Climate Dynamics最新文献_第10页

Summer surface warming driven by the strong El Niño in the South China Sea 强El Niño驱动南海夏季地表变暖

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06974-6

Hanwen Bi, Qin-Yan Liu, Xianyao Chen

引用次数: 0

Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean 东印度洋ECMWF系统季节预报误差的评估

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3

Michael Mayer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Frederic Vitart

{"title":"Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean","authors":"Michael Mayer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Frederic Vitart","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area where seasonal forecasting systems exhibit large errors. Here we investigate the reasons for these errors in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 using tailored diagnostics and a series of numerical experiments. Results indicate that there are two fundamental and independent sources of forecast errors in the EEIO. The first one is of atmospheric nature and is largely related with too strong and stable easterly atmospheric circulation present in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This induces an easterly bias which leaves the coupled model predominantly in a state with a shallow thermocline and cold SSTs in the EEIO. The second error is of oceanic origin, associated with a too shallow thermocline, which enhances the SST errors arising from errors in the wind. Ocean initial conditions, which depend on both the quality of the assimilation and the ocean model, play an important role in this context. Nevertheless, it is found that the version of the ocean model used for the forecast can also play a non-negligible role at the seasonal time scales, by amplifying or damping the subsurface errors in the initial conditions. Errors in the EEIO are regime-dependent, having different causes in the warm (deep thermocline) regime with strong atmospheric convection and in the cold (shallow thermocline) regime. Errors also exhibit decadal variations, which challenges the calibration methods used in seasonal forecasts.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135968643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mechanisms and impacts of enhanced rainfall over large islands in the Maritime Continent during the mid-holocene 全新世中期海洋大陆大岛屿降水增强的机制和影响

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06948-8

Yudha Setiawan Djamil, Shufang Yuan, Rosbintarti Kartika Lestari, Xianfeng Wang

引用次数: 0

Understanding the regionality and diurnal cycles of precipitation in the Lake Victoria Basin during Boreal fall 了解维多利亚湖盆地北纬秋季降水的地域性和日循环

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06950-0

Kerry H. Cook, Edward K. Vizy

引用次数: 0

Investigating the typicality of the dynamics leading to extreme temperatures in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model 研究IPSL-CM6A-LR模型中导致极端温度的动力学典型性

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06967-5

Robin Noyelle, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda

引用次数: 0

Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation 基于MPI-ESM大集合模拟的长期气候变化对区域体动力海平面统计的影响分析

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-07 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6

Sri D. Nandini-Weiss, S. Ojha, A. Köhl, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Stammer

{"title":"Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation","authors":"Sri D. Nandini-Weiss, S. Ojha, A. Köhl, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Stammer","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Statistics of regional sterodynamic sea level variability are analyzed in terms of probability density functions of a 100-member ensemble of monthly mean sea surface height (SSH) timeseries simulated with the low-resolution Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. To analyze the impact of climate change on sea level statistics, fields of SSH variability, skewness and excess kurtosis representing the historical period 1986–2005 are compared with similar fields from projections for the period 2081–2100 under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate forcing conditions. Larger deviations of the models SSH statistics from Gaussian are limited to the western and eastern tropical Pacific. Under future climate warming conditions, SSH variability of the western tropical Pacific appear more Gaussian in agreement with weaker zonal easterly wind stress pulses, suggesting a reduced El Niño Southern Oscillation activity in the western warm pool region. SSH variability changes show a complex amplitude pattern with some regions becoming less variable, e.g., off the eastern coast of the north American continent, while other regions become more variable, notably the Southern Ocean. A west (decrease)-east (increase) contrast in variability changes across the subtropical Atlantic under RCP8.5 forcing is related to changes in the gyre circulation and a declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to external forcing changes. In addition to global mean sea-level rise of 16 cm for RCP4.5 and 24 cm for RCP8.5, we diagnose regional changes in the tails of the probability density functions, suggesting a potential increased in variability-related extreme sea level events under global warmer conditions.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135254334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change 极端气候变化下AMOC的弱化

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7

Gaurav Madan, Ada Gjermundsen, Silje C. Iversen, Joseph H. LaCasce

{"title":"The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change","authors":"Gaurav Madan, Ada Gjermundsen, Silje C. Iversen, Joseph H. LaCasce","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the quadrupled CO 2 experiments conducted under the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are examined. Increased CO 2 triggers extensive Arctic warming, causing widespread melting of sea ice. The resulting freshwater spreads southward, first from the Labrador Sea and then the Nordic Seas, and proceeds along the eastern coast of North America. The freshwater enters the subpolar gyre north of the separated Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Current. This decreases the density gradient across the current and the current weakens in response, reducing the inflow to the deepwater production regions. The AMOC cell weakens in tandem, first near the North Atlantic Current and then spreading to higher and lower latitudes. This contrasts with the common perception that freshwater caps the convection regions, stifling deepwater production; rather, it is the inflow to the subpolar gyre that is suppressed. Changes in surface temperature have a much weaker effect, and there are no consistent changes in local or remote wind forcing among the models. Thus an increase in freshwater discharge, primarily from the Labrador Sea, is the precursor to AMOC weakening in these simulations.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135347678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Correction to: Characteristics of clustered heavy precipitation events at Northeast China and associated atmospheric circulations 订正为:中国东北聚集性强降水事件特征及相关大气环流

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06981-7

Shunli Jiang, Tingting Han, Botao Zhou, Qiushi Zhang, Xin Hao, Huixin Li

引用次数: 0

A spatial weather generator based on conditional deep convolution generative adversarial nets (cDCGAN) 基于条件深度卷积生成对抗网络(cDCGAN)的空间天气发生器

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06971-9

Jian Sha, Xinyu Chen, Yaxin Chang, Man Zhang, Xue Li

引用次数: 0

Sensitivity of the blocking-North Atlantic Oscillation relationship to index 阻塞-北大西洋涛动关系对指数的敏感性

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06965-7

Kayla Besong, Ben Kirtman

{"title":"Sensitivity of the blocking-North Atlantic Oscillation relationship to index","authors":"Kayla Besong, Ben Kirtman","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06965-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06965-7","url":null,"abstract":"North Atlantic blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are two phenomena that have been extensively studied due to their significant spatio-temporal overlap. This work presents an index comparison study applied to this relationship, bringing light to how the strength of it varies considerably depending on blocking index choice and why this could be leading to discrepancies found in previous works. A PV–θ blocking index is used alongside a direction of breaking metric to classify blocking as either cyclonic or anticyclonic based on the Rossby wave breaking occurring at onset. These results are compared against those found using an absolute geopotential height (AGP) index. The analysis is performed using both area-averaged blocking count during winter and at each grid-point across the North Atlantic for all seasons. The study demonstrates that the choice of method significantly affects the results when correlating wintertime blocking and NAO. Blocks found using the AGP index show a much stronger correlation with the NAO compared to those found with the PV–θ index. Other analyses, such as frequency, duration, and composites, suggest that the AGP algorithm detects stronger, more mature, and persistent blocks, which promote a higher correlation with the NAO compared to the shorter-lived PV–θ blocks. Based on this analysis, it can be concluded that different blocking events are being measured between the two indices, contributing to the stark differences in the correlation analysis, each with their own advantages and disadvantages in relating blocking to the NAO.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135644227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0