中国西南未来干旱格局：基于cmip6的多干旱指数分析

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102702

Yinping Long , Yunfei Huang , Qimin Ma , Wenli Yu , Chunping Tan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了中国西南地区未来的干旱格局，重点研究了干旱指数的变化趋势、持续时间、频率和强度的变化及其对农业的影响。利用高分辨率中国气象强迫数据集（CMFD）对20个CMIP6模式的温度和降水进行缩比，利用多模式集合计算标准化降水指数（SPI）、中国- z指数（CZI）、标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和非平稳SPEI (NSPEI) 4个干旱指数。spi和CZI反映了所有ssp的湿润趋势，而SPEI和NSPEI预测了干旱风险加剧，特别是SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5。SPI和CZI在频率和持续时间上呈“先增加后减少”的模式，强度稳定，而SPEI在各指标上呈“先减少后增加”的趋势。NSPEI显示出更高的极端和持续的频率和强度增加。超过一半的农田可能会面临未来的干旱，特别是单一水稻（高达29,446 km²），单一玉米（26,733 km²）和单一小麦（6106 km²）。四川盆地，作为一个持续的热点，可能会经历干旱暴露高达17755 平方公里的水稻和11434 平方公里的玉米。这些发现突出了严重的区域差异，并强调了干旱适应战略的紧迫性。

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Future drought patterns in Southwest China: A CMIP6-based analysis using multiple drought indices

Study region

southwest China

Study focus

This study examines future drought patterns in Southwest China—a humid yet drought-prone region—focusing on trends in drought indices, changes in duration, frequency, and intensity, and their impacts on agriculture. Temperature and precipitation from 20 CMIP6 models were downscaled using the high-resolution China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), and the multi-model ensemble was used to calculate four drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), China-Z Index (CZI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and nonstationary SPEI (NSPEI).

New hydrological insights for the region

SPI and CZI indicate wetter trends under all SSPs, while SPEI and NSPEI project intensified drought risks, especially under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5. SPI and CZI show an "increase-then-decrease" pattern in frequency and duration, with stable intensity, while SPEI exhibits a "decrease-then-increase" trend across metrics. NSPEI reveals higher extremes and sustained increases in frequency and intensity. Over half of the cropland may be exposed to future droughts, particularly single rice (up to 29,446 km²), single maize (26,733 km²), and single wheat (6106 km²). The Sichuan Basin, as a persistent hotspot, may experience drought exposure of up to 17,755 km² for rice and 11,434 km² for maize. The findings highlight critical regional disparities and stress the urgency of drought adaptation strategies.

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.