Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability.

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-05 DOI:10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
Buwen Dong, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ioana Colfescu, Ben Harvey, Joël Hirschi, Simon Josey, Hua Lu, Jenny Mecking, Marilena Oltmanns, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Stefanie Rynders, Len Shaffrey, Bablu Sinha, Rowan Sutton, Antje Weisheimer
{"title":"Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability.","authors":"Buwen Dong, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ioana Colfescu, Ben Harvey, Joël Hirschi, Simon Josey, Hua Lu, Jenny Mecking, Marilena Oltmanns, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Stefanie Rynders, Len Shaffrey, Bablu Sinha, Rowan Sutton, Antje Weisheimer","doi":"10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale changes play a vital role in shaping regional climate and extreme weather events across the UK and Western Europe. This review synthesizes the characteristics of observed large-scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations during past decades, identifies the drivers and physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and discusses the predictability of these circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, anthropogenic forcings (especially greenhouse gases), and natural forcings (such as solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are identified as key contributors to large-scale variability in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations. However, there remain many uncertainties regarding the detailed characteristics of these various influences, and in some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that a better understanding of these drivers, and more accurate quantification of their relative roles, are crucial for more reliable decadal predictions and projections of regional climate for the North Atlantic and Europe.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1.</p>","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"63 2","pages":"113"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11882673/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climate Dynamics","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/2/5 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Significant changes have occurred during the last few decades across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. These large-scale changes play a vital role in shaping regional climate and extreme weather events across the UK and Western Europe. This review synthesizes the characteristics of observed large-scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations during past decades, identifies the drivers and physical processes responsible for these changes, outlines projected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and discusses the predictability of these circulations. On multi-decadal time scales, internal variability, anthropogenic forcings (especially greenhouse gases), and natural forcings (such as solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are identified as key contributors to large-scale variability in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations. However, there remain many uncertainties regarding the detailed characteristics of these various influences, and in some cases their relative importance. We therefore conclude that a better understanding of these drivers, and more accurate quantification of their relative roles, are crucial for more reliable decadal predictions and projections of regional climate for the North Atlantic and Europe.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1.

北大西洋大气和海洋环流大尺度变化的主要驱动因素及其可预测性。
在过去的几十年里,北大西洋气候系统发生了重大变化,包括大气、海洋和冰冻圈。这些大规模的变化在塑造英国和西欧的区域气候和极端天气事件中起着至关重要的作用。本文综合了近几十年来观测到的北大西洋大气和海洋环流大尺度变化的特征,确定了造成这些变化的驱动因素和物理过程,概述了由于人为变暖导致的预估变化,并讨论了这些环流的可预测性。在多年代际时间尺度上,内部变率、人为强迫(特别是温室气体)和自然强迫(如太阳变率和火山爆发)被确定为北大西洋大气和海洋环流大尺度变率的关键因素。然而,关于这些不同影响的详细特征,以及在某些情况下它们的相对重要性,仍有许多不确定因素。因此,我们得出结论,更好地了解这些驱动因素并更准确地量化它们的相对作用,对于更可靠地预测北大西洋和欧洲区域气候的十年代际预测和预估至关重要。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,下载地址:10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Climate Dynamics
Climate Dynamics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
15.20%
发文量
483
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: The international journal Climate Dynamics provides for the publication of high-quality research on all aspects of the dynamics of the global climate system. Coverage includes original paleoclimatic, diagnostic, analytical and numerical modeling research on the structure and behavior of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biomass and land surface as interacting components of the dynamics of global climate. Contributions are focused on selected aspects of climate dynamics on particular scales of space or time. The journal also publishes reviews and papers emphasizing an integrated view of the physical and biogeochemical processes governing climate and climate change.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信