Geophysical Research Letters最新文献

{"title":"Successes and Failures of Current AI Climate Models","authors":"Adam A. Scaife","doi":"10.1029/2026gl122615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122615","url":null,"abstract":"AI climate model simulations are in their infancy and the paper by Baxter et al. (this issue) reports the results of a new set of tests for how well AI weather and climate models represent aspects of atmospheric dynamics, including low frequency variability. They shine a light on previously untested aspects of AI models and highlight their very mixed performance, illustrating some stunning successes and some disappointing failures. This kind of work is an important prerequisite for reliable longer term climate prediction with AI models and there are implications for training future AI models.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147744100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eddy Kinetic Energy Contribution to Total Ocean Kinetic Energy From Multi-Satellite Altimetry","authors":"Diego Cortés-Morales, Bàrbara Barceló-Llull, Laura Gómez-Navarro, Ananda Pascual","doi":"10.1029/2026gl123075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123075","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean mesoscale structures play a central role in transporting oceanic properties, accounting for a significant fraction of ocean's total kinetic energy (KE). Using 23 years of a novel multisatellite altimetric estimate, we assess the contribution of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), mean kinetic energy (MKE) and cross terms to the temporal mean and temporal variability of KE. EKE explains approximately 72% of the global mean KE, reducing previous estimates by ∼7%–20%, depending on the data set. Regionally, MKE dominates in intense steady flows within western boundary currents, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the Labrador Current, and equatorial band, while EKE dominates over 90% of the global ocean. EKE drives KE temporal variability and positive trend globally, except in regions with large MKE contribution, where cross terms become non-negligible. These findings emphasize the dominant role of EKE in shaping global KE, while highlighting the importance of MKE and cross terms in key climate regions.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"144 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147753409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Lake Ice Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Yu Cai, Yao Xiao, Xiaoyi Shen, Haili Li, Chang-Qing Ke","doi":"10.1029/2025gl120938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120938","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can rapidly alter regional hydrothermal conditions and directly affect lake ice. This study presents the first assessment of AR impacts on lake ice phenology across the Northern Hemisphere. AR events were associated with positive anomalies in temperature, rainfall, and snowfall, as well as negative anomalies in solar radiation. These climate anomalies showed significant correlations with lake ice phenology. Between 1951 and 2022, AR-associated climate anomalies explained on average 20%, 33%, and 30% of the long-term variations in ice-on, ice-off, and ice duration, respectively, with stronger effects on North American lakes than on Eurasian lakes. Temperature anomalies contributed approximately half of the total explanatory power. Furthermore, extreme lake ice events corresponded closely to the frequency and intensity of AR events. These results indicate that ARs play a significant role in driving interannual variability in lake ice phenology across the Northern Hemisphere.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147755188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Escalating Compound Drought-Heatwaves and Demographic Shifts Threaten Simultaneous Global Breadbasket Failures","authors":"Amitesh Sabut, Ashok Mishra","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118650","url":null,"abstract":"Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events pose a major threat to agricultural sectors worldwide. This study quantifies projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of CDHW events across major breadbasket regions. Historical CDHW occurrences (1982–2019) are compared with future projections (2020–2095) derived from eight CMIP6 climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Results indicate significant increases in CDHW characteristics, particularly in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Central United States, where frequency and duration of events are expected to rise. High-stress CDHW events affecting over 30% of global breadbasket regions are projected to become more common, with multiple (three or more) breadbaskets experiencing simultaneous stress, especially in Central Europe, North China, and the Indo-Gangetic Plain later this century. Demographic shifts and rising food import dependency amplify global food security risks. The results emphasize the need for adaptive strategies to protect agriculture, supply chains, and future food security.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147739620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Net Effective Radiative Forcing From Ozone-Depleting Substances and Its Uncertainty","authors":"Luke M. Western, Keith P. Shine, William J. Collins","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119094","url":null,"abstract":"The direct effective radiative forcing (ERF) of long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODS) is around 15%–20% of the pre-industrial to present-day ERF of <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/4bc9e4e4-243e-4a33-9a1d-779fd97f92f0/grl72489-math-0001.