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Seismic Structure of the Mid to Upper Crust at the Santorini-Kolumbo Magma System From Joint Earthquake and Active Source Vp-Vs Tomography
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学
Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024GC012022
R. S. Hufstetler, E. E. E. Hooft, D. R. Toomey, B. P. VanderBeek, C. B. Papazachos, N. Chatzis
{"title":"Seismic Structure of the Mid to Upper Crust at the Santorini-Kolumbo Magma System From Joint Earthquake and Active Source Vp-Vs Tomography","authors":"R. S. Hufstetler,&nbsp;E. E. E. Hooft,&nbsp;D. R. Toomey,&nbsp;B. P. VanderBeek,&nbsp;C. B. Papazachos,&nbsp;N. Chatzis","doi":"10.1029/2024GC012022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GC012022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Santorini volcano has a history of caldera-forming eruptions, most recently in the Late Bronze Age, at 3.4 kya, and remains volcanically active. The Kolumbo submarine volcano, located 7 km to the northeast of Santorini, erupted in 1650 AD in a deadly phreatomagmatic eruption. Ongoing seismic activity and active hydrothermal venting at Kolumbo indicate this volcano is a significant hazard to the Santorini region. The magma source for Santorini and the Kolumbo edifice are considered separate in the shallow crust, though their deeper magma distribution is not yet constrained. In this study, we improve constraints on the mid-crustal magma system of Santorini caldera and the nearby Kolumbo volcano using local earthquake tomography. We use 1515 P-wave and 1435 S-wave arrival times from 63 local earthquakes with magnitudes from 0.5 to 3.0 that occurred between 5 and 15 km depth together with an existing data set of active source Pg arrivals. The upper crustal magma system beneath Santorini is imaged to at least 6 km depth, and to 12 km depth beneath Kolumbo. We recover a high P-wave velocity layer (∼6–8 km) under the Kolumbo magma reservoir that we infer is a rheologically strong seismogenic layer. We also recover a mid-crustal magma body below 8 km depth located to the NE of Santorini and Kolumbo.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"26 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GC012022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Summer 2024 in northern Fennoscandia was very likely the warmest in 2000 years
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01046-4
Mika Rantanen, Samuli Helama, Jouni Räisänen, Hilppa Gregow
{"title":"Summer 2024 in northern Fennoscandia was very likely the warmest in 2000 years","authors":"Mika Rantanen, Samuli Helama, Jouni Räisänen, Hilppa Gregow","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01046-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01046-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Summer 2024 was exceptionally warm in northern Fennoscandia, with June-August mean temperatures at several long-term weather stations surpassing the long-standing record set in 1937. In this region, summer mean temperatures have been reconstructed from tree-ring proxies, which provide annually resolved and millennium-long records of past climate. Here we show, using in-situ observations and two different tree-ring reconstructions, that summer 2024 was the warmest summer in 2000 years in northern Fennoscandia. Employing an attribution method based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, we further estimate that climate change increased the likelihood of this extreme season by a factor of 93 (5–95% uncertainty range 19–881) and increased the temperature an additional 2.1 °C (1.4–2.8 °C). Atmospheric circulation patterns influencing both summers 1937 and 2024 were largely similar, suggesting a comparable large-scale circulation influence. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change for the contemporary heat extremes in Fennoscandia, indicating that the warming of summer climate is emerging from its range of natural climate variability over the last two millennia.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating GNSS/IMU and DEM data for precise aerial triangulation: Insights from airborne hybrid systems in upper Egypt
IF 3.7 3区 地球科学
Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrs.2025.04.004
Abdelrahman Ali Wahba , Ibrahim Fouad Ahmed , Mohamed Amin Abdelfatah , Ashraf Mohammed Ahmed Sahrawi , Gamal Saber El-Fiky
{"title":"Integrating GNSS/IMU and DEM data for precise aerial triangulation: Insights from airborne hybrid systems in upper Egypt","authors":"Abdelrahman Ali Wahba ,&nbsp;Ibrahim Fouad Ahmed ,&nbsp;Mohamed Amin Abdelfatah ,&nbsp;Ashraf Mohammed Ahmed Sahrawi ,&nbsp;Gamal Saber El-Fiky","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrs.2025.04.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrs.2025.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital photogrammetry primarily aims to extract three-dimensional coordinates (X, Y, Z or E, N, H) of feature points, which is crucial for mapping applications. The Aerial Triangulation (AT) process for aerial images must be adjusted with high precision to achieve accurate measurements. Enhancing the accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensors significantly improves the AT process. Additionally, Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data can produce a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which aids in initializing the aerial triangulation process. Modern services, such as Real-Time eXtended (RTX), are also used for GNSS/IMU corrections, further refining their accuracy.