International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

{"title":"Health risks and benefits of UV radiation: Assessing exposure times related to vitamin D₃ synthesis alongside the potential risk of sunburn in northern mid-latitudes.","authors":"Slavica Malinović-Milićević, Gorica Stanojević, Elena Milićević, Milan M Radovanović, Dragoslav Pavić, Yerlan Kabiyev","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03314-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-026-03314-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this research, the duration of exposure of unprotected skin required for the synthesis of 1000 IU of vitamin D₃ (₁₀₀₀D₃), along with the associated risk of erythema, was examined for Novi Sad (45.33° N, 19.85° E, 84 m asl) and Kopaonik (43.28° N, 20.80° E, 1710 m asl) (Serbia) in the period 2004-2020. A novel model for estimating hourly ultraviolet radiation doses from daily values was proposed. The focus was on data around local noon (10:00 and 15:00 h CET), skin types II and III, and four age groups (0-21, 22-40, 41-59, 60+). The analysis showed that from April to September, most individuals can expose their skin to sunlight enough to produce ₁₀₀₀D₃ without exceeding the erythema threshold. Nevertheless, during February, March, October, and November, most age groups have a greater risk of erythema prior to achieving ₁₀₀₀D₃. However, in the winter months, the exposure required to obtain ₁₀₀₀D₃ frequently exceeds the level at which erythema can develop. Moreover, during January and December, even spending up to five hours in the sun is insufficient for most individuals to reach the ₁₀₀₀D₃. It is also noted that levels of hourly erythema and vitamin D₃ doses are higher in Kopaonik than in Novi Sad, likely due to the higher elevation. Therefore, the exposure time for causing erythema is shorter in Kopaonik. However, due to a smaller body exposure area, the exposure time required to achieve the ₁₀₀₀D₃ is longer in Kopaonik than in Novi Sad, while sub-erythemal vitamin D₃ synthesis windows are very close, except during winter.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148872503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nonlinear expansion, spatial diffusion, and climate-driven dynamics of scorpionism in Brazil: a nationwide time-series and DLNM analysis (2007-2025).","authors":"Elania Barros da Silva, José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior, Amaury de Souza, David Mendes, Mônica Dayane Albuquerque Tenório, Luis Felipe Francisco Ferreira da Silva, Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, Sudhir Kumar Singh","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03311-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03311-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Scorpionism has emerged as a growing public health concern in Brazil, characterized by increasing incidence and geographic expansion. Despite this trend, studies integrating climatic drivers and advanced time-series modeling remain limited. This study aims to analyze the temporal dynamics, spatial diffusion, and climate-disease relationships of scorpion sting incidence in Brazil using a nationwide dataset from 2007 to 2025. Monthly scorpion sting data from SINAN/DATASUS were combined with high-resolution climatic variables from the TerraClimate dataset. Descriptive statistics, seasonal analysis, and lagged correlation were applied to explore temporal patterns. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature and precipitation on scorpion sting incidence. The results revealed a pronounced non-linear increase in scorpionism, with a structural breakpoint around 2011 indicating accelerated expansion. Seasonal patterns showed higher incidence between September and November. Lag analysis demonstrated that temperature had the strongest association with incidence, peaking at a one-month lag (r ≈ 0.57), while precipitation exhibited weaker but delayed effects. DLNM results confirmed significant non-linear and lag-dependent relationships, with elevated temperatures associated with increased risk at short lag periods. Scorpionism in Brazil is a climate-sensitive and dynamically evolving epidemiological system, driven by the interaction of environmental variability and urban expansion. These findings highlight the need for integrated, climate-informed public health strategies and predictive modeling approaches to mitigate future risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13529833/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148863174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term citizen science data reveals climate influences of tropical tree flowering at the regional scale","authors":"Krishna Anujan,&nbsp;Jacob Mardian,&nbsp;Carina Luo,&nbsp;Ramraj Rajakumar,&nbsp;Hana Tasic,&nbsp;Nadia Akseer,&nbsp;Geetha Ramaswami","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03291-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03291-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Tropical