地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Meeting climate target with realistic demand-side policies in the residential sector","authors":"Lucas Vivier, Alessio Mastrucci, Bas van Ruijven","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02348-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02348-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The European Union (EU) has established an ambitious policy framework for demand-side mitigation in buildings towards net-zero targets. Here, we conduct a comprehensive quantitative assessment of 384 demand-side policy combinations for residential space heating that complement supply-side decarbonization efforts. We show that implementing the EU Emissions Trading System 2, even when combined with energy supply decarbonization, falls short of climate targets. Beyond the EU Emissions Trading System 2, we emphasize the need for ambitious heat-pump subsidies as a critical component of a successful strategy. Conversely, a large-scale generic ‘Renovation Wave’ contributes modestly to decarbonization, is not a cost-effective strategy at the EU level and requires significant public spending increases. We advocate for the implementation of a carbon tax, paired with substantial heat-pump subsidies and targeted incentives for home insulation by country and building. This approach supports the decarbonization of the residential sector, limits the strain on the electricity grid and alleviates energy poverty.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pleistocene sea-level and environmental changes during glacial-interglacial cycles recorded in beach ridges of the Thai-Malay Peninsula","authors":"Smith Leknettip ,&nbsp;Sakonvan Chawchai ,&nbsp;Alexander Fülling ,&nbsp;Frank Preusser","doi":"10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Beach ridges are relict coastal landforms with subsurface deposits that can be used to reconstruct past sea-level and environmental changes. Nonetheless, beach ridges, especially those formed during the Pleistocene, can be easily modified by post-depositional processes triggered by various climatic events during glacial-interglacial cycles. Therefore, detailed investigations are necessary to utilize beach ridges as records of past sea level and environmental conditions. This study employs a multidisciplinary approach, including ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys, sedimentological analysis, and luminescence dating, to determine the evolution of beach ridges in the Thai-Malay Peninsula. Based on GPR and sedimentological data, evidence of beach progradation is identified, indicating that the deposition of coarse-grained beach ridges occurred on the beach face where sediments accumulated in a high-energy depositional environment. These beach face deposits are subsequently covered by thick layers of aeolian deposits that were likely reworked at the surface of the beach ridges. Luminescence dating reveals that the deposition of the oldest beach ridges occurred prior to 190 ka, during the interglacial period of the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7. Subsequently, the beach ridges were modified by aeolian reworking episodically until the end of the Pleistocene during times when the sea level was low, resulting in a vertical build-up. The presence of aeolian deposits supports the concept of climate aridification and reduced vegetation cover in Sundaland during that time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20926,"journal":{"name":"Quaternary Science Reviews","volume":"364 ","pages":"Article 109464"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144223332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations","authors":"Ga-Yeong Seo, Seung-Ki Min, Donghyun Lee, Seok-Woo Son, Chanil Park, Dong-Hyun Cha","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the summertime hourly extreme rainfall event (HER) over South Korea. The UKESM-forced regional climate model is utilized to simulate HER over South Korea in the historical (2001–2005) and future periods (2091–2095) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at a convection-permitting resolution (2.5 km). A significant increase in future HER intensity and frequency appears in July, with the frequency increases about two times for SSP1-2.6 and about 3.7 times for SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The month of maximum HER frequency is also projected to shift from August to July. When clustering the HERs into six representative weather patterns, SSP5-8.5 scenarios show a predominant increase in weather patterns characterized by a frontal boundary between low and high pressure in July. Our results suggest that the future sub-seasonal evolution of HER over South Korea may change with the intensification of subtropical high and the deepening of mid-level trough according to different future scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distribution and constructed morphology of artificial foredune notches","authors":"Thomas Pagon,&nbsp;Thomas Smyth,&nbsp;Ryan Wilson,&nbsp;Bethany Fox","doi":"10.1002/esp.70094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70094","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Foredune notches are a contemporary management intervention on coastal sand dunes, which aim to create and enhance bare sand and transitional habitats and/or increase resilience to climate change. These features consist of an excavated depression within the coastal foredune, designed to facilitate aeolian sediment transport from the beach into the inter- and back dune areas. Despite their increasing use by site managers and conservation organisations, foredune notches are under-researched, with existing analysis being almost entirely site-specific and descriptive. In this study, we present