International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

{"title":"Impact of heat on respiratory health: Age- and sex-specific risks in a nationwide Korean study (2014–2019)","authors":"Joonho Ahn,&nbsp;Jongmin Oh,&nbsp;Ho-Jang Kwon,&nbsp;Hyungryul Lim,&nbsp;Jonghyuk Choi,&nbsp;Sanghyuk Bae,&nbsp;Kyoung-Nam Kim,&nbsp;Mi-Ji Kim,&nbsp;Jong-Hun Kim,&nbsp;Youn-Hee Lim","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03242-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03242-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Respiratory diseases pose a major global public health challenge. With climate change contributing to more frequent and intense heat events, understanding the effects of high temperatures on respiratory health is increasingly critical. However, existing evidence remains inconsistent. A nationwide time-series study was conducted to evaluate the association between daily maximum temperatures and emergency department (ED) visits for cause-specific respiratory diseases across 16 regions in South Korea during the warm season (April–September) from 2014 to 2019. Generalized additive models with quasi-Poisson regressions were applied, adjusting for long-term trends, humidity, day of the week, and air pollutants. Subgroup analyses were performed by age and sex. Each 1 °C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a significant increase in ED visits for total respiratory diseases (relative risk [RR] = 1.008; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.006–1.009). Stronger associations were observed for pneumonia (RR = 1.014; 95% CI: 1.012–1.016), COPD (RR = 1.010; 95% CI: 1.007–1.012), asthma (RR = 1.009; 95% CI: 1.007–1.011), and upper respiratory infections (RR = 1.005; 95% CI: 1.003–1.007). Males, children (&lt; 15 years), and the elderly (≥ 65 years) were particularly vulnerable. High ambient temperatures are significantly associated with increased ED visits for respiratory diseases. These findings provide important evidence to guide governmental decision-making in developing heatwave preparedness policies, including targeted interventions, early warning systems, and healthcare resource planning for vulnerable populations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03242-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to: Effects of street morphological features on outdoor thermal comfort in traditional villages of Southern Anhui, China","authors":"Xingguang Zhang,&nbsp;Zao Li,&nbsp;Taoyuan Zhang,&nbsp;Yulu Chen","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03251-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03251-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148222452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cool and safe walks: heat stress threshold for domestic dogs living in hot and sunny regions","authors":"Pavlos Vinícius do Nascimento,&nbsp;Edilson Paes Saraiva,&nbsp;Tarsys Noan Silva Veríssimo,&nbsp;Jacinara Hody Gurgel Morais Leite,&nbsp;Luciana Diniz Rola,&nbsp;Aline Cristina Sant’Anna,&nbsp;Walter Esfrain Pereira,&nbsp;Vinícius de França Carvalho Fonsêca","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03236-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03236-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study proposes heat stress thresholds for dogs during outdoor walks in a hot and sunny tropical region. A total of five mixed-breed dogs had their body temperatures (from their coat, skin, paw pad and rectum) and respiratory rate measured at rest, during 12 min of walking, and during 20 min of recuperation, when water intake was recorded. A total of 135 walks were undertaken throughout the night and daytime phases, thereby exposing dogs to levels of black-globe temperature (BGT) ranging between 19 and 50 °C. Dogs kept their rectal temperature within a narrow range (38—39 °C), without signs of hyperthermia. However, walking with the dogs when the BGT was above 35 ºC resulted in substantial increments in hair-coat temperature (+ 20.5 ºC), skin temperature (+ 7.2 ºC), respiratory rate (increasing markedly, from approximately 47 to 374 breaths min⁻¹) and water intake (+ 215 mL) compared to walks at a BGT below 30 ºC. The set of dogs’ responses exposed to different levels of radiant heat load was summarized into a single variable, the thermal stress index (TSI), with values ranging from 90 to 220. The best prediction of TSI accounted combined effects of air temperature and thermal radiation (<i>R</i>^<i>2</i> = 0.92). Maximum respiratory rate was recorded at TSI of 170 (Plateau = 287 breath min⁻¹ or 4.78 breath s⁻¹), and maximum skin temperature at TSI of 190 (Plateau = 38 ºC). In conclusion, walking dogs when TSI exceeds 170 should be approached with caution, particularly during prolonged or repeated exposure, as panting appears to become less effective beyond this threshold.