Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"An empirical analysis framework to evaluate the impact of residential electric vehicles on power grid","authors":"An Jiang ,&nbsp;Jiehong Qiu ,&nbsp;Aiyuan Li ,&nbsp;Guangnan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes an empirical analysis framework to model the charging behavior of electric vehicles (EVs) and estimate the impact on power grid. This method relies solely on residential charging data and is universally applicable to power grids in different regions. Moreover, the approach enables the simulation of the charging demand under varying EV ownership rate levels and the calculation of the maximum number of EVs that a given area can support without overloading the power grid. As a case study, we collect data on residential charging behavior from a city in Central China to estimate model parameters. Combining with load data, we find that even with a 5 % ownership rate, EVs will not significantly burden the grid load on most days throughout the year or during off-peak hours of the day. However, attention must be given to peak months and peak hours of the day. Additionally, we analyze the ownership rate of EVs that the city can sustain and determine that, with 6 % of the available capacity of distribution transformers, the city can accommodate EVs for 8.12 % of its population. This paper contributes to the engineering management of EVs charging, EVs promotion strategies, and the stability of power grid.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103757"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Electricity demand forecasting in green ports: Modelling and future research directions","authors":"Adrian Carrillo-Galvez ,&nbsp;Felipe do Carmo ,&nbsp;Tiago Soares ,&nbsp;Zenaida Mourão ,&nbsp;Ilia Ponomarev ,&nbsp;João Araújo ,&nbsp;Eduardo Bandeira","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, there has been growing attention on the decarbonisation of maritime transport, particularly regarding the landside operations at ports. This has spurred the development and implementation of strategies and policies aimed at enhancing the environmental performance of port activities. Among these strategies, the electrification of port infrastructure is emerging as a potential industry standard for the future. However, there remains a significant gap in understanding the patterns of electricity consumption in ports and how to forecast them accurately. To address this gap, this paper provides a review of the current literature on electricity demand in ports, examining practical applications, methodologies employed, and their key limitations. The findings indicate that, despite its importance in supporting the electrification process, electricity demand forecasting in ports has not received substantial attention in either industry or academic research, and there are no clearly established policies to support port authorities in obtaining the necessary data. Finally, the paper outlines potential directions for future research and how port authorities or local government agencies can contribute to these efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 1012-1024"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144714567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incentive structures for the purchase of electric vehicles in Germany","authors":"Arian Kühlert ,&nbsp;Paul Frederik Schulz-Greve ,&nbsp;Jan Christian Schlüter","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A quasi natural experiment is exploited to examine the relationship between bonus payments or subsidies and the share of electric vehicles in new registrations. The difference-in-differences approach makes a distinction between the instrument's causal effect and the magnitude of the subsidy's influence. Germany, France, Italy, and Austria implemented a direct purchase premium for Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in 2016 and repeatedly adjusted the subsidies amount over the years. This setting provides the opportunity to examine an average effect of the premiums on the market share of electric cars in these countries and add this case study to the existing literature. The estimated Average Treatment Effect (ATE) suggests that, on average, the Public Support for Electric Vehicles (PSEV) policies are associated with a 2.04 percentage point increase in the Battery Electric Vehicle Market Share Rate (BEVMSR) across the treated countries. This effect can be interpreted causally due to the robustness checks performed and the validation of the parallel trend assumption. We cannot find statistically significant results for the public support for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PSPHEV). Results from a survey that investigates the German population's acceptance of changes in the design of the environmental bonus complement the difference-in-difference approach of this study with insights on how to make the environmental bonus as efficient as possible in terms of a potential increase in BEVMSR. By removing the premium for hybrid-only vehicles, it was found that the adoption of electric vehicles might be sped up using the stated-choice approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103729"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing maritime cost Analysis: Identifying opportunities for cross-industry insights","authors":"Tingting Han ,&nbsp;Yulai Wan ,&nbsp;Dong Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cost analysis is a fundamental component in the research of transportation sectors. While extensive cost studies have been conducted in the fields of air, rail, and road transportation, there is a noticeable lack of reviews in the domain of maritime transportation. This study addresses this gap by reviewing and summarizing cost studies conducted in the maritime transportation sector over the past few decades. We categorize cost models in maritime transportation into two groups: item-based cost formulation and aggregated cost formulation. Drawing from the wealth of cost studies in air transportation and recognizing its similarities with maritime transportation, we employ it as a reference point to uncover valuable insights applicable to the maritime industry. Specifically, we compare differences in research questions, cost formulations, and their application scenarios. By conducting this