Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability.

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-05 DOI:10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
Buwen Dong, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ioana Colfescu, Ben Harvey, Joël Hirschi, Simon Josey, Hua Lu, Jenny Mecking, Marilena Oltmanns, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Stefanie Rynders, Len Shaffrey, Bablu Sinha, Rowan Sutton, Antje Weisheimer
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale changes play a vital role in shaping regional climate and extreme weather events across the UK and Western Europe. This review synthesizes the characteristics of observed large-scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations during past decades, identifies the drivers and physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and discusses the predictability of these circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, anthropogenic forcings (especially greenhouse gases), and natural forcings (such as solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are identified as key contributors to large-scale variability in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations. However, there remain many uncertainties regarding the detailed characteristics of these various influences, and in some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that a better understanding of these drivers, and more accurate quantification of their relative roles, are crucial for more reliable decadal predictions and projections of regional climate for the North Atlantic and Europe.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1.

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来源期刊
Climate Dynamics
Climate Dynamics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
15.20%
发文量
483
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: The international journal Climate Dynamics provides for the publication of high-quality research on all aspects of the dynamics of the global climate system. Coverage includes original paleoclimatic, diagnostic, analytical and numerical modeling research on the structure and behavior of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biomass and land surface as interacting components of the dynamics of global climate. Contributions are focused on selected aspects of climate dynamics on particular scales of space or time. The journal also publishes reviews and papers emphasizing an integrated view of the physical and biogeochemical processes governing climate and climate change.
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