Ze Meng, Hui Yu, Baosheng Li, Jianhuang Qin, Rui Jin, Lei Zhou, Renhe Zhang
{"title":"The Critical Combined Effects of Intraseasonal Oscillations and Tropical Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Over Bay of Bengal During May","authors":"Ze Meng, Hui Yu, Baosheng Li, Jianhuang Qin, Rui Jin, Lei Zhou, Renhe Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117438","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in May can lead to severe meteorological hazards, underscoring the need to identify physical mechanisms with early‐warning potentials. This study quantifies over 90% of TCG events are influenced by northward‐propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), which transports enhanced low‐level vorticity, reduced vertical wind shear, mid‐level moisture and warm sea surface temperature from the equator to BoB. Most TCG events occur within 20 days after the equatorial intraseasonal convections, highlighting the latter as one early‐warning indicator. Diagnostics reveal the biweekly westward‐propagating equatorial Rossby (ER) waves help channel energy from the intraseasonal envelope into developing tropical disturbances for 86% cyclogenesis. These westward Rossby waves appear over Indochina‐South China Sea 5–10 days before TCG, also serving as a potential TCG indicator. By identifying the synergistic impact of ISOs and ER waves, this study offers scientific guidance for improving subseasonal prediction in this high‐risk region.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Projecting Future Ozone Episodes in China by 2060 Under Diverse Emission and Climate Pathways: Insights From Extreme Value Theory","authors":"Fengwei Wan, Lu Shen, Mingwei Li","doi":"10.1029/2025gl116891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116891","url":null,"abstract":"Ozone concentrations in China have been rising since 2013 despite emission reductions, yet future episode frequencies remain poorly investigated. In this study, we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to project ozone episode frequency in China by 2060, integrating six emission pathways and four climate scenarios. Under the baseline (most polluted) scenario, annual population‐weighted ozone exceedances (>82 ppb, national standard) reach 65 days nationally and 112 days in northern China by 2060, with climate change driving >50% of the increases. In the 1.5°C (cleanest) scenario, reduced emissions considerably lower ozone levels nationally, yet northern China still experiences 56 annual exceedances of the WHO Interim Target 2 (>61 ppb). Across all scenarios, ozone episode frequency and its temperature sensitivity continuously decline with anthropogenic NO<jats:sub><jats:italic>x</jats:italic></jats:sub> emissions reduction, highlighting the critical role of NO<jats:sub><jats:italic>x</jats:italic></jats:sub> mitigation in curbing ozone episodes.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Long Tan, Yang Zhou, Chuanhui Song, Lei Xing, Longhai Zhu, Nan Wang, Yonggang Jia, Zhe Su, Qiang Qiu, Baojin Wu, Cecilia McHugh, Rui Bao
{"title":"A 400‐Year Sediment Record of Tsunamis in Qi'ao Island, Centered at Guangdong‐Hong Kong‐Macao Greater Bay Area","authors":"Long Tan, Yang Zhou, Chuanhui Song, Lei Xing, Longhai Zhu, Nan Wang, Yonggang Jia, Zhe Su, Qiang Qiu, Baojin Wu, Cecilia McHugh, Rui Bao","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117291","url":null,"abstract":"Identifying tsunamis and determining inundation extent is critical for coastal hazard assessment. We identify potential tsunami deposits in the Guangdong‐Hong Kong‐Macao Greater Bay Area that occurred in 1555 ± 135 CE using a multidisciplinary approach. The inverted <jats:sup>14</jats:sup>C ages of organic matter in sediments, consistent dating of shells, and increased coarse‐grained content imply that a rapid, high‐energy event occurred in the Greater Bay Area. The presence of shell fossils, bimodal grain size distributions, the absence of laminar textures, and an increased concentration of the marine‐derived biomarker brassicasterol in the sediment sequence collectively suggest that these sediments are likely deposits from a tsunami. Tsunami simulations further indicate that larger earthquakes from the Manila Trench could be responsible for this tsunami in the Greater Bay Area. Our findings provide preliminary evidence that tsunamis may be a critical natural hazard concern for the densely populated Greater Bay Area.