the first comprehensive, global study of these features; 133 notches were identified across the Netherlands, United Kingdom, France and New Zealand using peer-reviewed and grey literature. These notches were then verified using aerial imagery. The dimensions of 132 notches were measured using aerial imagery captured shortly after construction to understand the constructed morphology of these anthropogenic landforms. The results show that there is significant variability in constructed morphology both within and between sites. At a national scale, notches in France (average length 14.48 m, width 7.62 m, slot width 8.39 m) and New Zealand (average length 14.58 m, width 8.47 m, slot width 5.49 m) were characteristically smaller than those in the United Kingdom (average length 113.83, width 51.11 m, slot width 22.67 m) and the Netherlands (average length 109.81 m, width 81.02 m, slot width 24.67 m). There was also a large degree of variation in the relationship between landform length, landform width and ‘slot’ width, further demonstrating the diversity of current notch design. These results demonstrate that the current practice of referring to all these excavated landforms as ‘notches’ without further qualification is ineffective in communicating the diversity of size and shape of constructed foredune notches. Here, we propose a systematic classification scheme that standardises notch morphology, improving comparability across studies and enabling future research to better assess and communicate the influences of differing constructed morphology on aeolian, sediment and vegetation processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70094","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased water availability and high flows in an ungauged Kenyan catchment: A comprehensive SWAT+ model evaluation for climate change assessment","authors":"Pablo Sarmiento,&nbsp;Jingshui Huang,&nbsp;Timo Schaffhauser,&nbsp;Markus Disse","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Sand River Basin, Kenya</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing climate change impacts in ungauged basins. A systematic approach was applied to evaluate model performance and conduct a robust analysis of hydrological responses to climate change. Five remote sensing evapotranspiration products were evaluated, with the best-performing product selected for further analysis, including climate period robustness and cross-validation with soil moisture. Climate scenarios were constructed based on three pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5) for near (2025–2054) and far future (2070–2099) periods, using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the ISIMIP3b dataset linked to CMIP6.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Results show projected increases in temperature and precipitation across all climate scenarios, becoming more pronounced in the far future under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5, where early rains are expected in both rainy seasons. The hydrological responses indicate increases in water availability, with strong rises in high flows. These projections are most significant during the far future where the annual average water yield is expected to increase to 179.2 mm (+154.9 %) under SSP3–7.0 and to 185 mm (+163.1 %) under SSP5–8.5. These results highlight the potential implications of climate change on the hydrological components of the basin, providing valuable insights for mitigation and adaptation strategies in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102497"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association Between Upstream Conditions and the Intensity of Orographic Precipitation in the Main Mountain Ranges of South Korea","authors":"Chia-Lun Tsai,&nbsp;Kwonil Kim,&nbsp;Heechul Park,&nbsp;Hongmok Park,&nbsp;Wonbae Bang,&nbsp;GyuWon Lee","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003989","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003989","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study uses high temporospatial surface precipitation rate obtained from radar observations (hybrid surface rainfall, HSR), 3D winds retrieved from the Wind Synthesis System using Doppler Measurements (WISSDOM), and 3D thermodynamic fields to investigate the association between orographic precipitation and upstream conditions for the main mountain ranges of South Korea during the 2018–2020. The main objective was to determine the dominate meteorological factors affecting the rain intensity over this terrain. Three rainfall cases were analyzed covering western, and eastern slopes of the Taebaek mountain range (TMR), Mt. Jiri, and Busan City. Correlation coefficients (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>R</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $R$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) were used to evaluate the strength of the relationship between rain intensity and meteorological factors in these regions, including the wind directions, wind speed, Froude number, saturated Froude number, water vapor, moist flux, stability, vertical velocity, and convergence. The results revealed that the wind direction determined the location of precipitation in the mountains, with the wind speed and moist flux identified as the most influential factors for rain intensity, with high correlation coefficients of 0.55–0.85. The upstream Froude number appeared to modulate the orographic enhancement on rain intensity over Mt. Jiri and the western slopes of the TMR. Low-level convergence was another critical factor affecting the rain intensity along the northeastern coast of South Korea (i.e., the eastern slopes of the TMR) and Busan (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>R</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $R$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> of ∼0.6–0.7). Statistical analysis of all orographic precipitation cases (52 cases over the 3 years) revealed that the upstream wind speed, and moist flux in the mid-layers had a higher correlation with rain intensity over the western slopes of the TMR and Mt. Jiri. The relationship between rain intensity and both water vapor and low-level convergence was also stronger along the northeastern coast of South Korea.