Geophysical Research Letters最新文献

WoFSCast: A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Thunderstorms at Watch-to-Warning Scales WoFSCast：从观察到警告级别预测雷暴的机器学习模型

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112383

Montgomery L. Flora, Corey Potvin

{"title":"WoFSCast: A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Thunderstorms at Watch-to-Warning Scales","authors":"Montgomery L. Flora, Corey Potvin","doi":"10.1029/2024GL112383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112383","url":null,"abstract":"Developing AI models that match or exceed the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems but run much more quickly is a burgeoning area of research. Most AI-NWP models, however, have been trained on global ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 data, which does not resolve storm-scale evolution. We have therefore adapted Google's GraphCast framework for limited-area, storm-scale domains, then trained on archived forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), a convection-allowing ensemble with 5-min forecast output. We evaluate the WoFSCast predictions using object-based verification, grid-based verification, spatial storm structure assessments, and spectra analysis. The WoFSCast closely emulates the WoFS environment fields, matches 70%–80% of WoFS storms out to 2-hr forecast times, and suffers only modest blurring. When verified against observed storms, WoFSCast produces contingency table statistics and fractions skill scores similar to WoFS. WoFSCast demonstrates that AI-NWP can be extended to rapidly evolving, small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL112383","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trans-Seasonal Vegetation-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Explained Record-Breaking Cascading Extremes in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River 跨季节植被-陆地-大气相互作用解释了长江上游破纪录的级联极端现象

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114165

Ning An, Yang Chen, Zhen Liao, Jianying Li

{"title":"Trans-Seasonal Vegetation-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Explained Record-Breaking Cascading Extremes in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River","authors":"Ning An, Yang Chen, Zhen Liao, Jianying Li","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114165","url":null,"abstract":"The upper reaches of the Yangtze River observed record-breaking droughts, heatwaves, and forest fires in rapid sequence during the 2022 summer, challenging the established mechanistic understanding. We here explained the compound event through a trans-seasonal vegetation-land-atmosphere interacting perspective. The wetter spring-sunnier summer pattern resulted in record high loads of vegetation and enhanced transpiration. This led to progressive depletion of soil moisture to a critical threshold that shifted the originally weak response of air temperature into hypersensitive mode. The resulting rapid rise of air temperature amplified atmospheric evaporative demand to an unprecedentedly high level, which in turn exacerbated the drying-out of soil and vegetation. These favorable weather and fuel factors combined to cause unseasonal forest fires of unprecedented burning intensity. Our results remind of preparedness against drought-heat-fire compounding hazards even in humid regions under opportune configurations between ecological and meteorological conditions.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114165","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Variability of Earth's Magnetopause and Bow Shock Locations Modeled via Multi-Decade Solar Wind Observations 通过数十年太阳风观测模拟的地球磁层顶和弓形激波位置的变化

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115462

Kiley L. Yeakel, Ian Cohen, Drew L. Turner

引用次数: 0

Near-Term Future Sea-Level Projections Supported by Extrapolation of Tide-Gauge Observations 由验潮仪观测外推支持的近期未来海平面预估

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112940

Jinping Wang, Xuebin Zhang, John A. Church, Matt King, Xianyao Chen

{"title":"Near-Term Future Sea-Level Projections Supported by Extrapolation of Tide-Gauge Observations","authors":"Jinping Wang, Xuebin Zhang, John A. Church, Matt King, Xianyao Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024GL112940","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL112940","url":null,"abstract":"Global, regional and local sea-level projections rely on complex process-based models of the climate-ocean-cryosphere system. While extrapolation of observational data has been examined on global and regional scales, this approach has not yet been used for the additional complexities of coastal sea-level projections. Here, we evaluate the sea-level trend and acceleration for a global network of 222 tide-gauge observations over 1970–2023, which are then extrapolated to provide local projections up to 2050 and compared with the process-based projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). For 2050 relative to 2020, the observation-based and medium-confidence AR6 projections agree within the likely range at 96% of tide-gauge locations. Despite larger spatial variability, the observation-based projections are usually well below the low-likelihood, high-impact AR6 projections. The observation-based projections provide complementary perspectives of near-term local sea-level changes, and this agreement provides increased confidence in the current understanding and projections of sea-level changes over coming decades.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL112940","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the Importance of Learning Non-Local Dynamics for Stable Data-Driven Climate Modeling: A 1D Gravity Wave-QBO Testbed 学习非局部动力学对稳定数据驱动气候模型的重要性：一维重力波qbo试验台

