地球科学最新文献

{"title":"An Interpretable Weather Forecasting Model With Separately-Learned Dynamics and Physics Neural Networks","authors":"Mengxuan Chen,&nbsp;Jinxiao Zhang,&nbsp;Runmin Dong,&nbsp;Yidan Xu,&nbsp;Haoyuan Liang,&nbsp;Juepeng Zheng,&nbsp;Lanning Wang,&nbsp;Haohuan Fu","doi":"10.1029/2024GL114310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114310","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Machine learning (ML) offers a promising alternative for weather forecasting by reducing computational costs and modeling complex non-linear atmospheric processes. While recent foundation models highlight this potential with advanced architectures, interpreting the “black-box” nature of ML models remains challenging. This study proposes an interpretable ML model combining graph neural networks and multi-layer perceptrons (MLP). By using the graph targeted for large-scale movement in the dynamical core, and MLP targeted for small-scale motion in physical parameterizations, our model provides a new perspective to simulate the transition of variables. Through 10-day iterative forecasts, our model shows comparable performance to purely data-driven models when trained at 1.5° resolution, with fewer parameters, and faster training speed than physics-informed neural networks, like those solving differential equations. Moreover, a case study of the 2020 monsoon demonstrates the model's interpretability by exploring the correlations between the attentions in graphs and atmospheric processes such as wind and precipitation.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL114310","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144519813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic Evidence of Impact Breccia and Unlithified Sediments Under Hiawatha Glacier","authors":"Rishi Chandra,&nbsp;Kiya L. Riverman,&nbsp;Daniella N. DellaGiustina,&nbsp;Erin C. Pettit,&nbsp;Nicholas C. Schmerr,&nbsp;Georgia Carroll,&nbsp;Veronica J. Bray,&nbsp;S. Hop Bailey","doi":"10.1029/2024JF008247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008247","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hiawatha Crater in northwest Greenland is one of only two putative impact craters under an ice sheet. Hiawatha therefore offers a rare proxy for understanding the interactions between active glacial dynamics and impact craters on other planetary bodies. Here we characterize Hiawatha's subglacial environment, presenting the results of two active-source seismic experiments and interpreting them in concert with previous radar sounding analysis. Seismic reflectivities at a site with a single basal radar reflector are consistent with a substrate of impact melt-bearing breccia. At a site where radar sounding revealed a porewater reflector 10–15 m below the base of the ice sheet, our seismic results are consistent with a substrate of unlithified sediments. We propose a model where supraglacial water supplies heat for basal melting, leading to rain–out of unconsolidated sediment from debris-rich basal ice (fringe) and permitting a permeable porewater-bearing basal layer to persist without consolidating.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF008247","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144519869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Energy and Clean Air Policies Will Overcome the Adverse Effect of Climate Change and Reduce China's Ozone Pollution in the Future: The Insight From a New Two-Stage Model","authors":"Yutong Wang,&nbsp;Yu Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043182","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Near-surface ozone pollution is one of the biggest challenges for Chinese air quality improvement, whereas its future spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors have not been fully investigated. Here, we developed a two-stage model combining a machine learning technique (XGBoost) and a chemical transport model (WRF-CMAQ) to assess the ozone change till 2060 in China under three scenarios with various trajectories of climate change, energy transition, and pollution controls. The new model effectively corrected overestimation and underestimation of ozone levels by WRF-CMAQ and global climate models, respectively. Anthropogenic efforts will overcome the adverse effect of climate and reduce future ozone concentration especially in eastern China and warm season with greater ozone pollution. From a long-term perspective, energy structure transition was estimated to play a more important role than end-of-pipe emission controls with a former to latter ratio of ozone reduction during 2017–2060 at 2.7. With observational information incorporated, our model was demonstrated to better capture the ozone response to precursor emission change than WRF-CMAQ and corrected the underestimation of ozone reduction for developed urban areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modified physiological equivalent temperature for monitoring heat stress: 20-year data from the Falmouth Road Race.","authors":"Xinrui Zhang, Xiaoqing Ding, Kun Ren, Binghong Gao","doi":"10.1007/s00484-025-02909-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-025-02909-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a commonly used tool for monitoring heat stress in outdoor endurance races. The Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) have been proposed as alternatives to overcome WBGT's limitations, but PET also has shortcomings and needs improvement for effective use as a screening tool. The aim is to identify the best predictor for Exertional Heat Illness (EHI) and Exertional Heat Stroke (EHS) in outdoor races. Based on a 20-year dataset from the Falmouth Road Race, generalized linear regression was used to analyze the relationship between the incident rate and the predictors, and model performance was evaluated by leave-one-out cross-validation. The modified version of PET, mPET, had the highest explanation for EHI rate at 59%, with WBGT at 45.7%. UTCI and PET had the lowest explanatory power, 21% and 17.9% respectively. For EHS, WBGT had the highest explanatory power at 58.1%, and mPET followed with 49.1%. In cross-validation for EHI, the predicted values of mPET strongly correlated with the actual values (cor = 0.767, p < 0.05). In cross-validation for EHS, the predicted values of WBGT significantly correlated with the actual values (cor = 0.604, p < 0.05). Overall, mPET is a superior predictor for EHI rate compared with PET, WBGT and UTCI, but for EHS rate, further research is needed to identify the best predictor.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":" ","pages":"1529-1540"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143787498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dip angle controls on plucking susceptibility and knickpoint evolution in bedrock rivers","authors":"Kristin D. Chilton, Michael Zedan, Kyle Strom, Charles M. Shobe","doi":"10.1130/g53413.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1130/g53413.1","url":null,"abstract":"Bedrock river erosion drives landscape evolution across much of Earth’s surface. Plucking is a key mechanism of fluvial bedrock erosion, yet our understanding of the controls on plucking is limited. Discontinuity orientation (e.g., dip angle) may significantly influence plucking dynamics, but this remains untested. We present the first direct observations of the impact of dip angle on plucking processes and knickpoint morphodynamics. Using flume experiments, we modeled erosion through dipping bedrock using stacked tiles held at three orientations: upstream-dipping, horizontal, and downstream-dipping. We find that horizontal beds are the most erodible, followed by downstream-dipping then upstream-dipping beds. Dip angle also influences knickpoint slope, bed roughness, armoring dynamics, and flow structure, which all interact to govern knickpoint morphological evolution. These observations demonstrate the profound effects of dip angle on the evolution of plucking-dominated bedrock knickpoints, and inform our understanding of landscape evolution within the many discontinuity-defined landscapes at Earth’s surface.","PeriodicalId":12642,"journal":{"name":"Geology","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144532955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Housing segregation in Chinese major cities: A K-nearest neighbor analysis of longitudinal big data","authors":"Sebastian Kohl ,&nbsp;Bo Li ,&nbsp;Can Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2025.102326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2025.102326","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most studies on residential segregation in China have primarily relied on decennial population census data, which lacks the granularity and timeliness needed to capture segregation dynamics with higher frequency. Drawing on georeferenced housing market transaction data between 2012 and 2023 in Shanghai and Beijing, and employing fine-grained spatial segregation analysis techniques, including k-nearest neighbor approaches (<em>k</em>−NN) and modifiable grids, we find that housing segregation by price and size increased between 2012 and 2018, followed by a decline thereafter, particularly in the larger-sized and higher-priced market segments. While segregation levels are generally comparable between the two cities, Shanghai exhibits higher segregation for the top 20 % of apartments, while Beijing shows greater segregation for the bottom 20 %. Segregation is highest for prices, followed by rents, with housing size