Luke L. B. Davis, David W. J. Thompson, Maria Rugenstein, Thomas Birner
{"title":"Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change","authors":"Luke L. B. Davis, David W. J. Thompson, Maria Rugenstein, Thomas Birner","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112774","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the relationships between internal variability and forced climate feedbacks is key for using observations to constrain future climate change. Here we probe and interpret the differences in these relationships between the climate change projections provided by the CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiment ensembles. We find that internal variability feedbacks better predict forced feedbacks in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 by over 50%, and that the increased predictability derives primarily from the slow (>20 years) response to climate change. A key novel result is that the increased predictability is consistent with the higher resemblance between the patterns of internal and forced temperature changes in CMIP6, which suggests temperature pattern effects play a key role in predicting forced climate feedbacks. Despite the increased predictability, emergent constraints provided by observed internal variability are weak and largely unchanged from CMIP5 to CMIP6 due to the shortness of the observational record.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Natael Bernardo, Victor Martins-Gomes, Clarisse Bordes, Daniel Brito
{"title":"Seismoelectric Conversion at Poroelastic/Elastic Interfaces and the Role of Dielectric Permittivity: Experimental and Numerical Analysis","authors":"Natael Bernardo, Victor Martins-Gomes, Clarisse Bordes, Daniel Brito","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112994","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112994","url":null,"abstract":"Seismoelectric phenomena, caused by electrokinetic coupling between seismic and electromagnetic fields, have attracted significant interest in geological reservoir characterization for their sensitivity to pore-fluid contrasts. Consequently, most studies have focused on seismic-to-electromagnetic conversions at fluid/poroelastic and poroelastic/poroelastic interfaces. However, when investigating permeable zones in unfractured media, often associated with geothermal reservoirs, poroelastic/elastic interfaces must be considered. To address this, we conducted laboratory and numerical experiments using a container filled with quartz sand saturated with a NaCl solution, with one of five thin layers made of different materials (four elastic and one poroelastic) embedded within the sand. Our numerical simulations assume an elastic medium as poroelastic using limiting values for certain physical parameters. The results confirm that seismoelectric conversion occurs at poroelastic/elastic transitions, showing a strong agreement between experiments and simulations. Furthermore, we inferred that the amplitudes of electromagnetic waves generated at poroelastic/elastic interfaces are mainly controlled by contrasts of dielectric permittivity.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"261 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bin Guo, Feng Zhang, Zhijun Zhao, Jinyu Guo, Wenwen Li
{"title":"Retrieval of Cloud Macro-Physical Properties Using theFY-4A Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) and the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS)","authors":"Bin Guo, Feng Zhang, Zhijun Zhao, Jinyu Guo, Wenwen Li","doi":"10.1029/2024gl109772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109772","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a novel approach for conducting all-day retrieval of cloud macro-physical properties (single-layer cloud phase, cloud top height, and cloud base height for optical thickness less than 10) using the Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) and the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) onboard the geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-4A based on machine learning methods. Model accuracy was compared after integrating ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA-5) data, atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, and GIIRS clear-column radiance. Results demonstrate that integrating GIIRS clear-column radiances can enhance the precision of cloud phase classification and the retrieval of cloud macro-physical properties. This effectively replaces the role of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, which are typically required for thermal infrared remote sensing retrieval. Moreover, the issue of delayed acquisition of ERA-5 atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles is mitigated, enabling near real-time and all-day retrieval of cloud macro-physical properties.