International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

{"title":"Environmental triggers of acute Stanford type A aortic dissection: The roles of ambient temperature, air pollution, and workplace thermal conditions","authors":"Yeni Li,&nbsp;Ning Niu,&nbsp;Ling Zhu,&nbsp;Manli Wu,&nbsp;Xiaoxu Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaotong Tang","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03187-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03187-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the short-term associations and potential long-term causal effects of environmental temperature and air pollution exposures on the risk of acute Stanford Type A Aortic Dissection (AAAD). We conducted a time-series analysis in Shenyang, Northeast China, using daily meteorological and air quality data matched with hospital admissions for AAAD from Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University. Daily mean temperature ranged from approximately − 20 °C to 20 °C, while PM_2.5 concentrations exhibited episodic spikes up to 600 µg/m³. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) evaluated lagged exposure - response relationships over a 28-day period. The DLNM revealed a pronounced inverse J-shaped relationship between mean temperature and AAAD risk: exposure to cold temperatures below 0 °C was associated with a significantly elevated relative risk (RR), with persistent effects noted from lag 5 to lag 20 days. PM_2.5 exhibited a U-shaped association with AAAD, with the highest risks observed at concentrations near 250 µg/m³ within 0–4 days post-exposure. Joint exposure surfaces demonstrated complex interplay between cold and particulate matter on AAAD incidence. To explore potential long-term causal effects, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses using genetic instruments for workplace temperature conditions and for chronic exposure to air pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and NO₂). The primary inverse-variance weighted analysis showed non-significant associations for genetically instrumented “often cold” workplace exposure (e.g., OR = 0.23; 95% CI: 0.0004–142.62; <i>P</i> = 0.655) and likewise provided no robust evidence for causal effects of long-term PM2.5, PM₁₀ or NO₂ exposure on AAAD risk, with wide confidence intervals encompassing the null. These findings highlight significant short-term associations of cold and high pollution exposures with AAAD incidence, whereas long-term causal links inferred from genetic proxies for workplace temperature and air pollutants remain unconfirmed and require further investigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147830043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating climate scenarios and thermal welfare thresholds to project future heat stress risk in beef cattle","authors":"Giampiero Grossi,&nbsp;Andrea Vitali,&nbsp;Nicola Lacetera,&nbsp;Chiara Rossi,&nbsp;Nicola Lacetera","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03217-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03217-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global demand for beef is projected to rise, coinciding with increasing climate change-related threats to animal welfare and productivity. Heat stress represents a major risk, impairing cattle health, growth, and reproductive efficiency. This study employed the Heat-Load Index, a composite measure of temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, to classify heat stress into five categories. Using high-resolution climate projections from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 archive and a Multi-Model Ensemble of 27 global circulation models, we assessed heat stress risk for beef cattle worldwide under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) through 2100. Results indicated a progressive expansion of severe and extreme heat stress categories, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, with increasing encroachment into temperate zones by the late century. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-smart livestock strategies, including genetic selection, improved housing, and adaptive management, to safeguard animal welfare and sustain global beef production.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03217-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147829666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent trajectories of biometeorology in the Global South: a systematic review of biometeorology research in the International Journal of Biometeorology","authors":"Ariel S. Prinsloo,&nbsp;Claire Gallacher,&nbsp;Felix F. Adebayo,&nbsp;Betty Adegebo,&nbsp;Adnan Arshad,&nbsp;Shreya Banerjee,&nbsp;Elizabeth Carr,&nbsp;Thea J. Earnest,&nbsp;Cassia Holtz,&nbsp;Carmen Kganane,&nbsp;Alexi M. Marinaki,&nbsp;Chanice Mavudzi,&nbsp;L. Palesa Molefe,&nbsp;Ogone Motlogeloa,&nbsp;Nkosi Muse,&nbsp;Amanda Ndiweni,&nbsp;Leonardo B. Prado,&nbsp;Pippa J. Pryor,&nbsp;Sarah J. Roffe,&nbsp;Mahdieh Saed,&nbsp;Raghid Shehayeb,&nbsp;Adriaan J. van der Walt,&nbsp;Mukhtaar Waja,&nbsp;Michael J. Allen,&nbsp;Jennifer M. Fitchett,&nbsp;Peter J. Crank","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03213-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03213-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Literature reviews have become increasingly prominent in scientific discourse; however, few have critically examined the geographic distribution of research, particularly in the field of biometeorology, where studies remain disproportionately concentrated in the Global North. Building on previous regional reviews and special issues, this paper critically examines geographic disparities in publication trends, authorship, and