comparative analysis, we identify areas where maritime transportation can adapt and benefit from the insights gained in air transportation cost studies. Furthermore, this study outlines potential research and application directions for maritime cost analysis based on the findings. By highlighting the potential for cross-industry learning, this review serves as a valuable reference for scholars and industry practitioners seeking to delve deeper into insights derived from cost studies in the maritime transportation sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 1050-1063"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nonlinear risk dynamics and strategic Management: Insights for LNG shipping policy and practice","authors":"Meng Bin ,&nbsp;Chen Shuiyang ,&nbsp;Dong Jingjing","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical risks (GPR) pose a critical and immediate challenge to the LNG shipping industry. This study employs nonlinear quantile causality tests and multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression to examine the coupling effects of GPR on the LNG freight and charter markets under varying market conditions. The robustness of the results is verified using multivariate quantile regression and kernel-based regularized least squares. The empirical findings reveal that GPR has significant nonlinear and asymmetric causal effects on the LNG freight and charter markets, with risks transferring from GPR to the markets. Under most normal market conditions, low-level geopolitical risks exhibit an insignificant impact on LNG spot freight market, short-term charter market, and long-term charter market. Under extreme market conditions at high quantiles, GPR significantly positively impacts all LNG freight and charter markets, with variations depending on ship types. GPR has a greater influence on small ships and the short-term charter market, indicating that larger ships and longer charter durations better mitigate geopolitical risks. The findings offer valuable insights to inform policy and management practice for shipowners and charterers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103752"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating vertiports into Australian airports - A comparative literature review of regulatory frameworks from CASA, FAA, and EASA","authors":"Salim Hijazeen ,&nbsp;Tommy King-Yin Cheung ,&nbsp;Zheng Lei ,&nbsp;Jennifer A. Hayward","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper systematically evaluates the regulatory frameworks for integrating vertiport infrastructure to support Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) within Australia's airport ecosystem. Unlike the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which have issued detailed vertiport regulations, including emergency procedures and infrastructure compatibility for battery-powered AAM, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) approach remains high-level. It is still largely derived from helicopter regulations. By conducting a comparative analysis of CASA, the FAA, and the EASA, the study identifies specific regulatory gaps in CASA's framework, particularly concerning vertiport design, operational safety, and infrastructure for emerging propulsion technologies like hydrogen power. To address these gaps, the paper recommends that CASA (i) adopt scalable vertiport layout and design standards, (ii) introduce performance-based criteria for infrastructure compatibility with battery-electric and hydrogen propulsion systems, and (iii) establish clearer integration protocols for AAM within existing commercial airport environments. The findings further highlight that, while CASA has expressed a commitment to regulatory innovation, the pace of implementation remains slow in comparison to the urgency of AAM deployment. Accelerating the adoption of international best practices from the FAA and EASA would allow CASA to address the challenges of vertiport integration and strengthen itself as a global leader in aviation regulatory reform.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103754"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyzing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions from road transportation in four Chinese urban agglomerations: An empirical case study","authors":"Zeyuan Tian ,&nbsp;Yulin Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhi Dong ,&nbsp;Daniel Jian Sun ,&nbsp;Zhiyu Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road transportation has emerged as a major source of carbon emissions contributing to climate change nowadays. Despite extensive research on carbon emissions from road transportation (CRT), few studies focused on comparative analysis of CRT at both the urban agglomeration and city levels, particularly considering variations in development levels. To address this gap, this paper investigates CRT from 65 cities within the four Chinese urban agglomerations—Lanxi, Guanzhong Plain, Central Plain, and Yangtze River Delta— using a top-down framework based upon mode-specific energy consumption intensity. Spatiotemporal characteristics of (per capita) CRT along with the contributing factors are analyzed in which rapid CRT growth with significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity are revealed to form spatial clusters. Based on the contributing factors analysis, at the urban agglomeration level, key factors influencing road transport emissions in the Yangtze River Delta and Central Plain urban agglomerations show significant differences across different periods, reflecting the complex interactions among multiple driving mechanisms. At the city level, the influence factors driving emissions exhibit nuanced spatiotemporal non-stationarity among cities. Moreover, variations in the impact extents of key factors are demonstrated, revealing the dynamic evolution of carbon emission mechanism in different periods and spatial scales. This study offers valuable guidance for policymakers in formulating differentiated mitigation strategies to support low-carbon transport transitions in diverse urban agglomerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103756"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prompting pickup from parcel lockers: A reward-punishment strategy","authors":"Yang Wang ,&nbsp;Ruixue Yang ,&nbsp;Yu Xiao ,&nbsp;Jianhui Lai ,&nbsp;José