地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Seismoelectric Conversion at Poroelastic/Elastic Interfaces and the Role of Dielectric Permittivity: Experimental and Numerical Analysis","authors":"Natael Bernardo, Victor Martins-Gomes, Clarisse Bordes, Daniel Brito","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112994","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112994","url":null,"abstract":"Seismoelectric phenomena, caused by electrokinetic coupling between seismic and electromagnetic fields, have attracted significant interest in geological reservoir characterization for their sensitivity to pore-fluid contrasts. Consequently, most studies have focused on seismic-to-electromagnetic conversions at fluid/poroelastic and poroelastic/poroelastic interfaces. However, when investigating permeable zones in unfractured media, often associated with geothermal reservoirs, poroelastic/elastic interfaces must be considered. To address this, we conducted laboratory and numerical experiments using a container filled with quartz sand saturated with a NaCl solution, with one of five thin layers made of different materials (four elastic and one poroelastic) embedded within the sand. Our numerical simulations assume an elastic medium as poroelastic using limiting values for certain physical parameters. The results confirm that seismoelectric conversion occurs at poroelastic/elastic transitions, showing a strong agreement between experiments and simulations. Furthermore, we inferred that the amplitudes of electromagnetic waves generated at poroelastic/elastic interfaces are mainly controlled by contrasts of dielectric permittivity.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"261 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Retrieval of Cloud Macro-Physical Properties Using theFY-4A Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) and the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS)","authors":"Bin Guo, Feng Zhang, Zhijun Zhao, Jinyu Guo, Wenwen Li","doi":"10.1029/2024gl109772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109772","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a novel approach for conducting all-day retrieval of cloud macro-physical properties (single-layer cloud phase, cloud top height, and cloud base height for optical thickness less than 10) using the Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) and the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) onboard the geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-4A based on machine learning methods. Model accuracy was compared after integrating ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA-5) data, atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, and GIIRS clear-column radiance. Results demonstrate that integrating GIIRS clear-column radiances can enhance the precision of cloud phase classification and the retrieval of cloud macro-physical properties. This effectively replaces the role of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, which are typically required for thermal infrared remote sensing retrieval. Moreover, the issue of delayed acquisition of ERA-5 atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles is mitigated, enabling near real-time and all-day retrieval of cloud macro-physical properties.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"147 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Causal Loop Diagrams for bridging the gap between Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus thinking and Nexus doing: Evidence from two case studies","authors":"Raffaele Giordano, Anna Osann, Esteban Henao, Maria Llanos López, José González Piqueras, Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis, Maria Lilli, Virginia Rosa Coletta, Alessandro Pagano","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132571","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of Nexus management is gaining increasing attention in the scientific community as it emphasizes the mutual interdependencies among different sectors (typically Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystems − WEFE), overcoming the ‘silo’ approach that usually characterizes the management of natural resources along with a rather water-centered perspective. Supporting a comprehensive understanding of the cross-sectoral interdependencies and influences among sectors is a cutting-edge research issue, specifically as far as the production of ‘actionable’ knowledge for policy makers is concerned. Despite its success, the actual implementation of the Nexus holistic approach is still hampered by several barriers. Starting from the analysis of those barriers, this work describes a methodological approach based on Qualitative System Dynamic Model (and specifically Causal Loop Diagram – CLD), capable of enabling the transition from Nexus thinking to Nexus doing. The methodological approach maps and describes the dynamic evolution of complex WEFE Nexus systems, and proposes an innovative ‘leverage analysis’ – based on graph theory measures – for identifying policy interventions capable of impacting system state and potential evolution. The proposed approach is highly participatory as stakeholders engagement is facilitated throughout the modelling process. Besides a description of the methodology, the present work provides also full details on the results of its implementation in two different case studies in Europe.","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142874082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distribution of Interseismic Coupling Along the Maidan Fault in Tianshan Before the 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi Earthquake","authors":"Xiaohang Wang, Caijun Xu, Yangmao Wen, Xiong Zhao, Shuai Wang, Guangyu Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111472","url":null,"abstract":"Despite historically low seismic activity on the Maidan Fault (MDF), the sudden Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake in early 2024 underscores the urgent need to assess the seismic risk on this fault. This study utilizes Global Navigation Satellite System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling before the Wushi event along the MDF. The four asperities we identified indicate a high seismic risk for the MDF, with potential magnitudes of Mw 7.5–7.6, Mw 7.5–7.7, Mw 7.0–7.2, and Mw 6.8–7.0. Specifically, the Maierkaiqi segment has already accumulated seismic moment comparable to previous event. Furthermore, our comparison of the interseismic coupling model with the coseismic rupture of the Wushi earthquake reveals that the shallow compliant zone, creeping patches, and irregular fault geometry collectively constrained the rupture propagation. The consistency between the rupture and high coupling area also suggests that the obtained coupling distribution may represent potential earthquake-prone zones along the MDF.