Climate Dynamics最新文献

{"title":"Understanding the regionality and diurnal cycles of precipitation in the Lake Victoria Basin during Boreal fall","authors":"Kerry H. Cook, Edward K. Vizy","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06950-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06950-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136295054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the typicality of the dynamics leading to extreme temperatures in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model","authors":"Robin Noyelle, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06967-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06967-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"185 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135044412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation","authors":"Sri D. Nandini-Weiss, S. Ojha, A. Köhl, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Stammer","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Statistics of regional sterodynamic sea level variability are analyzed in terms of probability density functions of a 100-member ensemble of monthly mean sea surface height (SSH) timeseries simulated with the low-resolution Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. To analyze the impact of climate change on sea level statistics, fields of SSH variability, skewness and excess kurtosis representing the historical period 1986–2005 are compared with similar fields from projections for the period 2081–2100 under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate forcing conditions. Larger deviations of the models SSH statistics from Gaussian are limited to the western and eastern tropical Pacific. Under future climate warming conditions, SSH variability of the western tropical Pacific appear more Gaussian in agreement with weaker zonal easterly wind stress pulses, suggesting a reduced El Niño Southern Oscillation activity in the western warm pool region. SSH variability changes show a complex amplitude pattern with some regions becoming less variable, e.g., off the eastern coast of the north American continent, while other regions become more variable, notably the Southern Ocean. A west (decrease)-east (increase) contrast in variability changes across the subtropical Atlantic under RCP8.5 forcing is related to changes in the gyre circulation and a declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to external forcing changes. In addition to global mean sea-level rise of 16 cm for RCP4.5 and 24 cm for RCP8.5, we diagnose regional changes in the tails of the probability density functions, suggesting a potential increased in variability-related extreme sea level events under global warmer conditions.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135254334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change","authors":"Gaurav Madan, Ada Gjermundsen, Silje C. Iversen, Joseph H. LaCasce","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the quadrupled CO 2 experiments conducted under the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are examined. Increased CO 2 triggers extensive Arctic warming, causing widespread melting of sea ice. The resulting freshwater spreads southward, first from the Labrador Sea and then the Nordic Seas, and proceeds along the eastern coast of North America. The freshwater enters the subpolar gyre north of the separated Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Current. This decreases the density gradient across the current and the current weakens in response, reducing the inflow to the deepwater production regions. The AMOC cell weakens in tandem, first near the North Atlantic Current and then spreading to higher and lower latitudes. This contrasts with the common perception that freshwater caps the convection regions, stifling deepwater production; rather, it is the inflow to the subpolar gyre that is suppressed. Changes in surface temperature have a much weaker effect, and there are no consistent changes in local or remote wind forcing among the models. Thus an increase in freshwater discharge, primarily from the Labrador Sea, is the precursor to AMOC weakening in these simulations.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135347678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to: Characteristics of clustered heavy precipitation events at Northeast China and associated atmospheric circulations","authors":"Shunli Jiang, Tingting Han, Botao Zhou, Qiushi Zhang, Xin Hao, Huixin Li","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06981-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06981-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135351994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A spatial weather generator based on conditional deep convolution generative adversarial nets (cDCGAN)","authors":"Jian Sha, Xinyu Chen, Yaxin Chang, Man Zhang, Xue Li","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06971-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06971-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134976747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity of the blocking-North Atlantic Oscillation relationship to index","authors":"Kayla Besong, Ben Kirtman","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06965-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06965-7","url":null,"abstract":"North Atlantic blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are two phenomena that have been extensively studied due to their significant spatio-temporal overlap. This work presents an index comparison study applied to this relationship, bringing light to how the strength of it varies considerably depending on blocking index choice and why this could be leading to discrepancies found in previous works. A PV–θ blocking index is used alongside a direction of breaking metric to classify blocking as either cyclonic or anticyclonic based on the Rossby wave breaking occurring at onset. These results are compared against those found using an absolute geopotential height (AGP) index. The analysis is performed using both area-averaged blocking count during winter and at each grid-point across the North Atlantic for all seasons. The study demonstrates that the choice of method significantly affects the results when correlating wintertime blocking and NAO. Blocks found using the AGP index show a much stronger correlation with the NAO compared to those found with the PV–θ index. Other analyses, such as frequency, duration, and composites, suggest that the AGP algorithm detects stronger, more mature, and persistent blocks, which promote a higher correlation with the NAO compared to the shorter-lived PV–θ blocks. Based on this analysis, it can be concluded that different blocking events are being measured between the two indices, contributing to the stark differences in the correlation analysis, each with their own advantages and disadvantages in relating blocking to the NAO.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135644227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The intensification of flash droughts across China from 1981 to 2021","authors":"Shuyi Zhang, Mingxing Li, Zhuguo Ma, Dongnan Jian, Meixia Lv, Qing yang, Yawen Duan, Doaa Amin","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06980-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06980-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135696567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The influence of bias correction of global climate models prior to dynamical downscaling on projections of changes in climate: a case study over the CORDEX-Australasia domain","authors":"Karuru Wamahiu, Jatin Kala, Jason P. Evans","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06949-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06949-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate the influence of bias correction of Global Climate Models (GCMs) prior to dynamical downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), on the change in climate projected. We use 4 GCMs which are bias corrected against ERA-Interim re-analysis as a surrogate truth, and carry out bias corrected and non-bias corrected simulations over the CORDEX Australasia domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Our results show that when considering the effect of bias correction on current and future climate separately, bias correction has a large influence on precipitation and temperature, especially for models which are known to have large biases. However, when considering the change in climate, i.e the $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> change (future minus current), we found that while differences between bias-corrected and non-corrected RCM simulations can be substantial (e.g. more than $$1,^circ$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> <mml:msup> <mml:mspace /> <mml:mo>∘</mml:mo> </mml:msup> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> C for temperatures) these differences are generally smaller than the models’ inter-annual variability. Overall, averaged across all variables, bias corrected boundary conditions produce an overall reduction in the range, standard deviation and mean absolute deviation of the change in climate projected by the 4 models tested, over 61.5%, 62% and 58% of land area, with a larger reduction for precipitation as compared to temperature indices. In addition, we show that changes in the $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> change for DJF tasmax are broadly linked to precipitation changes and consequently soil moisture and surface sensible heat flux and changes in the $$Delta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:mi>Δ</mml:mi> </mml:math> changefor JJA tasmin are linked to downward longwave heat flux. This study shows that bias correction of GCMs against re-analysis prior to dynamical downscaling can increase our confidence in projected future changes produced by downscaled ensembles.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135406482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating bi-decadal precipitation changes over the Northwest Himalayas during the pre-monsoon: role of Pacific decadal oscillations","authors":"Deepanshu Aggarwal, Rohit Chakraborty, Raju Attada","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06969-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06969-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136248785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}