Climate Dynamics最新文献_第8页

Performance of CMIP6 models over South America CMIP6模型在南美洲的性能

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06979-1

Anna Carolina Bazzanela, Claudine Dereczynski, Wanderson Luiz-Silva, Pedro Regoto

引用次数: 0

Assessing the future influence of the North Pacific trade wind precursors on ENSO in the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble 在CMIP6 HighResMIP多模式综合中评估北太平洋信风前兆对ENSO的未来影响

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06976-4

Valentina Pivotti, Bruce T. Anderson

{"title":"Assessing the future influence of the North Pacific trade wind precursors on ENSO in the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble","authors":"Valentina Pivotti, Bruce T. Anderson","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06976-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06976-4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as one of the largest coupled climate modes, influences the livelihoods of millions of people and ecosystems survival. Thus, how ENSO is expected to behave under the influence of anthropogenic climate change is a substantial question to investigate. In this paper, we analyze future predictions of specific traits of ENSO, in combination with a subset of well-established precursors—the Trade Wind Charging and North Pacific Meridional Mode (TWC/NPMM). We study it across three sets of experiments from a protocol-driven ensemble from CMIP6—the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Namely, (1) experiments at constant 1950’s radiative forcings, and (2) experiments of present (1950–2014) and (3) future (2015–2050) climate with prescribed increasing radiative forcings. We first investigate the current and predicted spatial characteristics of ENSO events, by calculating area, amplitude and longitude of the Center of Heat Index (CHI). We see that TWC/NPMM-charged events are consistently stronger, in both the presence and absence of external forcings; however, as anthropogenic forcings increase, the area of all ENSO events increases. Since the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship has been shown to affect the oscillatory behavior of ENSO, we analyze ENSO frequency by calculating CHI-analogous indicators on the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) of its signal. With this new methodology, we show that across the ensemble, ENSO oscillates at different frequencies, and its oscillatory behavior shows different degrees of stochasticity, over time and across models. However, we see no consistent indication of future trends in the oscillatory behavior of ENSO and the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136032924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Correction: Aspects of potential vorticity circulation in the Northern Hemisphere: climatology and variation 订正:北半球位涡环流的各个方面:气候学和变化

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06987-1

Chen Sheng, Guoxiong Wu, Bian He, Yimin Liu

引用次数: 0

Combined effects of ENSO and PDO on activity of major hurricanes in the eastern North Pacific ENSO和PDO对北太平洋东部主要飓风活动的联合影响

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06973-7

Chaoming Huang, Hailong Liu, Hong Li, Juncheng Zuo, Ruyun Wang

引用次数: 0

Long-term coupled variability of temperature and precipitation in eastern China and the underlying mechanisms 中国东部气温和降水的长期耦合变率及其机制

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06963-9

Yue Zhang, Wen Zhou, Xiaocheng Yu, Ye Tian, Ruhua Zhang

引用次数: 0

A statistical review on the optimal fingerprinting approach in climate change studies 气候变化研究中最佳指纹识别方法的统计综述

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-15 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06975-5

Hanyue Chen, Song Xi Chen, Mu Mu

引用次数: 1

Tropopause folds over the Tibetan Plateau and their impact on water vapor in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere 青藏高原对流层顶褶皱及其对对流层上层-平流层下层水汽的影响

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-14 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06978-2

Yongpeng Zhang, Qian Huang, Kun Guo, Mengyuan Wang, Huiren Liao, Yan Chou, Xin He

{"title":"Tropopause folds over the Tibetan Plateau and their impact on water vapor in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere","authors":"Yongpeng Zhang, Qian Huang, Kun Guo, Mengyuan Wang, Huiren Liao, Yan Chou, Xin He","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06978-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06978-2","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As one of the most important greenhouse gases, water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant impact on the global earth-atmosphere system. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important high terrain which exerts a profound impact on the change of weather and climate, and mass exchange. Tropopause folds occur frequently over the TP due to the impact of the subtropical westerly jet, which affects water vapor transport between the stratosphere and the troposphere. In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of tropopause folds over the TP are examined by applying an improved three-dimensional (3D) labeling algorithm to the ERA5 reanalysis data (1979 to 2019). The effects of different fold depths in various regions over the TP on the variations of UTLS water vapor are further studied. The results of a case study (25 February 2008) suggest that there is a good continuity in identification of the fold depth for the same fold event using the improved 3D labeling algorithm. The fold depth and height are consistent with the results of radiosonde data and ERA5 reanalysis data. The fold frequency over the TP shows an increasing trend in the last 41 years, with slightly lower frequency of medium folds than that of shallow folds, and lowest frequency of deep folds. There is increasing water vapor in the UTLS over the TP due to tropopause folds. The results indicate that tropopause folds enhance the horizontal divergence of water vapor in the UTLS and increase the vertical water vapor flux in the UTLS region. The folding over the plateau leads to increased moisture in the UTLS. It is argued that vertical velocity anomalies in the vicinity of the fold and subgrid perturbations have a significant impact on the increase of UTLS water vapor over the TP. The results of this work provide a scientific basis for a better understanding of the stratosphere-troposphere exchanges due to tropopause folds over the TP.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"234 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135766446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Summer surface warming driven by the strong El Niño in the South China Sea 强El Niño驱动南海夏季地表变暖

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06974-6

Hanwen Bi, Qin-Yan Liu, Xianyao Chen

引用次数: 0

Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean 东印度洋ECMWF系统季节预报误差的评估

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3

Michael Mayer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Frederic Vitart

{"title":"Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean","authors":"Michael Mayer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Frederic Vitart","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area where seasonal forecasting systems exhibit large errors. Here we investigate the reasons for these errors in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 using tailored diagnostics and a series of numerical experiments. Results indicate that there are two fundamental and independent sources of forecast errors in the EEIO. The first one is of atmospheric nature and is largely related with too strong and stable easterly atmospheric circulation present in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This induces an easterly bias which leaves the coupled model predominantly in a state with a shallow thermocline and cold SSTs in the EEIO. The second error is of oceanic origin, associated with a too shallow thermocline, which enhances the SST errors arising from errors in the wind. Ocean initial conditions, which depend on both the quality of the assimilation and the ocean model, play an important role in this context. Nevertheless, it is found that the version of the ocean model used for the forecast can also play a non-negligible role at the seasonal time scales, by amplifying or damping the subsurface errors in the initial conditions. Errors in the EEIO are regime-dependent, having different causes in the warm (deep thermocline) regime with strong atmospheric convection and in the cold (shallow thermocline) regime. Errors also exhibit decadal variations, which challenges the calibration methods used in seasonal forecasts.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135968643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mechanisms and impacts of enhanced rainfall over large islands in the Maritime Continent during the mid-holocene 全新世中期海洋大陆大岛屿降水增强的机制和影响

2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06948-8

Yudha Setiawan Djamil, Shufang Yuan, Rosbintarti Kartika Lestari, Xianfeng Wang

引用次数: 0