Geophysical Research Letters最新文献

{"title":"Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies","authors":"Eduardo Blanchard-Wrigglesworth,&nbsp;Roberto Bilbao,&nbsp;Aaron Donohoe,&nbsp;Stefano Materia","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115614","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global mean temperature rapidly warmed during 2023, making 2023 the second warmest year on record at 1.45°C above pre-industrial climate, and 2024 became the first year on record to surpass 1.5°C. Here we explore the likelihood, mechanisms, and predictability of the rapid warming during 2023 with CMIP simulations and a fully-coupled forecast ensemble initialized on 1 November 2022. The year-to-year (Y2Y) warming for the second half of 2023 of 0.49°C equaled the largest on record since 1850, and is simulated as a 1 in 6,000 years event. The forecast ensemble-mean predicts about 75% of the observed warming during 2023. The remaining 25% of the warming lies within the forecast spread, with members that forecast a strong 2023 El Niño and positive absorbed shortwave anomalies more likely to forecast the entirety of the observed warming. The forecast ensemble succesfully predicts 2024 to be the first year on record above 1.5°C.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115614","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oceanic Feedback to the Atmosphere for Anomalous SST Events Peaking in Early Winter in the Northeast Pacific","authors":"Xi Hu,&nbsp;Jian Shi,&nbsp;Xiaohui Ma,&nbsp;Yanjing Tang,&nbsp;Zhao Jing","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115562","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the past decade, large-scale and persistent warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) occurred frequently in the mid-latitude Northeast Pacific (NEP), offering a valuable opportunity to further illuminate the oceanic feedback to the atmosphere, which has been a complex issue for mid-latitude ocean-atmosphere interaction. Previous studies reported that the prolonged warm SSTAs in the NEP are usually passively triggered by atmospheric high-pressure anomalies. In this study, results show that the early winter positive SSTAs can actively reverse the high-pressure anomalies into low-pressure anomalies within the whole troposphere through diabatic heating and transient eddy vorticity forcing. However, when the positive SSTAs appear in mid-winter, the atmospheric preconditioning of warm air temperature anomalies related to the high-pressure anomalies prevents oceanic thermodynamic and dynamics feedback onto the atmosphere, which results in no reversal of the high-pressure anomalies. Therefore, the atmospheric state is an important factor in initiating the mid-latitude oceanic feedback to the atmosphere.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115562","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neon Isotopes in Geothermal Gases From the Kenya Rift Reveal a Common Deep Mantle Source Beneath East Africa","authors":"Biying Chen,&nbsp;Domokos Györe,&nbsp;Thecla Mutia,&nbsp;Finlay M. Stuart","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115169","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The seismic velocity structure beneath East Africa suggests interconnected corridors of hot mantle are upwelling beneath the continent. However, the geochemical evidence for deep mantle in Ethiopia-Kenya-Tanzania volcanism is sparse questioning the existence of superplume. The development of new geothermal fields in the region offers the opportunity to access high temperature magmatic-hydrothermal fluids. Well gases from the geothermal field in the Menengai caldera in the central Kenya Rift have C-He isotope systematics that are dominated by magmatic volatiles. High precision Ne isotope data confirm a primordial deep mantle that has experienced long-term convective isolation like that beneath Hawaii is present beneath the Kenyan rift. The Ne isotope composition of the gases is indistinguishable from volatiles in basalts from the Afar plume and Western Rift (and significantly more precise) providing the first geochemical evidence for a common deep mantle beneath the entirety of the East African Rift System.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115169","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biological Cohesion of Sediment Bed Diminishes Net Deposition of Fine Non-Cohesive Particles Over Bare Bed and Within Model Emergent Canopies","authors":"Hyoungchul Park,&nbsp;Heidi Nepf","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115331","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigated how Extracelluar Polymetric Substances (EPS) produced by microorganisms influenced particle deposition to a sediment bed. The particle deposition decreased with increasing EPS, because the EPS filled the pore spaces between individual sediment grains, reducing the porosity of the sediment bed. With decreased porosity, newly deposited particles could not settle in between the grains of the bed, so that particles were more exposed to the flow, making resuspension easier and leading to decreased deposition. For the same level of bio-cohesion, increasing the near-bed turbulence diminished deposition. For the vegetated channel, as bio-cohesion increased, particles were easily resuspended around individual stems due to the enhanced exposure effect, expanding the regions where deposition was excluded and leading to a more heterogeneous spatial distribution of deposition. The effect of EPS was negligible for the smallest velocity magnitude, for which all particles deposited, and for largest velocity magnitude, for which most particles were resuspended.