showing the lowest segregation. Expanding the analysis to 11 major Chinese cities, we suggest that high and rising housing prices are associated with increasing segregation, particularly in cities with lower initial segregation. Methodologically, this paper demonstrates that leveraging big transaction and listing data, alongside utilizing fine-grained spatial analysis, can advance our understanding of urban inequalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48241,"journal":{"name":"Computers Environment and Urban Systems","volume":"121 ","pages":"Article 102326"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144522231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The significant contribution of biomass burning to methanol-soluble nitrogenous organics and its evolution during the highly-humid haze event in urban Wuhan","authors":"Xuehui He, Ping Zeng, Yanping Zhu, Shan Xu, Haoqian Wang, Yibei Wan, Chunyu Xu, Zongyao Lu, Xiaomeng Guo, Ziwei La, Lele Sa, Rujing Yin, Zhaojin An, Yanqun Liu, Huan Yu, Jingkun Jiang, Xiaoxiao Li, Hairong Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01118-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01118-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fine particle (PM_2.5) controls in China have achieved great success these years, but heavy haze pollution still occurs occasionally. The sources and evolution of the complex organic mixtures remain poorly resolved. We collected 46 PM_2.5 samples during a 12-day severe haze episode in Wuhan, a megacity in central China. We analyzed the molecular-level organic composition and functional groups with high-performance liquid chromatography-orbitrap tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-Orbitrap MS/MS). The methanol-soluble nitrogenous organics (ONs) contributed 87.6% and 52.5% of total signal intensity in positive electrospray ionization (ESI + ) mode and negative electrospray ionization (ESI-) mode, respectively. Through source apportionment and backward trajectory analysis, we found great contribution of biomass burning (~21.2% of ONs in ESI+ mode and 78.2% in ESI- mode) and significant aqueous/heterogenous products (~71.2% of ONs in ESI+ mode and 18.7% in ESI- mode) during the prolonged, highly-humid evolution (relative humidity ~86.8% lasting for 7 days). We identified C6–C12 amines and C6-C9 nitrophenols as possible molecular markers for biomass burning emissions, while C17-C19 amine oligomers and dicarboxylic acids as secondary markers from heterogeneous/aqueous reactions. The evolution may include three pathways: (1) polymerization of amines with an oxygenated molecule to form long-chain oxygenated amine oligomers; (2) ring-opening fragmentation of nitrophenols to form dicarboxylic acids; (3) ring-retaining functionalization of nitroaromatics to form nitroaromatic carboxylic acids. Pathway 3 has rarely been observed in ambient air, which is possibly related with the extremely high humidity during the periods and deserves further studies. Lastly, we found that ~39.3% of ON compounds had isomers, and ~43.7% of these isomers had distinct timeseries and originated from different sources, strengthening the necessity of measuring isomers. With the help of tandem high-resolution mass spectrometry, this study provides valuable datasets for the molecular and structural information on sources and evolutions of ONs under the highly-humid urban atmospheres.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The death of neighborhood food outlets: Untangling spatial determinants of food retail environment vulnerability via interpretable machine learning","authors":"Yinxu Liang ,&nbsp;Zhigang Li ,&nbsp;Ke Peng ,&nbsp;Zilin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103700","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103700","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global transformation of the retail environment has led to the widespread closure of small food outlets, threatening urban sustainability and dietary health. While extensive studies have explored the relationship between urban environments and food outlet closures, most of them do not differentiate between the closures of healthy and unhealthy food outlets. To address this gap, this study employs interpretable machine learning methods to examine the heterogeneity and differences in the spatial factors influencing healthy and unhealthy food outlet closures across 4328 neighborhoods in central Hangzhou, China, from 2019 to 2024. The findings reveal the following: (1) the median closure rate of healthy food outlets (47.2 %) was substantially higher than that of unhealthy ones (27.4 %), especially in suburban areas; (2) the impact of spatial variables on food outlet closures varied by neighborhood location; (3) a high supermarket