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03236-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148215803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prenatal stress improves the ability of neonatal lambs to maintain body surface temperature during periods of cold exposure","authors":"Lea Labeur,&nbsp;Alison H. Small,&nbsp;Sabine Schmoelzl","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03243-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03243-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Exposure to cold and hypothermia is a significant threat to newborn lamb survival in extensive systems, and the ability to thermoregulate is essential for improved survivability. Lambs exhibit enhanced thermogenic abilities and increased brown fat deposition when ewes experience cold during late-pregnancy. This study evaluated the effects of various prenatal stressors on newborn lamb thermogenesis through three experiments. Experiment 1 examined the impact of mid-pregnancy shearing and wetting on lamb thermogenesis. Experiment 2 involved transporting and cold-exposing late-pregnancy ewes. Experiment 3 combined stressors like yarding, transport, wetting, and cold exposure in mid- or late-pregnancy ewes. Four-hour-old lambs were subjected to a 1-hour cold challenge during which infrared thermal images from the dorsal midline were taken every 10 min. Lambs from ewes shorn and wetted during mid-pregnancy tended to have higher body surface temperatures than those handled during mid-pregnancy (Experiment 1; <i>P =</i> 0.073) and they also maintained body surface temperature better during the cold challenge (Experiment 1; <i>P =</i> 0.025). Lambs from ewes exposed to late-pregnancy combined stressors showed higher radiated body surface temperatures than both mid-pregnancy stressed and control lambs (Experiment 3; <i>P &lt;</i> 0.05) while late-pregnancy stress group lambs maintained radiated body surface temperature longer than both mid-pregnancy stressed and control groups lambs (Experiment 3; <i>P &lt;</i> 0.01). The study concludes that cold exposure combined with husbandry stressors leads to differences in lamb thermogenesis, with mechanisms varying based on the timing of stressors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03243-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148215787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of balneotherapy on drug consumption: a systematic review and an economic evaluation of drug deprescribing","authors":"Jean-Louis Montastruc,&nbsp;Claude-Eugène Bouvier","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03250-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03250-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Some previous studies have suggested that balneotherapy could be associated with a decrease in drug consumption. No study has investigated pharmacoeconomic consequences in terms of monetary savings. The present study was performed to evaluate potential savings (according to societal perspective) associated with decreased drug consumption resulting from spa treatments using randomized clinical trials (RCT) identified after a systematic review. Among 48 RCT, 8 trials investigating rheumatological diseases (low back or shoulder pain, osteoarthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, fibromyalgia), were included in the economic evaluation of direct costs (€) using 2024 data of drug reimbursements according to French health insurance data. Savings calculated related to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs’) decrease were between €0.05 million and €1.03 million at 6 months (mean value: €504.900) for the 441,776 patients who underwent rheumatology-oriented spa treatment in France in 2024 versus controls. For analgesics, values ranged from €0.73 million to around €2.31 million (mean value: €1,547.400). Despite several limitations that could not be overlooked (heterogeneity of studied populations, interventions, duration, outcome measures), the study showsfor the first timethat decreased drug consumption resulting from balneotherapy is associated with important savings regarding NSAIDs and, to a greater extent, analgesics. Balneotherapy is a unique opportunity for deprescribing, enabling both significant monetary savings for national health insurance, complementary health insurances and patients, while preventing adverse drug reactions or decreasing physiotherapy sessions or hospitalizations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148215753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of predictive models for simulating vegetative and reproductive phenology in European hazelnut trees (Corylus avellana L.)","authors":"Angélica Rosales,&nbsp;Samuel Ortega-Farías,&nbsp;Daniel de la Fuente-Sáiz,&nbsp;Rodrigo Morales-Zárate,&nbsp;William Campillay-Llanos,&nbsp;Eloy Suarez,&nbsp;María José Lispuerguer","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03245-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03245-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In Chile, European hazelnut production has expanded substantially in Mediterranean and temperate regions in recent years. However, these areas are experiencing increasing temperature variability and more frequent heat waves due to climate change. Such climatic changes modify tree phenology, altering the onset and progression of endodormancy and ecodormancy, which ultimately affects nut quality and yield. In this context, phenological models are essential for developing decision-support tools in hazelnut orchard management, including pest and disease control, irrigation, and fertilization. The study aimed to develop logistic and monomolecular models based on growing degree days (GDD) to simulate vegetative (VPS) and reproductive (RPS) phenological stages of European hazelnut (Tonda di Giffoni’ and ‘Barcelona’) under Mediterranean and temperate agroclimatic conditions. Additionally, a