地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Clumped isotope evidence for methane cycling in coastal aquatic system","authors":"Xinchu Wang,&nbsp;Xu Zhang,&nbsp;Wei Guo,&nbsp;Hu Ding,&nbsp;Jiarui Liu,&nbsp;Rob M. Ellam,&nbsp;Si-Liang Li,&nbsp;Cong-Qiang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.08.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.08.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays an important role in Earth’s climate change. The aquatic methane emissions are dynamic hotspots, while the cause of high variability of methane fluxes is uncertain given the complexity of multiple, overlapping microbial processes in methane cycling. Here, we investigated methane cycling across a salinity gradient in a coastal aquatic system (CAS) by integrating the relative abundances of doubly substituted “clumped” methane isotopologues (¹³CH₃D and ¹²CH₂D₂) with field surveys, bulk isotopes and metagenomic sequencing. We found that methane production involved mixed methanogenic pathways, while spatially variable methane oxidation overprinted these primary signals. Two contrasting clumped isotope patterns were observed: (1) In saline zones, methane has high Δ¹³CH₃D but low Δ¹²CH₂D₂ values, consistent with strong kinetic and/or combinatorial isotope effects. (2) In freshwater zones, clumped isotope signatures shift from depleted toward more enriched value. Yet, despite Δ¹³CH₃D and Δ¹²CH₂D₂ moving partly toward thermodynamic equilibrium, kinetic isotope effects remain expressed. Taken together, the observed clumped isotope patterns reflect a combination of mixing, kinetic effects, and partial isotope exchange. Metagenomic and functional gene data further supported the coexistence of methane production and oxidation potential across the CAS, providing independent biological evidence for the processes inferred from the isotope systematics. We interpret the partial isotope exchange as low reaction reversibility linked to rate-limiting enzyme, methyl coenzyme M reductase (MCR) complex, which catalyzes the last step of methanogenesis and the first step of methanotrophy. Thus, clumped isotope data improve our understanding of methane biogeochemical cycling and hence provide new insights into methane estimation in Earth system models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":327,"journal":{"name":"Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta","volume":"431 ","pages":"Pages 218-233"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Electron-Impact Excitation of N2 Is Insufficient to Produce the NO2 Continuum in STEVE","authors":"Brian J. Harding,&nbsp;L. Claire Gasque","doi":"10.1029/2026JA035379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JA035379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The most studied hypothesis for the continuum emission of Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement (STEVE) is the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>NO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{NO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> continuum. The ion-impact pathway for this emission was recently shown to be too slow by a few orders of magnitude. In this work, we evaluate the electron-impact pathway. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that electronic and/or vibrational excitation of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>N</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${mathrm{N}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> can create a STEVE-like emission spectrum—namely, a small component of OI 630.0-nm red-line and a dominant continuum component. We utilize a newly developed model that couples an electron kinetic calculation with self-consistent and time-dependent <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>N</mi>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${mathrm{N}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> vibrational kinetics and photochemistry. This modeling shows that the electron-impact hypothesis is not viable unless three unlikely conditions are all met: (a) published cross-sections and/or rate coefficients have errors combining to more than an order of magnitude, (b) the electron distribution is narrowly concentrated below the red-line excitation threshold of 2 eV (inconsistent with kinetic calculations using the BOLSIG + Boltzmann equation solver), and (c) the electron density is orders of magnitude higher than expected in the STEVE channel. An extreme neutral temperature enhancement is also necessary (e.g., a factor of three). We suggest that other mechanisms for the STEVE continuum be considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":15894,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics","volume":"131 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026JA035379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regime Shifts During Compound Drought-Heatwave Events Amplify Ecosystem and Heat Stress Risks","authors":"Yi Yang,&nbsp;Jianping Tang","doi":"10.1029/2026GL125653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125653","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound drought-heatwave events (CDHEs) can cause severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. However, their mechanisms are often inferred from seasonal statistics or event-mean composites that obscure within-event process evolution. Here we develop a daily regime-based framework to