tree reproductive phenology is sensitive to changing climate, but inter-individual and interannual variability at the regional scale is poorly understood. While large-scale and long-term datasets of environmental variables are available, reproductive phenology needs to be measured in-site, limiting the spatiotemporal scales of the data. We leveraged a unique dataset assembled by SeasonWatch, a citizen-science phenology monitoring programme in India to assess the environmental correlates of flowering in three ubiquitous and economically important tree species - jackfruit, mango and tamarind - in the south-western Indian state of Kerala. We explored (i) seasonal patterns in the flowering of trees (ii) environmental correlates of flowering onset considering only trees with consecutive observations. We used 165,006 phenology observations spread over 19,591 individual trees over 9 years. We first used bootstrapped circular statistics that accounts for observation biases in time to examine consistency in seasonality of flowering status over the whole season, and flowering onset across years and trees. Similar to results from cohort-based tree monitoring, we demonstrate seasonality in flowering status and onset across species, but also report large interannual and inter-individual variability. We then used used generalized linear mixed models with remotely sensed observations (ERA5-LAND) to show that some of the interannual variation in flowering onset across individuals was associated with environmental variables. Soil moisture, minimum temperature and solar radiation had significant associations with the onset of flowering but these effects were heterogeneous across species and habitats across Kerala. Our results become increasingly important in the face of large spatiotemporal change in the climate of this landscape and other tropical regions. We demonstrate the potential and limitations of citizen-science observations in making and testing predictions at scale for predictive climate science in tropical landscapes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148837474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heat stress responses and thermoregulatory dynamics in Murrah buffalo calves assessed by infrared thermography","authors":"Reetu Kumari,&nbsp;Priyambada Kumari,&nbsp;Brijesh Yadav,&nbsp;Shanker Kumar Singh,&nbsp;Vansh Sharma,&nbsp;Manish Tiwari,&nbsp;Saeeda Khanam,&nbsp;Pooja Dawar,&nbsp;Krishna Verma,&nbsp;Arun Kumar Madan","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03307-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03307-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The study investigated thermoregulatory dynamics in <i>Murrah</i> buffalo calves under heat stress using infrared thermography. Six calves (8–12 months old; weighing 125 ± 15.35 kg) were exposed in a psychrometric chamber to temperatures of 25, 28, 31, 34, 37, and 40 °C, corresponding to temperature–humidity indices (THIs) ranging from 73 to 90. Each exposure lasted 12 h daily (0600–1800 h) for 10 consecutive days, with animals kept at 25 °C and 65% humidity (THI: 73.49) during the remaining 12 h. On the 10th day, respiratory rate (RR), pulse rate (PR), rectal temperature (RT), feed intake and water intake were recorded and infrared thermography was done to record body surface temperatures (BST) at head, neck, eye, ear, croup, and muzzle besides blood sampling. Significant increases (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) in RT, PR, RR, and water intake were first observed at 34 °C, while feed intake declined significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) at 34 °C. BSTs increased significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) at 28 °C compared to 25 °C and rose progressively thereafter, though values at 28 and 31 °C, and 34 and 37 °C, were similar except at muzzle. An approximate 5 °C rectal-to-surface temperature gradient was associated with effective thermoregulation under cyclic heat stress. Hematological changes included leukocytosis (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) at 34 °C, along with lymphocytosis, granulocytopenia (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) and elevated plasma cortisol (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) at 31 °C. Among anatomical sites, muzzle temperature exhibited strongest correlation with ambient temperature (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), while ear and neck temperatures correlated most strongly with RT (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01). Correlation analysis further revealed that all studied physiological and hematological parameters, except erythrocytic indices and granulocyte percentage, were significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) associated with BST at one or more body sites. In conclusion, progressive cyclic heat exposure induced staged thermophysiological adjustments in Murrah buffalo calves, with 31–34 °C representing a transitional range of systemic activation. Maintenance of an approximate 5 °C rectal-to-surface temperature gradient reflected effective thermoregulatory reserve, whereas its narrowing indicated increasing thermal strain. Ear and neck surface temperatures showed strong associations with rectal temperature, supporting their potential as non-invasive indicators of thermal status. Infrared thermography may therefore aid precision-based heat stress monitoring in buffalo.