Climate Dynamics最新文献_第2页

Taxus tree-ring chronologies from southern England reveal western European hydroclimate changes over the past three centuries. 来自英格兰南部的红豆杉年轮年表揭示了过去三个世纪西欧水文气候的变化。

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2

Tatiana Bebchuk, Andy K Moir, Tito Arosio, Alexander V Kirdyanov, Max C A Torbenson, Paul J Krusic, Toby R Hindson, Heidi Howard, Agata Buchwal, Charles A P Norman, Ulf Büntgen

{"title":"Taxus tree-ring chronologies from southern England reveal western European hydroclimate changes over the past three centuries.","authors":"Tatiana Bebchuk, Andy K Moir, Tito Arosio, Alexander V Kirdyanov, Max C A Torbenson, Paul J Krusic, Toby R Hindson, Heidi Howard, Agata Buchwal, Charles A P Norman, Ulf Büntgen","doi":"10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2","url":null,"abstract":"Heatwaves and summer droughts across Europe are likely to intensify under anthropogenic global warming thereby affecting ecological and societal systems. To place modern trends and extremes in the context of past natural variability, annually resolved and absolutely dated climate reconstructions are needed. Here, we present a network of 153 yew (Taxus baccata L.) tree-ring width (TRW) series from 22 sites in southern England that cover the past 310 years. Significant positive correlations were found between TRW chronologies and both April-July precipitation totals (r > 0.7) and July drought indices (r > 0.59) back to 1901 CE (p < 0.05). We used a suite of residual and standard TRW chronologies to reconstruct interannual to multi-decadal spring-summer precipitation and mid-summer drought variability over western Europe, respectively. Our yew hydroclimate reconstructions capture the majority of reported summer droughts and pluvials back to 1710 CE. Clusters of severe drought spells occurred in the second half of the 18th and mid-twentieth century. Our study suggests that the frequency and intensity of recent hydroclimate extremes over western Europe are likely still within the range of past natural variability.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07601-2.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"63 2","pages":"108"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11782366/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143078748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Systematic biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean and their influence on seasonal forecasts of the IOD. 赤道印度洋的系统偏差及其对IOD季节预报的影响。

IF 3.7 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07794-6

Marimel Gler, Andrew G Turner, Linda C Hirons, Caroline M Wainwright, Charline Marzin

{"title":"Systematic biases over the equatorial Indian Ocean and their influence on seasonal forecasts of the IOD.","authors":"Marimel Gler, Andrew G Turner, Linda C Hirons, Caroline M Wainwright, Charline Marzin","doi":"10.1007/s00382-025-07794-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07794-6","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial given its socioeconomic impacts on countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. Using hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea6), coupled mean-state biases in the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO and EEIO) and their impacts on IOD prediction are examined. Results show that GloSea6 exhibits a pronounced cold bias in the EEIO that rapidly develops after the monsoon onset in boreal summer (JJA, July-August) and persists into autumn (SON, September-November). This cold bias is linked to erroneous easterlies and a shallow thermocline, likely associated with the monsoon circulation. The seasonal evolution and relative timing of the precipitation biases, such that they develop through JJA in the EEIO but follow in the WEIO in SON, suggests that the EEIO plays the leading role in the development of coupled feedbacks that lead to the large dipole pattern of coupled biases. Analysis of skill metrics for the IOD shows that GloSea6 achieves a high anomaly correlation coefficient at short lead times, though it tends to overestimate IOD amplitude. This overestimation is larger in the eastern IOD pole than in the western pole and is likely linked to the poor representation of the evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the EEIO during IOD events in SON. This study highlights the crucial role of regional biases, particularly in the EEIO, in shaping IOD variability and demonstrates that addressing such biases in GloSea6 could improve IOD prediction.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"63 8","pages":"328"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12361278/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144944995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantifying the state-dependent causal effect of Barents-Kara Sea ice loss on the stratospheric polar vortex in a large ensemble simulation. 在大型集合模拟中量化巴伦支-喀拉海冰损失对平流层极地涡旋的状态依赖因果效应。

