Geophysical Research Letters最新文献_第8页

Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原东北部人为温室气体排放主导的多年冻土退化及其水文变化

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113679

Pei Fang, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang, Jingjing Yang, Lihua Tang

{"title":"Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Pei Fang, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang, Jingjing Yang, Lihua Tang","doi":"10.1029/2024GL113679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113679","url":null,"abstract":"Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has profound impacts on hydrological processes, yet the responses of permafrost hydrology to different climate forcings remain unclear. Here we integrate outputs from global climate models with a watershed cryospheric-hydrological model to provide the first quantitative attribution analysis to examine the responses of permafrost hydrology to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the source region of the Yellow River, northeastern TP. Our results confidently attribute frozen ground degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), leading to permafrost area decline by 3,398.4 km2/10a during 1960–2019, while aerosols exhibit a slight mitigating effect. GHG emissions also drive concomitant hydrological changes, including increased subsurface runoff and winter runoff ratio. They also reduce streamflow seasonality, particularly in regions where permafrost degrades severely. Our study provides critical insights for understanding permafrost and hydrological processes under climate change, highlighting the importance of effective emission reduction and adaptive water resources management strategies.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL113679","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ab Initio Study of the Conductivities of B2 FeSi Under Core-Mantle Boundary Conditions 核幔边界条件下B2 FeSi电导率的从头算研究

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115024

Yonghui Huang, Yunguo Li, Dario Alfè, Monica Pozzo, Huaiwei Ni

引用次数: 0

Transient Antarctic Slope Current Response to Climate Change Including Meltwater 瞬态南极坡流对包括融水在内的气候变化的响应

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113983

Ellie Q. Y. Ong, Matthew H. England, Edward Doddridge, Navid C. Constantinou

{"title":"Transient Antarctic Slope Current Response to Climate Change Including Meltwater","authors":"Ellie Q. Y. Ong, Matthew H. England, Edward Doddridge, Navid C. Constantinou","doi":"10.1029/2024GL113983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113983","url":null,"abstract":"The future response of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) to projected transient changes in winds, radiative forcing, and meltwater input is examined in a high-resolution ocean-sea ice model. Meltwater changes are found to dominate the almost -circumpolar strengthening of the ASC. The strength of the ASC increases non-linearly despite the linear meltwater perturbation applied, with a <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>14% increase in strength from 2000 to 2025 contrasting a <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>49% increase from 2025 to 2050. This non-linear increase is, however, not seen in the coastal currents on the continental shelf. The non-linear growth of ASC strength is attributed to meltwater accumulating on the continental shelf and poleward shifting warm waters north of the ASC, both triggered by reduced dense shelf water formation, and causing an accelerating ASC through thermal wind balance. Despite the strengthening ASC, any vulnerabilities in the current system could bring poleward shifted warmer waters onto the shelf, with implications for Antarctic ice shelf melt.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL113983","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144100617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Framework for Minimizing Remote Effects of Regional Climate Interventions: Cooling the Great Barrier Reef Without Teleconnections 最小化区域气候干预的远程影响的框架：在没有远程连接的情况下冷却大堡礁

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113191

Will Krantz, J. David Neelin, Fiaz Ahmed

引用次数: 0

How Does a Stable AMOC Influence the Regional Climate of the North Atlantic? 稳定的AMOC如何影响北大西洋区域气候？

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115150

Lei Han

引用次数: 0

Recently Intensified Tropical-Extratropical Linkage Modulated by Arctic Sea Ice Loss 由北极海冰损失调制的近期增强的热带-温带联系

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114436

Xiang Zhang, Bingyi Wu

引用次数: 0

Constraining Kilometer-Scale Mountain Snow Transport and Snowshed Areas 限制公里尺度山地雪运输和雪区

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113599

E. N. Boardman

引用次数: 0

A Unique Mechanism of Ozone Surges Jointly Triggered by Deep Stratospheric Intrusions and the Tibetan Plateau Topographic Forcing 平流层深层侵入和青藏高原地形强迫共同触发臭氧暴增的独特机制