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115331","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In Situ Analysis of Jupiter's Broadband Kilometric Auroral Radio Emissions With Juno","authors":"B. Collet,&nbsp;L. Lamy,&nbsp;C. K. Louis,&nbsp;V. Hue,&nbsp;T. K. Kim","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114447","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Among the zoo of Jovian auroral radio emissions, the broadband kilometric (bKOM) component has been the least studied. Taking advantage of Juno in situ measurements within the auroral regions, we surveyed the Juno/Waves radio observations over the 60 first orbits to identify 7 bKOM source candidates. These were mostly detected during dawn storm auroral episodes (4/7) and three were found to be colocated with auroral cavities. By applying a growth rate analysis based on JADE-E electron measurements, we show that the observed waves are driven by the Cyclotron Maser Instability from two free energy sources. The main emission, produced slightly above the electron gyrofrequency <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mfenced>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>f</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>c</mi>\u0000 <mi>e</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mfenced>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $left({f}_{ce}right)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, is amplified by conics-type electron distribution functions (EDF) with 2–30 keV electron characteristic energies. Sporadic bursts, produced slightly below <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>f</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>c</mi>\u0000 <mi>e</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${f}_{ce}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, are driven by shell-type EDF of 0.1–10 keV. These results are analyzed comparatively to those obtained previously for Jovian hectometric and decametric emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114447","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143938926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal Contrasts in the Trends of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Track Density in China (1949–2023)","authors":"Fang Wang,&nbsp;Jiuwei Zhao,&nbsp;Ruifen Zhan,&nbsp;Chaoxia Yuan,&nbsp;Xiangbo Feng,&nbsp;Yaheng Tan","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114482","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The landfalling tropical cyclone track density (LTD) in China has shown an overall decreasing trend over the western North Pacific (WNP) while revealing an increase along the coastal East China (CEC) in the past several decades. This study further elucidates that the long-term LTD trend in the CEC exhibits a pronounced seasonal contrast that there is a significant increase from August to October, whereas a decline is observed from May to July. This seasonal reversal in the CEC LTD trend is attributed to the northward migration of an intensified diabatic heating source from May to October under global warming. This result is supported by a linear baroclinic model that incorporates realistic precipitation trends to parameterize diabatic heating over the WNP. Our finding underscores the critical role of local warming in modulating LTD trends, emphasizing its seasonal dependence rather than relying solely on sea surface temperature changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114482","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Distribution of Dust Devil Tracks on Mars","authors":"Ingrid J. Daubar,&nbsp;Rachel Hausmann,&nbsp;Matthew Chojnacki,&nbsp;Matthew Golombek,&nbsp;Ralph D. Lorenz,&nbsp;James Wray,&nbsp;Susan Conway,&nbsp;Valentin T. Bickel","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114393","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL114393","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dust devils are dust-raising atmospheric vortices that leave tracks of surface disturbance. In the first high-resolution global survey of martian dust devil tracks (DDTs), we find them in 4% of High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images 2014–2018. They are concentrated near ±60° latitude and peak in local summer, more frequently in the southern hemisphere summer (L_S ∼ 250°–320°), coinciding with peak heating. DDT formation does not correlate with elevation, indicating it does not depend on ambient atmospheric pressure. Locations and timing of DDTs are similar to active dust devils, with several regional exceptions. DDTs are most common in areas characterized by low albedo and moderate thermal inertia, where thin layers of dust overlie larger-grained material that provides an albedo contrast when uncovered by the passage of an atmospheric vortex. In addition to revealing the nature and formation of DDTs, this study has implications for solar-powered exploration of Mars, identifying potential dust-clearing event regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114393","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143933349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time Evolution of Dehydration-Induced