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003989","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144213751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mesopause Insights: Unraveling Temperature and Height Trends Through SABER/TIMED and SD WACCM X Simulations","authors":"M. Pramitha,&nbsp;M. Praveen,&nbsp;M. Venkat Ratnam","doi":"10.1029/2024JA033457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JA033457","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As human activities and climate change continue to affect the middle atmosphere, understanding long-term changes in atmospheric parameters has become critical. This study uses the data from the SABER/TIMED satellite to analyze global variations in mesopause temperature and height, and evaluates the performance of the Specified dynamics–Whole atmosphere community climate model extended (SD-WACCM X) in reproducing these variations. A bias correction using the cumulative distribution function Quantile mapping was applied to SD WACCM X data based on SABER observations. The correction reveals a positive bias of up to 9.2 K at specific altitudes in the Southern (94–102 km) and Northern (70–75 km) Polar regions, and up to 4.6 K in low-latitude areas (above 94 km) during January. Mesopause temperature exhibits a two-level structure, with an upper mesopause around 100 km and a lower one near 86 km, varying with latitude from 120 to 200 K. SD WACCM X generally underestimates mesopause height by 2%–17% in mid-latitude and polar summer regions. Long-term trends in mesopause height and temperature were also examined, factoring in solar cycles, and the quasi-biennial oscillations, with SABER data showing a negative temperature trend of −0.33 to −2.2 K per decade.</p>","PeriodicalId":15894,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Earth’s exhale","authors":"Daniele L. Pinti","doi":"10.1038/s41561-025-01710-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01710-7","url":null,"abstract":"Earth has been degassing volatiles since its accretion. Insights from the noble gases helium and argon in groundwater suggest an underappreciated role for degassing from the subcontinental mantle lithosphere below the continental roots.","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":18.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European Union needs large heat pump and targeted renovation subsidies to meet heating targets","authors":"Lucas Vivier, Alessio Mastrucci, Bas van Ruijven","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02342-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02342-w","url":null,"abstract":"Current European Union policies are insufficient to achieve residential heating decarbonization targets. Substantial subsidies for heat pumps and carefully targeted incentives for home renovation are critical to efficiently and affordably meet climate goals. We emphasize the importance of adapting strategies to national contexts.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Groundwater Flows Using Geophysics and Tracer Tests in a Karst Area of Minas Gerais, Brazil","authors":"Débora Maria Diniz Barbosa,&nbsp;Rodrigo Sérgio de Paula,&nbsp;Jorge Roncato,&nbsp;Paulo Roberto Antunes Aranha,&nbsp;Pedro Henrique da Silva Assunção,&nbsp;Peter Marshall Fleming,&nbsp;Leila Nunes Menegasse Velásquez","doi":"10.1002/hyp.70143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70143","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The mapping of hydrogeological continuities in heterogeneous aquifer systems presents significant challenges in understanding and managing groundwater resources. The studied area is part of the central portion of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, and covers the northern portion of the Lagoa Santa Karst Environmental Protection Area (EPA) and surroundings, a region that holds important archaeological and paleontological sites, as well as karst-fissural aquifers responsible for a large part of the urban and industrial supply of the area. In order to analyse the main underground flows and prove the hydrogeological connectivity between the Lagoa Santa Karst EPA and adjacent areas to the west, electroresistivity tests and application of a dye tracer were conducted around important karst springs in the region. The electroresistivity profiles indicate W-E direction flows, consistent with the regional flow, as well as contributions from S to N and NW to SE flows. The dye tracer test proved the underground connection of a sinkhole located to the west of the EPA with aquifers inserted in this conservation unit. Hydrogeological sections also indicate the continuity of the karst-fissural aquifers from west to east, towards the Velhas river. In addition, the probable areas of contribution of karst springs located near the western edge of the Lagoa Santa Karst EPA indicate that the current conservation unit does not cover a significant portion of the recharge areas of the local hydrogeological system. Therefore, it was proposed to either expand the Lagoa Santa Karst EPA or create a new environmental conservation unit in the area.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13189,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Processes","volume":"39 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}