地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming","authors":"Gokul Nair,&nbsp;Hong-Yi Li,&nbsp;Jon Schwenk,&nbsp;Kaitlyn Martinez,&nbsp;Carrie Manore,&nbsp;Chonggang Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024EF005629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005629","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence-based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science-based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF005629","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimized water allocation with managed groundwater recharge and prioritized wetland deliveries to moderate human-nature water use tradeoffs under climate change","authors":"Liying Li ,&nbsp;Mustafa S. Dogan ,&nbsp;Mahesh Maskey ,&nbsp;José M. Rodriguez-Flores ,&nbsp;Kellie B. Vache ,&nbsp;Spencer Cole ,&nbsp;Sarah E. Null ,&nbsp;Joshua H. Viers ,&nbsp;Mohammad Safeeq ,&nbsp;Josue Medellin-Azuara ,&nbsp;Martha Conklin","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>California, United States.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>In California, historical water system channelization disturbed the natural water system, making agricultural and wetland deliveries share the same water supply system. Climate change has intensified the competition between agricultural and environmental water uses. In the face of escalated climate change, this study tackles the critical challenge of optimizing water allocation to balance the needs of agriculture and the environment. A landscape-level, implicit stochastic deterministic linear hydro-economic optimization model is used with limited foresight to evaluate the combined impacts of climate change and water management policies on local water allocation decisions in California. The aim is to provide decision-support information for regional water cost-efficient water reallocation for climate change adaptation.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Climate change has reshaped water allocation ratios and caused agricultural water use to compromise with environmental water use. In water-scarce regions, the reduction of agricultural water use is most prominent in the wet years of the Mediterranean climate when both agricultural and environmental water use demands are high. The research identified when, where, and how much groundwater recharge benefit is acquired from prioritizing wetland deliveries to inform water use co-benefits and moderate conflicts. Climate change has also increased the overall value and variation across areas in the economic value of water, creating momentum for a cost-efficient market-based water reallocation approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102496"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncovering Shallow Crustal Structures of Mars Beneath the InSight Landing Site Using P-Wave Particle Motions","authors":"Xu Wang,&nbsp;Ling Chen,&nbsp;Xin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024JE008927","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JE008927","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Studying the shallow crustal structure of Mars can offer valuable insights into the planet's geological evolution and climate changes. We designed a novel scheme to extract P-wave particle motions from low-frequency seismic events recorded by the InSight mission. By analyzing the frequency dependence of these motions, we inverted for the S-wave velocity structure in the top few kilometers beneath the landing site. Our results reveal a distinct discontinuity at a depth of approximately 0.75 km, with a 68% confidence interval of ±0.25 km, marked by an increase in S-wave velocity from around 1.34 km/s (±0.37 km/s) above to approximately 1.90 km/s (±0.18 km/s) below. The discontinuity is characterized by a sharp transition, around 0.1 km thick, rather than a broad zone. These observed features are robust with minimal influence from data processing and prior assumptions about shallower structures (within the top 0.2 km), and are consistently resolved in both multi-event stacking and single-event inversions. Together with previous observations, our findings suggest that the imaged velocity-increasing discontinuity may signify the top of relatively intact basaltic bedrock (less altered or modified by surface weathering or impact fragmentation), while the overlying structures are interpreted as a combination of Noachian-to early Hesperian-aged sediments with Hesperian and Amazonian basalts.</p>","PeriodicalId":16101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations in Event-Bed Thickness-Frequency Distributions Near Volcanic Islands: Indicators of Varied Geological Processes","authors":"Yu-Chun Chang,&nbsp;José C. F. Kling,&nbsp;Julie C. Schindlbeck-Belo,&nbsp;Neil C. Mitchell,&nbsp;Kan-Hsi Hsiung,&nbsp;Toshiya Kanamatsu","doi":"10.1029/2025GC012185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012185","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A variety of subaerial and submarine events, including mass-wasting and volcanism, can generate sediment gravity flows and fallout deposits that are preserved in deep-water stratigraphic records. This study examines whether event beds with differing depositional and transport histories exhibit distinct thickness-frequency distributions. Analyzing over 4,500 event beds from seven drilling sites near Montserrat, the Izu Arc, the Kyushu-Palau Ridge, and Gran Canaria, the analyses explore variations in event-bed characteristics across different climatic periods, volcanic stages, and geomorphological settings. Statistical methods include characterizing thickness-frequency distributions and assessing subset similarity using <i>t</i>-tests and smoothed distribution patterns. The data-driven results indicate discernible differences where dominant geological processes vary. For example, volcanic growth stages at the Kyushu–Palau Ridge produced thicker, coarser, and more frequent event beds compared with quiescent stages. Similarly, beds from the north slope of Gran Canaria—where submarine canyons enhanced sediment delivery—were nearly twice as thick as those from the south. In contrast, indistinguishable characteristics between the rear and frontal Izu Arc subsets after 3 Ma are attributed to the development of an extensional zone supplying material to both arc sides. Comparable distributions were also observed within intervals with minimal geological differences. The reliability of this analytical approach depends on high-quality sediment recovery, as drilling-related disturbances may obscure primary depositional signals. Beyond stratigraphic characterization, the method shows broader potential for identifying the provenance of volcanic glass shards through geochemical comparisons and for evaluating the statistical compatibility of data sets from neighboring sites, ensuring sufficient sample size for robust integrated analyses.