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148838044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Outdoor thermal perception at a beach within a subtropical marine park","authors":"Jiayi Mi,&nbsp;Qiong Li,&nbsp;Peijie Tang,&nbsp;Qi Li,&nbsp;Haotian Wu,&nbsp;Renzhi Wu,&nbsp;Ariane Middel,&nbsp;Andreas Matzarakis","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03298-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03298-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Subtropical coastal regions are increasingly important public spaces within urban systems, yet microclimatic conditions and associated thermal outcomes of beaches and coastal areas remain understudied despite growing climate-related heat risks. The field study on Hailing Island, China, combined micrometeorological measurements with thermal perception assessment using thermal indices, including Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), modified PET (mPET), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and a human energy budget (EB) approach, to characterize the beach microclimate and evaluate human thermal responses. This study distinguishes between objective thermal stress and individual-reported thermal perception under self-selected exposure. Results showed that the beach surface had high albedo and increased reflected shortwave radiation, thereby intensifying the radiative heat load and contributing to daytime thermal stress. Sea breezes reduced thermal stress under typical sea–land breeze conditions. Tree-covered beach spaces exhibited improved thermal conditions, with denser canopies (e.g., <i>Casuarina equisetifolia</i> L.) providing stronger solar shielding than coconut canopies. Under unshaded beach conditions, air temperature and mean radiant temperature dominated thermal perception, while the influence of air humidity was partly linked to sea-breeze processes. Under tree-shaded conditions, wind speed and mean radiant temperature became the primary drivers. Users demonstrated adaptive behaviors, including preferential use of shaded areas and exposure management in beach zones. Calibrated thermoneutral ranges for beach users were identified as 20.9 to 30.4 °C (PET), 24.7 to 30.7 °C (mPET), 25.8 to 30.8 °C (UTCI), and − 56.1 to 34.8 W m^− 2 (EB). These results provide evidence to support climate-responsive beach design and heat-mitigation strategies in subtropical coastal environments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148817035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A fourteen-year analysis of thermal stress in Kuwait","authors":"Ali Al-Hemoud,&nbsp;Hassan Al-Dashti,&nbsp;Ahmad Al-Khayat,&nbsp;Weam Behbehani,&nbsp;Bashayer Almaraghi,&nbsp;Jason Glaser,&nbsp;Petros Koutrakis,&nbsp;Barrak Alahmad","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03303-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03303-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Arabian Peninsula region, particularly the Gulf Cooperative Countries (GCC) experience extreme heat with a warming trend and frequent and intense heat waves. Summer maximum temperatures (June, July, and August ‘JJA’) routinely soar above 50 °C. In this study, we analyzed the heat index (HI) for every hour of the last 14 years (2012–2025) in Kuwait. Heat Index is the combined metric incorporating ambient air temperature and relative humidity (RH) – or the ‘‘feels like’’ temperature. Specifically, we used the US National Weather Service (NWS) HI and classified three risk-threshold systems: HI classified according to Kuwait Oil Company “KOC thresholds”, HI classified according to Saudi Arabia Aramco “Aramco thresholds”, and HI classified according to the NWS “NWS thresholds”. We divided hours and days into four HI category ranges (Extreme Danger, Danger, Extreme Caution, and Caution). Results show a positive linear trend for the annual minimum, average, and maximum temperature and RH during the study period. The mean annual numbers of days of ‘Maximum’ HI levels in the ‘Danger’ category were (119.71 (32%), 96.78 (26.51%), 101.64 (27.84%)) for KOC, Aramco, and NWS thresholds, respectively. The total annual number of days of ‘Maximum’ HI levels exceeded the ‘Extreme Danger’ category for KOC (≥ 46 °C), Aramco (≥ 52 °C), and NWS (≥ 54 °C) by 282 days (77%), 29 (7.9%), and 5 days (1.36%), respectively. The year 2025 demonstrated the highest number of days on which daily maximum HI exceeded the ‘Extreme Danger’, particularly in August. A total of 17 h exceeded the NWS threshold (≥ 54 °C), and the hours ranged from as early as 9 am to 4 pm. Moreover, HI as high as 52 °C was observed, in some instances, as early as 7 am and as late as 7 pm and midnight. This study provides a basis for heat stress extremities in hot arid environments, especially in the era of climate change. Temporal variability in thermal stress is essential to understand for both public and occupational health.