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"147 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Distribution of Interseismic Coupling Along the Maidan Fault in Tianshan Before the 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi Earthquake","authors":"Xiaohang Wang, Caijun Xu, Yangmao Wen, Xiong Zhao, Shuai Wang, Guangyu Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111472","url":null,"abstract":"Despite historically low seismic activity on the Maidan Fault (MDF), the sudden Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake in early 2024 underscores the urgent need to assess the seismic risk on this fault. This study utilizes Global Navigation Satellite System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling before the Wushi event along the MDF. The four asperities we identified indicate a high seismic risk for the MDF, with potential magnitudes of Mw 7.5–7.6, Mw 7.5–7.7, Mw 7.0–7.2, and Mw 6.8–7.0. Specifically, the Maierkaiqi segment has already accumulated seismic moment comparable to previous event. Furthermore, our comparison of the interseismic coupling model with the coseismic rupture of the Wushi earthquake reveals that the shallow compliant zone, creeping patches, and irregular fault geometry collectively constrained the rupture propagation. The consistency between the rupture and high coupling area also suggests that the obtained coupling distribution may represent potential earthquake-prone zones along the MDF.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Study on the Positive Temperature Anomalies in East Antarctica During the Winter of 2018","authors":"Yulong Shan, Jinfeng Ding, Xiaoqian Zhu, Wei Qi, Lei Liu, Xichuan Liu, Minghu Ding","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111904","url":null,"abstract":"East Antarctica has experienced significant positive temperature anomalies during winter 2018, with Zhongshan (ZS) station recording its highest winter average temperature since 2008 and fourth highest since its establishment in 1989. This study employs observational data and ERA5 reanalysis to diagnose the phenomenon, revealing that temperature anomalies at 300 hPa are mainly driven by advection and adiabatic processes, which is the second highest recorded from 2000 to 2020. However, diabatic process are significantly important at 700 hPa, being the third highest during the period. The reduction in sea ice, combined with enhanced sinking motion and increased sea-air temperature difference, together contributes to the variations of diabatic heating. The increased precipitation, exceeding the historical average by 100% along the southwestern shore of Prydz Bay, further induces localized warming. The increased atmospheric pressure associated with the negative Southern Annular Mode phase is the primary cause influencing the advection, adiabatic, and diabatic processes.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"268 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Equinox Transitions of Thermosphere O/N2 and Meridional Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as Observed by NASA's GOLD and ICON Missions","authors":"Q. Gan, L. Qian, N. M. Pedatella, R. W. Eastes","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111810","url":null,"abstract":"Leveraging the unique perspective enabled by Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk, we examined the characteristics of equinox transitions in the thermospheric column integrated ratio of atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen (O/N<sub>2</sub>) in the Northern Hemisphere. We found that the timing of the O/N<sub>2</sub> equinox transition from winter to summer or vice versa exhibits a progression with latitude, particularly, near spring equinox. The O/N<sub>2</sub> equinox transition is far slower during spring compared to fall, leading to a remarkable seasonal asymmetry. Ionospheric Connection Explorer observed a prominent asymmetry in the summer-to-winter circulation in the middle to upper thermosphere, implying that the inter-hemispheric circulation plays a crucial role in the O/N<sub>2</sub> equinox transition. Additionally, since the wave-driven meridional circulation in the lower thermosphere displays a seasonal asymmetry between the northward-to-southward and southward-to-northward transitions, we would anticipate that the O/N<sub>2</sub> equinox transition is also influenced by the lower atmospheric forcing.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xucheng Zhao, Ke Jiang, Shuyu Ou'yang, Yaojie Li, Yang Wang, Jiandong Wang, Nan Zhao, Guofeng Shen
{"title":"Global Biomass Burning Emission Contributions to Ice Nucleating Particles","authors":"Xucheng Zhao, Ke Jiang, Shuyu Ou'yang, Yaojie Li, Yang Wang, Jiandong Wang, Nan Zhao, Guofeng Shen","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111881","url":null,"abstract":"Biomass burning (BB) can produce ice nucleating particles (INPs) and influence cloud ice formation and climate effects, but the distribution and budget of BB-induced INPs are not well understood. This study quantified INPs from BB at −17°C to −30°C and explored their spatiotemporal distributions. The results indicate that the INPs of BB aerosol were 5.42 × 10<sup>21</sup> in 2019, approximately two orders of magnitude lower than those of dust aerosol, but much more than those of marine organic aerosol. Globally, INPs from BB were mainly influenced by wildfires, but in regions like East Asia, residential BB contributed significantly, accounting for about 57%. INPs from BB would have more pronounced effects in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and parts of the Southern Hemisphere, particularly during peak wildfire periods. Thus, BB should be unignorable in evaluating the fates and impacts of INPs.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. Koch, S. Gascoin, K. Achmüller, P. Schattan, K.-F. Wetzel, C. Deschamps-Berger, M. Lehning, T. Rehm, K. Schulz, C. Voigt
