Transport Policy最新文献_第9页

Do NEV subsidy cuts crowd out housing prices? Evidence from Shanghai, China 新能源汽车补贴的削减会挤压房价吗？证据来自中国上海

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104020

Yuhang Mai

引用次数: 0

Accounting for the uncertainty in an analysis of travel choice experiments using a hybrid choice model 利用混合选择模型分析旅行选择实验中的不确定性

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103981

Amin Moeinaddini , Meeghat Habibian

{"title":"Accounting for the uncertainty in an analysis of travel choice experiments using a hybrid choice model","authors":"Amin Moeinaddini , Meeghat Habibian","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103981","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103981","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To evaluate the impacts of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) policies on traffic congestion and air pollution, citizens' travel behavior should be investigated accurately. The Choice Experiment (CE) approach could be adopted to investigate the behavior of citizens who may be affected by TDM policies. However, respondents might not be sure about their choices, and this uncertainty can be intensified when CEs are used to assess combinations of TDM policies. The choice uncertainty is a degree (or index) that indicates how uncertain a respondent is about their choice, which could result in inaccuracy in predicting transportation behavior. This study focuses on the mode choice uncertainty when there are three TDM policies, including transit development, cordon, and parking pricing, in an analysis of CEs. In this regard, using a face-to-face survey, the car commuters who traveled to a region in the central part of Tehran, Iran, at peak hours for work purposes were questioned about the reduction of car usage as well as the level of certainty about their decision. Afterward, using a hybrid choice model, respondents' choices and their certainty are addressed by considering panel correlations. According to the results, choice certainty depends on the cordon entrance fee, the number of urban trips per day, the value of the cars owned by the individual's household, age, and gender. The results also indicated that increasing the cordon entrance fee and parking cost reduce the choice certainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103981"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145877089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Railway infrastructure construction and spatial distribution of urban economic activities: Evidence based on county-level railway index 铁路基础设施建设与城市经济活动空间分布——基于县级铁路指数的证据

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103993

Mengyu Shi , Yu Shi

引用次数: 0

Beyond bulk freight: How the cross-border rail infrastructure reshapes regional value chains 超越散货：跨境铁路基础设施如何重塑区域价值链

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103992

Yang Liu , Shixuan Tong , Wei Liu

{"title":"Beyond bulk freight: How the cross-border rail infrastructure reshapes regional value chains","authors":"Yang Liu , Shixuan Tong , Wei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid a global shift toward the regionalization of production, large-scale infrastructure projects are expected to catalyze economic integration. However, rigorous evidence on how they reshape complex value chain networks remains scarce. This study proposes a novel methodological framework, the Bootstrap Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model with Difference-in-Differences (BTERGM-DID), to analyze the impact of a major infrastructure project, the China-Laos (C-L) Railway, on the evolution of the China-ASEAN regional value chain (RVC) network. The results indicate that cross-border high-speed rail links between inland regions can reshape the structure of RVC networks, increase links between nodes, and expand central and sub-central regions. Our findings reveal a crucial distinction that the cross-border railway's primary economic function is not that of a traditional resource corridor for bulk commodities. Instead, it operates as a value chain integration corridor, significantly intensifying linkages specifically within time-sensitive manufacturing and tradable service sectors. This research contributes a methodological toolkit for causal network analysis and provides critical evidence on the economic function of modern cross-border infrastructure. We find its value lies not merely in reducing freight costs for commodities, but in catalyzing an ecosystem of supporting services that provides the high-speed, reliable logistics necessary for deep integration into RVC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103992"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How will technical progress in electric vehicles affect carbon marginal abatement costs? A CGE analysis incorporating learning-by-doing 电动汽车的技术进步将如何影响碳边际减排成本？结合实践学习的CGE分析