stochastic framework was implemented to evaluate uncertainty in phenological predictions. Phenological observations, based on the Giardini Italian phenological stages (GFI), together with agroclimatological data, were collected from three commercial orchards in the Maule, Ñuble, and Araucanía Regions of Chile during four consecutive growing seasons (2019–2020, 2020–2021, 2021–2022, and 2022–2023). For the development of the GDD-based models, the GFI code was transformed into a numerical phenological scale by assigning consecutive integers for mathematical representation. For both cultivars, the logistic and monomolecular models based on GDD for simulating the phenological scale (PS) achieved coefficients of determination (R²) between 0.80 and 0.94. Validation further demonstrated that the phenological models predicted PS with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 0.43 to 1.08 and model efficiency (EF) values between 0.94 and 0.99. Finally, the stochastic approach indicated the range of potential outcomes that can occur due to random or unpredictable errors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148203570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of air pollution and meteorological factors on hematological exacerbation phenotypes in patients presenting to the emergency department with COPD exacerbation","authors":"Erdal Karataş,&nbsp;Nurettin Özgür Doğan,&nbsp;Sibel Balcı,&nbsp;İbrahim Ulaş Özturan,&nbsp;Elif Yaka,&nbsp;Serkan Yılmaz,&nbsp;Murat Pekdemir","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03247-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03247-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To evaluate the short-term effects and lagged temporal patterns of air pollutants and meteorological factors on hematological exacerbation phenotypes in patients presenting to the emergency department with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. Patients who presented to a tertiary emergency department with COPD exacerbation between April 2022 and April 2023 were retrospectively reviewed. Exacerbations were classified as eosinophilic, neutrophilic, or mixed-type based on admission complete blood counts. Daily air pollutant concentrations (PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, SO₂, NO₂, CO, O₃) and meteorological parameters were obtained from official monitoring stations. Day-level associations between environmental variables and phenotype-specific daily exacerbation counts were analyzed using quasi-Poisson distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and a time-stratified case-crossover design (lag 0–3 days). Of all exacerbations (n = 354), 65.8% were neutrophilic, 20.3% mixed-type, and 13.8% eosinophilic. The neutrophilic phenotype was associated with the most severe clinical presentation. No significant environmental association was identified for the overall COPD exacerbation count. In the eosinophilic phenotype, same-day exposure to CO and SO₂ was associated with increased exacerbation risk (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.06–1.82 and RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.03–1.43, respectively). In the mixed-type phenotype, higher humidity was positively associated with exacerbation counts, whereas lower wind speed was associated with decreased counts. In the neutrophilic phenotype, an inverse association with O₃ observed in the DLNM was not confirmed in the case-crossover analysis. COPD exacerbations do not appear homogeneous with respect to environmental triggers; the eosinophilic phenotype showed clearer associations with gaseous pollutants, whereas the mixed-type phenotype showed associations with meteorological conditions. The absence of associations in the overall population supports the value of phenotype-based environmental risk assessment. These findings may contribute to the development of phenotype-oriented environmental warning strategies in COPD management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03247-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148203572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Significant impact of soil moisture on the response of spring phenology to extreme heat and drought in northern China","authors":"Xinyue Gao,&nbsp;Zexing Tao,&nbsp;Junhu Dai","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03246-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03246-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global warming is expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle and further increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate such as extreme heat and droughts. However, how climate extremes affect the start of the growing season (SOS), a key phenological phase, remains unclear. In this study, we explored the response of SOS to extreme heat and extreme drought across northern China based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) during 2001–2018, and further investigated how background environmental conditions affect SOS responses. Our results showed that extreme heat and extreme drought tended to delay SOS in a large proportion of northern China, and this delaying effect has intensified over the past two decades. The responses of SOS to extreme heat and drought were closely related to soil moisture in steppes and meadows, with the delaying effect of extreme heat and drought on SOS weakened in drier regions but strengthened in wetter regions. This pattern is associated with the nonlinear effects of soil moisture, which alleviates drought stress under drier conditions but elevates the risk of freezing injury under wetter conditions. Our results emphasize the importance of background environmental conditions in regulating vegetation responses to climate extremes and have substantial implications for ecosystem protection and management under increasing climate extremes in the future.