{"title":"Superconducting Gravimeter Observations Show That a Satellite-Derived Snow Depth Image Improves the Simulation of the Snow Water Equivalent Evolution in a High Alpine Site","authors":"F. Koch, S. Gascoin, K. Achmüller, P. Schattan, K.-F. Wetzel, C. Deschamps-Berger, M. Lehning, T. Rehm, K. Schulz, C. Voigt","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112483","url":null,"abstract":"The lack of accurate information on the spatiotemporal variations of snow water equivalent (SWE) in mountain catchments remains a key problem in snow hydrology and water resources management. This is partly because there is no sensor to measure SWE beyond local scale. At Mt. Zugspitze, Germany, a superconducting gravimeter senses the gravity effect of the seasonal snow, reflecting the temporal evolution of SWE in a few kilometers scale radius. We used this new observation to evaluate two configurations of the Alpine3D distributed snow model. In the default run, the model was forced with meteorological station data. In the second run, we applied precipitation correction based on an 8 m resolution snow depth image derived from satellite observations (Pléiades). The snow depth image strongly improved the simulation of the snowpack gravity effect during the melt season. This result suggests that satellite observations can enhance SWE analyses in mountains with limited infrastructure.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"88 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nitin Ravinder, Andrew Shepherd, Inès Otosaka, Thomas Slater, Alan Muir, Lin Gilbert
{"title":"Greenland Ice Sheet Elevation Change From CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2","authors":"Nitin Ravinder, Andrew Shepherd, Inès Otosaka, Thomas Slater, Alan Muir, Lin Gilbert","doi":"10.1029/2024gl110822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110822","url":null,"abstract":"Although fluctuations in ice sheet surface mass balance lead to seasonal and interannual elevation changes, it is unclear if they are resolved differently by radar and laser satellite altimeters. We compare methods of computing elevation change from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 over the Greenland Ice Sheet to assess their consistency and to quantify recent change. Solutions exist such that interannual trends in the interior and the ablation zone agree to within −0.2 ± 1.5 and 3.3 ± 6.0 cm/yr, respectively, and that seasonal cycle amplitudes within the ablation zone agree to within 3.5 ± 38.0 cm. The agreement is best in the north where the measurements are relatively dense and worst in the southeast where the terrain is rugged. Using both missions, we estimate Greenland lost 196 ± 37 km<sup>3</sup>/yr of volume between 2010 and 2022 with an interannual variability of 129 km<sup>3</sup>/yr.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peter J. Marinescu, Susan C. van den Heever, Leah D. Grant, Jennie Bukowski, Itinderjot Singh
{"title":"How Much Convective Environment Subgrid Spatial Variability Is Missing Within Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets?","authors":"Peter J. Marinescu, Susan C. van den Heever, Leah D. Grant, Jennie Bukowski, Itinderjot Singh","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111856","url":null,"abstract":"Convective cloud processes are sensitive to environmental conditions that vary on scales smaller than reanalysis data sets (sub-reanalysis scales). Convective environment variability within areas representative of reanalysis data sets is quantified using large-domain, high-resolution (∆<i>x</i> = 100 m) simulations of convective cloud systems throughout the tropics and subtropics. Even after removing locations of resolved clouds and precipitation, convective environment parameters vary significantly on these scales. For example, for half of the simulated data, 500 hPa relative humidity varies by ∼30% within a typical reanalysis area. Surface winds, convective available potential energy, and middle-tropospheric moisture are the most variable convective environment parameters for both continental and maritime regimes, while above-surface temperature and winds are the least variable. While high-resolution, sub-reanalysis-scale extrema are well-correlated with the reanalysis-area mean values, some of the most extreme convective environments can occur within regions with moderate reanalysis-area mean values, particularly for continental regions.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}