转型中的公共交通:“新常态”还是回归常态?

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Parsa Pezeshknejad , Matthew Palm , Dana Rowangould
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019冠状病毒病大流行导致过境客流量急剧减少。随着大流行的消退,过境使用仍远低于大流行前的水平。了解如何吸引乘客乘坐公共交通对于维持公共交通的长期可行性至关重要。在本文的第一部分中,我们通过在加拿大两个城市收集的小组调查,评估了2022年秋季返回过境的人员,影响使用过境决定的因素,以及未来使用过境的意图。大多数公交乘客表示,疫情不再影响他们的日常生活,但其影响将持续下去。虽然许多公共交通乘客已经完全恢复使用公共交通,但约有一半的人打算比大流行前更少地使用公共交通,约10%的人根本不打算返回。大流行时期的因素,如远程办公和车辆通行的增加,导致乘客人数下降。与此同时,高质量的公共交通服务仍然是选择使用公共交通的一个重要决定因素,无论公共交通乘客何时返回或是否计划返回。加拿大的调查结果与之前在加拿大和其他地方进行的研究结果相呼应,对交通机构扭转客流量下降的努力以及加拿大公共交通系统长期变化的潜力提出了质疑。在本研究的第二部分中,我们利用交通服务、使用、成本和收入的趋势,跟踪加拿大交通服务提供者在大流行期间和之后维持交通系统可行性的努力。在加拿大,大量联邦资金的流入最初缓冲了大流行的财政影响。趋势表明,这使得公交供应商能够维持或最低限度地减少公交服务,以试图扭转客流量下降的趋势。与2011年至2019年观察到的客流量增长不同,公交机构的客流量经历了逐步但部分的恢复。此外,随着联邦资金的减少,一些报告面临资金缺口。客流量、票价回收和运营效率的持续下降凸显了运输机构面临的持续挑战。综上所述,我们的分析强调了加拿大公共交通客流量和公共交通服务提供模式长期变化的潜力。鉴于公共交通系统为那些依赖它的人提供的关键机动性,公共交通机构和政策制定者可能会寻求恢复正常,通过改善和更新服务来确保持续的资金和重建乘客,以满足当今乘客的需求,并协调土地使用规划。对于一些机构来说,交通格局的改变可能会促使他们考虑新的运营模式,包括车辆的适当大小和创新的共享交通模式。最佳的前进道路取决于每个区域的背景和目标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public transit in transition: The “new normal” or a return to normal?
The Covid-19 pandemic led to precipitous reductions in transit ridership. As the pandemic has subsided, transit use has remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Understanding how to attract riders to transit is critical to sustain transit viability in the long term. In the first part of this paper, we evaluate who had returned to transit in Fall 2022, factors affecting the decision to use transit, and intentions for future transit use using a panel survey collected in two Canadian cities as the pandemic was waning. Most transit riders indicated that the pandemic no longer affected their daily lives but that its effects were here to stay. While many transit riders had fully returned to transit, about half intended to use transit less frequently than they did before the pandemic and about 10 % did not intend to return at all. Pandemic-era factors such as telecommuting and increased vehicle access contributed to declining ridership. At the same time, high quality transit service continued to be an important determinant of the choice to use transit regardless of when transit riders returned or whether they planned to return. The findings of the Canadian survey echo results from prior research conducted in Canada and elsewhere, raising questions about transit agency efforts to reverse declining ridership and the potential for long-lasting changes to Canadian public transit systems. In the second part of this study, we track Canadian transit providers' efforts to sustain the viability of transit systems during and after the pandemic using trends in transit service, use, costs, and revenue. In Canada a large influx of federal funds initially buffered the financial impacts of the pandemic. Trends suggest that this has allowed transit providers to maintain or minimally reduce transit service to try to reverse ridership declines. Transit agencies experienced a gradual but partial recovery of ridership, differing from growing ridership observed from 2011 to 2019. Additionally, as federal funds declined some reported facing funding gaps. Persistent reductions in ridership, fare recovery, and operational efficiencies highlight ongoing challenges to transit agencies. Taken together, our analysis highlights the potential for long-lasting change in transit ridership and transit service provision models in Canada. In light of the critical mobility that transit systems provide for those who rely on it, transit agencies and policy makers may seek to return to normal by securing sustained funding and rebuilding ridership through service improvements and service updates that meet the needs of today's riders and coordinated land use planning. For some agencies, the altered transit landscape may prompt consideration of new operational models, including vehicle right-sizing and innovative shared mobility models. The best path forward depends on each region's context and objectives.
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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