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104002

Hong-Dian Jiang , Song-Yang Yan , Shu-Xin Zhang , Qiao-Mei Liang

{"title":"How will technical progress in electric vehicles affect carbon marginal abatement costs? A CGE analysis incorporating learning-by-doing","authors":"Hong-Dian Jiang , Song-Yang Yan , Shu-Xin Zhang , Qiao-Mei Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Abatement costs represent a principal concern of mitigating climate change and technical progress pivotally influences abatement costs. This study intended to explore the impact of technical progress in electric vehicle (EV) industry on China's marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), examine the technology diffusion effects on sectoral MACCs, and assess the total abatement costs and cost-saving effects for different scenarios to achieve China's NDC targets. Therefore, this study applied a computable general equilibrium model with a detailed transportation module and incorporated the learning-by-doing-based endogenous technical progress of EV industry. Results revealed that, first, technical progress of EVs can effectively reduce China's MACs. The faster pace of progress and the earlier technical changes result in lower MACs for a specific abatement amount in a given year. For example, the MAC under the high learning-by-doing (H_LBD) scenario would decline by 14.3% at the 40% emission reduction level in 2050. Second, technical progress of EVs can significantly reduce sectoral MACs including in the transportation, petroleum and crude oil industries (decreasing by 27–73% under H_LBD scenario at the 40% abatement level in 2050) but can trigger increases in the MACs of electricity, coal and ferrous sectors (increasing by 4.8–43.3% under H_LBD scenario at the 40% abatement level in 2050). Thus, the emission reductions attained by promoting EVs may be partially counteracted. Third, the government can utilise the differential temporal distribution characteristics of abatement costs and cost savings to appropriately reduce the intensities of the existing abatement policies with the degree of technical progress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 104002"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Causal impacts of demand responsive transit on public transit demand: A spatial assessment framework 需求响应型交通对公共交通需求的因果影响：一个空间评估框架

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104008

Eui-Jin Kim , Dain Oh , Hyunmyung Kim

{"title":"Causal impacts of demand responsive transit on public transit demand: A spatial assessment framework","authors":"Eui-Jin Kim , Dain Oh , Hyunmyung Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Demand-responsive transit (DRT) offers a flexible travel option complementary to the existing fixed-route transit (FRT), improving accessibility and mobility. However, how the adoption of DRT reshapes the new public transit (PT) system, consisting of DRT and FRT, has not yet been sufficiently explored. This study proposes a spatial assessment framework based on causal impact inference to evaluate the impact of DRT on the PT system and performs empirical analysis for DRT service areas in rural areas of Korea. Our framework identifies the spatial area where significant changes in the PT system occur and quantifies the changes in terms of DRT and FRT, respectively. Then, the effects of sociodemographic and built environment factors on changes in the PT system are investigated using regression models. The bias of spatial analysis resulting from the choice of spatial units, known as the modifiable areal unit problem, is identified and addressed by the community-level residential clustering method. The results indicate that approximately half of the residents in the service area experienced a significant increase in PT usage of around 30 %. The service area with a lower population density, a lower proportion of elderly residents, a lower business population, a lower existing bus trip rate, and a higher bus stop density is more likely to benefit from DRT in increasing PT usage. These findings provide valuable insights into devising strategies to introduce new DRT services and evaluate existing ones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 104008"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward lower-emission freight: Grid infrastructure tradeoffs of battery-electric vs fuel cell trucks in New Zealand 迈向低排放货运：新西兰的电池电动卡车与燃料电池卡车的电网基础设施权衡

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103974

Wilson McNeil , Rafaella Canessa , Corinne D. Scown , Jannik Haas , Rebecca Peer

{"title":"Toward lower-emission freight: Grid infrastructure tradeoffs of battery-electric vs fuel cell trucks in New Zealand","authors":"Wilson McNeil , Rafaella Canessa , Corinne D. Scown , Jannik Haas , Rebecca Peer","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trucking is critical for New Zealand's economy as it is responsible for most of the country's freight movement. However, the reliance on diesel-powered trucks disproportionately contributes to carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and air pollutant emissions. Two different technologies have the potential to electrify heavy freight: battery-electric and fuel cell electric trucks; however, it remains unclear which technology will be used to reach New Zealand's goal of net-zero freight transportation emissions by 2050. In this study, we develop an integrated assessment framework that quantifies present-day heavy truck emissions in New Zealand and compares the energy requirement of decarbonization through battery-electric versus fuel cell trucks in 2035 and 2050. This framework includes freight demand, vehicle powertrain, truck operation and charging, and diesel emission models. Further, we quantify the electricity grid infrastructure requirements of the shift to battery-electric and fuel cell truck fleets using the REMix-NZ capacity expansion model. Results show that the current fleet of heavy diesel trucks in New Zealand emits 2.4 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> eq. annually, which could be fully mitigated by 2050 through battery-electric or fuel cell fleets. A full fleet of battery-electric trucks in 2050 would consume 7.2 % of New Zealand's current electricity generation compared to 13.5 % for fuel cell trucks. A sensitivity analysis shows that improved truck design and efficiency can reduce this electricity requirement. Up to 3.6 GW additional capacity would need to be built by 2050, primarily through solar power, to satisfy the energy demand of a battery-electric truck fleet compared to 5.3 GW for a fuel cell fleet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103974"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High-speed rail benchmark train, efficient allocation of factors and industrial transformation and upgrading ——Theoretical model analysis and empirical evidence from 288 cities in China 高铁标杆列车、要素高效配置与产业转型升级——基于中国288个城市的理论模型分析与实证证据