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GC012185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mesoscale Ocean Processes: The Critical Role of Stratification in the Icelandic Region","authors":"Charly de Marez,&nbsp;Clara R. Vives,&nbsp;Esther Portela Rodriguez,&nbsp;Angel Ruiz-Angulo","doi":"10.1029/2025JC022664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022664","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The oceanic region around Iceland, a key component of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, plays a critical role in global climate through its complex system of surface and subsurface currents. Using high-resolution Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite data, in situ observations, and idealized numerical simulations, this study reveals two distinct dynamical regimes in this region. South of Iceland, the mesoscale eddy field is energetic. In contrast, north of Iceland, the strong shallow stratification inhibits baroclinic instability and eddy generation, resulting in a low-energy “eddy desert”—a phenomenon observed synoptically for the first time at SWOT's unprecedented resolution. This new understanding of Iceland's dynamical regimes highlights the role of stratification in mesoscale variability. Analyzing Biogeochemical-Argo float data, it also suggests an impact of mesoscale regimes on the local biogeochemical cycles, with implications for primary production and carbon cycling as stratification patterns shift with climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interdecadal Variation and Its Mechanisms of Summer Low Cloud Cover Over the Tibetan Plateau Lake Group","authors":"Ruibo Wang,&nbsp;Xiangde Xu,&nbsp;Xudong Liang,&nbsp;Wenyue Cai","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042864","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study explores the long-term change and associated mechanisms of low cloud cover (LCC) over the Tibetan Plateau lake group (TPLG). The LCC over the TPLG in the summer of 1979–2020 exhibited a sudden shift of increased interdecadal variation in 1995. The abnormal increases in evaporation and whole-layer specific humidity, and the abnormal convergence of 400 hpa water vapor flux, led to an increase in water vapor over the TPLG, which increased the LCC. The water vapor budget shows that the increase is the most significant along the southern boundary. The cyclonic circulation anomaly in the southwest of the TPLG can transport water vapor to the region. The southerly wind and upward wind anomalies in the south favored water vapor transport through the climbing effect. The water vapor budget at the eastern boundary of the TPLG had the highest correlation coefficient with LCC on the interdecadal scale. The anticyclonic circulation anomaly over Lake Baikal inhibited the outflow of water vapor across the eastern boundary. The anticyclonic circulation was associated with the Rossby wave train. The interdecadal warming of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean-Black Seas played roles in the maintenance of the Rossby waves. The Rossby wave train propagated upward and eastward from the low layer to 200 hpa in the positive anomaly area of the Rossby wave source. The positive anomaly centers of the Rossby wave source were over the North Atlantic, the area around the Black Sea, and the southeastern region of Lake Baikal.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current and Projected Changes in Lake Ice Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau: Impacts of Climate Change and Lake Expansion","authors":"Yu Cai,&nbsp;Yao Xiao,&nbsp;Xiaoyi Shen,&nbsp;Haili Li,&nbsp;Zifei Wang,&nbsp;Jingjing Wang,&nbsp;Chang-Qing Ke","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043623","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a warmer and wetter climate. As a robust climate indicator, lake ice phenology responds sensitively to these changes. Beyond climate conditions, lake ice is also influenced by lake properties, which have also been changing rapidly. However, their impact on lake ice has been understudied due to limited data. Therefore, we used Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 brightness temperature data and daily air temperature data to obtain the ice phenology for 182 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau from September 2012 to August 2022. Using this new data set, we examined the impacts of climate change and lake expansion on lake ice dynamics and their future changes. Our findings indicated that lake ice phenology on the Tibetan Plateau was strongly influenced by multiple factors. Freeze-up dates were primarily affected by lake properties such as latitude, volume, and area, whereas break-up dates were dominated by air temperature. Using random forest regression, we projected future declines in lake ice under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. Additionally, lake expansion could further delay freeze-up dates. By the end of this century, freeze-up dates are expected to be delayed by 3–11 days, while break-up dates could advance by 2–20 days, depending on the climate scenario. These findings highlight the urgent need to mitigate climate change to reduce lake ice loss on the Tibetan Plateau.