Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"India's growing Ethanol Blending Program and implications of scalable and sustainable Methanol Blending Program for transport sector","authors":"Hardikk Valera, Avinash Kumar Agarwal","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The government of India is exploring the possibility of introducing indigenous fuels into the transport sector to reduce petroleum imports. Considering this, an Ethanol Blending Program was launched. The government of India also outlined a vision for a methanol economy, and vehicle trials were performed to understand the challenges of introducing the Methanol Blending Program in India. A review of the Ethanol Blending Program vs. Methanol Blending Program is done in this study by systematically analysing various aspects such as production, the requirement of critical resources such as water, fuel storage issues, and the ‘food vs. fuel’ debate. India's struggle towards providing Indigenous feedstocks for ethanol production can be easily tackled by producing methanol from various abundant feedstocks such as high-ash coal, biomass, and municipal solid waste. However, coal-based methanol (brown methanol) may lead to a larger carbon footprint involving coal extraction and methanol conversion. Green methanol can be a game-changer for India's economy and greenhouse gas emissions. Ethanol has an edge over methanol since methanol has a wider flammability range and higher toxicity. Significant use of food and water stresses for the national ethanol blending program could be the main bottleneck for extending it further for a longer time in India.</div><div>On the contrary, the methanol blending program would not affect India's food production architecture. Methanol could face challenges in public acceptance as it is perceived as dangerous to the human body. Flex-fuel vehicles must be deployed to implement the highly methanol-concentrated methanol-gasoline blends in parallel with gasoline-fueled vehicles. The government of India launched the Ethanol Blending Program with an ambitious aim of sharply reducing import bills for petroleum. However, it failed to influence India's economy for various reasons, including challenges in upscaling ethanol production from an economic vantage point. These challenges can be overcome by switching to methanol in place of ethanol. Overall, ethanol and methanol can replace gasoline in the transport sector. However, the Ethanol Blending Program has not benefited India in the past few years; and promoting the Methanol Blending Program in India makes sense from economic, strategic, sustainability, and self-sufficiency viewpoints, and this could be potentially a game-changer for the Indian economy. However, the carbon footprint from brown methanol may be high. Thus, green methanol needs to be made available for transport sector. Projects must be implemented in various parts of the country, and technical challenges must be resolved for implementing green methanol economy. Vehicle manufacturers need to develop methanol-compatible engines so that implementing a methanol blending program becomes a reality. Attractive policies need to be put in place to engage OEMs. India should consider phase-wise shift to methanol-fueled ve","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 179-193"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accessing the causality among air transportation, trade openness and GDP: Evidence from a panel of high-income countries","authors":"Sushil Kumar Rai , T. Bangar Raju","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 116-124"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-order moment joint risk spillovers and investment management: Implications for green shipbuilding policy and practice","authors":"Shuiyang Chen ,&nbsp;Bin Meng ,&nbsp;Haibo Kuang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the shipping industry undergoing a profound green transformation, the demand for green financing in the shipbuilding sector has reached unprecedented levels, attracting widespread attention from global investors. We develop an advanced framework for joint risk measurement based on higher-order moments. This framework focuses on risk spillovers and investment management in green bonds and shipbuilding markets. By applying the framework, we reveal the significant role of higher-order moment joint risk information in investment and risk management. This includes accurately assessing substantial risk spillovers between green bonds and shipbuilding markets while overcoming limitations inherent in minimum variance portfolio theory, constructing robust higher-order moment portfolio technique to enhance returns. Our research provides governments with a methodological framework for accurately assessing market risks. It also offers investors interested in green shipbuilding specific trading strategies and investment approaches, which aim to mitigate risk and achieve stable returns in turbulent economic environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 152-167"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of transit-oriented development based on 9D’s approach in developing countries context","authors":"Sriram Mangu ,&nbsp;B. Raghuram Kadali ,&nbsp;Saladi S.V. Subbarao ,&nbsp;Jen-Jia Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) involves meticulously planned urban development, typically around metro stations, to initiate sustainable outcomes. However, this integrated urban and transportation planning requires a thorough evaluation of the station areas, which is currently lacking in the case of developing world. This work seeks to construct a TOD index using the proposed 9-D criteria which includes density, diversity, design, distance to transit, destination accessibility, demand management, desirability of transit, dissonance, and deference to the environment for evaluating and classifying ten station areas of Hyderabad (India) into different TOD types. The indicators were selected via a Delphi survey, which, with the input of experts' opinions, ranked the indicators according to 9 parameters and narrowed the field down to 27 key indicators. A Best-Worst Method (BWM) has been adopted to