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Amplified impacts of multi-year La Niñas on soil moisture compared to single-year La Niñas 与单年La Niñas相比,多年La Niñas对土壤水分的影响放大
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01175-w
Tingting Zhu, Jin-Yi Yu, Min-Hui Lo
{"title":"Amplified impacts of multi-year La Niñas on soil moisture compared to single-year La Niñas","authors":"Tingting Zhu, Jin-Yi Yu, Min-Hui Lo","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01175-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01175-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines December-January-February (DJF) soil moisture responses to multi-year (MY) and single-year (SY) La Niñas using a 2200-year CESM1 simulation, AGCM experiments, and observational data. Four regions where MY La Niñas amplify SY La Niñas’ impacts on soil moisture were identified: North America, Australia, the Middle East, and the Sahel. SY La Niñas typically cause soil moisture drying in the Middle East and North America and wetting in Australia and the Sahel. MY La Niñas enhance these effects in the second DJF due to the strengthening of precipitation anomalies or the accumulation of precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies, except in the Sahel where wetting is driven in part by evapotranspiration anomalies. Soil moisture variations are linked to La Niña-induced sea surface temperature changes in the Indian Ocean (for Australia and the Middle East) and the Pacific Ocean (for North America). These amplified effects are largely supported by the observed MY La Niña events from 1948 to 2022. These findings emphasize the need to integrate MY La Niñas into regional agriculture and water resource management strategies to better anticipate and mitigate their impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144840003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long waves propagating at the interface between an inviscid subsonic gas and an Oldroyd-B liquid flowing down an oblique substrate 在无粘性亚音速气体和沿斜基底向下流动的Oldroyd-B液体之间的界面上传播的长波
IF 2 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101587
Ahmed Assaf , Sameh A. Alkharashi
{"title":"Long waves propagating at the interface between an inviscid subsonic gas and an Oldroyd-B liquid flowing down an oblique substrate","authors":"Ahmed Assaf ,&nbsp;Sameh A. Alkharashi","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present problem investigated the dynamics of a fine layer for Oldroyd-B liquid moving down an inclined plate subject to a subsonic gas. Solitons propagating at such an interface were investigated to enhance the work novelty. The technique of thin film was employed to get an evolution relation that prescribes such an interface shape along time increase. The treatment based on linear theory was employed. The stability might be enhanced by means of increasing gas thickness and surface tension or decreasing the perturbation coefficient of gas. The viscosity ratio, Reynolds number, and relaxation time had a dual impact. The presence of moving solitons was illustrated under certain conditions for such a film. The nonlinear expectations could be more precision to prescribe the instability compared to the linear one. The present results did give an acceptable practical implementation of potential applications besides facilitating the way to precise numerical simulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 101587"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future drought patterns in Southwest China: A CMIP6-based analysis using multiple drought indices 中国西南未来干旱格局:基于cmip6的多干旱指数分析
IF 5 2区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102702
Yinping Long , Yunfei Huang , Qimin Ma , Wenli Yu , Chunping Tan
{"title":"Future drought patterns in Southwest China: A CMIP6-based analysis using multiple drought indices","authors":"Yinping Long ,&nbsp;Yunfei Huang ,&nbsp;Qimin Ma ,&nbsp;Wenli Yu ,&nbsp;Chunping Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102702","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102702","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>southwest China</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study examines future drought patterns in Southwest China—a humid yet drought-prone region—focusing on trends in drought indices, changes in duration, frequency, and intensity, and their impacts on agriculture. Temperature and precipitation from 20 CMIP6 models were downscaled using the high-resolution China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), and the multi-model ensemble was used to calculate four drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), China-Z Index (CZI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and nonstationary SPEI (NSPEI).