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72489:grl72489-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72489-math-0001.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>, but their net ERF, including indirect chemical adjustments, remains poorly constrained. We use an adapted simple climate model, trained on bulk indirect ODS forcing from complex climate models, to quantify uncertainty in net ERF over time and the net ERF across individual ODS. We find that the direct ODS ERF in 2019 of 0.35 (0.31, 0.39) W <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/338040a5-26f8-4568-95cd-8543fa700bde/grl72489-math-0002.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72489:grl72489-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72489-math-0002.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msup>\u0000<mi mathvariant=\"normal\">m</mi>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>−</mo>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</mrow>\u0000</msup>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> is reduced to a net ERF of 0.11 (−0.02, 0.26) W <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/1bc6fe4c-9a67-42df-86d9-8fa288ad3097/grl72489-math-0003.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72489:grl72489-math-0003\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72489-math-0003.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msup>\u0000<mi mathvariant=\"normal\">m</mi>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>−</mo>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</mrow>\u0000</msup>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> when chemical adjustments are included. Most net ERF arises from CFC-12 and HCFC-22 (0.18 W <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/7412d5d1-a3c3-48e6-9225-96af1a9b7da7/grl72489-math-0004.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72489:grl72489-math-0004\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72489-math-0004.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msup>\u0000<mi mathvariant=\"normal\">m</mi>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>−</mo>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</mrow>\u0000</msup>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>), with chemical adjustments substantially reducing the net ERF of many other substances. Since the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the total ODS net ERF has increased much less rapidly than the direct ERF.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147755189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Mantle Velocity Uncertainty on Receiver-Function Imaging of the Transition Zone","authors":"Carlos A. M. Chaves, Felipe P. Corral, Jeroen Ritsema","doi":"10.1029/2025gl121559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121559","url":null,"abstract":"Seismological estimates of the 400-km and 670-km mantle discontinuities (d400 and d670) are crucial for understanding the thermochemical structure and dynamics of the mantle transition zone (MTZ). However, artifacts from using ray theory and uncertainties in mantle velocity structure can affect topographic mapping of these boundaries. The artifacts are expected but have not been thoroughly explored. We focus on the mantle beneath North America, computing common-conversion-point (CCP) images using spectral-element method synthetics for eight global and regional tomographic models. Our results reveal artificial undulations in d400 and d670 and variations in MTZ thickness arising from incorrect velocity corrections that are large compared to actual topography resolved using USArray data. Our synthetic experiments highlight that interpretation of d400 and d670 maps from CCP imaging and similar techniques should be done judiciously, due to substantial uncertainties introduced by velocity corrections.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147744099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Heterogeneity of Salt Marsh Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Dual Controls of Hydrological Setting and Salinity Regime","authors":"Dongxiao Yin, Zafer Defne, Neil K. Ganju, John C. Warner, David K. Ralston, Courtney K. Harris, Bin Li","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119461","url":null,"abstract":"Salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) is typically assessed using point measurements of vertical accretion, neglecting three-dimensionality of geomorphic evolution and spatial variability. Recent studies suggest links between vertical and horizontal vulnerability, with differences between oligohaline and polyhaline marshes, yet these relationships remain untested in estuary-marsh systems. Here we combine geospatial analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate how unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR), a metric of marsh degradation, relates to elevation across hydrological regions and salinity regimes in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, the largest lagoonal estuary in U.S. We show that at given normalized elevation, UVVR decreases across hydrological regions and salinity regimes from offshore to inland. UVVR-elevation relationship varies systematically with both hydrological setting and salinity regime, with hydrology exerting stronger influence. These findings challenge the assumption of a universal marsh deterioration trajectory and underscore the need to account for spatial heterogeneity when predicting responses to SLR.