carry out the evaluation, while k-means clustering technique is used to classify the station areas. The station areas are assessed in terms of transit status, orientation status, and development status. Using this, certain policy suggestions can be devised for each TOD type to ensure more sustainable outcomes. An increase in TOD-ness through a ground-level manipulation of the TOD criteria is more likely to be a greater success in fulfilling the TOD policy goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 138-151"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Freight trip generation modeling for large facilities in urban areas: An empirical Investigation","authors":"Francisco Javier Mafla-Hernández ,&nbsp;Carlos A. Gonzalez-Calderon ,&nbsp;John Jairo Posada-Henao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses a significant gap in the literature regarding freight trip generation in Large Freight Trip Generators (LFTGs) in urban areas and emerging countries. We employ a comprehensive approach using linear and nonlinear models and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques to provide insights into various types of urban generators, including universities, firms, shopping centers, and markets. Our research aims to enhance the understanding of trip generation patterns in these diverse LFTG contexts within a framework of modeling and application in public policies. The freight trip generation models were estimated by analyzing the variables associated with the production and attraction of freight trips in an LFTG. The variables used were specific to the type of establishment, such as the number of employees, the area and extent of the commercial premises, hotels, and universities, and the number of rooms and students, respectively. The 2018 Freight Transportation Study of the Medellin Metropolitan Area (Colombia) played a crucial role in our research, providing the data necessary to estimate 108 models explaining freight trip generation in large facilities across seven categories: universities, hotels, firms, shopping centers, hospitals, buildings, and markets. The results can aid in planning LFTG infrastructure in cities, facilitate vehicle emission analysis, and support decision-making by considering multiple methods for planning, making informed decisions, and opening avenues for further research. Additionally, indicators can be created to align with urban norms in city plans; for example, this research proposes an indicator for the urban planning of LFTGs in cities, which can be continuously measured and evaluated alongside the analysis of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ). This study is the first in South America and opens the door to logistical planning within Latin American cities for LFTGs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 102-115"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the convoy capacity of restricted waterway: The case of the Suez Canal","authors":"Shukai Chen ,&nbsp;Qiang Meng ,&nbsp;Hua Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For some restricted waterways such as the Suez Canal, all arriving ships have to form a convoy and pass through the waterway one by one without overtaking for safety reasons. In this study, we first propose a novel concept of convoy capacity that incorporates the standard unit of ship and estimate convoy capacity by considering ship types, ship sequence, and ship headway between two consecutive ships. If ship headway is fixed, convoy capacity is a constant value given that the ship sequence is aligned optimally. By contrast, convoy capacity becomes an uncertain variable under random ship headway and random ship sequence. To characterize the system state where convoy capacity is achieved under fixed ship headway, we first formulate an integer programming model for the optimal ship sequence. Then, we develop simulation procedures and explore the probability distribution of uncertain convoy capacity. We demonstrate the proposed methods through the Automation Identification System (AIS) data collected from the Suez Canal. The results can provide managerial insights on the performance of convoy system and the effective strategy for ship traffic control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 125-137"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting AV sales in the EU-27 and UK: Insights from Euro emission standards and historical trends","authors":"Anas Alatawneh ,&nbsp;Adam Torok","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The adoption of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) stands as a substantial area of study within the existing literature, explored through various approaches like sales estimation, expert insights, and historical technology adoption patterns. However, most studies have focused on specific countries or individual aspects of AV adoption (e.g., user acceptance, safety, societal impacts), without integrating the interplay between regulatory standards, technological advancements, and historical sales data, leaving a significant gap in understanding the long-term adoption patterns across the entire EU-27 and the UK. In this research, we address this gap by employing a combined approach that utilizes sales estimation and historical adoption patterns of car-related technologies to produce a sequential, long-term prediction of AV adoption across the EU-27 and the UK. This combination is facilitated through examining new vehicle registrations that adhere to European vehicle emission standards between 2001 and 2020, using data from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). The objective is to develop two robust unified predictive models, the first derivative Logistic model and the Gaussian model, explaining historical sales trends and forecasting future vehicle registrations, incorporating Euro 7 features, vehicle electrification, and autonomous driving features. We find that both generated models demonstrate a reasonable to excellent fit with the historical trends and predict the advent of AVs in the market, with the Gaussian model predicting an earlier peak in AV registrations (in 2042) compared to the first derivative Logistic model (in 2044). Furthermore, the