</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>SPI and CZI indicate wetter trends under all SSPs, while SPEI and NSPEI project intensified drought risks, especially under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5. SPI and CZI show an \"increase-then-decrease\" pattern in frequency and duration, with stable intensity, while SPEI exhibits a \"decrease-then-increase\" trend across metrics. NSPEI reveals higher extremes and sustained increases in frequency and intensity. Over half of the cropland may be exposed to future droughts, particularly single rice (up to 29,446 km²), single maize (26,733 km²), and single wheat (6106 km²). The Sichuan Basin, as a persistent hotspot, may experience drought exposure of up to 17,755 km² for rice and 11,434 km² for maize. The findings highlight critical regional disparities and stress the urgency of drought adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102702"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mechanisms and Structure of Intense Summer Arctic Cyclones Compared to Mid-Latitude Cyclones 与中纬度气旋相比,夏季强北极气旋的形成机制和结构
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JD043539
Ruichang Ding, Jian Shi, Fei Huang, Wenqin Zhuo, Ruihuang Xie, Shumeng Zhang
{"title":"Mechanisms and Structure of Intense Summer Arctic Cyclones Compared to Mid-Latitude Cyclones","authors":"Ruichang Ding,&nbsp;Jian Shi,&nbsp;Fei Huang,&nbsp;Wenqin Zhuo,&nbsp;Ruihuang Xie,&nbsp;Shumeng Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043539","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Escalating threats posed by intense summer Arctic cyclones (ISACs) to socioeconomic activities in the Arctic necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their intensification and structural evolution mechanisms. This study employs a cyclone-center synthesis method and diagnoses the evolution of ISACs before and after their peak development phase. We find an annual average of four ISACs impacting the Arctic: 52.3% form in mid-latitude regions, and 90.9% reach peak intensity after intruding into the polar region. The frequency of ISACs show no significant trend from 1980 to 2022, whereas the duration of ISACs maintaining extreme intensity in the polar region increases significantly by 2.7 hr per decade. Before peak development phase, the ISACs develop similarly to mid-latitude cyclones. Upper-level warm temperature advection, mid-level positive vorticity advection and diabatic heating (DIA) collectively enhance near-surface vorticity. Adiabatic cooling throughout the troposphere induced by strong upward motion acts as a counterforce. During their intersection with upper-level tropopause polar vortices (TPVs), ISACs exhibit a more pronounced and sustained vertical structure than that of mid-latitude cyclones. Such structure of ISACs is characterized by a stratospheric warm core due to adiabatic heating and descent, and a tropospheric cold core resulting from adiabatic cooling and a lack of convective DIA. After ISACs overlap with TPVs, the upper-level circulation of ISACs can be sustained after the peak development phase. Compared to mid-latitude cyclones, the persistence of the upper-level circulation and interactions between ISACs with TPVs are found in this study to be a key factor contributing to the extended lifetime of ISACs.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Preservation of Primary Si Isotope Signatures in Devonian Lahn-Dill-Type Iron Ores as Revealed by Femtosecond Laser Ablation 飞秒激光烧蚀揭示泥盆系laan - dills型铁矿原生Si同位素特征的保存
IF 3 2区 地球科学
Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025GC012223
Grit Steinhoefel, Leanne Schmitt, Thomas Angerer, Thomas Kirnbauer, Sabine Klein
{"title":"Preservation of Primary Si Isotope Signatures in Devonian Lahn-Dill-Type Iron Ores as Revealed by Femtosecond Laser Ablation","authors":"Grit Steinhoefel,&nbsp;Leanne Schmitt,&nbsp;Thomas Angerer,&nbsp;Thomas Kirnbauer,&nbsp;Sabine Klein","doi":"10.1029/2025GC012223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012223","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Silicon isotopic ratios (expressed as δ<sup>30</sup>Si) become established as a powerful tool to decipher the formation processes of quartz deposits throughout the Earth's history. In this study, we established a protocol for matrix-independent in situ Si isotopic analysis using ultraviolet femtosecond laser ablation (UV fs LA) coupled to multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and applied this method to microcrystalline quartz in Lahn-Dill-type iron ores. Obtained results on “MPI-DING” silicate glasses using NIST SRM 610 as the calibration standard agree with excepted values within uncertainty, revealing an external reproducibility of ±0.2‰ (2 SD) for δ<sup>30</sup>Si. Analysis of quartz and quartz-hematite microdomains in iron ores (Fortuna Mine, Rhenish Massif, Germany) show little differences in average