地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Seismicity to the South of the Louisville Ridge-Tonga Trench Collision Zone: New Insight Into Processes Controlling Seismic Gaps and Subduction Erosion","authors":"Yingchen Liu,&nbsp;Dietrich Lange,&nbsp;Ingo Grevemeyer","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030845","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Louisville seismic gap associated with the subduction of the Louisville Ridge (LR) along the Tonga-Kermadec trench is a globally prominent feature. Due to the lack of near-field seismic monitoring, the earthquake potential and seismic behavior in this region have long been an enigma. In this study, we investigate the local earthquake activity of the Louisville seismic gap and subduction erosion using a local network of ocean-bottom seismometers. Over 6 months of offshore network deployment, our local catalog supports the existence of the Louisville seismic gap at magnitudes ranging from <i>M</i>_w ∼2.5 to 5.5 and reveals that the southern boundary of the seismic gap aligns well with the flexural moat of the LR. To the south of the seismic gap, seismicity distribution over the forearc shows a patchy characteristic dominated by three earthquake clusters that correspond well with morphological forearc depressions, and a deforming upper plate middle prism is revealed by upward migrated aftershock sequences, suggesting ongoing basal erosion. Seismicity reveals deformation of the outer rise along trench-parallel normal faults with focal depths ranging from 5 to 25 km, indicating a highly faulted and hydrated downgoing plate, which agrees with down-dip extensive intermediate-depth earthquakes.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JB030845","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combination of Internal Variability and Forced Response Reconciles Observed 2023–2024 Warming","authors":"G. Gyuleva,&nbsp;R. Knutti,&nbsp;S. Sippel","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115270","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The record-breaking global mean surface temperature (GMST) in 2023 and 2024 came as a surprise to the scientific community, raising the question whether it provides evidence for a recent abrupt increase in the forced global warming rate. Here, we provide a new statistical learning-based method to quantify the forced and internal variability contributions to annual GMST based on CMIP6-simulated surface temperatures, producing a variability-adjusted GMST time series. We find a variability contribution to 2023 GMST of 0.1 K, with strong contributions from the El Niño Southern Oscillation region and North Atlantic. More than half of the 2022–2023 jump in temperature is explained by variability, largely owing to anomalously cool conditions in 2022. We find insufficient evidence of an abrupt increase in forced warming rate in recent years. Our results highlight the importance of variability originating outside the tropical Pacific and the need to filter out unforced variability when assessing changes in long-term warming rates.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115270","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physical Properties Controlling Earthquake Ruptures: Two Study Cases Along the South American Subduction Zone","authors":"Sergio Leon-Rios,&nbsp;Andreas Rietbrock,&nbsp;Lidong Bie,&nbsp;Susan Beck,&nbsp;Philippe Charvis,&nbsp;Diana Comte,&nbsp;Audrey Galve,&nbsp;Anne Meltzer,&nbsp;Steven Roecker,&nbsp;Mario Ruiz,&nbsp;Monica Segovia","doi":"10.1029/2025GL114615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114615","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Seismic velocity models were compared with coseismic slip distributions for two megathrust earthquakes that occurred along the South American subduction zone. By analyzing the distribution of Vp/Vs ratios, we found that seismic anomalies with values higher or lower than the average coincide with the boundaries of the earthquake ruptures. In contrast, the regions characterized by intermediate Vp/Vs values may represent a mechanical “sweet spot” where the physical properties create favorable conditions for sustained rupture propagation. Our methodology, which combines the Vp/Vs distribution and the analysis of coseismic slip models, could reveal the rupture-prone regions and the likely magnitude of potential earthquakes, providing relevant information for seismic hazard assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114615","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban Hydrological Connectivity and Response Patterns Across Timescales: An Integrated Time-Frequency Domain Analysis","authors":"Gregorio A. López Moreira Mazacotte,&nbsp;Dörthe Tetzlaff,&nbsp;Chris Soulsby","doi":"10.1002/hyp.70190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the interconnections between rainfall, groundwater and stream flow in urban and peri-urban catchments, along with the factors affecting response times between causally related hydrological variables, is essential for predicting and managing future urban water resources. In this study, we applied autocorrelation, cross-correlation and time-frequency analyses over 20 years of daily hydrometeorological data to extract relevant indicators of hydrological connectivity in the Wuhle catchment, one of the main urban streams in Berlin, the capital of Germany. Despite the strong influence of urban storm drainage, our analysis showed a high degree of persistence of the groundwater signals, reflecting the important role of storage in regulating fluxes from the regional aquifer. For wet years, spectral analysis of the precipitation and discharge signals highlighted regions of high common power and coherence between precipitation and discharge at the seasonal scales (6–12 months). These were attenuated during periods of consecutive wet years when the influence of individual rainfall events was less dominant. For dry years, including through the persistent 2018–2020 west-central European drought, the analysis revealed a high degree of statistically significant coherence between groundwater levels and discharge at scales of 1 year and longer. Phase angles were used to estimate response times between the signals. A virtually instant response between groundwater and