Spatiotemporal evolution of ecological risks in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin: Implications for sustainable hydropower

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102829

Jiaqin Pan , Hongbo Li , Yulong Li , Zongzhu Chen , Dezhi Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Recent hydropower acceleration in developing countries reveals a key issue: many projects lack basin-wide environmental impact assessments pre-development. As an international waterway, the Yarlung Zangbo River faces similar challenges, underscoring the urgent need for pre-project ecological risk assessments.

Study focus

This study proposes a new ecological risk assessment method combining landscape ecological risk with hydrological risk, using the space-time cube (STC) approach to detect risk trends, focusing on hydropower-controlled watersheds.

New hydrological insights

Results show that from 2002 to 2022, the average ecological risk in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin decreased from 0.515 to 0.498, with high-risk areas dropping from 51.03 % to 29.14 %, mainly in the east and center. The southeast maintained low risk, while the northwest exhibited higher risk. Persistent hotspots of ecological risk (21.96 % of the area) were concentrated in the west and center, while cold spots (11.58 %) were more common in the east. Watersheds managed by hydropower stations showed a steady decline in ecological risk, with low-risk areas peaking in 2022, suggesting stable or improved operational safety. This study provides a novel concise and efficient preliminary assessment methodology for basin ecological risk, uncovering ecological risk patterns in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin and supporting hydrological policy development and sustainable hydropower development.

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雅鲁藏布江流域生态风险时空演变：对水电可持续发展的启示

最近发展中国家的水电加速发展揭示了一个关键问题：许多项目在开发前缺乏全流域环境影响评估。作为国际航道，雅鲁藏布江面临着类似的挑战，迫切需要进行项目前生态风险评估。本研究以水电控制流域为研究对象，提出了景观生态风险与水文风险相结合的生态风险评价新方法，利用时空立方（STC）方法检测风险趋势。结果表明：2002 - 2022年，雅鲁藏布江流域平均生态风险从0.515下降到0.498，高风险区域从51.03 %下降到29.14 %，主要集中在东部和中部；东南地区风险较低，西北地区风险较高。生态风险持续热点区（21.96 %）集中在西部和中部，冷点区（11.58 %）集中在东部。水电站管理流域生态风险稳步下降，低风险区在2022年达到峰值，表明运行安全稳定或有所改善。该研究为雅鲁藏布江流域生态风险提供了一种新颖、简洁、高效的初步评估方法，揭示了雅鲁藏布江流域的生态风险格局，为水文政策制定和水电可持续发展提供了支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.