δ<sup>30</sup>Si ranging between −3.66 ±0.97‰ (2 SD) and −3.06 ±0.90‰ (2 SD) but exhibit an overall large variability between −4.56 and −2.04‰ on the micrometer-scale. Together with detailed petrographic and geochemical investigations (Schmitt et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00126-023-01218-3; 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00126-024-01307-x), we conclude that strong kinetic effects during absorption of seawater Si on Fe-(oxyhydr)oxides of hydrothermal origin caused very negative and variable δ<sup>30</sup>Si values in quartz precursors, which were preserved during diagenesis. The derived lower limit for Devonian seawater is −0.9‰ by assuming that the less negative δ<sup>30</sup>Si values reflect precipitation closest to equilibrium conditions. This implies a prevalence of volcanogenic-derived Si in the Rhenohercynian Ocean, a back-arc basin characterized by high volcanic activity. Our results demonstrate the capability of matrix-independent Si isotope analysis by UV fs LA to unravel quartz formation processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"26 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GC012223","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistical Methods to Distinguish Shallow Moonquakes From Impacts 浅层月震与撞击区分的统计方法
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024JE008739
Alice R. Turner, Sean P. S. Gulick, Daniel T. Trugman, Francesco Civilini, Keisuke Onodera
{"title":"Statistical Methods to Distinguish Shallow Moonquakes From Impacts","authors":"Alice R. Turner,&nbsp;Sean P. S. Gulick,&nbsp;Daniel T. Trugman,&nbsp;Francesco Civilini,&nbsp;Keisuke Onodera","doi":"10.1029/2024JE008739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JE008739","url":null,"abstract":"<p>One of the biggest challenges in lunar seismology is accurately classifying seismic signals to evaluate impact and seismicity rates. While past studies have used qualitative differences for classification, we introduce quantitative methods to distinguish the most energetic signals: shallow moonquakes and natural impacts. Our approach utilizes previously under-analyzed data from the short-period Apollo seismic instruments, which operated on the Moon between 1969 and 1977. First, we convert short-period spectrograms to smoothed probability density functions. Next, we use the Kullback–Leibler divergence as a metric to measure the differences in the spectrograms between the two types of event. Using this comparison metric, we find that shallow moonquakes are more similar to other shallow moonquakes than to impacts. By analyzing individual waveforms, we identify features that significantly differ between shallow moonquakes and impacts, such as spectral entropy and autocorrelation. These features, which have characteristic ranges of values for each class of event, can be used to categorize the signal without comparison to another event. We apply these statistical metrics to a set of previously unclassified high-frequency events and shallow moonquakes that were identified last year. We find that high-frequency events and newly identified shallow moonquakes have a variety of features. Many of the shallow moonquakes that were identified last year are consistent with those identified over 50 years ago and may have a range of source depths. Along with supporting reanalysis of the Apollo seismic signals, these statistical metrics may be useful for future analysis of lunar seismic data.</p>","PeriodicalId":16101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets","volume":"130 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JE008739","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144843274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of EUV on Day-To-Night Transport in the Martian Ionosphere EUV对火星电离层日-夜传输的影响
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JA034114
Qimeng Wang, Haoyu Lu, Wing-Huen Ip, Jinbin Cao, Yasong Ge, Shibang Li, Yihui Song, Nihan Chen, Jianxuan Wang, Yuchen Cao, Jianing Zhao
{"title":"Effects of EUV on Day-To-Night Transport in the Martian Ionosphere","authors":"Qimeng Wang,&nbsp;Haoyu Lu,&nbsp;Wing-Huen Ip,&nbsp;Jinbin Cao,&nbsp;Yasong Ge,&nbsp;Shibang Li,&nbsp;Yihui Song,&nbsp;Nihan Chen,&nbsp;Jianxuan Wang,&nbsp;Yuchen Cao,&nbsp;Jianing Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2025JA034114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JA034114","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, as the primary ionization source of Mars' upper atmosphere, plays a vital role in determining ion density and transport in the Martian ionosphere, although its influence remains insufficiently understood. In this study, we employ a three-dimensional multi-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, combined with MAVEN observations, to investigate the