</div><div>The novelty of the current research is based on an end-to-end procedure for enhancing AT accuracy, especially in variable terrain height regions, using a hybrid airborne system. The scope is to use GNSS/IMU data coupled with a DEM from airborne LiDAR to initialize the AT process. The study cases were based in Maghagha City, Minia Governorate, Egypt, where a flight mission was carried out in 2017 using the Trimble AX60 system. This system integrates a photogrammetric camera and laser scanner with GNSS/IMU sensors. The aerial triangulation of the images was processed using MATCH-AT software. The accuracy of the results was evaluated using checkpoints. The findings indicate that AT using GNSS/IMU corrected data yields the best accuracy in AT, particularly in the Z direction, with an accuracy enhancement in check points residuals, compared with AT without using GNSS/IMU. Consequently, the final Root Mean Square (RMS) improved from 0.25 m to 0.17 m in E, from 0.2 m to 0.17 m in N, and from 3 m to 0.5 m in H. That demonstrates the significant benefit of incorporating GNSS/IMU data in improving the precision of three-dimensional spatial measurements. In addition, the DEM initialization improved the RMS slightly, also, the matching between aerial images during the triangulation process gets better values along the iteration time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48539,"journal":{"name":"Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences","volume":"28 2","pages":"Pages 240-251"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal Delay of Tropical Rainfall Enhanced by the Interhemispheric Contrast of SST Warming
IF 4.6 1区 地球科学
Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115403
Yu-Fan Geng, Fengfei Song, Songxin Lv, Zi-Wen Han, Lu Dong, Lixin Wu
{"title":"Seasonal Delay of Tropical Rainfall Enhanced by the Interhemispheric Contrast of SST Warming","authors":"Yu-Fan Geng,&nbsp;Fengfei Song,&nbsp;Songxin Lv,&nbsp;Zi-Wen Han,&nbsp;Lu Dong,&nbsp;Lixin Wu","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115403","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The seasonal delay of tropical rainfall is a robust feature under global warming. This study finds that the seasonal delay of tropical rainfall is much more pronounced under spatially patterned sea surface temperature (SST) warming compared to uniform SST warming. Through the lens of the atmospheric energetic framework, we show that the enhanced seasonal delay is primarily driven by the interhemispheric contrast in SST warming between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, which intensifies the inter-seasonal difference in cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport between transition seasons. The SST warming features are found to be crucial, characterized by both its seasonal cycle and annual mean. The former is closely related to the seasonal delay of SST, especially in the northern high latitude, while the latter is further demonstrated by an atmospheric model forced with the annual-mean spatially patterned SST warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115403","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction to “A 7‐yr spatial time series resolves the island mass effect and associated shifts in picocyanobacteria abundances near O'ahu, Hawai'i”
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
Limnology and Oceanography Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1002/lno.12737
{"title":"Correction to “A 7‐yr spatial time series resolves the island mass effect and associated shifts in picocyanobacteria abundances near O'ahu, Hawai'i”","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/lno.12737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.12737","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18143,"journal":{"name":"Limnology and Oceanography","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143876146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mechanisms of Persistent Extreme Rainfall Event in North China, July 2023: Role of Atmospheric Diabatic Heating
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042717
Wei Zhao, Shangfeng Chen, Xiadong An, Renguang Wu, Wen Chen, Fanghua Zhang, Yuli Zhang, Lu Yang, Linye Song, Leying Wang