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114136

Hamid A. Pahlavan, Pedram Hassanzadeh, M. Joan Alexander

{"title":"On the Importance of Learning Non-Local Dynamics for Stable Data-Driven Climate Modeling: A 1D Gravity Wave-QBO Testbed","authors":"Hamid A. Pahlavan, Pedram Hassanzadeh, M. Joan Alexander","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114136","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL114136","url":null,"abstract":"Model instability remains a core challenge for data-driven parameterizations, especially those developed with supervised algorithms, and rigorous methods to address it are lacking. Here, by integrating machine learning (ML) theory with climate physics, we demonstrate the importance of learning spatially non-local dynamics using a 1D quasi-biennial oscillation model with parameterized gravity waves (GW) as a testbed. While common offline metrics fail to identify shortcomings in learning non-local dynamics, we show that the receptive field (RF) can identify instability a-priori. We find that neural network-based parameterizations, though predicting GW forcings from wind profiles with 99% accuracy, lead to unstable simulations when RFs are too small to capture non-local dynamics. Additionally, we demonstrate that learning non-local dynamics is crucial for the stability of a data-driven spatiotemporal emulator of the zonal wind field. This work underscores the need to integrate ML theory with physics in designing data-driven algorithms for climate modeling.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114136","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Downstream Hydrology Reduces Glaciers' Direct Contribution to Sea-Level Rise 下游水文减少了冰川对海平面上升的直接贡献

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL114866

David R. Rounce, Regine Hock, Alexander A. Prusevich, Danielle S. Grogan, Richard B. Lammers, Matthias Huss, Andrew Bliss, Botao Zan

引用次数: 0

Characteristics of Super Atmospheric Rivers Associated With Explosive Extratropical Cyclones Over the Northern Pacific Ocean 北太平洋上空与爆炸性温带气旋有关的超大气河流特征

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL114654

Y.-M. Peng, G. Fu, P.-Y. Li, J. Ni

引用次数: 0

Where Snow and Forest Meet: A Global Atlas 雪和森林相遇的地方：全球地图集

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113684

C. Deschamps-Berger, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Gascoin, G. Mazzotti, A. Boone

引用次数: 0

Electron Firehose Fluctuations Behind Anti-Dipolarization Front 反双极化前沿后的电子水龙波动

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114386

W. Z. Zhang, H. S. Fu, J. B. Cao, W. D. Fu, Z. Z. Guo, Z. Wang, C. Q. Wang, C. X. Du

{"title":"Electron Firehose Fluctuations Behind Anti-Dipolarization Front","authors":"W. Z. Zhang, H. S. Fu, J. B. Cao, W. D. Fu, Z. Z. Guo, Z. Wang, C. Q. Wang, C. X. Du","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114386","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL114386","url":null,"abstract":"Magnetic reconnection hosts regions of enhanced temperature anisotropy that could excite various kinetic instabilities and waves. However, the relation between electron firehose instability and the leading edge of tailward reconnection jets, as referred to anti-dipolarization fronts (ADFs), is still unclear. Here, for the first time, we provide direct observations of electron firehose fluctuations behind ADF by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. These compressible fluctuations converted by the bulk flow have zero frequency in the plasma frame and large wave normal angles with respect to the background magnetic fields, and appears simultaneously with parallel electron temperature anisotropy. Our results found that the wave properties of the observed fluctuations largely agree with kinetic theoretical predictions of the non-propagating electron firehose mode. Specifically, the threshold of electron oblique firehose instability is exceeded under local plasma parameters and such instability has a growth rate of <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>γ</mi>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.01</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>ω</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>c</mi>\u0000 <mi>e</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $gamma mathit{sim }0.01,{omega }_{ce}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. These findings improve our understanding of wave dynamics near the ADFs.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114386","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria 地质CO2封存中断层破裂的流体力学模拟：两种破坏准则的比较

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115250

M. Cao, Y. Guglielmi, J. Rutqvist, A. Cihan, S. Glubokovskikh, P. Jordan, M. Reagan, J. Birkholzer

{"title":"Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria","authors":"M. Cao, Y. Guglielmi, J. Rutqvist, A. Cihan, S. Glubokovskikh, P. Jordan, M. Reagan, J. Birkholzer","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115250","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL115250","url":null,"abstract":"The large-scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr-Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam-Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro-plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115250","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0