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148811529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limitations of employing a unified physiological equivalent temperature scale for assessing thermal comfort in Taiwan’s Cwa urban climate","authors":"Kang-Ting Tsai,&nbsp;Ning-Shiang Chen,&nbsp;Jia-Yu Jhang","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03294-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03294-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Taiwan’s national reference for outdoor thermal comfort assessment originates from a single non-urban site in a Cfa zone, whereas the country’s most heat-vulnerable metropolitan areas lie in the Cwa zone. Conventional thermal comfort evaluations rely on single standardized scales, which may not fully reflect variation across different climates and outdoor contexts. This study employed the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) thermal index as a thermal comfort indicator and established a regionally adaptive and mPET-based thermal perception scale suitable for Taiwan’s Cwa climate. Field studies were conducted in two representative Cwa sites—Zhongxing New Village and the Central Taiwan Science Park—and encompassed seven outdoor spaces with distinct spatial functions and microclimatic characteristics. Microclimatic measurements, questionnaire surveys, and user count observations were considered to examine the relationships among thermal conditions, thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and spatial behavior. The results indicate that a neutral temperature for these sites is 23.3 °C mPET and that a 90% acceptable thermal comfort range is between 21.4 and 25.8 °C mPET. Behavioral thermal adaptation, including shade-seeking and time-shifting behaviors, was also observed in this study. In addition, contextual comparison with PET thresholds reported for other climate zones indicated the regional specificity of the neutral temperatures and physiologically equivalent temperature classifications derived for Taiwan’s Cwa climate, suggesting that a single physiologically equivalent temperature scale may be insufficient for nationwide evaluations. The study findings highlight a need for climate-sensitive and behaviorally informed thermal comfort assessments. The results offer initial empirical support to aid with climate adaptation strategies and outdoor space planning in humid subtropical urban environments, with further validation across additional Cwa sites warranted.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03294-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148783164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-objective optimization study of compact kitchens based on coordinated ventilation strategy","authors":"Zhihang Shen,&nbsp;Shunyu Zhang,&nbsp;Lihui Zhu,&nbsp;Xiangrui Zhao,&nbsp;Zhenlei Chen","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03263-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03263-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To enhance thermal comfort in compact kitchens of multi-family residential units, This article proves that simple mechanical ventilation has limited effectiveness and proposes an optimization strategy that integrates mechanical air supply and natural ventilation. First, a high-accuracy (&gt; 88%) kitchen simulation model is established by fitting the kitchen temperature variation function and eliminating non-essential factors, providing a reliable theoretical foundation for ventilation optimization. Based on this model, the range hood structure is further optimized to improve pollutant capture performance. The results indicate that when the smoke baffle angle is adjusted to 178°, the CO₂ concentration in the kitchen, except for the cooking area, remains below 1000 ppm, effectively improving air quality and reducing pollutant accumulation risk. However, under purely natural ventilation conditions, thermal comfort for cooking personnel remains suboptimal. To address this, an orthogonal experimental method is employed to investigate ventilation performance under different collaborative air supply conditions. Additionally, statistical methods are introduced to assign weights to key indicators, including CO₂ capture efficiency, weighted PMV(Predicted Mean Vote), air age, and ADPI(Air Distribution Performance Index), thereby constructing a comprehensive evaluation index S for quantifying kitchen thermal comfort. Under the final optimized collaborative air supply condition, the weighted PMV value for human thermal sensitivity is reduced by 92.23%, CO₂ capture efficiency is increased by 35.07%, ADPI is improved by 15%, and air age is optimized by 18.41%. Furthermore, compared to the high airflow ventilation scheme, the optimized scheme reduces annual energy consumption by 1.08 kWh under the assumption of 1-h daily operation. Experimentally validated, this study offers practical guidance for designing range hood baffles and energy-efficient ventilation in compact kitchens, and provides a useful index for evaluating indoor health and thermal comfort.