streamflow throughout the analysed period confirmed the importance of groundwater in sustaining streamflow, and the severe consequences of multi-year droughts that can deplete groundwater storage and, in extreme cases, lead to a cessation of stream flow. The study thus demonstrates the benefits of integrated time series analysis in understanding the important role of groundwater at time scales of ~3–6 years, green spaces and non-urban areas in the integrated management of complex urbanised catchments, even when dominated by urban storm runoff from impervious areas at sub-daily time scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":13189,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Processes","volume":"39 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/hyp.70190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From green to white: The technological origins of early white porcelain in Northern China","authors":"Yujie Wu ,&nbsp;Jianfeng Cui ,&nbsp;Binghua Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The appearance of white porcelain in Northern China during the Sui and Tang dynasties marks an important technological shift in the history of Chinese ceramics. How and why this development occurred from the established southern celadon tradition has been a long-standing question for researchers. In this study, samples of celadon, coarse white porcelain, and fine white porcelain excavated from a newly discovered Sui-Tang dynasty kiln site at Jinyang Ancient City, Shanxi, were analyzed for their composition. The results show that a local clay rich in calcium and magnesium was used for the ceramic body. A high-calcium lime glaze was commonly applied, and two distinct glaze formulations were identified based on the ware type. The glaze technology followed two distinct pathways: a common base of body material and plant ash was supplemented with either a silica- and iron-rich material to achieve the celadon glaze, or with a feldspathic mineral to develop the white porcelain glaze. These different technical choices indicate a progression from imitation to innovation. Celadon production followed southern techniques, but the low iron content of local clays required the addition of an iron-rich material to the glaze. This limitation, in turn, revealed the natural advantages of the local materials for making white porcelain, prompting a move from costly imitation toward more resource-efficient innovation. This change also drove improvements in paste refinement, glaze formulation, and the use of sealed saggers for firing. The case of Jinyang reveals a key process behind the origin of northern white porcelain: local, independent innovation was driven by a combination of resource constraints and the imitation of existing technologies. This work provides new physical evidence for understanding the technological origins and regional variations of white porcelain in Northern China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Archaeological Science","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 106334"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144702818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of Ocean Heat Transport in Tropical Radiative Convective Equilibrium","authors":"B. D. Dygert,&nbsp;Dennis L. Hartmann","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043194","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A global climate model is run in radiative-convective equilibrium including a slab ocean with a specified ocean heat transport analogous to what is seen in the tropical Pacific. The insolation is varied to create a range of global mean equilibrium temperatures. These results are compared with experiments that do not include a specified ocean heat transport. The ocean heat transport cools the coldest Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and increases the SST contrast. The warmest SSTs change much less with the addition of ocean heat transport because increased atmospheric transport moves energy away from the warm region. The ocean heat transport also increases the efficiency of cooling by outgoing longwave radiation in the subsiding region, allowing for a cooler global mean SST. At colder global mean temperatures ocean heat transport creates a high-contrast state in which abundant low clouds play a strong role in maintaining the SST contrast. This high-contrast state abruptly transitions to a warmer, low-SST-contrast state as the climate is warmed by increasing insolation. At warmer temperatures comparable to the current tropics, the low cloud response is less important than longwave emission in maintaining the SST contrast. Although ocean heat transport cools the climate, it does not much affect the sensitivity of the model climate to increasing insolation. Comparison of the model results to ERA5 reanalysis data shows that mechanisms responsible for the SST distribution and energy budget changes in this idealized model are analogous to variability that occurs over the tropical Pacific Ocean.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill","authors":"E. D. Meeker,&nbsp;E. A. Maroon,&nbsp;A. L. Deppenmeier,&nbsp;L. A. Thompson,&nbsp;D. J. Vimont,&nbsp;S. G. Yeager","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116122","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate coupled climate model initialized predictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) prediction skill in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multi Year Large Ensemble (SMYLE). The PDO is predictable up to a year in advance in SMYLE; however, the predictability depends on verification month, with skill degrading most rapidly in boreal spring for all initializations. To examine the role of teleconnections from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the prediction skill of the PDO, we use a multi-linear regression model. The linear model shows that initial value persistence explains most of the PDO prediction skill in SMYLE. In addition, the PDO prediction skill's seasonal dependence is fully reproduced only when ENSO is included as a predictor. These results suggest that ENSO has a strong influence on the seasonality of PDO predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116122","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New