Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献

Contribution of snow water equivalent to the terrestrial water storage changes in High Mountain Asia based on multiple datasets

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102401

Qian Li , Weili Duan , Tao Yang , Yuting Fan , Lanhai Li

{"title":"Contribution of snow water equivalent to the terrestrial water storage changes in High Mountain Asia based on multiple datasets","authors":"Qian Li , Weili Duan , Tao Yang , Yuting Fan , Lanhai Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102401","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102401","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>High Mountain Asia.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Snow water <em>equivalent</em> (SWE) storage is a crucial component of the terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA). This study employed monthly data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) NOAH, GLDAS catchment land surface model (CLSM), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis version 5 land (ERA5L), High Asia refined analysis (HAR), and the China Meteorological Administration’s global Land surface reanalysis Interim (CRA) during 2003–2020 to compare the TWS anomaly (TWSA). Additionally, the contribution of SWE to the TWS changes was estimated.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results reveal that the TWSA had a large variability for the multiple datasets while the SWE anomaly (SWEA) time series exhibited more consistent fluctuations. The annual percentage of the SWEA to the TWSA ranged between 7.40–26.95 % for the multiple datasets, indicating the relatively important role of the SWE dynamics in the study area. Three main types of contributions were found in HMA, i.e., positive contributions when the TWSA and SWEA both decreased or both increased, and a negative contribution when the SWEA increased and the TWSA decreased. The individual role of the SWEA in controlling the total TWSA showed large regional and seasonal heterogeneity. The results of this study provide an essential reference for water management and availability to large downstream population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102401"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Long-term prediction of Poyang Lake water level by combining multi-scale isometric convolution network with quantile regression

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102365

Ying Jian , Yong Zheng , Gang Li , Siyang Yao , Tianfu Wen , Zhangjun Liu

{"title":"Long-term prediction of Poyang Lake water level by combining multi-scale isometric convolution network with quantile regression","authors":"Ying Jian , Yong Zheng , Gang Li , Siyang Yao , Tianfu Wen , Zhangjun Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Poyang Lake basin, China</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Deep learning (DL) models have been widely applied to lake water level (WL) forecasts at short lead times. However, long-term prediction remains a significant challenge. This study introduces a novel multi-scale isometric convolution network (MICN) model to predict long-term lake WL for the first time. Additionally, the quantile regression (QR) method is incorporated into MICN to generate interval forecasts, offering probabilistic ranges of future WL to enhance risk management.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The novel MICN model, which comprehensively incorporates both local and global features, successfully achieved robust predictions of Poyang Lake (PYL) WL. In particular, the long-term forecasts (30 days) have been significantly improved, with the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) exceeding 0.98 at each site. Furthermore, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was improved by more than 20 % compared to the next best-performing DL model. Meanwhile, the hybrid QRMICN model demonstrated satisfactory performance in interval prediction for the short-term horizons. The Predicted Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) at four tested stations reached 0.9, while the Predicted Interval Normalized Average Width (PINAW) remained narrow, indicating that the future predicted WL can be well included in the given intervals. This study offers an effective solution for the prediction of PYL WL with highly complex characteristics, which can be also extended to other hydrological variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102365"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The dynamic patterns of groundwater storage in Horqin Sandy Land are driven primarily by climate factors but threatened by human activity

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102388

Xueping Chen , Xueyong Zhao , Yanming Zhao , Jiannan Lu , Ruixiong Wang , Xiaowen Zhu , Liya Bai , Yulai Qiao