density (&gt;1.5 stores/km²) reduced the closure risk of healthy outlets, while a high density of small retail outlets (&gt;200 stores/km²) mitigated closures of unhealthy outlets; (4) improved connectivity indicators, such as higher bus stop and sidewalk density, better protected healthy than unhealthy outlets. Based on these findings, we provide policy insights to foster a fairer, healthier, and more sustainable urban food retail environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48396,"journal":{"name":"Applied Geography","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103700"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can innovation-driven productivity mitigate infrastructure spatial inequality? Evidence from 282 prefecture-level cities in China","authors":"Wencang Shen,&nbsp;Weilong Kong,&nbsp;Zhengfeng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Spatial inequality in infrastructure remains prominent under China's urban-rural dualism and regional imbalances during high-quality development. This study investigates whether innovation-driven productivity (IDP) - a core socioeconomic driver for shared prosperity - can mitigate infrastructure disparities. Employing TOPSIS modeling, inequality indices, and two-way fixed-effects analyses across 282 Chinese prefecture-level cities, we reveal: (1) National IDP levels show sustained growth, with eastern regions maintaining leadership in both magnitude and growth pace. (2) Infrastructure spatial inequality (ISI) follows an initial increase then decline, featuring pronounced early-stage regional disparities characterized by a “high in the north, low in the south” spatial pattern. (3) IDP development exhibits a significant inverted U-shaped relationship with ISI, initially exacerbating then alleviating disparities. (4) Heterogeneity analysis identifies distinct impact mechanisms across developmental stages and geographic regions. By demonstrating how IDP's effects vary spatiotemporally, this research provides practical guidance for optimizing land and space resource allocation, enhancing spatial fairness and justice, and promoting regional coordinated development. The findings inform targeted policy strategies that harness innovation dynamics to reduce urban-rural divides, support phased infrastructure investments, and ultimately advance shared prosperity through spatially adaptive governance approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48396,"journal":{"name":"Applied Geography","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 103710"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Weakened AMOC Could Cause Southern Ocean Temperature and Sea-Ice Change on Multidecadal Timescales","authors":"Rachel Diamond,&nbsp;Louise C. Sime,&nbsp;David Schroeder,&nbsp;Laura C. Jackson,&nbsp;Paul R. Holland,&nbsp;Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo,&nbsp;Katinka Bellomo,&nbsp;Gokhan Danabasoglu,&nbsp;Aixue Hu,&nbsp;Johann Jungclaus,&nbsp;Marisa Montoya,&nbsp;Virna L. Meccia,&nbsp;Oleg A. Saenko,&nbsp;Didier Swingedouw","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022027","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present the first CMIP6-era multi-model intercomparison of the Southern Ocean (SO) temperature and sea-ice response to substantial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakening. Results are based on analysis of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project, involving eight CMIP6 models under identical North Atlantic freshwater hosing. On multidecadal timescales, we find that southwards ocean heat transport into the SO increases, causing surface warming and sea-ice loss. Additionally, an atmospheric tropical-Antarctic teleconnection, identified here for the first time, causes regional temperature and sea-ice changes in the SO. Unlike previous studies, we find that the Amundsen Sea Low deepens for only some models. Overall, in the multi-model ensemble mean (multi-model range in brackets), over years 50–100 after AMOC weakening: SO surface air temperature warms by 0.3 (0.1–0.7)°C, sea level pressure (SLP) decreases by 30 (10–70) Pa, and sea-ice area decreases by 0.4 (−0.2–1.3) Mkm². The teleconnection leads to regional differences between the response in the Indian sector and the Weddell Sea of 180 (80–320) Pa in SLP, 0.6 (0.5–1.4)°C in surface air temperature, and 0.1 (0.1–0.2) Mkm² in sea-ice area. These SO heat transport, temperature, pressure, and sea-ice changes are small relative to the changes expected under future anthropogenic warming, despite the large and idealized 0.3 Sv hosing used to weaken the AMOC.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC022027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144519942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}