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148196793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heat stress variation exerts a more pronounced effect than vapor pressure deficit on maize yield in Northeast China","authors":"Shuang Sun,&nbsp;Yanxia Zhao,&nbsp;Chunyi Wang,&nbsp;Yanling Song,&nbsp;Dasui Li,&nbsp;Nan Zhang,&nbsp;Qing Sun,&nbsp;Dingrong Wu,&nbsp;Yi Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03227-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03227-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Northeast China (NEC) stands as one of the dominant maize-growing regions in China, playing a pivotal role in national food security. Maize is highly susceptible to inter-annual variations in both mean and extreme climate conditions. Identifying the most relevant climate variables that constrain maize yield is crucial for designing tailored management strategies for rainfed maize production in vulnerable environments. Here we compiled databases encompassing long-term observed maize phenology, yield, and weather data from agro-meteorological experimental stations in NEC spanning the period 1981–2022 for analysis. Using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, we explored the impacts of mean climate anomalies, temperature-related extreme anomalies, and temperature-moisture compound stresses (TMCS) anomalies on maize yield during different maize growing periods. Results showed that the BRT model explained a large proportion of variability in maize yield, with cross-validation correlations ranging from 0.78 to 0.88, indicating that BRT method was robust for exploring the impact of climate change on maize yield. Anomalies in heat growing degree days (HDD) during the maize growing period, particularly in the reproductive phase, were identified as the most significant climatic factor negatively affecting maize yield in NEC, followed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies. HDD anomalies were strongly correlated with VPD anomalies, indicating that extremely high temperatures and high VPD occurred simultaneously and were common during the maize growing period in NEC. The impact of TMCS anomalies on maize yields were significantly more pronounced in Heilongjiang (19.5%) compared to Jilin (8.5%) and Liaoning (9.4%). These findings highlight the critical role of heat stress variations in affecting crop yield, and provide crucial insights for the development of province-specific and effective management strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148196805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating google trends and hybrid statistical-machine learning models for dengue surveillance in an inland vietnamese province: a 94-month evaluation (2013–2021) with search-signal anomaly screening","authors":"Dang Anh Tuan,&nbsp;Pham Vu Nhat Uyen","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03241-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03241-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Dengue transmission in inland Southeast Asia shows strong seasonality and short-term surges that challenge timely public-health response. We assessed whether province-level Google search activity can support short-horizon dengue monitoring in Dong Nai, Vietnam. Monthly reported dengue cases from July 2013 to April 2021 were aligned with the Google Trends index (GTI) for “Sốt xuất huyết”. Models were evaluated using leakage-free rolling-origin expanding-window cross-validation with 3-month validation blocks. We compared a negative binomial (NB) autoregressive baseline, NB models incorporating GTI, tree-based machine-learning models using the same covariates, and a simple NB–random-forest ensemble. Predictive performance was assessed using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), R², and discrimination for 95th-percentile outbreak exceedance. Cross-correlation peaked at lag 0, indicating that GTI functioned primarily as a contemporaneous nowcasting signal rather than a long-lead predictor. NB models incorporating GTI showed competitive calibration, while boosted tree models achieved the lowest point-estimate errors; XGBoost achieved RMSE ≈ 40.95 and R² ≈ 0.861 compared with RMSE ≈ 45.23 and R² ≈ 0.823 for NB with GTI. Adding GTI to the autoregressive NB baseline reduced RMSE by 11.77%, but the 95% confidence interval crossed zero, indicating modest and statistically non-significant incremental gain. Search-signal anomaly screening suggested that GTI spikes largely coincided with epidemic peaks and did not clearly inflate out-of-sample errors. Overall, GTI provides operational value for dengue nowcasting and alert triage in inland provinces, while future systems should integrate climate, vector, mobility, and media-monitoring data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148196873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}