as products in-use (e.g., solid wood and paper products) and in solid waste disposal sites (SWDS; e.g., landfills), store carbon transferred from harvested trees. In the United States (US), estimates of carbon in HWPs have historically been reported in the US GHG Inventory and included in submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These data have been obtained from national and international statistics on production and consumption of forest products and incorporated into a compilation system to estimate carbon in products in-use and in SWDS. In contrast, estimates of carbon in forest ecosystems have been obtained from nationwide forest inventory (NFI) data collected and maintained by the US Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Here we describe a case study for the Northern Lake States region of the US (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin) where harvest data from the FIA program were integrated into HWP compilation systems. This advance improves consistency and continuity with forest ecosystem from NFI plots with estimates of HWPs.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Over the 1900–2024 time period, total estimated net accumulation (i.e., balance of additions from transfers of harvested wood from forest ecosystems and losses from decay of wood harvested in the past) of carbon stored in products in-use was 277.0 ± 17.5 Million Metric Tons (MMT) Carbon (C) and in SWDS was 155.2 ± 9.8 MMT C. We estimate that HWPs from the region represent a carbon sink of 4.9 ± 0.1 MMT C in 2024. These estimates include HWPs produced in the region and exported domestically or internationally, as well as any HWPs produced and retained in the region, but not imports.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The proposed methodology enables disaggregation with coarse national and state-level FIA data, and allows for integration of more specific, entity-level data to improve precision and reduce uncertainty in HWP estimates in the US and improves consistency and continuity with forest ecosystem estimates across spatial and temporal scales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13452093/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148196816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subway network accessibility and carbon balance: evidence from China’s dynamic centrality analysis","authors":"Gao Ziming,&nbsp;Wang Yuanyuan,&nbsp;Lv Yang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00466-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00466-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Amid the ongoing transition toward low-carbon urban development, subway networks, as a modern mode of transportation, have become a key focus of academic attention. However, existing research suffers from two critical gaps: first, a predominant focus on either carbon emissions or carbon absorption in isolation, rather than their equilibrium; second, a simplistic “point‑line” physical assessment of subways that overlooks network‑level accessibility and topology. This study addresses these gaps by adopting the carbon balance ratio (the ratio of terrestrial carbon absorption to anthropogenic emissions) as the outcome variable and employing Social Network Analysis to construct dynamic, station-level subway network centrality metrics in China. Empirical findings reveal that a one‑unit increase in county‑level subway network accessibility significantly improves the carbon balance ratio. This effect is strongest in economically underdeveloped regions, areas with compact spatial structures, and zones with lower residential electricity consumption. Mechanism analysis reveals a tri‑phase contribution: (1) during construction, subways preserve green space and carbon absorption capability by avoiding surface disruption; (2) during operation, they induce modal shifts that reduce transport emissions; and (3) through industrial transformation, their carbon benefits are amplified by supportive institutions, market mechanisms, and technological capabilities. By systematically integrating carbon balance measurement with network‑level subway accessibility, this study offers a comprehensive empirical framework and provides policy insights for integrating rail transit into low‑carbon spatial governance strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13505065/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148175328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"City-level carbon emissions accounting and mitigation strategies considering urban characteristics: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region, China.","authors":"Yi Xu, Bing Zhang, Chengdong Kong, Ting You, Xiaojiang Wu, Yanlei Feng, Yu Kong","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00461-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00461-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Exploring the disparities in CO₂ emissions (CE) among different city types is essential for formulating effective decarbonization policies. However, due to the limitations of urban energy data, it is challenging to conduct CE analysis at the city level. This study proposes a city-level CE accounting model based on multi-source data to estimate emissions for 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2013 to 2022. Using the K-means algorithm, cities are categorized into five distinct types, while a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is employed to analyze their spatiotemporal