IF 3.7 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07802-9

Xiaocen Shen, Marlene Kretschmer, Theodore G Shepherd

{"title":"Quantifying the state-dependent causal effect of Barents-Kara Sea ice loss on the stratospheric polar vortex in a large ensemble simulation.","authors":"Xiaocen Shen, Marlene Kretschmer, Theodore G Shepherd","doi":"10.1007/s00382-025-07802-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00382-025-07802-9","url":null,"abstract":"The Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (BKS) has undergone dramatic declines in recent decades, consistent with the overall reduction in sea ice across the Arctic region. There has been a long-standing scientific question whether this BKS loss significantly influences winter temperature extremes over mid-to-high latitudes. While there is ongoing debate on this point, it is generally acknowledged that BKS loss affects the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) through the enhancement of upward propagating waves, which itself can subsequently influence surface weather and climate conditions. However, due to the large internal variability within the climate system and the limited observational data, the strength of the BKS-SPV linkage and its dependence on different background states remain unclear. In this work, we investigate the causal effect of BKS change on SPV using a climate model with large ensemble simulations. Consistent with previous literature, the results indicate that BKS loss significantly weakens the SPV, with the magnitude of the response varying with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) phases, indicating a state-dependent causal effect. In particular, El Niño is found to suppress the causal effect of BKS change on the SPV, whereas La Niña and neutral ENSO strengthen it, which is consistent with what is found from observations. In contrast, the effect of QBO alone is relatively weak but becomes more pronounced when combined with ENSO. Dynamical analyses reveal that both tropospheric wave forcing and modulation of stratospheric wave propagation contribute to the state-dependent causal effects. By leveraging large ensemble simulations and combining statistical and physical analyses, this study provides an additional perspective on understanding the factors influencing the SPV response to BKS loss, which could ultimately impact surface climate.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"63 8","pages":"305"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12328497/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144815911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multiple linear regression model for the prediction of summer rainfall in the northwestern Peruvian Amazon using large-scale indices 利用大尺度指数预测秘鲁亚马逊西北部夏季降雨量的多元线性回归模型

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07044-7

Juan C. Sulca, Ken Takahashi, J. Espinoza, José Tacza, Ricardo Zubieta, K. Mosquera, J. Apaéstegui

引用次数: 0

The influence of complex terrain on cloud and precipitation on the foot and slope of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原东南部坡脚复杂地形对云量和降水的影响

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07056-3

Junjun Li, Chunsong Lu, Jinghua Chen, Xu Zhou, Kun Yang, Jian Li, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaoqi Xu, Shiying Wu, Rui Hu, Xin He, Zhuangzhuang Zhou, Lei Zhu, Shi Luo

引用次数: 0

Simulation of MJO with improved deep convection scheme in different resolutions of BCC-CSM2 models 在 BCC-CSM2 模型的不同分辨率下利用改进的深对流方案模拟 MJO

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07015-y

Mengzhe Zheng, Tongwen Wu, X. Xin, Xiangwen Liu, Yixiong Lu, W. Jie, Chengjun Xie, Yumeng Zhou

引用次数: 0

The Importance of Understanding Deep Learning. 了解深度学习的重要性。

IF 0.9 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10670-022-00605-y

Tim Räz, Claus Beisbart

引用次数: 0

The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America. 使用允许对流的区域气候模型模拟来表示南美洲上空云带事件的附加值。

IF 3.8 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3

Marcia T Zilli, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Neil C G Hart, Kate Halladay, Ron Kahana, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Prein, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu

{"title":"The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America.","authors":"Marcia T Zilli, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Neil C G Hart, Kate Halladay, Ron Kahana, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Prein, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3","url":null,"abstract":"Climate science has long explored whether higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) provide improved simulation of regional climates over global climate models (GCMs). The advent of convective-permitting RCMs (CPRCMs), where sufficiently fine-scale grids allow explicitly resolving rather than parametrising convection, has created a clear distinction between RCM and GCM formulations. This study investigates the simulation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands in a suite of pan-South America convective-permitting Met Office Unified Model (UM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate simulations. All simulations produce annual cycles in TE cloud band frequency within 10-30% of observed climatology. However, too few cloud band days are simulated during the early summer (Nov-Dec) and too many during the core summer (Jan-Feb). Compared with their parent forcing, CPRCMs simulate more dry days but systematically higher daily rainfall rates, keeping the total rain biases low. During cloud band systems, the CPRCMs correctly reproduced the observed changes in tropical rain rates and their importance to climatology. Circulation analysis suggests that simulated lower subtropical rain rates during cloud bands systems, in contrast to the higher rates in the tropics, are associated with weaker northwesterly moisture flux from the Amazon towards southeast South America, more evident in the CPRCMs. Taken together, the results suggest that CPRCMs tend to be more effective at producing heavy daily rainfall rates than parametrised simulations for a given level of near-surface moist energy. The extent to which this improves or degrades biases present in the parent simulations is strongly region-dependent.","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"62 12","pages":"10543-10564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11564233/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How the central-western equatorial Pacific easterly wind in early 2022 affects the third-year La Niña occurrence 2022 年初赤道太平洋中西部的东风如何影响第三年拉尼娜现象的发生

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07050-9

Maonan Chen, Chuan Gao, Rongyu Zhang

引用次数: 0

Contrasting physical mechanisms linking stratospheric polar vortex stretching events to cold Eurasia between autumn and late winter 将平流层极地涡旋伸展事件与秋季和深冬期间欧亚大陆寒冷联系起来的物理机制对比

IF 4.6 2区地球科学

Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07030-z

Chuntao Zou, Ruonan Zhang, Pengfei Zhang, Lei Wang, Ruhua Zhang

引用次数: 0