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disentangling Continental Weathering During the Late Paleozoic Ice Age","authors":"Biao Gao, Guozhen Xu, Wenli Yang, Jitao Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117395","url":null,"abstract":"The consumption of atmospheric CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> through continental weathering played a critical role in shaping the evolution of the late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA), presumably driven by the Hercynian orogeny and the evolution of terrestrial plants. However, the relative impacts of these two major drivers to continental weathering remain poorly constrained. The South China Block was located near the paleo‐equator under a relatively stable tectonic setting during the late Paleozoic, and therefore provides valuable insights into silicate weathering dynamics. Here, we report a 60‐Myr‐long record of the chemical index of alteration (CIA) from a continuously deposited slope succession in South China. By integrating existing records of weathering proxies, we concluded that the Hercynian orogeny played an overwhelming role in enhanced silicate weathering rates during 333–291 Ma, whereas paleotropical forest ecosystems demonstrated their significant influences on weathering patterns during their rapid expansion phase (333–316 Ma).","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tensor Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Turbulence","authors":"Shanghong Wang, Xu Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117615","url":null,"abstract":"Turbulent momentum transport critically influences tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity, but its multiscale characteristics remain poorly understood. Using two large eddy simulations, we investigate the Reynolds stress tensor and subfilter‐scale momentum flux tensor during rapid intensification and mature stages of an idealized TC. We find that both tensor type exhibit similar spatial patterns. The mean horizontal momentum fluxes have comparable or greater magnitudes than vertical fluxes, highlighting their essential contribution to angular momentum redistribution. The horizontal components of diffusive tendencies contribute at magnitudes comparable to the vertical components. Alignment analysis using tensor decomposition demonstrates that strain‐rotation interactions dominate turbulent stress transporting in the boundary layer, highlighting limitations in the classical Boussinesq hypothesis. These results highlight the need for turbulence closures that incorporate rotational effects.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nan Sun, Tao Huang, Jingyu Wang, Edward Park, Steve H. L. Yim
{"title":"Aerosols Shape the Vertical Structure of Convective Overshooting in Southeast Asia Through Microphysical Processes","authors":"Nan Sun, Tao Huang, Jingyu Wang, Edward Park, Steve H. L. Yim","doi":"10.1029/2025gl116841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116841","url":null,"abstract":"Convective overshooting significantly influences atmospheric material and energy cycles and can cause severe social impacts; nevertheless, aerosol effects on its microphysical structure and associated extreme weather remain unclear. Using a more accurate algorithm of detecting convective overshooting and 10 years of high‐resolution data, this paper investigated how aerosols affect convective overshooting, focusing on its long‐term patterns, three‐dimensional microphysical structure of precipitation such as particle size and concentration, as well as the relationship with extreme weather. Results show that convective overshooting occurred more frequently and intensely in the Maritime Continent, exhibiting a significant increasing trend. Aerosols exerted a stronger influence on convective overshooting during water vapor sufficient seasons, and polluted conditions produced larger but sparser raindrops, with raindrop diameters increasing by 1.2–1.76 times while concentration decreased by 20%. Moreover, aerosols enhanced convective overshooting impact on rain rates and lightning by 20% and 50%, respectively, nearly doubling the spatial influence area.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evidence of Power‐Law Scaling Regimes for Nanoscale‐Resolved Reaction Rates at Mineral‐Water Interfaces","authors":"C. Recalcati, M. Riva, A. Guadagnini","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118357","url":null,"abstract":"We report the first quantitative analysis of statistical scaling of dissolution rates driving nanoscale self‐organization of the interface between a mineral and flowing water. Our study provides evidence of emergence of cross‐over between two power‐law scaling regimes characterized by distinct levels of persistence. We tie these to the action of nanoscale features of dissolution patterns and capture experimental behaviors through a new theoretical framework. This opens unprecedented avenues to analyze chemical weathering imprinting alterations of mineral‐water interfaces.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"121 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Duncan A. Young, John D. Paden, Shuai Yan, Megan E. Kerr, Shivangini Singh, Alejandra Vega González, Shravan R. Kaundinya, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Kristian Chan, Gregory Ng, Dillon P. Buhl, Scott D. Kempf, Donald D. Blankenship
