地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Seismoelectromagnetic and Seismoionospheric Phenomena: From the Pioneering Works of G.A. Sobolev to Present","authors":"V. A. Pilipenko,&nbsp;V. V. Surkov","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700557","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700557","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—The review considers seismoelectromagnetic and seismoionospheric phenomena, the potential of which for earthquake forecasting and exploration geophysics was anticipated by the remarkable Russian geophysicist G.A. Sobolev. His works has focused geophysicists all over the world to the research in these fields, and by now they have developed rapidly. The directions of research, the origin of which modern geophysics owes much to G.A. Sobolev, include the study of the relationship between seismic and electromagnetic noise and vibrations, electromagnetic response of rock to loading, perturbations in the electrotelluric fields during the preparation of a seismic event, anomalies on radio paths and ionospheric disturbances before strong earthquakes, and trigger phenomena in geophysics. The development of the ideas in the later research proved the general value of the pioneering ideas of G.A. Sobolev. The current state of research in these fields and the problems faced by geophysicists are considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"609 - 625"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental Study of Failure of a Porous Medium during a Pressure Drop","authors":"E. V. Zenchenko,&nbsp;S. B. Turuntaev","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700594","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700594","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—A number of negative consequences are associated with a pore pressure drop in permeable fluid-saturated rocks: sudden coal outbursts, destruction of the borehole surrounding rock in oil producing wells, methane emissions as a result of permafrost degradation, etc. The article discusses results of a series of model laboratory experiments to study the destruction of a porous fluid-saturated material of low strength during rapid pressure release at its boundary. The rate of pressure release, the strength properties of the material, the presence of gas, and the position of the boundary between the gas and fluid were varied. The conditions for the formation of microcracks and permeability increase during repeated cycles of pressure growth-release were found. It has been established that with an increase in the rate of pressure release, the number of cracks formed, and the depth of destruction increases. Numerical modeling of the formation of macrocracks during pressure release in gas-filled samples was carried out.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"650 - 660"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Sliding Surface Macrostructure in the Nucleation and Development of Dynamic Instability in the Upper Part of the Earth’s Crust","authors":"G. G. Kocharyan,&nbsp;A. A. Ostapchuk,&nbsp;G. A. Gridin,&nbsp;S. B. Kishkina,&nbsp;D. V. Pavlov","doi":"10.1134/S106935132570051X","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S106935132570051X","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—The heterogeneous structure of a future rupture surface plays an important role at all stages of the development of dynamic instability in the rock masses. The presence of inhomogeneities leads to the formation of stress concentration patches on large-scale irregularities (asperities) and relatively unloaded sections of the interface with radically different frictional properties. Interaction of such zones may produce a more complex effect than solely stress concentration. The published data of geodetic and seismological observations suggest that with certain structural configurations of the fault zone, various modes of fault movements may occur, from slow slip events to supershear rupture. The article presents the results of laboratory experiments on the displacement of meter-scale rock blocks whose contact interface contained zones of increased strength with velocity-weakening behavior. The laboratory results were compared with the effects observed in nature using a database containing rupture models for more than 150 earthquakes in different regions of the world was. A joint analysis of the results of laboratory experiments and seismological observations has shown that rupture develops by several scenarios determined by relative locations of asperity zones. Information about the locations of such zones required for numerical modeling of the deformation process in a specific crustal region can be derived from the results of satellite and seismological observations. In areas of preparation of relatively small earthquakes where geodetic observations are ineffective, the necessary information can be acquired from microseismicity observations.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"691 - 702"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Relationship between RTL and b-Value Anomalies of Seismicity","authors":"V. B. Smirnov,&nbsp;A. A. Petrushov","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700545","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700545","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—The essay prepared for the issue of the journal to honor the memory of G.A. Sobolev reflects the history of creation and describes the physical foundations of the method for detecting precursory <i>RTL</i> anomalies of seismicity proposed by G.A. Sobolev in 1995. The physical ideas precursory patterns in <i>RTL</i> parameter and Gutenberg–Richter <i>b</i>-value are discussed from the standpoint of the avalanche-unstable fracture formation (AUF) concept. The previous results on the comparison of the <i>RTL</i> and <i>b</i>-value anomalies revealed in a number of regions pertaining to different tectonic types (subduction zones, rift and shear zones) are summarized. Issues associated with <i>RTL</i> and <i>b-</i>value calculation methods are discussed. The manifestations of the anomalies in the regions pertaining to different tectonic types share common patterns and have regional differences. In the shear zones, the temporal sequence of the beginnings of seismic quiescence stages (<i>RTL</i> parameter) and