{"title":"Projected Changes of the Northern Annular Mode Linked to Seasonality of the ENSO Teleconnection","authors":"T. Kawamura, Y. Kosaka, S. Okajima, H. Nakamura","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118175","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL118175","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) induces anomalous wintertime weather over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere as the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability. Yet, modulations of its statistical properties in a changing climate need elucidating. This study investigates the seasonality of NAM variability and its modulations under global warming with a large-ensemble atmospheric simulation data set. We find that the Aleutian Low anomaly associated with the NAM strengthens in a warmer climate, which is linked to a seasonally earlier emergence of the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw (AIS). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection extends more eastward under global warming, which increases the ENSO-NAM correlation through the earlier AIS development. Our findings suggest increased predictability of the NAM under global warming, with uncertainties due to potential ENSO changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145084120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. Allegrini, J. R. Szalay, D. J. McComas, R. W. Ebert, S. J. Bolton, G. Clark, J. E. P. Connerney, W. S. Kurth, P. Louarn, B. Mauk, A. Pontoni, J. Saur, P. Valek, J.-Z. Wang, R. J. Wilson
{"title":"Detection of Negative Carbon and Oxygen Pickup Ions From Dust Orbiting Jupiter","authors":"F. Allegrini, J. R. Szalay, D. J. McComas, R. W. Ebert, S. J. Bolton, G. Clark, J. E. P. Connerney, W. S. Kurth, P. Louarn, B. Mauk, A. Pontoni, J. Saur, P. Valek, J.-Z. Wang, R. J. Wilson","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117406","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117406","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We report on observations of negative carbon and oxygen pickup ions (PUIs) originating from dust orbiting Jupiter. The PUIs are observed at altitudes of a few thousand kilometers (∼4,800–10,200 km) above the 1-bar level of Jupiter's atmosphere and up to ∼11,000–15,000 km from the equatorial plane, thus providing constraints on the location of the dust population and its composition. The Jovian Auroral Distributions Experiment–Electron sensors on Juno detect these PUIs because of the combination of a fast-moving spacecraft and the large Keplerian orbital speed of the dust near Jupiter. We demonstrate that this scenario is consistent with the observations. We find a PUI C/O ratio of 10 ± 5 and a PUI energy release of ∼11 ± 9 eV. Electron stimulated desorption is a likely process for creating these PUIs. The dust is well inside the halo population and likely carbonaceous.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117406","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145088921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peiqiang Xu, James A. Screen, Lin Wang, Tim Woollings, Hanjie Fan, Matthew Patterson, Zizhen Dong
{"title":"Impact of Asian Summer Monsoon on the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave: Can It? Did It?","authors":"Peiqiang Xu, James A. Screen, Lin Wang, Tim Woollings, Hanjie Fan, Matthew Patterson, Zizhen Dong","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117205","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117205","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the role of Asian summer monsoon in the unprecedented 2021 Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatwave. We address this by separating it into two relevant but independent questions: Can monsoon activity observed prior to the event impact PNW climate, and did it specifically impact the 2021 PNW heatwave? Based on observational diagnostics, numerical experiments, and subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts, our results consistently indicate although the monsoon activity can exert a cooling effect on the PNW, on average, it had a warming influence in the specific case of 2021 and thus contributed to the heatwave that summer. The contrasting answers to the <i>“can it”</i> and <i>“did it”</i> questions highlight how background flow and specific forcing pattern during the event can modulate—or even reverse—the expected impact. We advocate future work exploring the link between large-scale climatic drivers and extremes should be undertaken in an event-specific context to better understand these relationships.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117205","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lu Wang, Xiaolong Chen, Yan Zhao, Tianjun Zhou, Lin Chen, Ming Sun