{"title":"The dynamic patterns of groundwater storage in Horqin Sandy Land are driven primarily by climate factors but threatened by human activity","authors":"Xueping Chen , Xueyong Zhao , Yanming Zhao , Jiannan Lu , Ruixiong Wang , Xiaowen Zhu , Liya Bai , Yulai Qiao","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Horqin Sandy Land (HQSL), a typical agro-pastoral transition zone in northern China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study assessed groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) in HQSL under climate change and human activity, using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models and <em>in-situ</em> well observations. Herein, Mann–Kendall test, Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) model were applied to analyze the seasonal and long-term trend changes of GWSA and quantify the process of GWSA in HQSL.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights</h3><div>HQSL was divided into sandy plain of intensive water use (Zone I) and mountain of water source (Zone II). GWSA from GRACE fitted well with <em>in-situ</em> data (<em>r²</em> = <em>0.65, p < 0.01</em>). GWSA declined at −0.15 ± 0.12 mm/yr from 1985 to 2002 derived by <em>in-situ</em> observation wells and at −7.79 ± 0.87 mm/yr from 2002 to 2020 evaluated by GRACE. The decline was more pronounced in Zone I (−5.04 ± 0.23 mm/yr) than in Zone II (−3.84 ± 0.18 mm/yr) from 2002 to 2020. Monthly variations peaked in June (−30.78 mm), mitigated by precipitation in August (−8.10 mm) from 2002 to 2020. Spatially, GWSA loss intensified after 2013, particularly in northern mountains. Climate factors consistently influenced GWSA while growing human activity impacts intensified after 2010. These findings provide valuable insights for locals to mitigate climate change impacts through optimization of human activity, as water-saving land use strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102388"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing multi-temporal drought forecasting accuracy for Iran: Integrating an innovative hidden pattern identifier, recursive feature elimination, and explainable ensemble learning

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102382

Mahnoosh Moghaddasi , Mansour Moradi , Mehdi Mohammadi Ghaleni , Mehdi Jamei

{"title":"Enhancing multi-temporal drought forecasting accuracy for Iran: Integrating an innovative hidden pattern identifier, recursive feature elimination, and explainable ensemble learning","authors":"Mahnoosh Moghaddasi , Mansour Moradi , Mehdi Mohammadi Ghaleni , Mehdi Jamei","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Bam and Babolar stations are located in hyperarid and humid climates in Iran, respectively.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The primary objective of this study is to implement Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance multistep forecasting of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for time horizons of one, six, and twelve months. The research employs an innovative hybrid approach that integrates a novel decomposition technique known as Hidden Pattern Feature Extraction Statistical Mode Decomposition (HPFE-SMD), along with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) for feature selection, and the Extra Tree Regressor (ETR) model. Additionally, the effectiveness of the suggested model (HPFE-ETR) was assessed and contrasted with two common methods, Time-Varying Filter-based Empirical Mode Decomposition (TVF-EMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), both of which were combined with ETR.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results showed that the HPFE-ETR model consistently outperformed comparative models, and it significantly improved drought forecasting accuracy, with the largest improvements for SPEI 12 (t + 12) and more moderate gains for SPEI 12 (t + 1). In particular, the model reduced forecasting errors for SPEI 12 by about 70 % in humid climates and 43 % in hyperarid climates, demonstrating its adaptability across different climatic conditions at both study stations. Explainability results revealed that mean features had the strongest positive influence on SPEI 12 forecasts, underscoring the model’s robustness in capturing key drought drivers. These findings highlight the HPFE-ETR model’s potential to revolutionize drought early warning systems and water resource management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102382"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal variations and drivers of runoff in China based on a high-quality continuous runoff dataset

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102398

Dezhi Wang , Lei Shu , Jiaxin Jin , Jing M. Chen

{"title":"Spatiotemporal variations and drivers of runoff in China based on a high-quality continuous runoff dataset","authors":"Dezhi Wang , Lei Shu , Jiaxin Jin , Jing M. Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102398","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102398","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Hydrometric gauge networks across China provide inadequate records for comprehensive natural runoff monitoring. Here, we utilized the China Natural Runoff Dataset, a high-quality, continuous runoff dataset, to elucidate the spatiotemporal variations and key drivers of runoff across China from 1982 to 2015.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>We identified a distinct southeast-to-northwest gradient in runoff distribution. Significant runoff increases in northwest China and declines in central China have collectively shifted the runoff gravity center northwestward. Multiple linear regression analysis reveals that precipitation is the dominant driver of runoff variations across 90 % of the country, with high coefficients of determination (<span><math><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> > 0.4, <em>p</em> < 0.05). Significant positive correlations between runoff and precipitation are observed across all river basins, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.77 to 0.95 (<em>p</em> < 0.05). Vegetation cover and air temperature are the leading factors that influence runoff both positively and negatively in 5.5 % and 4.5 % of the grids, respectively, mainly in the Continental River basin (CRB) and the Yellow River basin (YRB). In CRB, rising temperatures may increase evaporation and exacerbate soil moisture deficits, leading to reduced runoff, or alternatively may enhance glacial snowmelt and thereby increase runoff. In YRB, human-driven vegetation restoration efforts around 2000 significantly reduced runoff, whereas notable increases in runoff post-2000 are likely attributed to substantial rises in precipitation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102398"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143835129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Identification, measurement and spatiotemporal evolution of drought and pluvial events in China based on a three-dimensional perspective 基于三维视角的中国干旱和冲积事件的识别、测量与时空演变