methodological approaches to aid in identifying challenges and opportunities for equitable and justified future research. Using a PRISMA-style framework, 591 empirical studies conducted across 147 Global South countries were identified from a total of 3,046 publications in the International Journal of Biometeorology (IJBM) between 2000 and 2024. The review reveals a steady increase in contributions from the Global South over time, but highlights persistent gaps in representation, especially in author affiliation and research leadership. Thematic and methodological analyses highlight the diversity and innovation present in Global South contexts, while also revealing structural barriers to equitable participation in the field. This work advocates for more inclusive research practices and enhanced institutional support to bridge the divide between the Global North and South, fostering a more representative and collaborative future for biometeorology.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03213-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147829766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hybrid machine learning approaches outperform mechanistic models of bloom timing in Eastern Redbud, Cercis canadensis","authors":"T. Mohammad,&nbsp;R. P. Guralnick,&nbsp;J. A. Santiago-Blay,&nbsp;T. M. Crimmins","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03197-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03197-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Predicting the timing of flowering has utility both in climate change planning and practical applications. Eastern Redbud (<i>Cercis canadensis</i>), a charismatic spring-flowering tree found predominantly in the eastern USA, has long captured public attention, yet robust models of its bloom timing are lacking. Here, we aim to understand flowering onset dynamics of <i>C. canadensis</i>, a challenge given potential for local adaptation and plasticity across its range. We utilized a hybrid phenology modeling framework that integrates a mechanistic chill–heat framework with a machine-learning correction layer. We expected that this integrative model would better capture non-linear dynamics in flowering onset across its range. Using observations of bloom onset maintained by the USA National Phenology Network collected across the tree’s range, we parameterized a process-based model incorporating chilling, forcing, and photoperiod cues, adjusted for latitude. This model predicted bloom dates with a mean absolute error of 7.3 days. Incorporating a machine-learning correction layer yielded a cross-validated mean error of 6.1 days, with improved representation of local anomalies and interannual variability. Out-of-sample validation using observations from herbarium and iNaturalist indicated the hybrid model retained predictive skill across contemporary and historical contexts. Our results also revealed that trees at higher latitudes require greater chilling and less forcing to flower than southern individuals. These results highlight the value of hybrid approaches that combine known extrinsic drivers linked to physiology with more flexible machine learning approaches, providing improved species-wide generalization. These analyses showcase both integrative modeling and integrative validation approaches to advance phenological forecasting.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03197-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147829663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association of atmospheric temperature and PM2.5 co-exposure with embryonic development and pregnancy outcomes in IVF/ICSI","authors":"Nana Wang,&nbsp;Yongyue Chen,&nbsp;Xuezhong Shi,&nbsp;Xiaocan Jia,&nbsp;Yan He,&nbsp;Genhong Mao,&nbsp;Yongli Yang","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03216-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03216-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To investigate the association between atmospheric temperature and embryonic development and pregnancy outcomes in women undergoing IVF/ICSI, and to evaluate the interaction between temperature and PM_2.5. This study included 3747 patients undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment at one tertiary hospital in Henan Province from January 2015 to August 2023. Daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and PM_2.5 concentrations were sourced from publicly available datasets. Temperature exposure was evaluated across seven time windows, with average levels calculated for each. Outcome measures encompassed oocyte and embryo quality indicators and pregnancy outcomes. Compared with the reference temperature range, exposure to low temperature dTimes New Romanuring Period C (from the start of gonadotropin treatment to oocyte retrieval) was associated with − 2.95 (95% CI: -5.72, -0.10)% decrease in the number of oofcytes retrieved. Exposure to high temperature during the same period was associated with − 5.39 (95% CI: -9.60, -0.98)% decrease in the number of high-quality embryos. High temperature exposure during Period C, D (from the start of gonadotropin treatment to embryo transfer), and E (from efmbryo transfer to HCG testing) was associated with decreased risk of live birth, with ORs (95% CI) of 0.46 (0.26, 0.79), 0.54 (0.31, 0.96), and 0.36 (0.21, 0.62), respectively. Combined exposure to high temperature and PM_2.5 during Period B was associated with decreased numbers of oocytes retrieved, cleaved embryos, and high-quality embryos. High and low temperatures can impair oocyte and embryo quality and pregnancy outcomes in IVF/ICSI patients, while combined exposure to high temperature and PM_2.5 may worsen these adverse effects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prospective analysis of spatiotemporal variations in chill during winter, heat accumulation for flowering and spring frost in fruit trees in northeast Spain","authors":"Eduardo Pérez Sosa,&nbsp;Roberto Serrano-Notivoli,&nbsp;Helder Fraga,&nbsp;Miguel Ángel Saz,&nbsp;María Luz Hernández-Navarro","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03214-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03214-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability, and ongoing warming is expected to modify the thermal conditions controlling fruit tree phenology and production. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of winter chilling, spring heat accumulation, and spring frost probability across fruit-growing areas in Aragón (northeast Spain) using a regional, high-resolution agroclimatic approach. Chill portions (CP), growing degree hours (GDH), and spring frost probability occurrence (SFPO) were computed from daily gridded maximum and minimum temperature data at 1 km² spatial resolution. Agroclimatic indicators were derived using statistical, non-experimental methods based on established chilling and forcing models and empirical temperature thresholds. Recent historical variability was characterized using overlapping 30-year historical climate periods while future climate conditions were assessed using daily temperature projections from an ensemble of 18 regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX), dynamically downscaled from global climate models and bias-corrected. Projections were analyzed for a historical reference period (1971–2000) and under the intermediate and high emissions scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid-century (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) periods. Climate projections at ~ 5 km spatial resolution were interpolated to 1 km and bias-corrected using Empirical Quantile Mapping with high-resolution observational data as reference. Changes in CP and GDH distributions were quantified using spatial differences and standardized anomalies relative to historical conditions, and indicators were extracted at the location of existing fruit orchards. Results indicate that effective winter chilling remains within broad ranges compatible with fruit production across all scenarios, with persistent spatial contrasts between western and eastern sectors. In contrast, spring heat accumulation shows a strong and spatially coherent increase, particularly in low-elevation and eastern areas, indicating an increasing influence of spring temperatures on phenological dynamics. Although future scenarios project a substantial reduction in the probability of frost occurrence after early March, increasing heat accumulation may advance phenological development, potentially shifting frost exposure to earlier periods in late winter. Overall, the results indicate that agroclimatic conditions in Aragón are strongly structured by regional climatic gradients, and that climate change is likely to intensify spatial contrasts between colder and warmer production areas rather than producing uniform changes across the region. These results provide a regional agroclimatic framework that can support adaptation planning and the long-term management of fruit production under climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03214-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147796776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physiological, morphological hair, and blood parameters of the goat group genetic Azul in the semiarid","authors":"Jaciara Ribeiro Miranda,&nbsp;Roberto Germano Costa,&nbsp;Maria Norma Ribeiro,&nbsp;Edilson Paes Saraiva,&nbsp;Valquíria Cordeiro da Silva,&nbsp;Neila Lidiany Ribeiro","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03195-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03195-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the climatic seasons on physiological, morphological, and hormonal parameters in female goats of the Brazilian Azul genetic group. Thirty females were used in the rainy season and thirty in the dry season, all non-lactating and non-pregnant, aged between 1 and 2 years. The data were analyzed using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and the General Linear Models procedure. Air temperature, black globe temperature, and relative humidity were measured by an automated weather station. Respiratory rate (RR), heart rate (HR), and surface temperature (TS) showed significant differences between periods and seasons, whereas rectal temperature did not vary. Animals in the rainy season had longer hair compared to the dry season, with a significant difference (<i>P</i> = 0.0258). In the erythrogram, significant seasonal differences were observed for all variables analyzed: hematocrit (<i>P</i> = 0.0258), hemoglobin (<i>P</i> = 0.0365), red blood cell count (<i>P</i> = 0.0269), mean corpuscular volume (<i>P</i> = 0.0258), and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (<i>P</i> = 0.0157).The animals had a lower respiratory rate and greater heat dissipation capacity during the dry season, allowing them to maintain rectal temperature. Morphological and hormonal (T3, T4, and cortisol) parameters change across the various climatic seasons.