Holguín-Veras","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Parcel lockers can effectively enhance last-mile delivery by providing carriers and posts automation and parcel consolidation in the face of growing parcel volumes. However, a backlog can develop when parcels remain in lockers for extended periods. To address this issue, we propose a reward-punishment strategy to incentivize prompt parcel collection. A survey was conducted to evaluate incentives in the form of monetary rewards and overtime charges. Using the survey data, a Cox Proportional Hazard Regression model was developed to analyze parcel survival in lockers over time. Results indicate that the proposed strategy significantly encourages prompt collection of parcels. However, overtime charges can act as a double-edged sword, prompting early collection yet potentially dissuading some customers. To model customer retention while considering the impact of overtime charges, a Binary Logit choice model was developed. Additionally, a two-step clustering method was employed to categorize customers based on their sensitivity to the proposed strategy. Elderly retired customers purchasing daily necessities were the most responsive, while young non-regular employees and students showed minimal response. These models and associated findings can facilitate the development of more practical incentive implementations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 986-995"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144702969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Smart growth principles and airport-centered TOD: A framework for sustainable site selection","authors":"Wann-Ming Wey,&nbsp;Ti-Ching Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transit-oriented development (TOD) model has emerged as an innovative transport-planning strategy for enhancing urban quality of life. Evidence suggests that integrating smart growth principles into TOD can further promote a healthier, more livable, and sustainable urban environment.</div><div>This study develops a method-oriented framework that incorporates smart growth principles into urban transportation planning strategies and employs objective scientific methods for empirical analysis. The Taoyuan Airport Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system in Taiwan serves as the case study. A multicriteria analysis (MCA) was conducted to assess TOD planning performance. First, a literature review was used to identify and classify smart growth principles. Then, six experts evaluated the relative importance of these principles. Finally, station sites along the Taoyuan Airport MRT were selected to demonstrate the validity and advantages of the proposed methodological approach.</div><div>To identify the most suitable station site, we applied a model combining the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and data envelopment analysis with the assurance region approach. The proposed method and framework can be applied to other cities or development projects aiming to enhance urban sustainability and livability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103745"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public transit in transition: The “new normal” or a return to normal?","authors":"Parsa Pezeshknejad ,&nbsp;Matthew Palm ,&nbsp;Dana Rowangould","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Covid-19 pandemic led to precipitous reductions in transit ridership. As the pandemic has subsided, transit use has remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Understanding how to attract riders to transit is critical to sustain transit viability in the long term. In the first part of this paper, we evaluate who had returned to transit in Fall 2022, factors affecting the decision to use transit, and intentions for future transit use using a panel survey collected in two Canadian cities as the pandemic was waning. Most transit riders indicated that the pandemic no longer affected their daily lives but that its effects were here to stay. While many transit riders had fully returned to transit, about half intended to use transit less frequently than they did before the pandemic and about 10 % did not intend to return at all. Pandemic-era factors such as telecommuting and increased vehicle access contributed to declining ridership. At the same time, high quality transit service continued to be an important determinant of the choice to use transit regardless of when transit riders returned or whether they planned to return. The findings of the Canadian survey echo results from prior research conducted in Canada and elsewhere, raising questions about transit agency efforts to reverse declining ridership and the potential for long-lasting changes to Canadian public transit systems. In the second part of this study, we track Canadian transit providers' efforts to sustain the viability of transit systems during and after the pandemic using trends in transit service, use, costs, and revenue. In Canada a large influx of federal funds initially buffered the financial impacts of the pandemic. Trends suggest that this has allowed transit providers to maintain or minimally reduce transit service to try to reverse ridership declines. Transit agencies experienced a gradual but partial recovery of ridership, differing from growing ridership observed from 2011 to 2019. Additionally, as federal funds declined some reported facing funding gaps. Persistent reductions in ridership, fare recovery, and operational efficiencies highlight ongoing challenges to transit agencies. Taken together, our analysis highlights the potential for long-lasting change in transit ridership and transit service provision models in Canada. In light of the critical mobility that transit systems provide for those who rely on it, transit agencies and policy makers may seek to return to normal by securing sustained funding and rebuilding ridership through service improvements and service updates that meet the needs of today's riders and coordinated land use planning. For some agencies, the altered transit landscape may prompt consideration of new operational models, including vehicle right-sizing and innovative shared mobility models. The best path forward depends on each region's context and objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 1076-1089"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}