An empirical analysis framework to evaluate the impact of residential electric vehicles on power grid

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.038

An Jiang , Jiehong Qiu , Aiyuan Li , Guangnan Zhang

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Abstract

This paper proposes an empirical analysis framework to model the charging behavior of electric vehicles (EVs) and estimate the impact on power grid. This method relies solely on residential charging data and is universally applicable to power grids in different regions. Moreover, the approach enables the simulation of the charging demand under varying EV ownership rate levels and the calculation of the maximum number of EVs that a given area can support without overloading the power grid. As a case study, we collect data on residential charging behavior from a city in Central China to estimate model parameters. Combining with load data, we find that even with a 5 % ownership rate, EVs will not significantly burden the grid load on most days throughout the year or during off-peak hours of the day. However, attention must be given to peak months and peak hours of the day. Additionally, we analyze the ownership rate of EVs that the city can sustain and determine that, with 6 % of the available capacity of distribution transformers, the city can accommodate EVs for 8.12 % of its population. This paper contributes to the engineering management of EVs charging, EVs promotion strategies, and the stability of power grid.

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住宅电动汽车对电网影响的实证分析框架

本文提出了一个实证分析框架，用于对电动汽车充电行为进行建模并估计其对电网的影响。该方法仅依赖于居民充电数据，普遍适用于不同地区的电网。此外，该方法能够模拟不同电动汽车拥有率水平下的充电需求，并计算给定区域在不使电网过载的情况下可以支持的最大电动汽车数量。作为案例研究，我们收集了中国中部某城市居民充电行为的数据来估计模型参数。结合负载数据，我们发现即使拥有5%的拥有率，电动汽车也不会在全年的大部分时间或一天中的非高峰时段显著增加电网负荷。然而，必须注意高峰月份和高峰时段。此外，我们分析了该市可以维持的电动汽车拥有率，并确定在6%的配电变压器可用容量下，该市可以容纳8.12%的人口的电动汽车。本文对电动汽车充电的工程管理、电动汽车推广策略以及电网的稳定性都有一定的参考价值。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.