characterize global summer CDHE lifecycles using reanalysis data from 1961 to 2022. Most events remain within a single thermodynamic regime, whereas a recurrent minority undergoes within-event regime shifts. The two leading transition pathways remain far less frequent than steady pathways, but events following them last longer, are more severe, and have increased significantly over recent decades. Sunny-Humid to Advective transitions are linked to strengthened warm air transport and amplified human heat stress, whereas Sunny-Humid to Sunny-Dry transitions reflect a shift toward moisture-limited conditions and larger declines in ecosystem productivity. Accounting for daily process evolution can therefore improve assessments of compound drought-heatwave risks in a warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL125653","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Micromechanical Insights Into the Cyclic Behavior of Fault-Valve Systems","authors":"Oussama Larkem,&nbsp;Luc Scholtès,&nbsp;Fabrice Golfier","doi":"10.1029/2026GL124845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL124845","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cyclic fluid pressurization can promote repeated fault reactivation and transient permeability changes, a behavior often discussed within the fault-valve concept in which faults alternate between acting as hydraulic barriers and conduits. To investigate the micromechanical processes involved during fluid induced reactivations, we simulate cyclic fluid injection into a pre-sheared granular gouge using a discrete element model. The simulations reproduce key behaviors observed in laboratory and in situ studies and reveal pronounced cycle-to-cycle variability in the onset of reactivation and slip magnitude. Some cycles generate large slip episodes, whereas others produce comparatively small slip under similar loading conditions. Micromechanical analysis of force-chain evolution reveals a strong inverse correlation between slip magnitude and the population of load-bearing chains, with sparser force-chain backbones generating larger slip events. Our results highlight the role of micromechanical processes in controlling macroscopic cyclic fault behavior, offering a physically grounded perspective on fault-valve behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"53 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GL124845","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Machine Learning Framework for Objective Definition and Projection of Meteorological Seasons: An Application to the Indian Subcontinent","authors":"Jacopo Grassi,&nbsp;Elisa Palazzi,&nbsp;Jost von Hardenberg,&nbsp;Paolo Davini","doi":"10.1029/2025JD045869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045869","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Meteorological seasons are typically defined through fixed calendar intervals or region-specific thresholds, yet such approaches fail to capture the actual variability of the annual cycle. Here we present a machine learning framework that objectively detects meteorological seasons and projects their future evolution. The method combines Radially Constrained Clustering (RCC) to identify seasons from reanalysis data with a supervised Multinomial Logistic Regression Classifier (MLRC) that allows these definitions to be applied also to climate model projections. We use the Indian subcontinent as a detailed proof of concept region since it has established operational references for monsoon onset and withdrawal, and it includes contrasting seasonal regimes, from monsoon dominated lowlands to high mountain regions influenced by winter disturbances. The RCC-derived seasons recover the main operational seasonal phases adopted by the India Meteorological Department, while also providing consistent definitions of transition periods. Evaluation against a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble shows that models capture the seasonal cycle with high skill in Central and Southern India, but exhibit lower performance in complex mountainous regions. Future projections indicate a robust lengthening of the monsoon season, primarily due to delayed withdrawal, and a concurrent shortening of winter, driven by the loss of days in December–January. These findings highlight the asymmetric nature of seasonal shifts under global warming and demonstrate the potential of data-driven approaches to provide objective and reproducible definitions of seasonality.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"131 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD045869","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149177545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Illusions of Progress?: Why hyperspectral deep learning needs modern benchmarks","authors":"Gülşen Taşkin, Ronny Hänsch, Muhammad Ahmad, Rocco Restaino, Saurabh Prasad, Gemine Vivone","doi":"10.1109/mgrs.2026.3728162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/mgrs.2026.3728162","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48660,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine","volume":"4 1","pages":"2-30"},"PeriodicalIF":14.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149218499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geochemical data links Late Quaternary-age concretion formation to North Atlantic cold climate episodes","authors":"Angel Mojarro,&nbsp;Adam B. Jost,&nbsp;Benjamin T. Uveges,&nbsp;Kristin D. Bergmann,&nbsp;Tyler Mackey,&nbsp;Diana Dumit,&nbsp;Mark L. Roberts,&nbsp;Jakob Vinther,&nbsp;Kristian Svennevig,&nbsp;Lisbeth L. Pedersen,&nbsp;Lis Allaart,&nbsp;Ole Bennike,&nbsp;Roger E. Summons","doi":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.08.