pressure-temperature-time constraints on initial India-Asia collision from eastern Himalayan syntaxis eclogite-facies metamorphic rocks","authors":"WangChao Li ,&nbsp;Qiang Wang ,&nbsp;Richard M. Palin ,&nbsp;Long Zhang ,&nbsp;XiuZheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Weiwei Xue ,&nbsp;Tongyu Huang ,&nbsp;Erkun Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Eclogite-facies rocks exposed within the Himalayan Range can be used to constrain the timing and characteristics of the India–Asia collision, which remain strongly debated. Many collision-related high- and ultrahigh-pressure lithologies are exposed around the western Himalaya; however, the rarity of similar units in the eastern Himalaya limits our understanding of the along-strike geodynamic evolution of India–Asia collision and the characteristics of the subducted India plate. Here, we document collision-related, low-temperature eclogite-facies metapelites from the easternmost Indus-Yarlung suture zone, which retain vital records of the timing of the initial India–Asia collision in this region. Petrology and phase diagram modeling indicate that the metapelite experienced cold subduction along a low thermal gradient (∼12 °C/km), reaching peak low-temperature eclogite-facies conditions (ca. 1.5 GPa and 590 °C), and was retrogressed to amphibolite-facies conditions during exhumation. Zircon and monazite U–Th–Pb chronology reveals new eclogite-facies ages of ca. 47 Ma, constraining collision of the Indian and Asian continents in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis at ca. 50 Ma, which is consistent with the timing in the western Himalaya and east-central Himalaya. This demonstrates that the initial India–Asia collision occurred quasi-synchronously along orogenic strike, although the maximum depth of subduction of continental material differed. Moreover, the subduction dynamics of continental crust within the collisional orogen exhibit pronounced lateral heterogeneity. These findings further demonstrate a significant change in slab dip angle, convergence velocity, and/or lithospheric strength along strike during closure of the Neo-Tethys Ocean, which must be considered in future geodynamic simulations of the evolution of the orogen.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11481,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Planetary Science Letters","volume":"668 ","pages":"Article 119547"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Hidden Predictor of Multi-Year ENSO Predictions Revealed by Deep Learning","authors":"Yipeng Chen,&nbsp;Xianyao Chen,&nbsp;Yishuai Jin,&nbsp;Yingying Zhao,&nbsp;Junyu Dong,&nbsp;Yanhai Gan,&nbsp;Hanwen Bi","doi":"10.1029/2025JC022394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022394","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Data-driven deep learning models (DLMs) can predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) up to a year in advance, a capability that traditional physical and statistical models struggle to achieve due to the Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB). However, the specific knowledge that DLMs learn to cross the SPB in ENSO predictions remains unclear. In this study, we propose a non-parametric AI interpretability approach based on the extent to which useful predictable information can be include in data. By strategically reducing the training data sets to the key state required to maintain prediction skill, we uncover the critical knowledge learned by the DLMs and identify the tropical Pacific Ocean mode (TPOM) of Empirical Orthogonal Functions related to subsurface ocean temperature. The coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics induced by TPOM are beneficial for enhancing ENSO prediction skill beyond 1 year. We integrate physical analysis with the flexibility of deep learning to reveal hidden dynamics, improve ENSO predictions, and demonstrate broad applicability in both climate science and AI interpretability.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144705137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mars' Hourglass Landforms as Local Source-to-Sink Fluvial Systems","authors":"A. S. Zaki,&nbsp;D. Wang,&nbsp;S. R. Baker,&nbsp;J. P. Grotzinger,&nbsp;J. Dickson,&nbsp;M. P. Lamb","doi":"10.1029/2024JE008745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JE008745","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mars' landscapes offer enigmatic clues about a once wetter climate. Particularly puzzling are hourglass landforms, distinguished by two small (10–100 s km²) branching ridge systems connected by a narrow neck. This geometry resembles a source-to-sink fluvial system, but occurs on relatively flat terrain without a clear drainage direction. Here, we characterize 13 hourglass landforms and branched ridge networks that occur near the crustal dichotomy boundary and compare them with flume experiments and terrestrial analogs. We find that hourglass landforms are composed of branching and sinuous fluvial ridges, indicating that they are ancient river deposits exposed in positive relief due to substantial differential erosion. Typically, one side of the hourglass is composed of a ridge network with larger and more distinct ridges (type 1), whereas the other network has smaller cross-cutting ridges (type 2). In some cases, a remnant crater rim divides the two sides, with the type 1 network eroded into the crater wall, indicating a drainage network, and the type 2 network bounded by the crater, indicating an alluvial fan. Results indicate hourglass landforms are eroded remnants of small catchment-fan drainage systems that have experienced major climate change. They formed following impact cratering in a wet climate by runoff or seepage erosion where the crater breached the groundwater table. Subsequent wind erosion in a dry climate created ridge networks and completely removed the antecedent catchment-fan topography. Our findings on the distinction between different types of hourglass networks may help differentiate distributary from tributary networks in fluvial ridge systems elsewhere on Mars.</p>","PeriodicalId":16101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JE008745","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144695838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}