changes in the energy “spectrum” of seismicity (<i>b-</i>value) proved to be inverse to the temporal sequence of stages observed in the subduction zones and in the rift zone. At the same time, in all regions, irrespective of their tectonic type, the temporal sequence of the stages of <i>b-</i>value anomaly formation and seismicity activation is identical: activation begins later than the <i>b-</i>value begins to decrease. This pattern corresponds to the scenario following from the AUF concept, thus confirming the validity of this concept in tectonically diverse regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"539 - 552"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systematic Earthquake Forecast","authors":"V. G. Gitis,&nbsp;A. B. Derendyaev","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700478","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700478","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—A computer method for systematic earthquake prediction is considered. The forecast is calculated regularly and for a constant time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone in which the epicenters of the target earthquakes are expected. The forecast is considered successful if all epicenters of target earthquakes in a given interval fall within the alarm zone. The method of the minimum area of alarm is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast within a limited alarm zone, making it possible to estimate the probability of a successful decision at the next forecast interval and providing an explanation of the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of a systematic forecast of earthquakes in Kamchatka is considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"563 - 574"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Typical Precursor Anomalies of the February 6, 2023, Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet, Turkey, and the Mw 9.0+ Andaman-Sumatra and Tohoku, Japan Mega-Earthquakes","authors":"M. V. Rodkin,&nbsp;T. S. Irmak,&nbsp;T. Taymaz,&nbsp;E. V. Liperovskaya","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700569","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700569","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—Previously, based on the construction and analysis of the generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE), the set of typical precursor signs of a large earthquake was identified and described in great detail. However, these typical features are rather rarely detected in the foreshock areas of individual large earthquakes. It was noted that the proportion of the events occurring in the foreshock regions where precursor signs are identified increases with the number of weak events in the vicinity of a given large earthquake. In this paper, a number of cases provided with more extensive seismicity data, it is checked how often the GVLE signs are detected when large sets of seismological data are considered. It is shown that in these cases, GVLE anomalies are detected in most cases. A proportion between the magnitudes of the target events and the completeness level of the catalogs to ensure highly probable identification of precursor GVLE anomalies is proposed. The problem of false alarms remains unresolved.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"575 - 585"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rethinking Paired-Catchment Studies: Should We Be Replicating Our Controls?","authors":"Steve Wondzell, Sherri Johnson, Gordon Grant, Don Henshaw, Adam Ward","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038981","url":null,"abstract":"Paired-catchment studies are widely used to examine the effects of land management practices (“treatments”) on hydrologic processes. Catchments are matched and a pretreatment calibration regression is used to identify the hydrological relationship between the reference and treated catchments. This method assumes that the calibration regression represents the actual relationship between the catchments (assumption of representativeness) and that the relationship will remain stable over time (assumption of stability). Errors are assumed to be small and similar between reference and treated catchments. Thus, observed differences between the catchments following treatment are assumed to result from that treatment alone. However, calibration periods are often short and it is impossible to know if the calibration period is representative. Further, because the study is unreplicated, it is impossible to determine if stability is maintained. Consequently, it is difficult to determine a minimum detectable effect sizes (MDES) below which estimates of changes in streamflow are statistically uncertain. Here, we use bootstrapped sampling from reference-by-reference (RxR) comparisons in a paired-catchment study design to evaluate the MDES. We generate frequency distributions of the potential changes in flow—changes that cannot be caused by treatment effects. From these, we estimate bootstrapped ±95% confidence intervals encompassing the non-treatment effects which we use as the MDES. We apply this method to long-term paired-catchment studies and reexamine changes in both annual water yields and late summer low flows at the HJA Experimental Forest. This bootstrapping method is widely transferable to any long-term paired catchment study sites where multiple reference catchments exist.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145229369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismogeological Conditions of Preparation of Hazardous Earthquakes in Fault Nodes","authors":"V. V. Ruzhich,&nbsp;E. A. Levina","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700570","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700570","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—The article discusses the results obtained from a detailed examination of the conditions for the preparation of hazardous earthquakes at different hierarchical levels: global, regional (Mongolia), and local (sections of the Baikal Rift Zone). Attention is paid to consideration of episodes of occurrence of instances of seismic activation in the vicinity of fault nodes of various scale levels, as well as geological and structural conditions that influence the modes of preparation of hazardous earthquake sources. study takes into account the linear