Climate Dynamics最新文献

{"title":"The influence of bias correction of global climate models prior to dynamical downscaling on projections of changes in climate: a case study over the CORDEX-Australasia domain","authors":"Karuru Wamahiu, Jatin Kala, Jason P. Evans","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06949-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06949-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate the influence of bias correction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) prior to dynamical downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), on the change in climate projected. We use 4 GCMs which are bias corrected against ERA-Interim re-analysis as a surrogate truth, and carry out bias corrected and non-bias corrected simulations over the CORDEX Australasia domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Our results show that when considering the effect of bias correction on current and future climate separately, bias correction has a large influence on precipitation and temperature, especially for models which are known to have large biases. However, when considering the change in climate, i.e the $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> change (future minus current), we found that while differences between bias-corrected and non-corrected RCM simulations can be substantial (e.g. more than $$1,^circ$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> <mml:msup> <mml:mspace /> <mml:mo>∘</mml:mo> </mml:msup> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> C for temperatures) these differences are generally smaller than the models’ inter-annual variability. Overall, averaged across all variables, bias corrected boundary conditions produce an overall reduction in the range, standard deviation and mean absolute deviation of the change in climate projected by the 4 models tested, over 61.5%, 62% and 58% of land area, with a larger reduction for precipitation as compared to temperature indices. In addition, we show that changes in the $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> change for DJF tasmax are broadly linked to precipitation changes and consequently soil moisture and surface sensible heat flux and changes in the $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> changefor JJA tasmin are linked to downward longwave heat flux. This study shows that bias correction of GCMs against re-analysis prior to dynamical downscaling can increase our confidence in projected future changes produced by downscaled ensembles.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135406482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating bi-decadal precipitation changes over the Northwest Himalayas during the pre-monsoon: role of Pacific decadal oscillations","authors":"Deepanshu Aggarwal, Rohit Chakraborty, Raju Attada","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06969-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06969-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136248785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The warm Arctic-cold north american pattern in CanESM5 large ensemble simulations: Eurasian influence and uncertainty due to internal variability","authors":"Bin Yu, Hai Lin","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06966-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06966-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the warm Arctic-cold North American pattern (WACNA) and its connection with the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern (WACE) using ERA5 reanalysis and a 50-member ensemble of historical climate simulations produced by CanESM5, the Canadian model participated in CMIP6. The results indicate that a negative WACE-like pattern typically precedes a positive WACNA pattern by one month, and the presence of a negative Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA)-like circulation pattern connects Eurasia and North America, along with the Pacific-North American (PNA)-like pattern. The negative ABNA-like pattern can be attributed to anomalous heating in southern Siberia, which is associated with the negative WACE pattern and its featured Eurasian warming. The negative PNA-like pattern is influenced by negative SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, resembling tropical ENSO variability. Anomalous temperature advection in the lower troposphere follows the circulation anomaly, which supports the formation of WACNA. Conversely, processes with circulation anomalies of opposite sign result in a negative WACNA pattern. The tropical ENSO variability does not significantly impact the WACNA pattern and its linkage with WACE. CanESM5 simulates the WACNA pattern and WACE-WACNA connection well, with some discrepancies in the magnitude of anomalies compared to ERA5 reanalysis. The uncertainty in the simulated WACNA pattern due to internal climate variability is dominated by two modes of inter-member variability: a southeast-northwest phase shift and a local variation in amplitude.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136336934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations and driving factors of annual frequency of ground surface freeze–thaw in China","authors":"Ze Zhang, Xiang Long Li, Andrey Melnikov, Anatoli Brouchkov, Dou Dou Jin, Xiang Xi Meng","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06952-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06952-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135246630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years","authors":"Gerald A. Meehl, Ben Kirtman, Anne A. Glanville, Jadwiga Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Stephen Yeager","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06970-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06970-w","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135193869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wintertime ocean–atmosphere interaction processes associated with the SST variability in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone","authors":"Qionghui