{"title":"Coupled Ice Sheet Structure and Bedrock Geology in the Deep Interior of East Antarctica: Results From Dome A and the South Pole Basin","authors":"Duncan A. Young, John D. Paden, Shuai Yan, Megan E. Kerr, Shivangini Singh, Alejandra Vega González, Shravan R. Kaundinya, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Kristian Chan, Gregory Ng, Dillon P. Buhl, Scott D. Kempf, Donald D. Blankenship","doi":"10.1029/2025gl115729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl115729","url":null,"abstract":"The deep interior of the East Antarctic Ice sheet likely contains important records of climate and ice sheet evolution. Here we report on a recent aerogeophysical survey of the southern flank of Dome A, over South Pole Basin. We find an extensive radioglaciologically defined basal unit under Dome A that abruptly truncates within South Pole Basin. This truncation aligns with a change of subglacial bed properties and distinct subglacial landforms. We infer that this basal unit may be slowly transporting and depositing material through local basal melting in South Pole Basin into an extensive, subglacially forming, sedimentary basin. In turn, this sedimentary basin may induce locally enhanced melting by hosting local groundwater.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"105 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Audrey Brouillet, Guillaume Coulaud, Dennis Shasha, Reza Akbarinia, Florent Masseglia
{"title":"ClimBurst: A Novel Method to Detect Climatological Anomalies Over Time and Space","authors":"Audrey Brouillet, Guillaume Coulaud, Dennis Shasha, Reza Akbarinia, Florent Masseglia","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117095","url":null,"abstract":"Detecting abnormal climate events across temporal and spatial scales is crucial to the understanding of local and regional climate trends. Existing methods often depend on prior knowledge about the timing, location, or duration of such events, limiting their versatility. This study introduces <jats:italic>ClimBurst</jats:italic>, an approach to detect climate bursts (unusually high or low values of climate variables) without prior assumptions about their temporal duration. ClimBurst offers the ability to: (a) identify climate bursts of any duration within the time series of single locations, (b) link climate bursts across neighboring locations, and (c) analyze the spatio‐temporal propagation of these anomalies. Applying ClimBurst to sea surface temperature data from the Mediterranean Sea (1960–2021) shows some detected hot bursts and anomalies coincide in time with known severe marine heatwaves. ClimBurst also shows how detected hot (cold) bursts are spatio‐temporally connected and this connected bursts have increased (decreased) in duration, intensity, spatial extent and frequency historically.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Creep of Talc at Subduction Zone Conditions: Implications for Slow Slip and Strength of the Lithosphere","authors":"Hannah S. Shabtian, Greg Hirth","doi":"10.1029/2025gl116641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116641","url":null,"abstract":"Talc can strongly influence the rheological properties of the subduction interface. Despite geologic evidence for talc at the interface, and proposed links between its rheology and slow slip events, few experiments have been conducted on talc at relevant conditions. We conducted constant‐load shear deformation experiments on talc aggregates at 1 GPa confining pressure, 420–700°C, and <150 MPa shear stress, and derived a low temperature plasticity flow law at lithospheric conditions. We show that tectonic displacement rates can be accommodated on talc‐rich shear zones with effective viscosities as low as Pa·s, and that slow slip displacement rates can be accommodated by a meters‐thick talc‐dominated shear zone, with strain rates orders of magnitude greater than antigorite at the same conditions. These observations indicate that talc can significantly weaken the lithosphere, and influence the dynamics of subduction and other tectonic processes when it is present in abundance.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}