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102384

Weiqi Xiang , Xiaohua Yang , Zeji Yi , Boyang Sun , Dehui Bian , Meishui Li , Zesi Pan , Yiqing Jia

{"title":"Identification, measurement and spatiotemporal evolution of drought and pluvial events in China based on a three-dimensional perspective","authors":"Weiqi Xiang , Xiaohua Yang , Zeji Yi , Boyang Sun , Dehui Bian , Meishui Li , Zesi Pan , Yiqing Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>China</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>China is a country with frequent drought and pluvial disasters. It is of great significance to accurately identify and measure such events and study their spatiotemporal evolution rules for dealing with future events. This study comprehensively investigates large-scale and long-term drought and pluvial events in China based on a spatiotemporal three-dimensional perspective at daily scale. This study analyzed the overall change trend of drought and pluvial in China in the past 58 years, carried out time series and frequency analysis on the intensity of 266 pluvial events and 1078 drought events in humid and semihumid areas of China and studied the geographical spatial pattern.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Unlike the monthly distribution characteristics, the morphological parameters of drought and pluvial events exhibit similar patterns. From 1961–2018, the Northwestern regions, Southwestern regions and Northeastern regions tended to become drier, while the Central regions and Southern regions tended to become wetter. Around 2011, most parts of China significantly shifted from drought to wet conditions. Drought and pluvial events show significant quasi-periodicity, with periods of 2–3 years and 11 years, respectively. The centers of drought events exhibit significant spatial variability, whereas the centers of pluvial events have a relatively balanced geographical distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102384"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143835130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Contribution of surface evaporation to winter fog formation: Numerical simulation of water transport in silty soils of SW Hungary using the Hydrus-1D model

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102397

Anikó Cséplő Juhászné , Noémi Sarkadi , Szabolcs Czigány , István Geresdi

{"title":"Contribution of surface evaporation to winter fog formation: Numerical simulation of water transport in silty soils of SW Hungary using the Hydrus-1D model","authors":"Anikó Cséplő Juhászné , Noémi Sarkadi , Szabolcs Czigány , István Geresdi","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102397","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102397","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Baranya, <em>SW</em> Hungary</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The impact of soil moisture on fog formation is studied using the Hydrus-1D numerical model. Four different fog events were chosen to simulate the time evolution of the water content profiles and evaporation from the surface. The observed soil temperature and water content were used to provide the initial condition for the numerical model, and to validate the model results. A sensitivity study was performed to reveal the impact of uncertainties.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results can be summarized as follows: (i) uncertainty on the initial soil moisture content do not influence the surface vapor flux significantly; (ii) discrepancy between the observed and simulated soil moisture profile may have a small effect on the reliability of the simulated surface evaporation; (iii) surface evaporation is governed by both the relative humidity in the atmosphere and the soil moisture in the uppermost 10 cm layer. If the relative humidity is larger the 90 % the surface evaporation is ceased; (iv) surface evaporation continuously enhances the specific humidity in the atmosphere, shortening the time period required for the cooling the atmosphere become saturated for the fog formation; (v) in the investigated cases the fog forms after the cessation of surface evaporation, and the rate of evaporation is negligible if the atmospheric relative humidity is higher than 90 % during fog events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102397"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143835128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of Tropical Cyclone on Coastal Phytoplankton Blooms and Underlying Mechanisms