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.08.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Concretions are lithified bodies found in sedimentary rocks often formed as a result of microbial decay of an organic carbon source thereby promoting carbonate authigenesis. Prior studies have demonstrated that this process can enhance the preservation of biological and geochemical signals relative to the unconsolidated host sediment. What remains uncertain is why certain locations or geologic time periods appear to be particularly conducive toward concretion formation. Here we present an integrated radiocarbon, carbonate clumped isotope, and stable carbon isotope analysis of concretions from three Late Quaternary-age deposits across West Greenland and Canada which have encapsulated fish remains. These concretions contain capelin, <em>Mallotus villosus</em>, a small forage fish whose spawning leads to mass mortalities of males. Microbial decay of the resultant carrion generates alkalinity that can stimulate concretion formation. However, despite the periodic nature of the capelin lifecycle, concretion assemblages do not occur after every post-spawning mortality event. Carbon isotope values (–19.8 to –14.0‰) indicate that alkalinity was derived from capelin carrion via bacterial sulfate reduction rather than methanogenesis. Radiocarbon ages of concretion carbonate date the fish-derived carbon and variable contributions of ¹⁴C-depleted (old) carbon from the marine reservoir and therefore provide maximum age constraints on formation timing. After applying appropriate site-specific marine reservoir corrections, ages subsequently converge with independent stratigraphic chronologies at each location. Clumped isotope analysis and reconstructed precipitation temperatures from West Greenland reflect regional oxygen isotope and temperature trends associated with cooling, increasing aridity/evaporation, and glacier stillstands during the 8.2-kyr climate anomaly. Results from Canada reveal a record of glacial freshening and retreat of the Champlain Sea coinciding with a ∼60 m decrease in sea level together with anomalously cool and arid periods. We propose a two-factor model in which cryogenic and/or evaporative concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon during cold-climate intervals, coupled with transient microbial alkalinity pulses from capelin mass mortalities, mediated rapid <em>syn</em>-sedimentary concretion formation. Our work further suggests that geochemical records preserved within carbonate concretions may be utilized to supplement and possibly reconstruct past climate events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":327,"journal":{"name":"Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta","volume":"431 ","pages":"Pages 171-181"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Textures of Chassignite meteorites: Clues to cumulate formation and early deformation processes on Mars","authors":"N. Meunier-Mili,&nbsp;M.-A. Kaczmarek,&nbsp;M. Bystricky","doi":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.08.025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.08.025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Chassignite meteorites are martian achondrites that display a magmatic cumulate texture and are mainly composed of olivine with a small amount of poikilitic pyroxene. This study presents a detailed petrological and microstructural analysis using electron backscatter diffraction of all chassignite meteorites documented up to now, Chassigny, NWA 2737 and NWA 8694, in order to decipher early magmatic, deformation and shock processes. The new results reveal that olivine crystals in chassignite meteorites initially formed through synneusis, a magmatic process where individual crystals accumulate and aggregate together in specific orientations in the earlier stages of consolidation. Many olivine crystals stick together along (100) crystalline faces as evidenced by the significant concentration of misorientation [100] axes at grain boundaries for all three samples. Synneusis was probably interrupted and progressively replaced by crystal settling until complete crystallisation was achieved. Olivine crystallographic preferred orientations indicate slip on [100](010) and olivine subgrain boundaries reveal high densities of geometrically necessary dislocations of the [100](010) type. The [100](010) slip system is active at high temperatures and low stresses in the Earth’s upper mantle and is often observed in plastically deformed peridotites, though it is not necessarily dominant in terrestrial olivine cumulative rocks. Furthermore, pyroxene crystallographic preferred orientations are consistent with those of olivine ([100] olivine axes parallel to pyroxene [001] axes), supporting the hypothesis of minor plastic deformation of olivine and pyroxene at high temperatures and low stresses. These observations are consistent with possible crystallization and emplacement of the chassignite-type magma in the shallow martian crust. Finally the strong shock events recorded by these meteorites are supported by significant internal deformation of olivine grains, concentration of misorientation axes along their [100] axes, and the activation of the [001](010) slip system leading to formation of olivine subgrain boundaries. Altogether these results are good indicators to decipher primary planetary processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":327,"journal":{"name":"Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta","volume":"431 ","pages":"Pages 110-121"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148885181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disrupted magmatic evolution controls Nb and REE co-enrichment in alkaline-carbonatite systems","authors":"Chunwan Wei,&nbsp;Cheng Xu,&nbsp;John Mavrogenes,&nbsp;Jindrich Kynicky,&nbsp;Wenlei Song,&nbsp;Yuhan Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.09.