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103991

Peng Wu, Qiong Zhang

{"title":"High-speed rail benchmark train, efficient allocation of factors and industrial transformation and upgrading ——Theoretical model analysis and empirical evidence from 288 cities in China","authors":"Peng Wu, Qiong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a high-quality product from China State Railway Group, HSR “benchmark” trains may exert an positive impact on the industrial upgrading, and the mechanism needs to be further analyzed. Therefore, using Diamond model and commodity pricing-industrial system upgrading model, theoretically deduces how HSR benchmark trains promote industrial transformation and upgrading through efficient factor allocation. Then manually collects data on HSR benchmark trains across 288 prefecture-level cities in China from 2013 to 2023, develops an industrial level indicator system and empirically examines how HSR benchmark trains affect the industrial transformation and upgrading. The results indicate the following: (1) HSR benchmark trains significantly facilitate the upgrading of cities' level of industrial system, and their role in promoting such upgrading exhibits significant heterogeneity across cities. (2) HSR benchmark trains drive the industrial transformation and upgrading by efficiently allocating technology and human capital; (3) The HSR benchmark trains driven evolution of cities' industrial transformation and upgrading generates positive spatial spillover effects, which show significant heterogeneity depending on inter-city distances and the position relative to the “Hu Huanyong Line”. Results show that accelerating the operation of HSR benchmark trains across cities at all levels not only facilitates the efficient allocation of driving technologies and human capital, but also strongly boosts China's high-quality modern industrial system development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103991"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions 德国汽车车队的未来预测——根据二氧化碳性能标准及其对年度车队组成、能源需求和排放的影响，开发库存流量队列模型

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994

Michael Schulthoff, Philipp Anstett, Marvin Scherzinger, Jelto Lange, Martin Kaltschmitt

引用次数: 0

Partial backward integration in maritime supply chain with duopoly carriers: Incentive analysis and decision-making volatility 双寡头海运供应链的部分后向整合：激励分析与决策波动

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104018

Zongbao Zou , Lihao Chen , Haolin Huang , Zihan Chen , Xiangzhi Bu , Xiaofan Lai

{"title":"Partial backward integration in maritime supply chain with duopoly carriers: Incentive analysis and decision-making volatility","authors":"Zongbao Zou , Lihao Chen , Haolin Huang , Zihan Chen , Xiangzhi Bu , Xiaofan Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Considering a maritime supply chain comprising a port and two competing carriers, we analyze their incentive for partial backward integration (PBI), a popular practice in maritime industry, where carriers acquire a portion share of the port. The analysis results reveal that the port is only willing to form PBI with the carrier who has a relatively larger potential market size. We find that, if and only if the non-acquiring carrier’s potential market size is neither too small nor too large, PBI will increase the total profit of the maritime supply chain. In addition, the optimal PBI percentage falls within a moderate range, generally under fifty percent. Moreover, the optimal percentage of PBI increases whenever any one of the competitive intensities, the potential market size of the nonacquiring carrier, or demand uncertainty grows. Interestingly, under the PBI strategy, both the acquiring carrier and the nonacquiring carrier exhibit reduced coefficients of variation in the freight rate when facing demand uncertainty, which indicates that PBI is able to mitigate the impact of market demand uncertainty on pricing decisions for both carriers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 104018"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0