{"title":"Observed Ionospheric Tidal Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation","authors":"Deepali Aggarwal, Jens Oberheide, Komal Kumari","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115481","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL115481","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical troposphere and known to affect the tidal activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Using Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) Global Ionospheric Specification electron density data, we show that the MJO impact extends into the F-region ionosphere. The MJO imposes an average amplitude variability of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>15% in the non-migrating diurnal tide (DE3) and 2%–5% for the migrating diurnal tide (DW1), with significant responses observed in other diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components. Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry MLT temperature tides shows no time lag to COSMIC-2. E-region dynamo is thus the likely the main mechanism that couples the MJO into the ionosphere. Magnitude and ubiquity of the ionospheric MJO signal underlines the relevance of recurring tropospheric weather patterns for understanding the space weather of the ionosphere.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115481","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Coupled Geomechanical and Thermodynamic Controls on Global Distribution and Morphology of Gas Hydrate in Clay-Rich Marine Sediments","authors":"Wei Deng, Zenggui Kuang, Hugh Daigle, Wei Zhang, Xiujuan Wang, Pin Yan, Miaomiao Meng, Yingfeng Xie","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116985","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116985","url":null,"abstract":"<p>∼90% of gas hydrates occur as pore-filling or fracture-filling morphology in clay-rich marine sediments. Their dissociation releases gas with distinct environmental fates interacting with climate change. A well-constrained model of hydrate distribution with different morphologies is urgently needed. We present a novel one based on drilling data worldwide. We identified a geomechanics-controlled critical depth, typically several hundred meters below the seafloor, which limits the maximum occurrence depth of fracture-filling hydrates. This relative positioning of critical depth and bottom of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ) determines hydrate distribution with various morphologies: pore-filling hydrates develop and predominate below critical depth only when critical depth lies above BGHSZ, while only fracture-filling hydrates occur above BGHSZ when critical depth exceeds BGHSZ. Critical depth increases with higher clay-sized fractions or water depths, causing varying hydrate morphologies at specific depths along continental margins. This model is essential for evaluating hydrates' roles in global carbon cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116985","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nan He, Jiabo Yin, Pan Liu, Xiang Fu, Qian Zhang, Lei Cheng, Simon Moulds, Aliaksandr Volchak
{"title":"Global Increases in Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation Events Under Climate Change","authors":"Nan He, Jiabo Yin, Pan Liu, Xiang Fu, Qian Zhang, Lei Cheng, Simon Moulds, Aliaksandr Volchak","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117322","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117322","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapid transitions between dry and wet phases increasingly threaten global water resources and ecosystem sustainability. However, how the terrestrial water storage (TWS)–a key determinant of water and energy budgets–modulates these dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events remains poorly understood. Here, we leverage a recently reconstructed long-term TWS data set to evaluate global dynamics of DWAA events, and explore their teleconnection relationships with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that the frequency of DWAA events has increased more than three-fold during the past 4 decades (1979–2022), driven by heightened variability of atmospheric moisture transport and circulation dynamics. ENSO plays an essential role in modulating these transitions, with the La Niña phase in particular enhancing both the coverage and intensity of these events. These findings suggest an amplified risk of hydroclimatic extremes under climate warming, highlighting the urgent need to improve monitoring and prediction of these rapid transitions.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117322","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abhishek Savita, Joakim Kjellsson, Mojib Latif, Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Sebastian Wahl
{"title":"Causes of Eurasian Winter-Cooling During the Late 20th and Early 21st Century","authors":"Abhishek Savita, Joakim Kjellsson, Mojib Latif, Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Sebastian Wahl","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114140","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL114140","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Pronounced negative trends in wintertime near-surface temperature have been observed over Eurasia during 1993–2013. It is unclear whether the cooling was due to internal atmospheric variability or forced from either the ocean surface or changes in atmospheric composition. In this study, we use ensembles of atmosphere-model integrations for the period 1993–2013 to investigate the mechanisms of the wintertime cooling over Eurasia. We find that the cooling was primarily driven by intrinsic atmospheric variability, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation, and to a lesser extent by multidecadal ocean variability such as the Interdecadal Pacific Variability. There was not much influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Eurasian cooling. A dominant role for atmospheric variability as shown by our results implies limited predictability of decadal climate variability over Eurasia.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114140","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Richard Davy, Heather Regan, Anton Korosov, Jakob Dörr, Philipp Griewank, Einar Olason
{"title":"A Fair Assessment of Sea Ice Age Reduces Bias and Gives New Insight to Arctic Sea Ice Dynamics","authors":"Richard Davy, Heather Regan, Anton Korosov, Jakob Dörr, Philipp Griewank, Einar Olason","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117765","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117765","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The rapid Arctic warming in the early 2000s triggered a tremendous loss of multi-year sea ice. Since then, sea ice age has been largely overlooked, despite its value in evaluating climate model skill in capturing sea ice dynamics. Comparing modeled sea-ice age with observations is limited by differing methods for determining age, making fair comparison difficult. Here, we apply an ice-tracking algorithm to diagnose sea ice age from daily concentration and drift data in a climate model and compare it to satellite-derived estimates using the same method. We show that the derived sea ice age retains the spatial pattern and long-term trends of the reported model age, but with less than half the bias. Changes in sea-ice age highlight shifts in sea-ice dynamics more clearly than thickness or volume. This shows that using a common algorithm enables both a fair model validation and improves insight into sea-ice dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117765","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145133837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unveiling Northern Antarctica's Marine-Covered Continent-Ocean Boundary and Characteristics Using Density and Magnetization Vector Structures","authors":"N. Wang, G. Ma, L. Li, T. Wang, Q. Meng","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117507","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117507","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Antarctic continental