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inference of hydrological modelling and field-based monitoring on dynamics of heavy metals in water of Hindon Basin","authors":"Prabhat Dwivedi,&nbsp;Brijesh Kumar Yadav","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Hindon basin, crucial for agriculture, faces pollution from industry and farming, affecting the water quality and ecosystems.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This research unravels heavy metal dynamics in uncertain pathways, varying hydrological conditions, and data-restricted basins by integrating a hydrological model with heavy metal mass budgeting. Initially, spatiotemporal meteorological data and landscape properties were utilized to develop a monthly-scale hydrological model for 12 years (2010–2022). Subsequently, heavy metal concentrations were measured in 2023 from rivers, canals, and wastewater drains across the basin. The river flows predicted by the hydrological model were then used to estimate seasonal heavy metal loads based on observed concentrations.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights</h3><div>The hydrological activity in the region displayed drier conditions from 2010 to 2023, with declining post-monsoon water balance components in the lower and middle regions. However, in 2023, enhanced monsoon rainfall reversed this trend, improving surface water availability, increasing flow rates, and altering heavy metal dynamics during the post-monsoon season. This shift underscores the role of hydrological uncertainty in heavy metal loads across all surface water bodies. River water contributed the largest share of heavy metal loads (52 %) in both seasons, followed by wastewater (26 %) and canal water (22 %). These findings emphasize the influence of changing hydrological conditions on heavy metal contributions from surface water sources, reducing reliance on direct flow measurements in challenging field environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102488"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is our pick? Assessment of satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets over Italy","authors":"Benedetta Moccia ,&nbsp;Luca Buonora ,&nbsp;Claudia Bertini ,&nbsp;Elena Ridolfi ,&nbsp;Fabio Russo ,&nbsp;Francesco Napolitano","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102487","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>Italy.</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>Gridded precipitation datasets, satellite and reanalysis based, offer the potential to provide precipitation estimates with quasi-global coverage, extending to areas not accessible by ground-based instruments. Even though their quality has improved over time, their performances vary across the globe, since their accuracy is related to the orography and climate of the area under analysis. This variability together with the increasing availability of freely accessible gridded datasets often lead scholars and hydrologists to assess the suitability of precipitation products for specific analyses. In this paper, we address this issue by evaluating the performance of six widely used gridded precipitation products (CERRA-Land, ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, CMORPH, IMERG, PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) over Italy. We benchmark them against the national rain gauge network dataset (SCIA) by computing continuous and categorical performance metrics across different temporal scales (daily, monthly, yearly). Our findings are presented at various spatial scales <span><math><mo>−</mo></math></span> from watershed to Köppen-Geiger climate zones <span><math><mo>−</mo></math></span> to support future hydrological studies with diverse objectives.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological insights for the Region</h3><div>The two reanalysis datasets (i.e., ERA5-Land and CERRA-Land) are the best performing across Italy, closely followed by IMERG satellite-based product. CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS-CDR resulted the least performing. Although all the gridded datasets considered showed to have difficulties in detecting precipitation over mountainous areas, they proved to be a valuable alternative to conventional rain gauge networks, especially at longer temporal scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102487"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effect on Outgoing Longwave Radiation: The Role of Large-Scale Convective Aggregation","authors":"Heng Quan,&nbsp;Bosong Zhang,&nbsp;Chenggong Wang,&nbsp;Stephan Fueglistaler","doi":"10.1029/2024GL112756","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GL112756","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observations and climate models show a strong increase/decrease of tropical low clouds, and hence reflected solar radiation, in response to an increase/decrease of the west-east sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Pacific due to its impact on boundary layer inversion strength. Here, we discuss an accompanied increase/decrease of outgoing longwave radiation due to the contraction/expansion of the tropical deep convection area (decreasing/increasing the high cloud amount and relative humidity) when the SST gradient between regions with high and low SST increases/decreases. In targeted amip-piForcing style GFDL-AM4 model simulations, the negative longwave radiation response due to large-scale convective aggregation resulting from the La-Nina-like warming pattern over the period 1980–2010 is comparable to the negative shortwave cloud feedback. CMIP6 models show that the multi-model-mean is similar to that in our simulations. However, the relative magnitude of shortwave and longwave effects differs substantially between models, revealing an underappreciated climate model uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL112756","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144202392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}