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148782450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weather data sources influence predictive performance of disease forecasting models","authors":"Theophilus Abonyi Mensah,&nbsp;Neil White,&nbsp;Vivian Rincón-Flórez,&nbsp;Olufemi A. Akinsanmi","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03285-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03285-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Weather data from fine- and coarse-scale sources are increasingly used in disease forecasting models to support management decisions, yet comparisons between fine- and coarse-scale sources remain limited, largely due to the difficulty of acquiring fine-scale datasets across locations and seasons. Differences among weather sources can influence model outputs, resulting in variation in predictive performance and the timing of management decisions. This study evaluated four weather data sources, grouped as fine-scale (in-canopy and on-farm stations) and coarse-scale (regional gridded and point-based data from SILO, and Bureau of Meteorology, BOM, stations), across two production regions in Australia. Macadamia orchards were used as a case study to assess spatial variability in 10 weather variables associated with fungal infection over three seasons (2022–2024). Heterogeneous trends and associations were identified among the weather sources, primarily driven by differences in minimum temperature and minimum relative humidity. On-farm and SILO data showed high spatial variability, whereas in-canopy and BOM data were comparatively stable. Predictive performance of disease models based on each weather source was evaluated using airborne conidia dynamics for the fungal pathogens <i>Botrytis</i>, <i>Cladosporium</i> and <i>Neopestalotiopsis</i>/<i>Pestalotiopsis</i>, which cause flower blight in macadamia. In-canopy sources produced significantly lower predictive performance (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) than BOM sources, while on-farm, SILO and BOM sources showed comparable performance (<i>p</i> &gt; 0.05) across all pathogens. These findings indicate that the choice of weather data source, rather than spatial scale alone, is critical for reliable disease forecasting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03285-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A simulation-based assessment of future heatwave impacts on building energy demand and outdoor thermal comfort in hot-humid cities","authors":"Jiahao Yang,&nbsp;Yini Fan,&nbsp;Jialiang Guo,&nbsp;Xiang Zhang,&nbsp;Zhuotong Wu,&nbsp;Weien Xie,&nbsp;Tongye Guo,&nbsp;Zhaosong Fang,&nbsp;Jun Lu","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03296-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03296-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the increasing frequency of extreme heatwave events driven by climate change, urban residential areas in hot-humid regions are facing severe thermal environmental and energy challenges. To comprehensively assess heat risks and building performance under future extreme heatwave scenarios, this study developed localized future extreme heatwave conditions for the Guangzhou region using downscaled climate data from four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. By integrating field measurements, ENVI-met and Energyplus simulations, the study systematically analyzed the outdoor thermal environments and building performance across five typologically diverse residential areas (LCZ 1–3). The results indicate that: (1) Future extreme heatwaves will drastically elevate outdoor heat stress, with the most severe scenario (SSP5-8.5) increasing the peak Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) by over 11 °C and expanding the spatial extent of strong heat stress areas to cover over 95% of sites with low green cover; (2) Indoor thermal environments will deteriorate significantly, with peak indoor temperatures exceeding 36.7 °C and early morning temperatures already above 32 °C, indicating insufficient nighttime cooling and heightened heat health risks; (3) Building cooling energy demand is projected to surge, with daily total consumption increasing by 6.1–8.5% (SSP1-2.6), 26.0–26.8% (SSP2-4.5), and 10.9–14.7% (SSP3-7.0) by the end of the century. The findings reveal the distinct thermal vulnerability of different urban forms and underscore the urgent need for differentiated, context-specific heat mitigation strategies to enhance urban resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}