{"title":"Mechanisms of Persistent Extreme Rainfall Event in North China, July 2023: Role of Atmospheric Diabatic Heating","authors":"Wei Zhao,&nbsp;Shangfeng Chen,&nbsp;Xiadong An,&nbsp;Renguang Wu,&nbsp;Wen Chen,&nbsp;Fanghua Zhang,&nbsp;Yuli Zhang,&nbsp;Lu Yang,&nbsp;Linye Song,&nbsp;Leying Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042717","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During 29th July–1st August in 2023, a persistent heavy rainfall event (“23·7” event) hit North China causing severe floods, enormous infrastructure damage, and large economy loss. Observational analysis shows that the extremely large accumulation of precipitation and long duration of this event are closely related to a slowly moving landfall typhoon “Dusuari” over North China due to the blocking effect of an anomalous high over the mid-high latitude Asia. The anomalous southeasterly flow induced by the typhoon “Dusuari” and another typhoon “Khanun” over the East China Sea jointly built a highly efficient channel of water vapor supply from southern oceans toward North China. A water vapor budget analysis indicates that precipitation of this event is mainly caused by the dynamic process involving strong ascending motion. Accompanying strong water vapor transportation and convergence over North China, large amount of latent heat is released in the middle and the lower troposphere. The physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall-induced diabatic heating in maintaining the precipitation over North China is further investigated using statistical analysis and numerical experiments. On one hand, the latent heating released by heavy rainfall induces significant uplifting flows which causes more precipitation. On the other hand, the heavy rainfall-induced diabatic heating contributes to the enhancement of the westward extension of high-pressure dam over mid-high latitude through a regional meridional circulation. This strengthened high-pressure dam sustained the cyclonic circulation of “Dusuari” over North China, leading to continuous heavy rainfall there.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Summer Mesoscale Convective Systems in Convection-Permitting Simulation Using WRF Over East China
IF 3.8 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043653
Yutong Lu, J. H. Marsham, Jianping Tang, D. J. Parker, Juan Fang
{"title":"Summer Mesoscale Convective Systems in Convection-Permitting Simulation Using WRF Over East China","authors":"Yutong Lu,&nbsp;J. H. Marsham,&nbsp;Jianping Tang,&nbsp;D. J. Parker,&nbsp;Juan Fang","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043653","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are active precipitation systems in East China. The increasing frequency and intensity of MCSs highlight the need for better simulation and forecasting. This study conducted a 22-year (2000–2021) JJA simulation at a CP resolution (4-km grid spacing) using the WRF model (WRF-CPM) over East China. The WRF-CPM model's ability to reproduce MCSs was evaluated against satellite infrared-retrieved cloud top temperature, IMERG V06 precipitation, and global reanalysis data ERA5. Results show that WRF-CPM captures the observed MCS frequency and precipitation patterns but overestimates them in most areas, which might be related to the overestimated moisture and CAPE. The model also reproduces the eastward propagation of MCSs, albeit at a slightly faster speed and longer duration. MCSs in WRF-CPM exhibits realistic life cycles in terms of cloud top temperature, convective core area, and precipitation. WRF-CPM tends to overestimate rainfall frequency over 20 mm/hr while underestimates rainfall per MCS, possibly due to an overestimated number and area. The model captures the diurnal cycle of MCSs well in most of East China, though it shows a 2-hr delay in southeast China and produces the peak a few hours earlier to the east of Tibetan Plateau. Total column water vapor (TCWV) and wind shear are well-established factors controlling MCS behavior and rainfall, yet capturing the effects remains a challenge for CP models. This study is the first to show that WRF-CPM can capture the shear effect on MCS precipitation, showing an increase in precipitation with stronger shear and higher TCWV.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evidence for large-scale rice utilization in the Guanzhong region during the final Neolithic (ca. 4600-4000 B.P.): A case study of the Yangyuan site, Xi'an
IF 2.6 1区 地球科学
Journal of Archaeological Science Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jas.2025.106238
Qianyi Lin , Liya Tang , Ruichen Yang , Yanpeng Wang , Bo Gao , Xiangyu Zhang , Zhijun Zhao
{"title":"Evidence for large-scale rice utilization in the Guanzhong region during the final Neolithic (ca. 4600-4000 B.P.): A case study of the Yangyuan site, Xi'an","authors":"Qianyi Lin ,&nbsp;Liya Tang ,&nbsp;Ruichen Yang ,&nbsp;Yanpeng Wang ,&nbsp;Bo Gao ,&nbsp;Xiangyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhijun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rice, domesticated in the Yangtze River Basin, was introduced to the Guanzhong Plain, and became prominence alongside millets during the Longshan period (ca. 4600-4000 B.P.). This study analyzes flotation samples from the Yangyuan site, revealing a significant abundance of charred rice grains and spikelet bases, surpassing those found at other contemporaneous sites in the Guanzhong Plain. The high concentration suggests substantial rice utilization by the site's ancient inhabitants. The Yangshao period, was marked by rice use influenced by external factors, whereas during the Longshan period, local inhabitants in the Guanzhong region gradually adopted the uses of rice as a self-sustaining practice, with possible regional transport of rice. These findings offer valuable insights into the agricultural practices and dietary preferences of the Neolithic Guanzhong Plain, highlighting the region's evolving civilization and its mixed agriculture of rice and millets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Archaeological Science","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 106238"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Multiple Groundwater Management Targets by Applying Frequency, Duration, and Magnitude Metrics to Water Table Depth Targets