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-induced divergence of song","authors":"Amanda R. Ridley, Grace Blackburn","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02222-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02222-9","url":null,"abstract":"Vocal communication is essential for information transmission in many species, such as that related to mating opportunities or predator presence. Recent research revealing how phenotypic changes brought about by a changing climate may influence vocal communication raises some serious concerns for conservation management.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trace Element Emissions Vary With Lava Flow Age and Thermal Evolution During the Fagradalsfjall 2021–2023 Eruptions, Iceland","authors":"L. Wainman,&nbsp;E. Ilyinskaya,&nbsp;M. Pfeffer,&nbsp;C. Mandon,&nbsp;E. Bali,&nbsp;B. A. Edwards,&nbsp;B. I. Kleine-Marshall,&nbsp;S. R. Gudjonsdottir,&nbsp;A. Cotterill,&nbsp;S. W. Scott,&nbsp;P. Wieser,&nbsp;A. Stefánsson,&nbsp;E. J. Nicholson,&nbsp;J. Sepulveda-Araya,&nbsp;S. J. Hammond,&nbsp;B. E. Kunz,&nbsp;F. Jenner,&nbsp;J. R. Gunnarsson,&nbsp;A. Aiuppa,&nbsp;M. Burton,&nbsp;T. A. Mather","doi":"10.1029/2024GC011822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GC011822","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Basaltic fissure eruptions emit volatile and environmentally reactive gases and particulate matter (PM) into the lower troposphere (e.g., SO₂, HCl, and HF in the gas phase; Se, As, Pb as complexes in the PM phase). Lava flows from fissure eruptions can be spatially extensive, but the composition and fluxes of their emissions are poorly characterized compared to those from main vent(s). Using uncrewed aircraft systems-mounted (drone) samplers and ground-based remote Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, we investigated the down-flow compositional evolution of emissions from active lava flows during the Fagradalsfjall 2021–2023 eruptions. The calculated fluxes of volatile trace metals from lava flows are considerable relative to both main vent degassing and anthropogenic fluxes in Iceland. We demonstrate a fractionation in major gas emissions with decreasing S/halogen ratio down-flow. This S-Cl fractionation is reflected in the trace element degassing profile, where the abundance of predominantly sulfur-complexing elements (e.g., Se, Te, As, Pb) decreases more rapidly in down-flow emissions relative to elements complexing as chlorides (e.g., Cu, Rb, Cs), oxides (e.g., La, Ce) and hydroxides (e.g., Fe, Mg, Al, Ti). Using thermochemical modeling, we explain this relationship through temperature and composition dependent element speciation as the lava flow ages and cools. As a result, some chloride-complexing elements (such as Cu) become relatively more abundant in emissions further down-flow, compared to emissions from the main vent or more proximal lava flows. This variability in down-flow element fluxes suggests that the output of metals to the environment may change depending on lava flow age and thermal evolution.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"25 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GC011822","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental Investigation on the Brittle-Ductile Transition of Natural Mafic Granulite","authors":"Jiaxiang Dang,&nbsp;Yongsheng Zhou,&nbsp;David P. Dobson,&nbsp;Thomas M. Mitchell","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030065","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024JB030065","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Semi-brittle and plastic deformation behaviors of mafic granulite are significant for evaluating characteristics of ductile zones in the lower crust region and the rheological strength of the lower crust. Axial compression experiments were carried out in this study with natural mafic granulite collected from the North China Craton, using a gas medium apparatus at 950–1,150°C and 300 MPa with strain up to 17%. The samples are composed of 57 vol.% Plagioclase, 19 vol.% Clinopyroxene, 20 vol.% Orthopyroxene, and 4 vol.% magnetite and ilmentite. The mean grain size is 300–700 μm. The bulk structural water content is 891 ± 399 wt ppm. At 950–1,000°C, the samples were brittly broken by scattered cracks and localized fault zones. At 1,050–1,075°C, the samples were deformed by ductile shear zones that broadened with increasing temperature, the deformation behavior is characterized by a steady-state semi-brittle creep; mechanic data yield a flow law of &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;ε&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;˙&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;6.0&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.3&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;MPa&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;5.8&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;s&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;σ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;5.8&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.1&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;exp&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mfenced&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mfrac&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;651&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;68&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;kJ&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;/&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mtext&gt;mol&lt;/mtext&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;R&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;T&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mfrac&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mfenced&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $dot{varepsilon ","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"129 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142857727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Suspended Sediment Transport and Storage in Arctic Deltas","authors":"C. Hines,&nbsp;A. Piliouras","doi":"10.1029/2024JF007802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007802","url":null,"abstract":"<p>River fluxes to the Arctic