Stick-Slip Behaviors of Simulated Bassanite Gouges","authors":"M. Kawabata,&nbsp;R. Shiraishi,&nbsp;J. Muto,&nbsp;H. Nagahama,&nbsp;Y. Sasaki,&nbsp;M. Iwasaki","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115114","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL115114","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Pore pressure by dehydrating hydrous minerals can trigger deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes. We performed friction experiments on simulated bassanite gouges under various confining pressures and temperatures. At room temperature (RT), stress drops and recurrence intervals of stick-slip events varied with confining pressures. Under a confining pressure of 200 MPa and 110°C, stress drops and recurrence intervals decreased over time. Microstructures indicate that gouges deformed under RT contain numerous Riedel shears. On the other hand, a sample deformed under the confining pressure of 200 MPa and 110°C had few Riedel shear planes. Above observations indicate that the elevated pore pressure by the dehydration of bassanite gouges reduces the effective pressures controlling slip behaviors and suppresses the development of shear planes. We derived time function of dehydration-driven pore pressure evolution using Avrami kinetics, which can be expressed by the Weibull distribution function representing the failure probability. Our result shows that the kinetics-driven pore fluid evolution controlled the stick-slip behaviors of the bassanite gouges.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115114","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143933351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the F-Region Ionospheric Plasma Density Distribution and Irregularities Response During the May-2024 Geomagnetic Storm Observed by LEO Satellites","authors":"S. K. Das,&nbsp;C. Stolle,&nbsp;Y. Yamazaki,&nbsp;J. Rodríguez-Zuluaga,&nbsp;X. Wan,&nbsp;G. Kervalishvili,&nbsp;J. Rauberg,&nbsp;J. Zhong,&nbsp;S. Perwitasari","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115780","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115780","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the F-region plasma density and irregularities response during the May-2024 storm using Swarm and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data. Swarm-B provided measurements at 11/23 LTs. Data from GRACE-FO and Swarm-A were collected at 05/17 and 07/19 LTs. Following the storm's commencement on May 10, the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) was particularly strong (depleted) on the dayside (nightside). An intensification of the EIA was observed during the early morning 05/07 LTs. Variability during the storm's initial and recovery phases indicate the strong influence of electric fields and thermospheric winds. The magnitude of the EIA was greater during the Halloween storm, but the EIA's relative variabilities were of similar order. Equatorial plasma depletion (EPD) was observed, with apex altitudes reaching <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>5,000 km before midnight on May 11 and <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>3,400 km in the early morning. We suggest that the morning EPDs are generated after mid-night rather than being remnants from the previous evening.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115780","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143939415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Absence of Elevation-Dependent Warming in Antarctica Inferred From Blue Ice Paleoclimate Records","authors":"Etienne Legrain,&nbsp;Veronica Tollenaar,&nbsp;Steven Goderis,&nbsp;Lisa Ardoin,&nbsp;Pierre-Henri Blard,&nbsp;Philippe Claeys,&nbsp;Raúl R. Cordero,&nbsp;Vinciane Debaille,&nbsp;François Fripiat,&nbsp;Philippe Huybrechts,&nbsp;Naoya Imae,&nbsp;Maaike Izeboud,&nbsp;Frank Pattyn,&nbsp;Hamed Pourkhorsandi,&nbsp;Julien Seguinot,&nbsp;Naoki Shirai,&nbsp;Marijke Vancappellen,&nbsp;Matthias Van Ginneken,&nbsp;Sarah Wauthy,&nbsp;Akira Yamaguchi,&nbsp;Mehmet Yesiltas,&nbsp;Harry Zekollari","doi":"10.1029/2024GL113165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113165","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reconstructing the past Antarctic climate commonly involves deep drilling of ice cores. However, the ∼1% of the Antarctic ice sheet surface covered with blue ice also provides unique, yet largely unexploited paleoclimatic opportunities. Here, we analyze 444 ice samples collected in blue ice surfaces located around the Sør Rondane Mountains. Isotope measurements (δ¹⁸O) on these samples enable us to estimate surface paleotemperatures for both the current interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. Combining these paleotemperatures with the spatially varying source elevation of the sampled blue ice provides new insights on the (lack of) lapse rate evolution (i.e., changes in the elevation-temperature relationship) outside the 40°N–40°S latitudinal band. This result contrasts with low-latitude areas that have experienced elevation-dependent warming (EDW) during this period. Our results hint at a future (lack of) EDW in Antarctica, thereby highlighting the potential of blue ice area paleoclimatic archives to better predict future climatic changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL113165","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143938908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}