{"title":"Enhanced Trans-Seasonal ENSO Impact on East Asian-Western Pacific Climate in Warmer Future: An Emergent Constraint From Multi-Large Ensembles","authors":"Lu Wang, Xiaolong Chen, Yan Zhao, Tianjun Zhou, Lin Chen, Ming Sun","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116648","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116648","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Predicting the boreal summer climate over East Asia and the western Pacific is crucial for communities preparing for extreme events. A key source of predictability is the strong connection between the western North Pacific anomalous circulation (WNPAC) and the preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the potential change of this link under future greenhouse warming remains uncertain due to substantial internal variability and inter-model discrepancies. Here, by leveraging emergent constraints from multi-large ensemble simulations, we show that the trans-seasonal ENSO-WNPAC correlation robustly strengthens under high-emission scenarios, with a 67% reduction in the projection uncertainty. This enhancement indicates a 9% increase in the ENSO-contributed predictability (explained variance) of summer WNPAC. The spread across models primarily derives from their differing representations of ENSO-decaying regimes. Our results indicate a more predictable East Asian-western Pacific summer climate in a warmer world, offering encouraging prospects for adapting to anticipated increases in extremes associated with WNPAC.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116648","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Richard M. Sullivan, Elizabeth Wallace, Sylvia Dee, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Kerry Emanuel
{"title":"Multi-Centennial Spatial Coherency Among Atlantic Tropical Cyclones From Simulated and Reconstructed Storm Records","authors":"Richard M. Sullivan, Elizabeth Wallace, Sylvia Dee, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Kerry Emanuel","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116642","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116642","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Proxy-based reconstructions of long-term Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) variability reveal low-frequency oscillations in regional TC landfalls over the Common Era. However, the limited spatial coverage and increased uncertainty of the proxy records complicates assessments of this feature. Here we present a new multi-ensemble set of synthetic TCs downscaled from the Last Millennium Reanalysis project, which is based on sea surface temperatures that more accurately reflect past conditions. Throughout ensemble members, there are coherent multi-centennial shifts in landfalls with persistent intervals of increased (decreased) occurrence along the eastern US concurrent with inverse activity in the southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, associated with basin-scale redistributions of storm tracks. The emergent TC-dipole from modeled climate provides context and support for its presence within proxy-reconstructions. Furthermore, dipole recurrence across ensembles demonstrates that it arises from sea surface temperature-informed climate processes. However, timing differences between ensembles indicate that transient atmospheric variability influences dipole position.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116642","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145084114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vadim Levin, Huaiyu Yuan, Ruth Murdie, Klaus Gessner, Raphael Quentin de Gromard, Megan Miller
{"title":"Building Blocks of Cratonic Lithosphere in Southwestern Australia: Early Results of WA Array","authors":"Vadim Levin, Huaiyu Yuan, Ruth Murdie, Klaus Gessner, Raphael Quentin de Gromard, Megan Miller","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117119","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117119","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using data from Western Australia (WA) Array—a decadal data acquisition project by the State government of WA—we construct a seismic profile crossing major tectonic units of the region. We perform converted-wave imaging of vertical gradients in seismic impedance and rock texture in conjunction with ambient noise tomography constraints on bulk seismic properties. With ∼40 km station spacing, we can detect lateral variations in seismic properties that correspond to major tectonic units. We outline lithospheric regions with similar seismic properties, and demonstrate the importance of interpreting seismic signatures of rock fabric. We show that major tectonic boundaries are inclined, identify an apparently cratonic fragment within the Proterozoic Albany–Fraser Orogen, refine boundaries of Neoarchean tectonic domains in the southwestern Yilgarn Craton, and document focused deformation at the crust-mantle boundary beneath one of these domains. Our findings strengthen the notion of cratonic lithosphere as a mosaic of distinct tectonic domains.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117119","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145084117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hai-Quan Liu, Jie Li, Thierry Calmus, Alfredo Aguillón-Robles, Le Zhang, Long Zhang, Xiao-Long Huang, Yi-Gang Xu
{"title":"Radiogenic and Stable Isotope Evidence for Recycling of Ancient Oceanic Crust in High-Nb Basalts From Baja California, Mexico","authors":"Hai-Quan Liu, Jie Li, Thierry Calmus, Alfredo Aguillón-Robles, Le Zhang, Long Zhang, Xiao-Long Huang, Yi-Gang Xu","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115035","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL115035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The genesis of high-Nb basalts (HNB) in subduction zones remains controversial, attributed to melting products of metasomatized mantle linked to recent or ancient subduction events. Here we present radiogenic isotope and molybdenum compositions for post-subduction HNBs and adakites from Baja California, Mexico. The HNBs show more radiogenic Sr-Pb and less unradiogenic Nd-Hf isotopes compared to the adakites. Their Mo isotopic enrichment (δ<sup>98/95</sup>Mo), up to −0.12‰ relative to the depleted mantle (−0.21‰), is linked to FOZO (Focal Zone)-like Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotopic signatures. These features indicate compositional contribution of recycled, ancient oceanic crust (>1 Gyr), carrying heavy Mo under reduced conditions through serpentinite-related interactions and losing varying amounts of Rb, Nd, Hf, and Pb relative to bulk oceanic crust during subduction dehydration. Our new data reveal ancient contributions to HNB formation and underscore the role of subducted oceanic crust and serpentinite to the formation of FOZO mantle signatures.