Ocean impact sea ice extent, nutrient availability, and coastal ecosystems. Arctic river deltas modulate fluxes of water, sediment, and nutrients reaching the Arctic Ocean. Many large rivers have estimates or measurements of discharge and sediment concentration upstream of the delta apex, but the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of sediment fluxes to the Arctic coast are unknown. We developed a novel reduced-complexity model of suspended sediment transport in Arctic deltas to address this knowledge gap. The model estimates suspended sediment delivery to the coast based on a computed channel network and sediment transport rules. We applied this model to six high-latitude deltas during their open water seasons with different boundary conditions to account for their differences in morphology, seasonality, and hydrology. Flux distributions at the coast are found to be more uneven in larger deltas due to uneven channel spacing and larger variability in channel widths compared with smaller deltas. Given typical active season conditions, the deltas exhibit periods of deposition and erosion but are net depositional overall. Net sediment trapping during the active season ranges from 10% to 70%. Our results suggest that larger, more complex deltas with higher sediment supply and less flashy hydrographs store the most sediment and may therefore be more resilient to land loss. The sediment flux distribution can be used in future studies of coastal biogeochemistry and geomorphology and in regional models to capture the impacts of fluxes on turbidity, marine primary productivity, and Arctic warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"129 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JF007802","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Episodic Seafloor Hydrothermal Alteration as a Source of Stable Remagnetizations in Archean Volcanic Rocks","authors":"A. R. Brenner,&nbsp;R. R. Fu,&nbsp;A. J. Brown,&nbsp;E. B. Hodgin,&nbsp;D. T. Flannery,&nbsp;Mark D. Schmitz","doi":"10.1029/2024GC011799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GC011799","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Interpreting the paleomagnetic records of altered rocks, especially those from Earth's earliest history, is complicated by metamorphic overprints and recrystallization of ferromagnetic minerals. However, these records may be as valuable as a primary signal if the timing and mechanism of alteration-related remagnetizations can be ascertained. We illustrate the success of this approach in the case of seafloor hydrothermal alteration by integrating simple rock magnetic and magnetic microscopy data with petrography, hyperspectral imagery, aeromagnetic surveys, field mapping, and geochronology of Paleoarchean basalts from North Pole Dome located in the East Pilbara Craton, Western Australia. We identify 12 hydrothermal episodes during the deposition of the stratigraphy between ∼3490 and 3350 Ma. These episodes produced stratabound zones of hydrothermal alteration with predictable facies successions of mineral assemblages reflecting sub-seafloor gradients in fluid temperature, pH, composition, and water/rock ratios. Rock magnetic data and magnetic microscopy pinpoint the secondary ferromagnetic minerals within each alteration assemblage, revealing a specific single-domain magnetite population within leucoxenes (titanite and anatase after primary titanomagnetites) that always accompanies low-water/rock alteration in fluids buffered to pH equilibrium with the host basalts. Highly uniform magnetic properties indicate that once formed, these magnetites remain unchanged upon further exposure to rock buffered fluids, stabilizing them against later alteration events and making them durable paleofield recorders. The altered basalts hosting this magnetite have unique and consistent appearances, mineralogy, IR absorption features, aeromagnetic signatures, and magnetic properties across all hydrothermal systems studied here, highlighting how integrating these data sets can identify and interpret this alteration style in future paleomagnetic investigations.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"25 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GC011799","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142868933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vegetation Greening Mitigates the Impacts of Increasing Extreme Rainfall on Runoff Events","authors":"Darren L. Ficklin,&nbsp;Danielle Touma,&nbsp;Benjamin I. Cook,&nbsp;Scott M. Robeson,&nbsp;Taehee Hwang,&nbsp;Jacob Scheff,&nbsp;A. Park Williams,&nbsp;Harper Watson,&nbsp;Ben Livneh,&nbsp;Mari R. Tye,&nbsp;Lixin Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004661","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Future flood risk assessment has primarily focused on heavy rainfall as the main driver, with the assumption that projected increases in extreme rain events will lead to subsequent flooding. However, the presence of and changes in vegetation have long been known to influence the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Here, we extract historical (1850–1880) and projected (2070–2100) daily extreme rainfall events, the corresponding runoff, and antecedent conditions simulated in a prominent large Earth system model ensemble to examine the shifting extreme rainfall and runoff relationship. Even with widespread projected increases in the magnitude (78% of the land surface) and number (72%) of extreme rainfall events, we find projected declines in event-based runoff ratio (runoff/rainfall) for a majority (57%) of the Earth surface. Runoff ratio declines are linked with decreases in antecedent soil water driven by greater transpiration and canopy evaporation (both linked to vegetation greening) compared to areas with runoff ratio increases. Using a machine learning regression tree approach, we find that changes in canopy evaporation is the most important variable related to changes in antecedent soil water content in areas of decreased runoff ratios (with minimal changes in antecedent rainfall) while antecedent ground evaporation is the most important variable in areas of increased runoff ratios. Our results suggest that simulated interactions between vegetation greening, increasing evaporative demand, and antecedent soil drying are projected to diminish runoff associated with extreme rainfall events, with important implications for society.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"12 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004661","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}