Gaussian model projects significantly higher start year sales for AVs (8.6 million new registrations) than the other model's much lower estimation (below 2.5 million new registrations). This research represents the first study to investigate the long-term adoption of AVs across the entire EU-27 and the UK, providing a novel forecasting approach that integrates multiple technological advancements and regulatory influences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 91-101"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Port's industry ecosystem construction: Empirical evidence from China","authors":"Qiqi Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaozhe Hu ,&nbsp;Zhenfu Li ,&nbsp;Yutao Zhou ,&nbsp;Xinli Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Port's Industry Ecosystem (PIDES) is constructed by drawing on the principles of industrial ecology and combining them with the Triple Helix Theory, focusing on the optimal allocation of supporting resources crucial for port development. By interpreting the internal operation mechanisms, external influencing factors, and the functional roles of subsystems, the study provides a theoretical foundation for quantitative research. To promote the deep integration of theory and practice, a methodological framework is developed, incorporating the Six-Helix Comprehensive Evaluation Index (SixHCEI), coupling coordination degree, input-output models, and the natural breakpoint method. Using China as a case study, the research identifies key strategic directions and breakthrough points for the development of PIDES, aiming to provide more targeted support for the sustainable, coordinated development of ports, and offering insights for the formulation of China's \"Transport Power\" strategy. The specific conclusions are as follows. (1) The scale of China's PIDES exhibits the phenomenon of \"coastal areas &gt; Yangtze River basin areas &gt; inland areas.\" (2) The PIDES in coastal areas are relatively complete, and the scale is positively correlated with the efficiency of conversion into economic benefits. However, 82% of the coastal areas must focus on marine environmental protection when developing PIDES. (3) There is greater potential for PIDES development in the Yangtze River Basin, with Hubei and the Chengdu-Chongqing region identified as key breakthrough areas. Strategic deployment should be prioritized in these regions to promote the sustainable development of inland port economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 42-60"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An incentive-based delivery scheme and its effect evaluated via explainable machine learning","authors":"Yang Wang ,&nbsp;Yu Sun ,&nbsp;Jianhui Lai ,&nbsp;Yanyan Chen ,&nbsp;José Holguín-Veras","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current delivery mode acquiesces E-shopping consumers to provide only a single address for delivery, despite their potential to have multiple addresses available. Inspired by this, we propose a new delivery mode with an economic incentive scheme to encourage consumers to provide more addresses and empower the delivery operator to determine the final delivery address following a certain optimization criteria. To examine the incentive's effect, we conducted a survey. The survey reveals a substantial, near-linear impact on promoting multiple address provision through the incentive, resulting in a 32% increase in consumers providing additional addresses. We develop an eXtreme Gradient Boosting model, which outperformed Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine, to explore the relationship between address provision decision and E-shopping behavior. Augmented by Shapley Additive Explanations, the model can interpret how both the incentive and E-shopping behavior influence address provision. In addition to the incentive, factors such as the number of available addresses and the average price of the parcel also significantly influence the decision-making process for providing delivery addresses. The insights extracted from this study can provide a foundation for policymakers to establish more practical delivery management policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"162 ","pages":"Pages 559-574"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143137328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can a bottleneck capacity enhancement policy postpone infrastructure network collapse?","authors":"Tianlei Zhu ,&nbsp;Xin Yang ,&nbsp;Zhiao Ma ,&nbsp;Jianxi Gao ,&nbsp;Jianjun Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the operational processes of infrastructure networks, the occurrence of supply-demand imbalances can precipitate component overloads, and the rupture of critical bottlenecks may culminate in the collapse of the entire network. Consequently, it is important to comprehend the characteristics of these critical bottlenecks under diverse circumstances. This paper examines directed transportation infrastructure networks as a case study and, drawing upon percolation theory, precisely identifies the network's critical bottlenecks. It also considers the various perturbations or enhancement scenarios these bottlenecks might encounter in reality. A comprehensive analysis is conducted on the propagation characteristics of both strong and weak bottlenecks under different scenarios, as well as changes in the network's performance. Additionally, this study categorizes the modes of bottleneck propagation within the network into five distinct types: continuous, dispersed, coalescing, jumping, and spanning propagation. Our findings reveal that applying disturbances to the network's strong and weak bottlenecks can precipitate the premature collapse of the network. However, enhancing the capacity of these bottlenecks leads to uncertain outcomes—sometimes delaying and other times hastening the network collapse. The conclusions derived from this research not only offer guidance for the routine maintenance of infrastructure networks but also provide theoretical support for the improvement of such networks, thereby ensuring their high-performance and normal operation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}