margin, a critical transition zone between thin continental and incipient oceanic crust, preserves vital records of lithospheric extension and rupture, crucial for reconstructing Antarctica's ancient configuration. Extensive ice cover and extreme environments restrict the obtainable geological and ground-based data. Although airborne and satellite gravity-magnetic data are essential tools for Antarctic studies, their integration with sparse outcrops remains hindered for interpretational ambiguity. Magmatic rifting alters crustal density and magnetization while preserving remanent magnetism, facilitating continent-ocean boundary (COB) identification. We develop a high-precision and fast inversion method to obtain density and magnetization structures following subduction and fragmentation. Magma intrusions in the Antarctic Peninsula and Dronning Maud Land exhibit 20° and −120° magnetization directions, respectively, at 10–30 km depths, reveal differential tectonic patterns along the margin. The refined COB highlights how subduction and extension shape continental margins, offering new insights into geodynamics and plate evolution under global climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117507","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Benoît Pasquier, Richard J. Matear, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, David K. Hutchinson, François W. Primeau, Yi Liu, Ann Bardin
{"title":"The Sequestration Efficiency of the Deep Ocean","authors":"Benoît Pasquier, Richard J. Matear, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, David K. Hutchinson, François W. Primeau, Yi Liu, Ann Bardin","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116799","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL116799","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The abyssal ocean may provide adequate sequestration for Carbon Capture and Storage and Carbon Dioxide Removal. The transit of carbon from seafloor release to ocean surface can take millennia, as it occurs through many water pathways characterized by long-tailed transit-time distributions (TTDs). However, multi-millennial simulations of TTDs are typically prohibitively expensive. Here, we introduce an idealized but computationally efficient methodological framework for computing TTDs offline from climate-model archives. We applied this framework to one Earth System Model to estimate the deep ocean sequestration efficiency for the 2030s and 2090s ocean circulations. We found that sequestration is most efficient on abyssal plains isolated from deep branches of the conveyor belt, such as the North Pacific Basins, where less than 10% of the water reaches the surface after 1,000 years. The climate-warming-induced slowdown of the 2090s deep-ocean circulation extends return times by about 30%, which exceeds internal climate variability (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 <mn>20</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} 20$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>%).</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116799","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Kira Rehfeld, Nils Weitzel, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Xu Zhang, Paul J. Valdes, Francesco Muschitiello
{"title":"A Global Speleothem-Based Assessment of Spontaneous Dansgaard–Oeschger Type Oscillations in Two Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Models","authors":"John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Kira Rehfeld, Nils Weitzel, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Xu Zhang, Paul J. Valdes, Francesco Muschitiello","doi":"10.1029/2025GL114906","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL114906","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Several general circulation models have now demonstrated the ability to simulate spontaneous millennial-scale oscillations that resemble Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. It is often unclear how representative of DO events these simulations are, particularly outside of the polar regions. To test this, we directly compare simulated <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>δ</mi>\u0000 <mn>18</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 <mi>O</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${delta }^{18}O$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> changes from two isotope-enabled models to a compilation of 111 speleothem records from 67 caves across the low- and mid-latitudes. We find that both models successfully reproduce the observed pattern of changes in Europe and the Mediterranean, Asia, and Central America. However, they perform less well for Western North America, South America, and Oceania, and the simulated changes are also generally too small in their magnitude. Where the models do reproduce the observed changes, we find evidence that the isotopic variability is influenced by both local and remote drivers, but the remote drivers appear more important.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114906","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nils Dörr, Long Vu Huu, Andreas Schenk, Stefan Hinz
{"title":"Drought-Induced Land Subsidence in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Insights From SAR Interferometry","authors":"Nils Dörr, Long Vu Huu, Andreas Schenk, Stefan Hinz","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117096","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117096","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Mekong Delta has been affected by land subsidence for decades, increasing its vulnerability to coastal erosion and floodings. Here we show, based on subsidence time series from SAR Interferometry, that severe droughts can significantly intensify the subsidence. We measured a subsidence of up to 7 cm in few months during a drought in 2020, which was compensated by uplift in the following rainy season in some but not all regions. The magnitude of the drought-induced subsidence was spatially correlated with specific surface water management and land use zones, with the largest impact in rain-fed, rice growing regions. We argue that the uncompensated surface drop in two regions, reaching up to 3.5 cm, was caused by inelastic deformation. Such irreversible subsidence has a major impact on the delta's future elevation, especially under the assumption that the frequency of droughts will increase under climate change and an increasing water demand.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117096","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhanced Bimodal Seasonal Distribution of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Indian Ocean Toward Glacial Inception","authors":"Qing Yan, Nanxuan Jiang, Robert Korty, Dubin Huan","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117248","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GL117248","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The annual cycle of contemporary tropical cyclones (TCs) in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) shows a unique bimodal structure, but whether the bimodal seasonal character remains robust across different climates is unknown. Here, we investigate changes in environmental factors important to storm formation in the past warm-cold transition during 130–115 ka, in which climatic characteristics were comparable to future projections, though with an opposite sign. Based on a non-accelerated transient global climate simulation at ∼1° resolution, we illustrate that the annual cycle of environmental conditions supporting TC genesis over the NIO bifurcates into two discrete periods during the warm-cold transition, manifested by a shift from a unimodal to bimodal seasonal distribution. The shift is largely linked to the increased favorability for TC genesis in pre-monsoon season (April–May–June) toward the last glacial inception (∼115 ka), which is in turn tied to the orbitally-induced weakening of Indian monsoon-like circulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117248","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145117197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}