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114207

Yuqing Zhang, Tianliang Zhao, Guicai Ning, Xiangde Xu, Zhixiong Chen, Mengwei Jia, Xiaoyun Sun, Zhuozhi Shu, Zhen Lu, Jane Liu, Xiushu Qie

{"title":"A Unique Mechanism of Ozone Surges Jointly Triggered by Deep Stratospheric Intrusions and the Tibetan Plateau Topographic Forcing","authors":"Yuqing Zhang, Tianliang Zhao, Guicai Ning, Xiangde Xu, Zhixiong Chen, Mengwei Jia, Xiaoyun Sun, Zhuozhi Shu, Zhen Lu, Jane Liu, Xiushu Qie","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114207","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL114207","url":null,"abstract":"Given our poor understanding on mechanisms of stratospheric intrusions (SI) upon near-surface ozone (O3) surges, predicting the SI-induced O3 pollution pose inherent difficulties. Taking a wintertime O3 surge episode over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) as an example, we find SI contribute 47.8% to near-surface O3 levels and reveal the underlying mechanisms. Tropopause folding nearly extends to the deep atmospheric boundary layer over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) due to topographic forcing, driving stratospheric O3 penetration into the TP's near-surface. The intruded O3 is subsequently transported into the downstream SCB by strong downdrafts along the TP's leeward slope. Interestingly, the mountain-plains solenoid between the TP and the SCB strengthens the downward intrusions of O3 during both daytime and nighttime, further amplifying the contribution of SI to the SCB's near-surface O3 levels. This unique mechanism of O3 surges could provide new insights for the forecast of unexpected nocturnal high-O3 episodes.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114207","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144087943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

WoFSCast: A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Thunderstorms at Watch-to-Warning Scales WoFSCast：从观察到警告级别预测雷暴的机器学习模型

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112383

Montgomery L. Flora, Corey Potvin

{"title":"WoFSCast: A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Thunderstorms at Watch-to-Warning Scales","authors":"Montgomery L. Flora, Corey Potvin","doi":"10.1029/2024GL112383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112383","url":null,"abstract":"Developing AI models that match or exceed the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems but run much more quickly is a burgeoning area of research. Most AI-NWP models, however, have been trained on global ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 data, which does not resolve storm-scale evolution. We have therefore adapted Google's GraphCast framework for limited-area, storm-scale domains, then trained on archived forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), a convection-allowing ensemble with 5-min forecast output. We evaluate the WoFSCast predictions using object-based verification, grid-based verification, spatial storm structure assessments, and spectra analysis. The WoFSCast closely emulates the WoFS environment fields, matches 70%–80% of WoFS storms out to 2-hr forecast times, and suffers only modest blurring. When verified against observed storms, WoFSCast produces contingency table statistics and fractions skill scores similar to WoFS. WoFSCast demonstrates that AI-NWP can be extended to rapidly evolving, small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL112383","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trans-Seasonal Vegetation-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Explained Record-Breaking Cascading Extremes in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River 跨季节植被-陆地-大气相互作用解释了长江上游破纪录的级联极端现象

IF 4.6 1区地球科学

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114165

Ning An, Yang Chen, Zhen Liao, Jianying Li

{"title":"Trans-Seasonal Vegetation-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Explained Record-Breaking Cascading Extremes in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River","authors":"Ning An, Yang Chen, Zhen Liao, Jianying Li","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114165","url":null,"abstract":"The upper reaches of the Yangtze River observed record-breaking droughts, heatwaves, and forest fires in rapid sequence during the 2022 summer, challenging the established mechanistic understanding. We here explained the compound event through a trans-seasonal vegetation-land-atmosphere interacting perspective. The wetter spring-sunnier summer pattern resulted in record high loads of vegetation and enhanced transpiration. This led to progressive depletion of soil moisture to a critical threshold that shifted the originally weak response of air temperature into hypersensitive mode. The resulting rapid rise of air temperature amplified atmospheric evaporative demand to an unprecedentedly high level, which in turn exacerbated the drying-out of soil and vegetation. These favorable weather and fuel factors combined to cause unseasonal forest fires of unprecedented burning intensity. Our results remind of preparedness against drought-heat-fire compounding hazards even in humid regions under opportune configurations between ecological and meteorological conditions.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114165","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0