drivers. The results demonstrate that the proposed model in this study significantly enhances the accuracy of city-level CE estimation compared to traditional Nighttime Light (NTL)-based fitting methods, with the R² value increasing from 0.63 to 0.76. Based on this improved model, the result shows that the total CE in the YRD rose from 1,700 Mt in 2013 to approximately 1,931 Mt in 2022. The region exhibits a high degree of emission concentration, where a mere 14.6% of cities with annual emissions exceeding 80 Mt contribute to 40.3% of the total regional emissions. GTWR analysis reveals that population, per capita GDP, industry structure, and energy intensity consistently drive emissions upward, while urbanization exhibits dual effects. Optimizing industrial structure and reducing energy intensity are effective ways to curb the growth of urban CE. This study improves the estimation method for urban CE based on NTL data and provides scientific support for various city types to formulate tailored mitigation pathways.</p>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148194293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic drivers of carbon emission reduction in Lithuania under the European Green Deal: a wavelet analysis of synergies in waste management, energy efficiency, R&D, and international legal compliance","authors":"Jingchi Wen,&nbsp;Babatunde Sunday Eweade,&nbsp;Huseyin Ozdeser,&nbsp;Berna Uzun","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00463-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00463-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reducing carbon emissions remains a major challenge for Lithuania under the European Green Deal, particularly due to the dominance of energy-related emissions and evolving economic dynamics. This study investigates the key drivers of CO₂ emissions, focusing on energy intensity, research and development (R&amp;D), waste management, international legal compliance, economic growth, and trade openness over the period 1996Q1–2024Q4. To capture nonlinear, time-varying, and frequency-dependent relationships, the study employs advanced wavelet-based techniques, including Wavelet Power Spectrum, Wavelet Coherence, and Partial Wavelet Coherence. The findings reveal that energy intensity is the most dominant and persistent driver of emissions, exhibiting strong long-run effects, while economic growth also contributes positively, confirming the presence of scale effects. In contrast, R&amp;D and institutional quality show conditional and time-dependent emission-reducing impacts, whereas waste management plays a relatively weak and indirect role. Based on these results, the study recommends prioritizing energy efficiency improvements, strengthening green innovation policies, enhancing institutional effectiveness, and accelerating the transition toward renewable energy systems to achieve sustainable emission reductions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00463-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148154774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing and quantifying the saturation effect of forest aboveground biomass mapping using Landsat 8, Sentinel 1/2","authors":"Zhaohua Liu,&nbsp;Yiru Wang,&nbsp;Sijia Li,&nbsp;Guangyi Mu,&nbsp;Kaishan Song","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00457-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00457-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The application of remote sensing to forest aboveground biomass (AGB) mapping has received increasing attention, and substantial progress has been achieved. Nevertheless, saturation of remotely sensed signals remains a major challenge, often leading to the underestimation of AGB in high-density forests. In structurally complex forests, saturation in forest AGB mapping is influenced by multiple factors, including data sources, tree species, and modeling approaches. Although numerous methods have been proposed to mitigate saturation, a standardized metric for quantifying saturation and evaluating the effectiveness of these methods is still lacking. In this study, by separating saturation effects from mapping errors, SAT is proposed as a quantitative metric for assessing saturation in forest AGB mapping. The saturation levels of widely used and freely available Landsat 8 and Sentinel-1/2 remote sensing data were evaluated for forests dominated by ten common tree species in southern China. In addition, a quantitative analysis was conducted to examine the effects of multi-source data integration and nine different machine learning models on saturation levels. The results showed that tree species had a pronounced influence on estimation performance and saturation levels, with SAT values ranging from 48.15 Mg/ha to 147.93 Mg/ha. Integrated decision tree–based ensemble models produced more stable estimation results and higher saturation levels than single models. Moreover, texture features derived from optical images and Sentinel-1 data improved both the accuracy and saturation level of forest AGB estimation, with Sentinel-1 features showing a stronger contribution than texture features alone. Overall, the proposed SAT goes beyond conventional accuracy assessment by explicitly quantifying saturation-induced underestimation in high-biomass forests. This provides practical support for comparing sensor combinations and modeling strategies, and improves the reliability and interpretability of remote-sensing-based forest AGB products in dense forests.