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145089927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sergio Gammaldi, Iván Cabrera-Pérez, Ivan Koulakov, Luca D’Auria, Graziella Barberi, Rubén García-Hernández, David Martínez van Dorth, Víctor Ortega-Ramos, Janire Prudencio, Monika Przeor, Jesús M. Ibáñez
{"title":"Seismic Tomography of a Newborn Volcano","authors":"Sergio Gammaldi, Iván Cabrera-Pérez, Ivan Koulakov, Luca D’Auria, Graziella Barberi, Rubén García-Hernández, David Martínez van Dorth, Víctor Ortega-Ramos, Janire Prudencio, Monika Przeor, Jesús M. Ibáñez","doi":"10.1029/2025GL114932","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL114932","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On 19 September 2021, in La Palma, Canary Islands (Spain), a new volcano, later named Tajogaite, erupted. We determined the shallow seismic tomography model of Tajogaite Volcano, including the 3D distributions of Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs. The tomography of the volcanic edifice has been performed using a combination of a three-component amplitude method for seismic event detection and a sophisticated deep neural network method for picking first arrival times, which allowed the detection and the picking of thousands of earthquakes from a data set recorded by a temporary network deployed around the main crater just a few months after the end of the eruption. We identified shallow low Vp/Vs and deeper high Vp/Vs anomalies, which we interpret as changes in the fluid filling the rocks, transitioning from liquid to steam at shallower low-pressure conditions. Our work highlights, for the first time, the internal structure of a monogenetic volcano, specifically its evolving local hydrothermal system, right after its eruption.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114932","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145083897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, Gabriele Messori, Rachel H. White
{"title":"Representing the Teleconnection Between the Jet Stream and Extreme Cold Air Outbreaks Over North America","authors":"Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, Gabriele Messori, Rachel H. White","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116984","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116984","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Jet streams are narrow bands of fast-flowing air in the atmosphere. Features of jet streams such as large amplitude waves can be used to quantify <i>teleconnections</i> leading to extreme weather. In this study, we examine extreme cold air outbreaks over three regions of North America, a region influenced by the North Pacific jet. This research provides evidence that representing the jet stream using a jet-core algorithm—a method for extracting the 3-dimensional coordinates of fast-flowing wind—could contribute new information for understanding links between the North Pacific jet and climate patterns. We demonstrate that zonal relationships between atmospheric circulation and extreme weather appear more clearly in short-term fluctations when using methods that explicitly extract the jet stream versus using geopotential, a more common technique. We highlight that spatial relationships between the jet stream and extreme conditions over North America are difficult to examine using only simple indices of climate patterns or jet characteristics.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116984","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145084115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Flow-Induced Compaction Localization in a Rock-Like Medium","authors":"Arnold Bachrach, Yaniv Edery","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116207","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116207","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fluid injection into underground rocks plays a crucial role in various geoengineering applications. While injection-induced deformation is often associated with tensile and shear failures, the feasibility of flow-driven compaction localization remains largely unexplored. In this study, we investigate the formation of compaction localizations in a rock-like porous medium composed of sintered polymethyl methacrylate beads, using high-resolution image analysis. By tracking deformation in real-time, we reveal a complex localization process that couples compaction with shear. Moreover, following the initial localization, we observe a transient loss and subsequent recovery of stiffness within the medium. These findings suggest that flow-induced compaction localizations likely play a significant role in field-scale deformation processes, particularly in high-porosity rock formations subjected to pressurized flow.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116207","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145084121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}