IF 5.4 1区 地球科学
Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1029/2023wr036730
Mingjun Wang, Bo Xu, Chi Zhang, Yong Peng, Yu Li, Bing Yu, Xinqiang Du
{"title":"Evaluation of Multiple Groundwater Management Targets by Applying Frequency, Duration, and Magnitude Metrics to Water Table Depth Targets","authors":"Mingjun Wang, Bo Xu, Chi Zhang, Yong Peng, Yu Li, Bing Yu, Xinqiang Du","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036730","url":null,"abstract":"Groundwater resource management faces significant challenges due to groundwater overdraft and waterlogging. Establishing thresholds of the water table depth (WTD) is crucial to ascertain whether WTDs align with ranges conducive to the health of social-ecological systems. However, existing studies often overlook multiple protection targets, dominant targets across different seasons, and spatial variations of thresholds. The long-term effects of WTDs exceeding threshold ranges of the WTD also need to be further explored. Here we propose a novel framework for calculating grid-scale thresholds across seasons, incorporating multiple targets. This framework calculates frequency, duration, and magnitude metrics, offering an evaluation of multiple groundwater management targets over decades. We apply this framework to the lower Tao'er River Basin in China, revealing threshold depths for shallow water tables ranges of 1.16–2.05 m and 1.16–4.05 m during non-growth and growth periods, while threshold depths for deep water tables ranges from 6.28–33.54 m and 1.96–30.72 m, respectively. Climate change scenarios demonstrate minimal frequency changes but significant deterioration in duration and magnitude compared to the historical scenario. Grids with duration of transgressions more than 12 months expand by 1–2 times, while grids exceeding thresholds of the WTD by 2 m increase by 37%–81% under climate change and intensified pumping scenarios. A 20% increase in groundwater pumping leads to an average rise of 151%, 224%, and 147% deterioration in frequency, duration, and magnitude. Furthermore, 1%–6% of grids face dual challenges of groundwater storage reduction and waterlogging. These findings can inform groundwater resource management under various potential futures.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143878052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling Extreme Meteorological Droughts From Paleo-Climatic Reconstructions: A Metastatistical Framework
IF 5.4 1区 地球科学
Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr038640
Maria Francesca Caruso, David Johnny Peres, Antonino Cancelliere, Marco Marani
{"title":"Modeling Extreme Meteorological Droughts From Paleo-Climatic Reconstructions: A Metastatistical Framework","authors":"Maria Francesca Caruso, David Johnny Peres, Antonino Cancelliere, Marco Marani","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038640","url":null,"abstract":"Droughts have pervasive societal impacts and remain difficult to characterize observationally, due to the limited number of droughts sampled in instrumental records. One approach to improving the statistical basis of drought occurrence probability estimation is to extend the observational record using proxy climatic archives, such as those based on tree-ring information. Additionally, since droughts are rare and characterized by multiannual durations and inter-arrival times, it is important to devise and apply statistical techniques that make full use of available information to improve our ability to quantify the rarest droughts. We extract data from a publicly available tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data set, the Old World Drought Atlas, for two sites in Italy where long rainfall and temperature observational time series are leveraged for a meaningful comparison. Drought events are defined in terms of drought deficit volumes below a threshold PDSI value, and are studied through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) to quantify the occurrence probability of extreme drought events. The estimation uncertainty associated with a variety of possible assumptions in MEVD analysis is studied, in specific comparison with the performance obtained using the traditional Generalized Extreme Value distribution, through a cross-validation methodology. Results suggest that MEVD-based formulations are more robust and flexible with respect to traditional ones. The combination of paleoclimatic data and methodologies capable of using most of the existing information provides more reliable estimates of drought recurrence times, which may be used to design more effective drought risk management plans.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143878053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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