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00457-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148154814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Maritime carbon tax’s impact on China’s shipping industry: economy and carbon reduction","authors":"Limei Sun,&nbsp;Siqi Peng,&nbsp;Jinjin Liu,&nbsp;Ying Liu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00456-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00456-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Existing studies on maritime carbon taxation rely on static or homogeneous-firm models, failing to capture industry heterogeneity and dynamic policy responses. We constructed a four-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, explicitly distinguishing between pollution-intensive and clean shipping companies, and calibrated it to the actual characteristics of China’s shipping industry. We explored the dynamic transmission mechanism of shocks from carbon tax and green technology through scenario simulations, while using a Time-Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to complement the results for robustness. The findings show that the maritime carbon tax exhibits significant asymmetric effects: in the short term, it raises corporate costs and suppresses industry output, with a more pronounced impact on high-pollution enterprises; while in the long term, it can effectively drive the adoption of green technologies and optimize the energy structure, significantly reducing industry carbon emissions while promoting investment and employment growth. The study also identifies a reasonable trade-off between economic development and carbon reduction. A moderately intensive and differentiated carbon tax policy can balance short-term economic costs with long-term low-carbon benefits, providing a scientific basis for the low-carbon transformation of China’s shipping industry.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00456-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148142254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond emissions: a stochastic cusp-logit analysis of environmental cost regimes in BRICS","authors":"Dhyani Mehta,&nbsp;Nikunj Patel,&nbsp;Abdikafi Hassan Abdi","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00458-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00458-w","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Emerging economies suffer a huge economic burdens from environmental damage because most of the time we measure environmental damage using conventional emissions-based metrics. This study addresses this gap by introducing environmental cost (EC) as a novel measure that quantifies the economic burden of environmental degradation. The need for the new measurement stems from the requirement to examine the non-linear and asymmetric behaviors of the relationship between the environment and the economy in rapidly developing economies such as the BRICS countries in their transition from fossil fuels, their drive for new types of innovation, and their increased susceptibility to sudden changes in the cost of degradation due to energy transition, innovation-related pressures, and vulnerability to sudden changes. Therefore, stabilizing mechanisms such as Energy Transition, Innovation, Environmental Adaptability, and Trade in Low-carbon Technologies (TLCT) will reduce the possibility of experiencing high levels of Environmental Cost, while Environmental Vulnerability (EV) will heighten the probability of experiencing catastrophic regime shifts to high-cost, unstable states with sudden and extreme changes in costs. To accomplish this objective of validating the Cusp-Logit framework, a balanced panel data consisting of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) for the years 2015 to 2024 is used. The hybrid model of the Cusp-Logit framework consists of the geometrical layout of the Cusp Catastrophe model and a stochastic Logit transition mechanism that will capture the nonlinear regimes of the Cusp Catastrophe model and the dynamic persistence of costs associated with environmental degradation. Although empirical evidence points to the stabilizing effects of energy transition, innovation, environmental adaptability and TLCT on flattening the potential surface and reducing the possible occurrence &amp; duration of high-cost regimes; EV creates a systemic tilt which increases the likelihood of a shift to an unstable/high-EC state. The cross-national analysis demonstrates that while China &amp; India have stable innovation-based environments; Brazil, Russia &amp; South Africa are much more susceptible to instability due to a limited ability to adapt to &amp; utilize technology. Given that there is currently no comprehensive framework for understanding environmental performance in terms of costs; this work develops a new methodology for modeling the dynamic behaviors of asymmetrical regimes as well as understanding the transition probabilities between them. This provides an early warning system, which will assist BRICS policymakers to manage their exposure to environmental risks while moving towards developing sustainable pathways with low cost. Unlike conventional emission-based and linear approaches, the proposed framework captures nonlinear regime shifts, transition probabilities, and persistence of environmental cost dynamics, offeri","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00458-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148136343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}