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147735633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Partial Ruptures, Cascading Multi-Fault Ruptures, and Aftershocks in 2D Random Fault Network","authors":"So Ozawa","doi":"10.1029/2025gl120375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120375","url":null,"abstract":"The Gutenberg-Richter law for the distribution of earthquake magnitude and the Omori law for the decay of aftershocks are two universal laws in seismicity. Although numerical models have been developed to reproduce these laws, they sometimes produce many more foreshocks and fewer aftershocks than observed. In this study, we numerically simulate earthquake sequences on a randomly generated 2D fault network, in which the fault lengths follow a power-law distribution. Our simulations reproduce the Omori law with minimal numbers of foreshocks. The event size distribution follows the Gutenberg-Richter law with the b-value expected from the fault length distribution, despite the fact that many earthquakes are multi-fault ruptures or partial ruptures. Partial ruptures, multi-fault ruptures, and aftershocks are more common for denser fault systems, which have stronger fault interaction. Overall, this work illuminates how the geometrical complexity of faults produces the statistical laws of earthquakes.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147735630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Volume Increases the Mobility of Geophysical Granular Flow: A Unified Rheological Perspective","authors":"Ming Peng, Jiacheng Xia, Lu Jing, Gordon G. D. Zhou, Limin Zhang, Jianfeng Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119975","url":null,"abstract":"Geophysical granular flows, involving rapidly flowing granular materials, can exhibit volume-enhanced mobility. Lacking a mechanistic understanding of such size effects limits the applications of lab-scale findings to natural events. Using discrete element method simulations, we find that increasing granular system size suppresses energy-dissipating velocity fluctuations while promoting sustained creeping motion. This nonlocal phenomenon of granular materials enhances the mobility in various granular column collapse scenarios. This mechanism is reflected in the rheological data, which deviate from traditional &lt;span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/0eacf7e7-1056-4419-af9a-a91f5919db0e/grl72502-math-0001.png\"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"235\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"&gt;&lt;mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl72502-math-0001.png\"&gt;&lt;mjx-semantics&gt;&lt;mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"0,4\" data-semantic-content=\"5,0\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"simple function\" data-semantic-speech=\"mu left parenthesis upper I right parenthesis\" data-semantic-type=\"appl\"&gt;&lt;mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"appl\" data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"simple function\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"&gt;&lt;mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-mi&gt;&lt;mjx-mo data-semantic-added=\"true\" data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"appl\" data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"application\" data-semantic-type=\"punctuation\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;\"&gt;&lt;mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-mo&gt;&lt;mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"leftright\" data-semantic-type=\"fenced\"&gt;&lt;mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"fenced\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"open\" data-semantic-type=\"fence\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;\"&gt;&lt;mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-mo&gt;&lt;mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"&gt;&lt;mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-mi&gt;&lt;mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"fenced\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"close\" data-semantic-type=\"fence\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;\"&gt;&lt;mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-c&gt;&lt;/mjx-mo&gt;&lt;/mjx-mrow&gt;&lt;/mjx-mrow&gt;&lt;/mjx-semantics&gt;&lt;/mjx-math&gt;&lt;mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"&gt;&lt;math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72502:grl72502-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72502-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"&gt;&lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"0,4\" data-semantic-content=\"5,0\" data-semantic-role=\"simple function\" data-semantic-speech=\"mu left parenthe","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"111 3S 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147755191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of Seismic Energy Rate Functions of Shallow Tremors","authors":"Shunsuke Takemura, Suguru Yabe","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119695","url":null,"abstract":"We investigated the energy rate functions of shallow tremors southeast of the Kii Peninsula in the Nankai subduction zone. Unimodal functions (triangle or bell-shaped) explain the characteristics of small (&lt;10⁴ J) shallow tremors. As the seismic radiated energy increases, the energy rate functions become more complex and are better characterized by a unimodal function with a sharper peak than a triangle function or with small sub-events. These tremor characteristics differ from those of ordinary earthquakes. We compared the moment-duration relationships between shallow and deep tremors and found that shallow tremors have larger seismic moments. This difference can be explained by the thermal conditions along the plate boundary fault.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147755190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}