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102389

Haiyi Shi , Ying Chen , Hui Zhao , Robert Mortimer , Gang Pan

{"title":"Impact of Tropical Cyclone on Coastal Phytoplankton Blooms and Underlying Mechanisms","authors":"Haiyi Shi , Ying Chen , Hui Zhao , Robert Mortimer , Gang Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>Northern Beibu Gulf, China</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>This study examines the impact of tropical cyclone (TC) \"Wipha\" (2019) on phytoplankton chlorophyll-<em>a</em> (Chl-<em>a</em>) dynamics, using observations from two buoy stations (S1 and S2). Results indicate that persistently high turbidity at the inner bay (station S1) restricted underwater light availability, resulting in an insignificant change in mean daily Chl-<em>a</em> concentrations, despite sufficient nutrients. Conversely, at the outer bay (station S2), Chl-<em>a</em> significantly increased after the storm, exhibiting notable delayed correlations with elevated turbidity (<em>r</em> = 0.87, <em>p</em> < 0.01) and aerosol deposition (<em>r</em> = 0.90, <em>p</em> < 0.01). The differential phenomenon at two locations highlights that distinct environmental control the responses of phytoplankton dynamics to the tropical cyclone, primarily related to light availability and nutrient sources.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region</h3><div>In contrast to prior studies, the nutrient source leading to increased Chl-<em>a</em> at the outer bay may result from wet deposition of aerosols and re-suspension of suspended matter, rather than direct terrestrial nutrient inputs. Additionally, the prolonged turbidity recovery period (up to 5 days) at the inner bay substantially limited phytoplankton growth, highlighting TC-induced turbidity as a critical factor constraining phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic coastal environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102389"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

South African soil, land cover and weather generator file databases for SWAT applications

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102387

Jay le Roux , Ndifelani Mararakanye , Michael van der Laan , Leushantha Mudaly , Harold Louw Weepener , Johan van Tol

{"title":"South African soil, land cover and weather generator file databases for SWAT applications","authors":"Jay le Roux , Ndifelani Mararakanye , Michael van der Laan , Leushantha Mudaly , Harold Louw Weepener , Johan van Tol","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>South Africa.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The focus of the study is to develop soil, land cover and weather generator file datasets for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) applications in South Africa. The first objective was to format national datasets for use as baseline to run the SWAT model in South Africa. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of the baseline input data by applying the national datasets in four (previously simulated) research catchments.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The input datasets comprise of geo-spatial datasets at a national scale to run ArcSWAT or QSWAT (graphical user interface for SWAT in ArcGIS and SWAT+ in QGIS, respectively) in South Africa including: SWAT catchment outline data (tertiary and quaternary); Land cover maps at 20–30 m resolution including South African National Land Cover (2014, 2018, 2020) linked to SWAT land cover codes; A soil map with SWAT attribute data derived from pedotransfer functions of the Land Type Database of South Africa useable at a scale of 1:250,000; Weather statistics (WGN) files for 12 weather stations obtained from the Agricultural Research Council in South Africa. The national baseline data is an important step forward in hydrological modelling by assisting modellers to set-up and run the SWAT model in South Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102387"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Water resource vulnerabilities from climate-induced tipping point behaviour in runoff volumes and seasonality in the region of the ‘Karakoram Anomaly’: A snow-glacier melt perspective

IF 4.7 2区地球科学

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102386

Jamal Hassan Ougahi , John S. Rowan

{"title":"Water resource vulnerabilities from climate-induced tipping point behaviour in runoff volumes and seasonality in the region of the ‘Karakoram Anomaly’: A snow-glacier melt perspective","authors":"Jamal Hassan Ougahi , John S. Rowan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102386","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102386","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Hunza River Basin, Karakoram range, Pakistan</div></div><div><h3>Focus of study</h3><div>Assessing the future persistence of the 'Karakoram Anomaly,' under climate change scenarios, where glaciers in the region exhibit stable or slightly negative mass balances, contrary to global trends.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The study explores how long the anomalous behaviour in Karakoram glaciers will persist under future climate scenarios. The results indicate a significant temperature rise under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5), whereas SSP2 exhibits greater variability. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline due to reduced snowfall and faster snowmelt across all seasons, particularly in summer and autumn. Our glacio-hydrological model projects substantial glacier retreat from 4270 km<sup>2</sup> in 2010 reducing to 3540 km<sup>2</sup> or 2730 km<sup>2</sup> by 2100 according to SSP2 and SSP5, respectively. Increased annual runoff peaks around 2050 (SSP2) and by 2070 (SSP5) before decline in total runoff by 2100. The study also highlights significant climate change impacts on seasonal hydrology, associated with declines in glacier and snowpack water storage in the next three decades. This stresses the need for adaptive water resource management (e.g. storage infrastructure or changing demand management) to address potential water shortages to human water users e.g. irrigation and hydropower and associated ecosystem disruptions including extreme flooding. These findings provide valuable insights for future hydro-climatic dynamics and policymaking in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102386"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0