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03195-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing walking experiences for shading based gendered perceptions of thermal comfort in a hot city","authors":"Huiming Liu,&nbsp;Wensen Huang,&nbsp;Georgia Butina Watson,&nbsp;Yongxi Gong,&nbsp;Chaoyi Cui,&nbsp;Yueyang Han","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03207-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03207-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Urban pedestrian environments shape subjective thermal comfort under intensifying heat stress; however, the pathway through which shading translates into walking experience remains insufficiently specified, particularly regarding potential gender heterogeneity. This study examines how perceived shade quality relates to subjective thermal perception, walking satisfaction, and duration of public-space use in Macau. A mixed-method design integrates climate-informed solar-access screening and on-site surveys, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling is applied to test a perception-led mediation structure with female–male multi-group comparison. Results indicate that shade quality contributes to walking satisfaction primarily through subjective thermal perception, while duration-related effects are more contingent. Multi-group tests show that the core behavioural paths are statistically comparable across groups, whereas gender-sensitive differences are detected in the perceptual linkage between shade quality and subjective thermal perception and, more clearly, in the associations between subjective thermal perception and concurrent microclimatic indicators (relative humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation). These findings support heat-responsive shading strategies that prioritise perceptual thermal relief through shade continuity while providing microclimatic options that accommodate heterogeneous regulation under hot-humid exposure.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Topographic and climatic drivers of elevation-dependent land surface phenology shifts across Nepal’s ecoregions","authors":"Jeevan Prakash Katel,&nbsp;Uttam Babu Shrestha,&nbsp;Suraj Joshi","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03209-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03209-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Land Surface Phenology (LSP)—the satellite-derived characterization of seasonal vegetation dynamics—is shifting under climate change across local to global scales. Yet fine-scale, ecoregion-level LSP assessments remain absent for Nepal despite its heterogeneous topography and high vulnerability to climate change. We analyzed trends of four LSP metrics: start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), length of season (LOS), and peak of season (POS) across Nepal’s nine ecoregions using 24 years (2001–2024) of MODIS EVI data (~ 250 m) and evaluated the topographic and climatic drivers of the observed trends. SOS advanced in temperate, subtropical, and tropical ecoregions (5.63–12.24% of pixels) but delayed in alpine and subalpine ecoregions (~ 4% of pixels). EOS delayed across eight of nine ecoregions (4.41–6.50% of pixels), LOS increased in eight ecoregions (4.69–18.18% of pixels), and POS increased universally (6.92–37.49% of pixels), with the strongest trends in lower-elevation ecoregions. Elevation exerted the dominant topographic control on LSP trends in alpine and subalpine zones by mediating thermal and snow dynamics. Conversely, slope-driven moisture redistribution dominated in subtropical and tropical zones, while temperate ecoregions showed mixed topographic control. Climatic driver analysis identified moisture availability as a key constraint, expressed through pre-monsoon evaporative demand and soil moisture limitation at lower elevations, and through snowmelt-controlled water access in alpine zones. In high-elevation ecoregions, regional climate-phenology correlations were largely overridden by local topography. These findings demonstrate that fine-scale, topography-aware analytical frameworks are essential for interpreting heterogeneous LSP responses in topographically complex mountain landscapes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of climate change on the presence of Neospora caninum: assessing of limiting and optimal temperatures for its development in Aguascalientes, Mexico","authors":"José de Jesús Hernández‑Rangel,&nbsp;Araceli Guadalupe Mendieta-Vázquez,&nbsp;Carlos Cruz‑Vazquez,&nbsp;Arturo Valdivia-Flores,&nbsp;Isabel de Velasco-Reyes,&nbsp;Alejandro Torres-González","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03149-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03149-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The objective of this study was to assessing the limiting and optimal temperatures for the development of the free-living stage of <i>Neospora caninum</i> in Aguascalientes under climate change scenarios. Raster climate data on temperature and rainfall were used to examine historical climate trends (1902–2015) and future projection scenarios (2015–2039) in the region. Existing information on the prevalence of anti-<i>N</i>. <i>caninum</i> antibodies in backyard chickens from Aguascalientes, Mexico, was also considered. Spatial distribution was analyzed using the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) technique. Data processing and geoprocessing were performed with R Project and ArcMap. The distribution analysis of <i>N. caninum</i> showed a widespread presence across the state (78%). The projected climate change scenario indicated a 2.4 °C increase in average maximum temperature and a 1.4 °C increase in minimum temperature, along with a 62 mm reduction in average rainfall. The future scenario suggests that low temperatures from December to February could limit parasite development, while optimal temperature conditions are maintained for nine months, from March to November. Within this period, a four-month span from June to September was identified as high-risk for infection due to the combination of suitable temperature and humidity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}