Climate Dynamics最新文献

Effects of macro vs. micro initialization and ocean initial-condition memory on the evolution of ensemble spread in the CESM2 large ensemble.

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-24 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07553-z

Clara Deser, Who M Kim, Robert C J Wills, Isla R Simpson, Steve Yeager, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Keith Rodgers, Nan Rosenbloom

{"title":"Effects of macro vs. micro initialization and ocean initial-condition memory on the evolution of ensemble spread in the CESM2 large ensemble.","authors":"Clara Deser, Who M Kim, Robert C J Wills, Isla R Simpson, Steve Yeager, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Keith Rodgers, Nan Rosenbloom","doi":"10.1007/s00382-024-07553-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00382-024-07553-z","url":null,"abstract":"\"Single Model initial-condition Large Ensembles\" (SMILEs) conducted with Earth system models have transformed our ability to quantify internal climate variability and forced climate change at local and regional scales. An important consideration in their experimental design is the choice of initialization procedure as this influences the duration of initial-condition memory, with implications for interpreting the temporal evolution of both the ensemble-mean and ensemble-spread. Here we leverage the strategic design of the 100-member Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) SMILE to investigate the dependence of ensemble spread on the method of initialization (micro- vs. macro- perturbations) and the effects of ocean initial-condition memory. We find that the evolution of ensemble spread in 10-year low-pass filtered data is relatively insensitive to the method of initialization beyond the second decade, with the notable exception of the tropical Indo-Pacific in the 4th decade, when macro-initialization significantly enhances ensemble spread, possibly as a result of a state-dependent response to major volcanic activity. Initial-condition memory associated with the chosen Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) states unfolds in two stages: First, in the North Atlantic lasting 4-5 decades, and subsequently, in the Indo-Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean appearing 35-years after initialization and lasting 3-4 decades. Known AMOC dynamics explain the first stage, but the role of AMOC and the mechanisms responsible for the delayed appearance of initial-condition memory in the Southern Ocean remain to be fully elucidated. Implications and recommendations for the design of future SMILEs are provided.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-024-07553-z.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"63 1","pages":"62"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11668834/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142892075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multiple linear regression model for the prediction of summer rainfall in the northwestern Peruvian Amazon using large-scale indices 利用大尺度指数预测秘鲁亚马逊西北部夏季降雨量的多元线性回归模型

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07044-7

Juan C. Sulca, Ken Takahashi, J. Espinoza, José Tacza, Ricardo Zubieta, K. Mosquera, J. Apaéstegui

引用次数: 0

The influence of complex terrain on cloud and precipitation on the foot and slope of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原东南部坡脚复杂地形对云量和降水的影响

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07056-3

Junjun Li, Chunsong Lu, Jinghua Chen, Xu Zhou, Kun Yang, Jian Li, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaoqi Xu, Shiying Wu, Rui Hu, Xin He, Zhuangzhuang Zhou, Lei Zhu, Shi Luo

引用次数: 0

Simulation of MJO with improved deep convection scheme in different resolutions of BCC-CSM2 models 在 BCC-CSM2 模型的不同分辨率下利用改进的深对流方案模拟 MJO

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07015-y

Mengzhe Zheng, Tongwen Wu, X. Xin, Xiangwen Liu, Yixiong Lu, W. Jie, Chengjun Xie, Yumeng Zhou

引用次数: 0

The Importance of Understanding Deep Learning. 了解深度学习的重要性。

IF 0.9 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10670-022-00605-y

Tim Räz, Claus Beisbart

引用次数: 0

The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America. 使用允许对流的区域气候模型模拟来表示南美洲上空云带事件的附加值。

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3

Marcia T Zilli, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Neil C G Hart, Kate Halladay, Ron Kahana, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Prein, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu

{"title":"The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America.","authors":"Marcia T Zilli, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Neil C G Hart, Kate Halladay, Ron Kahana, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Prein, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3","url":null,"abstract":"Climate science has long explored whether higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) provide improved simulation of regional climates over global climate models (GCMs). The advent of convective-permitting RCMs (CPRCMs), where sufficiently fine-scale grids allow explicitly resolving rather than parametrising convection, has created a clear distinction between RCM and GCM formulations. This study investigates the simulation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands in a suite of pan-South America convective-permitting Met Office Unified Model (UM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate simulations. All simulations produce annual cycles in TE cloud band frequency within 10-30% of observed climatology. However, too few cloud band days are simulated during the early summer (Nov-Dec) and too many during the core summer (Jan-Feb). Compared with their parent forcing, CPRCMs simulate more dry days but systematically higher daily rainfall rates, keeping the total rain biases low. During cloud band systems, the CPRCMs correctly reproduced the observed changes in tropical rain rates and their importance to climatology. Circulation analysis suggests that simulated lower subtropical rain rates during cloud bands systems, in contrast to the higher rates in the tropics, are associated with weaker northwesterly moisture flux from the Amazon towards southeast South America, more evident in the CPRCMs. Taken together, the results suggest that CPRCMs tend to be more effective at producing heavy daily rainfall rates than parametrised simulations for a given level of near-surface moist energy. The extent to which this improves or degrades biases present in the parent simulations is strongly region-dependent.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"62 12","pages":"10543-10564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11564233/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How the central-western equatorial Pacific easterly wind in early 2022 affects the third-year La Niña occurrence 2022 年初赤道太平洋中西部的东风如何影响第三年拉尼娜现象的发生

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07050-9

Maonan Chen, Chuan Gao, Rongyu Zhang

引用次数: 0

Contrasting physical mechanisms linking stratospheric polar vortex stretching events to cold Eurasia between autumn and late winter 将平流层极地涡旋伸展事件与秋季和深冬期间欧亚大陆寒冷联系起来的物理机制对比

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07030-z

Chuntao Zou, Ruonan Zhang, Pengfei Zhang, Lei Wang, Ruhua Zhang

引用次数: 0

The co-variability of SST and vertical wind shear on the variability of tropical cyclone intensity change in the Northern Hemisphere 海温和垂直风切变对北半球热带气旋强度变化的共同影响