response of the dayside and near-nightside ionosphere under varying solar EUV flux levels. The simulation results show that increased EUV flux leads to a significant rise in ion density, accompanied by a decrease in ion velocity across the terminator, which reflects the day-to-night ion flow. Since the increase in density is more significant, the overall ion transport flux across the terminator also increases with higher EUV flux. Analysis of the electric and magnetic fields reveals that the enhanced ion production under stronger EUV conditions results in a denser ionosphere and a corresponding reduction in electric field strength. In particular, both the Hall and motional electric fields, which dominate horizontal ion transport, tend to weaken with increasing ion density. This reduction in the electric field leads to slower trans-terminator velocities. Additionally, the crustal magnetic field in the southern hemisphere modifies ion transport by deflecting and slowing the horizontal plasma flow from the dayside to the nightside.</p>","PeriodicalId":15894,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics","volume":"130 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144843552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning-based lithological mapping and mineral prospecting using hyperspectral and multispectral remote sensing in Wadi Halfa, north Sudan 苏丹北部Wadi Halfa地区基于机器学习的岩性填图及高光谱和多光谱遥感矿产勘探
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学
Journal of African Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2025.105816
Abazar M.A. Daoud , Ali Shebl , Mutwakil Nafi , Abdelmajeed A. Elrasheed , Árpád Csámer , Péter Rózsa
{"title":"Machine learning-based lithological mapping and mineral prospecting using hyperspectral and multispectral remote sensing in Wadi Halfa, north Sudan","authors":"Abazar M.A. Daoud ,&nbsp;Ali Shebl ,&nbsp;Mutwakil Nafi ,&nbsp;Abdelmajeed A. Elrasheed ,&nbsp;Árpád Csámer ,&nbsp;Péter Rózsa","doi":"10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2025.105816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2025.105816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At present, the global demand for mineral resources is critical, leading nations to focus on exploration. Remote sensing is a cost-effective tool, especially in harsh terrains. This study conducted lithological mapping in Wadi Halfa, North Sudan, using algorithm-based remote sensing, field observations, and petrographical analysis to detect iron ore and barite deposits. Multisensor optical datasets (L9, L8, and S2) were integrated to effectively delineate the lithological units. In addition, PRISMA hyperspectral data, with its detailed spectral signatures, improved spatial distribution patterns of barite and iron oxides across the study area. Image processing techniques (false colour composites, principal component analysis, minimum noise friction, band ratios) detected hydroxyl-bearing minerals, ferric, and ferrous oxides. Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Mahalanobis Distance Classifier (MDC) achieved overall accuracies of 95.51 %, 94.59 %, and 98.99 %, respectively. The study helped interpret the spatial relationship between barite and iron oxides. Four types of iron ore with more than three distinct layers were identified, including (a) oolitic ironstone, (b) ferruginous sandstone, (c) ferruginous ironstone, and (d) Banded Iron Formation (BIF) during field investigations, petrographic examinations, and chemical analysis validated remote sensing findings, revealing iron ore (62.7 % Fe) and barite (63.9 % Ba) concentrations. An economic assessment confirmed the presence of economic reserves suitable for exploitation. This research is recommended for broader application, particularly in machine learning for delineating iron ore and barite deposits in complex sedimentary sequences. The realization of machine learning algorithms emphasizes their potential to enhance lithological mapping in sedimentary sequences, suggesting a promising direction for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14874,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Earth Sciences","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 105816"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development of 1D Hybrid Hydromechanical Models for Real-Time Forecasting of Induced Seismicity Rate 实时预测诱发地震活动性的一维混合流体力学模型的建立
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031592
V. Clasen Repollés, A. P. Rinaldi, F. Ciardo, L. Passarelli, D. Karvounis, S. Wiemer