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gca.2026.09.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Alkaline-carbonatite complexes host major Nb and rare earth element (REE) resources, but the two are rarely concentrated in the same lithological unit. Thus, the processes that allow their co-concentration despite their contrasting geochemical behavior remain unclear. Here we investigate the Khotgor complex, Mongolia, where Nb and REE mineralization is concentrated in calcite-rich syenite, whereas associated feldspar-dominated syenites and carbonatites are non-mineralized. Calcite and REE-bearing minerals from the mineralized syenite and carbonatites have uniform ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) (∼0.70373) and εNd_(i) (∼+1.5), indicating a common mantle-sourced magmatic system. Pyrochlore records progressive Nb sequestration during evolution from silicate-dominated magmas to carbonate-rich liquid. Sparse, zoned Ta-Ti-Zr-rich grains associated with phenocrysts were followed by more abundant, unzoned Nb-dominant pyrochlore aggregate intergrowths of calcite and synchysite. Later hydrothermal modification produced Ba-Sr-rich domains while largely retaining Nb. Calcite grains in the mineralized unit record a shift from magmatic crystallization to REE precipitation, as shown by the decrease in La/Yb_CN from ∼19 in phenocryst cores to ∼6 in synchysite-bearing matrix calcite. Strong negative Ce anomalies (Ce*∼0.03) in matrix calcites and complementary positive anomalies (Ce*∼2.5) in phenocryst rims record subsequent oxidation. Low δ¹⁸O values (∼2.74 ‰) of fluid-related patchy apatite record involvement of an isotopically light meteoric fluid, whereas the increase in calcite δ¹⁸O from ∼8 ‰ in phenocryst cores to 10–25 ‰ in rims and matrix reflects calcite-fluid fractionation during cooling. Non-mineralized carbonatites (La/Yb_CN ∼ 0.06) represent carbonate-rich fractions formed after REE sequestration. We infer that magmatic differentiation co-concentrated Nb and REE in a carbonate-rich liquid, in which Nb precipitated as pyrochlore, while meteoric ingress triggered in situ REE precipitation without substantial Nb remobilization, thereby trapping both metals within the same mineralized unit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":327,"journal":{"name":"Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta","volume":"431 ","pages":"Pages 300-315"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148980599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought-driven spatially heterogeneous crop-value decline in the United Kingdom's food valley","authors":"Saul Ngarava,&nbsp;Daniel Magnone","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural drought is an increasingly important risk-management challenge because it threatens crop productivity, farm profitability, and food-system resilience. While drought impacts are widely documented, most assessments focus on average yield losses and provide limited insight into the spatial distribution, variability, and uncertainty of economic impacts, masking local vulnerabilities. The study examined distributional effects, spatial heterogeneity, and spatial dependence of drought effects on crop value in Greater Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, using spatial crop value, drought, and land-grade datasets of seven major crops (60% of the regions total) using Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Results show substantial spatial heterogeneity in crop value, with potato and winter wheat forming a high-value production corridor in the southeast. Land grade emerged as the most consistent predictor of crop value across all models, with one-grade deterioration associated with £185-£719 ha⁻¹ losses. Higher drought levels were associated with lower crop values, differing among crops. Winter wheat and spring barley exhibited the strongest and most persistent associations, while beet and potato displayed convex responses in which damages moderated under extreme drought conditions. GAMLSS confirmed significant heteroskedasticity, GWR revealed substantial spatial non-stationarity, and INLA demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial dependence and uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that average-response assessments can mask critical local vulnerabilities and highlight the value of integrating distributional and spatial modelling approaches to support more effective drought-risk management, climate adaptation and resilience planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 106430"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149155965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}