dimensions and morphogenetic types of faults, their junction angles, specific features of the modern seismic regime, as well as information on seismic activity in the past. It has been established that due to the diverse conditions of dynamic interaction of faults at their junctions, strong earthquakes often occur in short time intervals and with their epicenters located close to each other. Such features complicate earthquake forecasting, since traditional ideas about the recurrence periods of earthquakes of a given magnitude are violated. Also, when forecasting earthquakes, additional problems arise concerning the estimates of the duration of earthquake expectation periods for short, medium and long time intervals. The authors have shown that in order to determine the duration of the waiting periods for hazardous earthquakes, it is currently possible to establish only probabilistic estimates of this parameter, linked to estimates of the predicted energy of upcoming events. To do this, it is necessary to conduct detailed observations of variations in the seismic regime of weak earthquakes at different crustal depths, and to record anomalous changes in the deformation regime and slip rate. It is also important to conduct geophysical observations of changes in parameters characteristic of the final stage of preparation of earthquake foci.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"719 - 730"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological Tsunamis: From Local Hazard to Global Relevance","authors":"Ivica Vilibić,&nbsp;Petra Zemunik Selak,&nbsp;Jadranka Šepić","doi":"10.1029/2024RG000867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024RG000867","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Research on meteorological tsunamis or meteotsunamis—long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band generated by propagating atmospheric disturbances which resonantly enhance ocean waves—has grown significantly in recent decades. This expansion is due to progress in (a) ocean and atmospheric measurements, including advanced instrumentation with higher precision and smaller sampling time steps, as well as installation of meteotsunami tracking measurement networks, (b) ocean and atmospheric data products, including those related to the upper atmosphere and ionosphere, and (c) supercomputing capabilities and sophisticated atmosphere-ocean models that successfully simulate both atmospheric planetary processes and mesoscale systems capable of generating meteotsunamis, as well as sea level response to these. Meteotsunamis can induce multi-meter sea level oscillations in harbors and low-lying areas, leading to severe flooding, infrastructure damage, injuries, and sometimes fatalities. Traditionally, meteotsunami research focused on individual event analyses using available sea level and lower-layer atmospheric observations. Recently, efforts have shifted toward global hazard mapping, the development of forecast and early-warning systems, and toward quantifying projected meteotsunamis intensity and frequency, using climate models. The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano, which generated acoustic-gravity waves that circled the globe, has spurred research of planetary meteotsunami waves and their potential to pose coastal hazards worldwide. Additionally, meteotsunamis radiate acoustic-gravity waves vertically, creating ionospheric oscillations detectable through electron content variations. This review will cover the mentioned developments and conclude with a discussion of research gaps and potential directions for further studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"63 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":37.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024RG000867","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Role of Taking into Account Microstructure in Constructing Models of the Effective Elastic Properties of Limestones","authors":"I. O. Bayuk,&nbsp;D. E. Beloborodov,&nbsp;M. A. Krasnova,&nbsp;T. E. Bagdasaryan,&nbsp;M. V. Pirogov","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700466","DOIUrl":"10.1134/S1069351325700466","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—The study constructs parametric mathematical models of the effective elastic properties of carbonate rocks with complex structure, represented by fine-grained organogenic-detrital limestones of the Moscovian with traces of dissolution. Such models make it possible to link parameters characterizing the composition and microstructure of rocks with their macroscopic elastic properties. With measurements of elastic wave velocities on representative rock samples, it is possible to estimate the parameters of their microstructure. However, the solution to such an inverse problem is usually ambiguous, necessitating the search for ways to reduce the domain of possible solutions. In order to solve this problem, this study uses measurements of elastic wave velocities (longitudinal and transverse) obtained on a representative sample of studied rocks in three states of fluid saturation: dry, water-saturated, and glycerin-saturated. Based on the results of measuring the mass of a sample between successive different fluid saturations and at the end of the measurement cycle, the following conclusion was drawn: as a result of repeated drying of the sample and saturation with the next liquid, its porosity did not change. As a result, it can be assumed that in each state of fluid saturation, the same structurally unaltered rock was studied. It is shown that the solution to the inverse problem for velocities obtained on a sample saturated with only one fluid leads to a large area of ambiguity in the solution for determining the parameters of the microstructure of the model, although the number of unknown parameters of the model is equal to the number of independent velocity measurements. Using data on sample velocities in other fluid saturation states to solve the inverse problem significantly reduces the uncertainty of the solution. Examples of the application of the constructed mathematical model of elastic properties of rocks to solve the problem of fluid substitution and influence of cracks on the elastic wave velocities of rocks are given.</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"661 - 675"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}