{"title":"Development of 1D Hybrid Hydromechanical Models for Real-Time Forecasting of Induced Seismicity Rate","authors":"V. Clasen Repollés,&nbsp;A. P. Rinaldi,&nbsp;F. Ciardo,&nbsp;L. Passarelli,&nbsp;D. Karvounis,&nbsp;S. Wiemer","doi":"10.1029/2025JB031592","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031592","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hydraulic stimulations play an important role in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) by increasing the permeability of the host rock and facilitating more efficient fluid circulation and heat extraction. However, fluid injection operations are unavoidably accompanied by induced earthquakes. Adaptive Traffic Light Systems (ATLS) have been proposed as seismic risk mitigation tools for EGS stimulations. An ATLS scheme aims to provide real-time, adaptive, and time-dependent probabilistic seismic forecasts by leveraging the latest available data during ongoing industrial operations. Critical to ATLS are numerical models capable of robustly forecasting the temporal evolution of induced seismicity, while properly accounting for uncertainties. In this work, we present two classes of 1D hybrid hydromechanical models for real-time forecasting of induced earthquakes. We retrospectively apply these models to data sets from hydraulic stimulations performed at four different spatial scales: Grimsel Test Site (2017), Bedretto Underground Laboratory for Geoenergy and Geosciences (2022), Utah FORGE (2022), and Basel Deep Heat Mining project (2006). We compare the models' forecasting performance and real-time applicability. We found that a nonlinear pressure solution that accounts for both reversible and irreversible permeability changes, coupled with an analytical probability density-based approach to simulate seismicity, is more suitable for industrial-scale applications. A stochastic approach that explicitly simulates seismicity, albeit simplified and improved for computational efficiency, exhibits greater variability in performance and remains computationally expensive for industrial-scale cases involving large seismic data sets and high spatial resolution requirements.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JB031592","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144833258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New U-series dates on the Petralona cranium, a key fossil in European human evolution 新的u系列日期在佩特拉罗纳头盖骨上,这是欧洲人类进化的关键化石
IF 3.1 1区 地球科学
Journal of Human Evolution Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhevol.2025.103732
Christophe Falguères , Qingfeng Shao , Christian Perrenoud , Chris Stringer , Olivier Tombret , Lisa Garbé , Andreas Darlas
{"title":"New U-series dates on the Petralona cranium, a key fossil in European human evolution","authors":"Christophe Falguères ,&nbsp;Qingfeng Shao ,&nbsp;Christian Perrenoud ,&nbsp;Chris Stringer ,&nbsp;Olivier Tombret ,&nbsp;Lisa Garbé ,&nbsp;Andreas Darlas","doi":"10.1016/j.jhevol.2025.103732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhevol.2025.103732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assigning an age to the nearly complete cranium found in the Petralona Cave in Greece is of outstanding importance because this fossil has a key position in European human evolution. This topic has been debated since its discovery more than 60 years ago, highlighting the difficulties in applying physical dating methods to prehistoric samples. Previous results obtained on various types of samples yielded a large age range between about 170 and 700 ka, precluding any consensus on the age of the human fossil. On the other hand, the original stratigraphic position of the cranium also remains enigmatic, in spite of all the efforts provided by various researchers. Here, we present new U-series dates performed on the calcite that grew directly on the cranium, which is the only sample able to provide crucial information on the age of the fossil. The results yield a finite age suggesting that the Petralona cranium has a minimum age of 286 ± 9 ka. Other speleothems and calcitic coatings were sampled in three main locations in the cave; among them, samples came from the ‘Mausoleum’ where the cranium was supposedly found cemented to a wall. The data show that the calcite covering the cranium is not contemporaneous with that of the Mausoleum wall, despite what was previously thought. The different possibilities, depending on whether or not the cranium was attached to the wall, are discussed in the paper. From a morphological point of view, the Petralona hominin forms part of a distinct and more primitive group than <em>Homo sapiens</em> and Neanderthals, and the new age estimate provides further support for the coexistence of this population alongside the evolving Neanderthal lineage in the later Middle Pleistocene of Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54805,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Evolution","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 103732"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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