Huang, Jiabei Fang, Lingfeng Tao, Xiu-Qun Yang","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06958-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06958-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent research indicates that the midlatitude oceanic frontal zones are the key regions of ocean–atmosphere interaction. The thermal condition of midlatitude ocean in frontal zones can affect the atmosphere efficiently through both diabatic heating and transient eddy feedback. In this study, the wintertime SST variability in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) of the North Pacific and the associated ocean–atmosphere interaction mechanism are examined based on observational and theoretical analyses. It is found that the SAFZ-related SST anomaly is characterized as a large-scale interannual mode that can persist during the whole winter, and that its evolution is accompanied with local ocean–atmosphere interaction processes. The initial anticyclonic surface wind anomaly associated with the weakened Aleutian Low forces a large-scale warm SST anomaly in midlatitude North Pacific by driving northward Ekman flow and downward heat flux. With the increase of SST anomaly, the air-sea heat flux exchange reverses, indicating that the ocean starts to heat the atmosphere. In addition to increasing the diabatic heating, the warm SST anomaly strengthens the SST gradient in the north part of SAFZ. The low-level atmospheric baroclinicity is adjusted to synchronize with the SAFZ correspondingly due to oceanic thermal influence, causing change of transient eddy activities. Though all the ocean-induced diabatic heating, transient eddy heating and transient eddy vorticity forcing are enhanced over SAFZ, the last physical process plays the most important role in shifting and maintaining the equivalent barotropic atmospheric circulation anomalies. Therefore, the ocean–atmosphere interaction provides a mechanism for the development and maintenance of SAFZ-related anomalies of the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere system throughout the winter.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135199761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interannual teleconnections in the Sahara temperatures associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during boreal winter","authors":"Liming Zhou, Wenjian Hua, Sharon E. Nicholson, Joseph P. Clark","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06962-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06962-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135387417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flash droughts in Central Europe and their circulation drivers","authors":"Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Jan Balek","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06964-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06964-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135536084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robustness of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa deduced from GCMs and RCMs against reanalysis and gridded observations","authors":"Daniel Abel, Katrin Ziegler, Imoleayo Ezekiel Gbode, Torsten Weber, Vincent O. Ajayi, Seydou B. Traoré, Heiko Paeth","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06956-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06956-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study assesses the ability of climate models to represent rainy season (RS) dependent climate indices relevant for agriculture and crop-specific agricultural indices in eleven African subregions. For this, we analyze model ensembles build from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from CORDEX-CORE (RCM_hist) and their respective driving General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 (GCM_hist). Those are compared with gridded reference data including reanalyses at high spatio-temporal resolution (≤ 0.25°, daily) over the climatological period 1981–2010. Furthermore, the ensemble of RCM-evaluation runs forced by ERA-Interim (RCM_eval) is considered. Beside precipitation indices like the precipitation sum or number of rainy days annually and during the RS, we examine three agricultural indices (crop water need (CWN), irrigation requirement, water availability), depending on the RS’ onset. The agricultural-relevant indices as simulated by climate models, including CORDEX-CORE, are assessed for the first time over several African subregions. All model ensembles simulate the general precipitation characteristics well. However, their performance strongly depends on the subregion. We show that the models can represent the RS in subregions with one RS adequately yet struggle in reproducing characteristics of two RSs. Precipitation indices based on the RS also show variable errors among the models and subregions. The representation of CWN is affected by the model family (GCM, RCM) and the forcing data (GCM, ERA-Interim). Nevertheless, the too coarse resolution of the GCMs hinders the representation of such specific indices as they are not able to consider land surface features and related processes of smaller scale. Additionally, the daily scale and the usage of complex variables (e.g., surface latent heat flux for CWN) and related preconditions (e.g., RS-onset and its spatial representation) add uncertainty to the index calculation. Mostly, the RCMs show a higher skill in representing the indices and add value to their forcing models.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135538110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How climate change is affecting the summer monsoon extreme rainfall pattern over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India: present and future perspectives","authors":"Manas Pant, R. Bhatla, Soumik Ghosh, Sushant Das, R. K. Mall","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06953-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06953-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135536548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}